The Fiscal Treaty Yes or No

Sully wrote: »

With respect, this is not a general election. The country is in an awful state and the Irish people were well warned that the agreement with the IMF/EU for bailout was going to be kept and that times were going to be hard. That is not to say that this Government have broken some promises, or done things that people (me included) are unhappy with. But they are much better then Fianna Fail, and there is absolutely no alternative in Ireland at the moment.

I fully agree people should voice their anger and disappointment at the government if your unhappy. I am one of many who have spoken to their representatives in meetings and raised many issues.

But this referendum has nothing to do with party politics. It is a very simple treaty that the No side are making seem far worse, and adding items that have absolutely nothing to do with this treaty. This treaty is about greater fiscal controls based on rules and figures we already agreed to. Its about having access to a bailout mechanism should we need it. That, whether we hate it or not, is certainty and stability. A vote No puts us in uncharted waters and into an unknown territory. Fact.

People need to educate themselves on this treaty without just looking at the Yes camp and No camps campaign material. Don't just take my word for it. Both will say what it takes to get your vote. If you read Independent sources such as the businesses small, medium and large who have educated themselves and made their feelings known publicly. If you read the various business and employers/employee groups views. If you read decent well respect and well known economists, not cowboy unknown economists who just blog about the economy and have no real credibility, who have made their views known. All of these people are much more honest and unbiased and know their stuff. Its their business to know whether the treaty is good for them or not. If you read these, then you have a better understanding and if not you can go onto say the Politics Forum and ask questions where people can point out the answers and back them up with facts that stack up.

Don't vote No just because your pissed with the government. If you don't trust them, research somewhere else for facts on whether the treaty is good or bad. Make your vote count to something, not just be wasted on an anti-government vote. Think of the future and not just the immediate future and government.

Remember - the Germans wont be the people deciding whether or not we breached the fiscal rules. They can not dictate to Ireland. They do not have the power. The only powers that can, are the EU Courts. The Germans may have took charge and left everyone at the side to get the EU the way they think it should be, but they are not the ones calling the shots. If they were, we wouldn't be having this referendum. Don't let those big countries ignore the fiscal rules they are bound to, and Vote Yes to the Fiscal Treaty which just adds new protections to prevent the abuse of the fiscal rules we already have introduced and that wont go away if we Vote No.

This isn't an Austerity Treaty. The No side are pointing at figures saying that's whats causing the Austerity and that's part of the treaty. Thats not correct. The figures, and only the actual accurate ones and not the ones they tend to pluck from the sky, they speak about are part of a pact we already have introduced and are bound by. So taking the advise and voting no wont make any difference - we will still have Austerity, if not more. Because we already have those rules on stricter spending in force, before this treaty.

There are plenty of things in Europe that we don't have the same. Corporation Tax being one of them. This treaty has nothing to do with corporation tax, or any form of taxation. If we Vote No, or if we Vote Yes, there is no difference to the level of protection on the corporation tax. A vote either way makes absolutely no difference. We got guarantees on this in the Lisbon treaty, after being told by the No side that treaty was going to bring Ireland into further despair and hardship, with abortion and conception and with our corporation tax being lost. All lies, just to get you to vote against the government. That was proven, and its time people woke up and spotted the lies in this campaign.

Sully wrote: »

lambcutlet wrote: »

Ok so as a person with no background in this, this is what seems to be the message: we had rules already in place with a treaty in relation to the 3% GDP and our FF Government didn't follow it, Europe didn't intervene until it was too late, there was no consequence for the FF Governemnt except big payouts, so now they now want us to follow a treaty with not going beyond 0.5% GDP. This new treaty will mean that although we're already struggling to come in line with the 3% GDP, we can have more cutbacks to be under 0.5% GDP. . . . . . doesn't seem like the answer to me. I work with adults with a severe and profound intellectual disability and the cuts so far are already a step too far. So I'll be voting no. This current Government seems to be using the same bullying tactics as with the previous treaty. Their scare tactics are so un professional and I have no confidence in them now (and I voted FG).

You say that the scare tactics are from the government? But the government are only telling you the truth - a No vote does put us into uncharted waters and unknown territory. Because if we do need a bailout after voting No, nobody is 100% sure where we will get it. In fact, nobody has any real concrete level of where we could get it. The IMF - looking unlikely, a former IMF director said so and the IMF themselves pulled away from claims saying they would. If they did, would the interest rates be higher? What terms would be attached to such a bailout? The Markets - Same problem as going with the IMF, if they were to lend to us (and note that our credit rating will drop if we vote No, a fact by the rating agency themselves confirmed) the rate would be very high as cost of borrowing is already high. Other funds such as pensions / wealth tax - no idea how much money, no idea how long it would take to get, no idea if its enough, etc.

The No side say its going to bring in more austerity and quote all these figures. Just like you did above, you were led to believe the treaty forces 0.5% - but this has been in place since 2005. Plenty of economists (such as Seamus Coffey) have shown the facts that we were well able to do this before, its not that hard and we could continue to do so in the future.

The 3% is the general government deficit, and is the same in the Treaty as in the current Stability & Growth Pact. The 0.5% 'structural deficit' rule is separate from the 3% general deficit rule, and is also in the current Stability & Growth Pact.

A further point, as well, which people seem to miss, is that the fiscal rules which can trigger an excessive deficit procedure are the 3% deficit and 60% debt rules. The 'structural deficit' rule does not trigger an excessive deficit procedure if breached - it is intended to trigger a domestic 'correction mechanism'.

So, you were misinformed. You got those figures and from what I can see panicked a little and thought that this meant even more hardship for the country as a result of this treaty alone. But that's not even remotely true. If you vote No, its the same thing. The rules the No side talk about will still be there. That's pure scaremongering and lies. And you don't trust the government?

As I said above though, in relation to the both parties, they are doing what they said they would be doing. But I don't think people paid much attention in the election and just assumed that FG & Labour would walk in and solve everything in a year without any cuts or pain. A year and a bit later, the country IS improving. We are seeing growth, meeting all targets in the IMF/EU agreement, looking at heading back to the markets after a good trial, thousands of jobs created, unemployment steadying, job losses slowing down (not going to be avoided as companies will make cut backs after going a little wild in the good times), income tax remained untouched (as promised), the government actually took a pay cut when they were first elected (not good enough and more needed, I agree) which is more than other politicians did in the past, cut down on excessive pensions going forward (seems that those who left are back in again, which needs to be sorted) and so on. Things have improved, things are on the up, but cuts and austerity will continue as promises for the foreseeable future no matter which way we vote. The government are far from perfect, but they are far from the worst. Its not the first time they were voted into government in a recession and financial disaster and they got us out of it in the past, and they will get us out of it now. It takes time, not a year!

dvpower wrote: »

Most people dont balance their budgets. Most people borrow large sums of money to buy a home and save large sums to fund retirement.