Winter 2011/2012

derekon · 19-09-2011 8:58pm

jimmy.d wrote: »

SSW hasn't occurred over the past 2 years. There have been polar votices that have brought snowy conditions to the UK but there wasn't reversal. As i explained in many other posts last winter, we had a bad winter because of Atmospheric Angular Momentum. This causes the Jest Stream (which usually provides us with out moist mild climate) to shift farther south than normal. With the Jet further south, this allows high pressure to build behind the Jet (which is North of the Jet) and the Low Pressure systems sink further south. This means the moist mild weather associated with the Atlantic is squeezed over Biscay and doesn't hit us. The high pressure north of the Jet Stream is known usually as the Greenland High. Once this become established it can take months for it to break down (which is what happened last November and December, finally broke down over Christmas).

As the Greenland High is sitting in place, this allows another area of High Pressure to form over Scandinavia and Mainland Europe. This effectively means the UK is sandwiched between 2 High Pressures, 1 to the West and 1 to the East. This then allows cold arctic air to flow freely from Siberia over the UK. This cold dry air blows over the North Sea, which is at its warmest point in winter and picks up moisture by the bucket load.

This moisture forms thunder cells with heavy precipitation and leads to "streamers", which are constant showers blowing in off the east coast. This is what happened last winter and could happen again but you CANNOT predict that at this range at all. The polar vortices (sometimes called Polar Lows) will only hit the UK if the blocking effect is taking place over Greenland and Scandinavia. Otherwise they die out or flow over Scandinavia.

The DAM line you refer to is actually 528. This is simply a marker and not an actual certainty. If you see the DAM line of 528 you will notice that the precipitation is usually snowy but not always. You need more than pressure to generate snow. The preferred values are 522 and below for a snow event. 528 is often referred to as marginal. Which basically means sleet on the coasts and snow on the hills.

You will tend to find that a northerly blast (Arctic) will mainly affect the North and West of the UK, streaming down through the midlands with little hitting the North and East and an Easterly will mainly affect the East Coast stretching to about the Midlands again.

Don't over stress yourselves with this forecast. It will be changed 2-3 times between now and October. Prepare yourselves for the worst anyways, you should really do this without a forecast.

RUDDD: Didn't realise you posted a second post above RE SST's. Your right, this has a impact on our weather but recent research has shown that the Sea only accounts for about a 10% influence on weather patterns. You need to look more at the Atmosphere and Sun outpu

Hi Jimmy D, thanks for the post - quite interesting about the DAM lines etc...however I cannot but help thinking that you were replying to someone on a UK forum however your post accidentally ended up over on the boards.ie website in Ireland! This is due to (a) your references to your posts last winter...forgive me but I cannot remember your posts! and (b) your referencing of the UK with no comment whatsoever of the beautiful emerald isle to its west !

gothwalk · 19-09-2011 9:01pm

Just saw an interesting report of record snowfall for September in the Swiss ski resort of St Moritz.

http://www.expatica.com/ch/news/swiss-news/record-snowfall-in-switzerland-45-cm-in-st-moritz_176497.html

45cm overnight Sunday to Monday.

NIALL D · 19-09-2011 9:24pm

gothwalk wrote: »

Just saw an interesting report of record snowfall for September in the Swiss ski resort of St Moritz.

http://www.expatica.com/ch/news/swiss-news/record-snowfall-in-switzerland-45-cm-in-st-moritz_176497.html

45cm overnight Sunday to Monday.

wow , thats bloody crazy aint it :eek:

jimmy.d · 19-09-2011 11:25pm

derekon wrote: »

Hi Jimmy D, thanks for the post - quite interesting about the DAM lines etc...however I cannot but help thinking that you were replying to someone on a UK forum however your post accidentally ended up over on the boards.ie website in Ireland! This is due to (a) your references to your posts last winter...forgive me but I cannot remember your posts! and (b) your referencing of the UK with no comment whatsoever of the beautiful emerald isle to its west !

no i just picked that up of the internet i live in wex ya it would be better if ireland was included

nacho libre · 19-09-2011 11:59pm

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Winter update on Netweather http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

God I hope this turns out to be true. i'd give anything for another "Greenland Express" this winter

delw · 20-09-2011 12:45am

nacho libre wrote: »

God I hope this turns out to be true. i'd give anything for another "Greenland Express" this winter

careful nacho you'll have the anti winter people after you

Speak Now · 20-09-2011 8:14am

derekon wrote: »

Hi Jimmy D, thanks for the post - quite interesting about the DAM lines etc...however I cannot but help thinking that you were replying to someone on a UK forum however your post accidentally ended up over on the boards.ie website in Ireland! This is due to (a) your references to your posts last winter...forgive me but I cannot remember your posts! and (b) your referencing of the UK with no comment whatsoever of the beautiful emerald isle to its west !

West of the UK, hmmmm wonder where that could be ....

Speak Now · 20-09-2011 8:20am

Net Weathers latest November/December Temp forecasts

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 20-09-2011 8:44am

I would be very interested to hear Herr Cranium's thoughts on this one ! :pac:

pauldry · 20-09-2011 4:56pm

bb1234567 wrote: »

whats mt?

god

derekon · 20-09-2011 9:23pm

jimmy.d wrote: »

no i just picked that up of the internet i live in wex ya it would be better if ireland was included

Thanks for the clarification Jimmy !

M.T. Cranium · 21-09-2011 1:29am

My thoughts are, it is getting close to the time where I should be starting to think about beginning the process of looking into what I need to do to get ready to prepare to begin to ... review the winter. That all took too long.

The only thing I can say this early is that a winter forecast will be coming along from my research program about a month from now. I've always thought of the first of November as being the target date for a long-range forecast. With so many others going much earlier, I suppose I should think about moving up my schedule on this, but I really like to review mid-October conditions around the arctic and subarctic to get a feel for how the season is evolving. Mid-September in the arctic, except perhaps around the north pole, is still the tail end of the thaw season.

My methods don't entirely discount solar variations year to year and I certainly buy into the "Dalton-like low solar interlude" theory that almost everyone else seems to buy into, but when you look at year to year variations in temperature in the Maunder, Dalton and other slowdown periods you find a few milder winters thrown into the mix, so, given that solar activity seems to be picking up towards perhaps a moderate solar peak in 2012-13, I am not really convinced that another very cold winter is a done deal. Also, be aware that the retrograde index which worked out as a key part of last winter's forecast shows an earlier development of blocking by 2-3 weeks, which may mean that the downward trend that we saw after mid-November last winter could come in late October this year. And with cases of early winter onslaughts, you often see a rebound especially around the warmer parts of other natural cycles in play.

So if you want a forecast of the forecast, it may look like this -- cold start, early if perhaps unsustained snows, milder by Christmas if not before, then becoming highly variable with high probability of another cold blocking period in the heart of the winter season. That's the default prediction from just looking at one or two main factors and without considering a lot of other variables. As always, I don't try to do this all in isolation, I take in whatever I can from all sources and try to figure out what it means in terms of the research variables as well as what it means in isolation.

One really good upgrade to my potential methodology is that I now have the full 240-year daily CET data base on my home computer, in addition to what I had for several years previously, the 353-year monthly data base. Who knows where this may lead, because all the research I have done on the daily scale for North America has yet to be churned out for the CET, and I have only a few random sample studies that seemed to indicate similar trends but not the full analysis.

While there's nothing subjective involved in the methodology that I use, my current "feel forecast" is that it may be highly variable and up and down all winter. That's just based on how the patterns seem to be shaping up as a balance between some blocking and some zonal intervals. Mixed signals. But I hope to back that up with some case studies pointing to high variability in the analogue set. In fact, that would be excellent for the forum because while last winter was exciting to start, most of January and February were rather dull from a forum point of view, either mild or feeble easterly spells, and not a whole lot of active weather. Almost the whole winter came and went between 23 November and 27 December in terms of active weather.

delw · 21-09-2011 1:49am

thanks MT

leahyl · 21-09-2011 8:34am

Thanks MT! I really hope it's not 'mild', as you put it, over Christmas. Would really love some snow again like last year - it made everything all the more Christmassy:D We'll wait and see:)

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 21-09-2011 8:45am

Im worried that Megatron liked MTs post. HE IS BACK ! :pac:

nacho libre · 21-09-2011 12:35pm

Personally, although Elmer Booker and paddy1, in particular, would disagree, the non active period/ "winter being over by the end of December", was worth it in my opinion, given we got a sustained cold spell(the coldest in 100 years) with lots of snow- more snow fell than in the week of Christmas 2000

So i'd take a repeat of last year, rather than a situation with a snow today - gone tomorrow situation prevailing throughout this winter.

megatron989 · 21-09-2011 7:34pm

Even with a chance of a milder winter cycle I think its wise to prepare for snowmageddon 2.0. Already started hoarding supplies of old dvds and smokes along with my show jacket, snow pants, snow socks and trusty snow stick to beat back the snow if it gets two much. Just need a box of MRE'S and I'm good to go. Anyone else stocking up just in case?

fr wishy washy · 21-09-2011 7:39pm

Stocking up on wood for my new wood burning stove.

NIALL D · 21-09-2011 7:58pm

o your right , now is the time to start stocking up.. time will fly by , and it will be handy to have everthing ready in time rather than rushin at the last min like most people do.....

Lucreto · 21-09-2011 8:06pm

megatron989 wrote: »

Even with a chance of a milder winter cycle I think its wise to prepare for snowmageddon 2.0. Already started hoarding supplies of old dvds and smokes along with my show jacket, snow pants, snow socks and trusty snow stick to beat back the snow if it gets two much. Just need a box of MRE'S and I'm good to go. Anyone else stocking up just in case?

I don't need to stock up. I have the biggest Tesco in the country 10 minutes walk from me. Sadly work it a 20 walk for me so I get no snow days. I got 90% of my Christmas presents bought just in case the snow arrives in the rush. 96 days remaining I believe.

I need a walking stick for the snow I used a golf umbrella last year and wrecked the top of it so I need a proper stick. I am waiting for lidl or aldi to sell them for ?20 but if anyone know were to get one cheaply it would be appreciated.

ShawB · 21-09-2011 8:38pm

A snow stick?? I doubt you can brush off much snow with a stick? or maybe I am just very naive :pac:

thetonynator · 21-09-2011 10:42pm

Lucreto wrote: »

I don't need to stock up. I have the biggest Tesco in the country 10 minutes walk from me. Sadly work it a 20 walk for me so I get no snow days. I got 90% of my Christmas presents bought just in case the snow arrives in the rush. 96 days remaining I believe.

I need a walking stick for the snow I used a golf umbrella last year and wrecked the top of it so I need a proper stick. I am waiting for lidl or aldi to sell them for ?20 but if anyone know were to get one cheaply it would be appreciated.

Even big supermarkets can run out if it went on for more than a week or so.

NIALL D · 21-09-2011 10:55pm

thetonynator wrote: »

Even big supermarkets can run out if it went on for more than a week or so.

happened our local shop last year , big enough centra , ran out of bread ..
there was no bread in the village for about 10 days , trucks couldn get to the village , fairly hill every way into it..

Lucreto · 21-09-2011 11:23pm

thetonynator wrote: »

Even big supermarkets can run out if it went on for more than a week or so.

Didn't have that problem last year. It has to be a really bad snow storm for that to happen.

If you remember I think the week before Christmas when it snowed non-stop all day. I went to Tesco from work at 10pm and they were restocking the milk, bread etc. The delivery trucks could make it to them no problem but some of the smaller shops were left with nothing.

Anyway I have to take a stock check on my canned goods just to be safe. I found a can of beans from last November hidden in the back cupboard.:P

Sparks · 21-09-2011 11:28pm

Canned beans? Ugh. Dried are cheaper, taste better and last longer

Pangea · 21-09-2011 11:41pm

thetonynator wrote: »

Even big supermarkets can run out if it went on for more than a week or so.

NIALL D wrote: »

happened our local shop last year , big enough centra , ran out of bread ..
there was no bread in the village for about 10 days , trucks couldn get to the village , fairly hill every way into it..

Forget the bread, our local pubs couldnt get the beer deliverys back in 2000 in the snow. Now that was a state of emergency :pac:

Lucreto · 21-09-2011 11:42pm

Sparks wrote: »

Canned beans? Ugh. Dried are cheaper, taste better and last longer

I was referring to baked bean. I am addicted to them. Beans on toast and a hot cuppa after walking through the snow was heaven to me last year.

Lucreto · 21-09-2011 11:50pm

Pangea wrote: »

Forget the bread, our local pubs couldnt get the beer deliverys back in 2000 in the snow. Now that was a state of emergency :pac:

I don't remember the snows in 2000. It might not have snowed were I am living. The last serious snow other than last year was in 1997.

If the pubs ran out the guards would have to be called out.

delw · 22-09-2011 12:15am

thetonynator wrote: »

Even big supermarkets can run out if it went on for more than a week or so.

:eek: time to get the beer in

22-09-2011 1:46am

delw wrote: »

:eek: time to get the beer in

No, leave it outside (chillin) you'll need space in to fridge for the food.

Winter 2011/2012

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