Peak Oil at 2014?

20-12-2010 1:53pm

ei.sdraob wrote: »

edit: peak oil should be the least of our concerns at a time when the country has lost its sovereignty and has indebted future generations with heavy debt burden ,it is interesting to see Green representatives care and respond to such a minor issue when his government is responsible for the wholesale sellout of the nation. shame on you

Peak oil is one of the reasons why the bailout debt will never be repaid, well without massive QE (money printing) resulting in hyperinflation with a hamburger costing 495,000 (go large for only 40,000).:rolleyes:

Macha · 20-12-2010 1:56pm

ei.sdraob wrote: »

If you bothered to read my posts on this site you would see that i place plenty of blame on corrupt FF too

except the Greens had a chance to walk away and trigger an election long time ago, but they decided to side with FF for their own benefit
country be damned, now we have a representative from them telling us how "long term thinking" is so important after his party and their partners managed to sell out the country and lost its independence due to their policies

where was his long term thinking when he voted for NAMA and the bailouts :rolleyes:

This is not the forum for talk of NAMA or this sort of politics talk. Keep it for the Politics form please.

ei.sdraob · 20-12-2010 2:49pm

Macha wrote: »

This is not the forum for talk of NAMA or this sort of politics talk. Keep it for the Politics form please.

Without the political and economic dimension, sustainability threads descend into fantasy land. All of these are connected considering the policy and future of this country are being shaped by politicians using economic arguments based environmental/sustainability issues

If you wish to have a shallow discussion and let this public representative get away with flunking it, then that's fine its your forum I am not going to argue with that anymore. Maybe if we question and demanded more from our elected officials instead of burying our heads in sand, we would not be where we are today

Deleted User wrote: »

Peak oil is one of the reasons why the bailout debt will never be repaid, well without massive QE (money printing) resulting in hyperinflation with a hamburger costing 495,000 (go large for only 40,000).:rolleyes:

like to scaremonger much? this is the type of "posts" we get when basic economics is thrown out the window when the environmental issues are discussed.

Macha · 20-12-2010 3:07pm

ei.sdraob wrote: »

Without the political and economic dimension, sustainability threads descend into fantasy land. All of these are connected considering the policy and future of this country are being shaped by politicians using economic arguments based environmental/sustainability issues

If you wish to have a shallow discussion and let this public representative get away with flunking it, then that's fine its your forum I am not going to argue with that anymore. Maybe if we question and demanded more from our elected officials instead of burying our heads in sand, we would not be where we are today

like to scaremonger much? this is the type of "posts" we get when basic economics is thrown out the window when the environmental issues are discussed.

You're long enough in the tooth to know that in-thread moderation is not allowed.

ei.sdraob · 20-12-2010 3:17pm

Macha wrote: »

You're long enough in the tooth to know that in-thread moderation is not allowed.

I provided my opinion that without looking at the wider picture, the discussions are shallow and lacking balance.

If you want it that way then that's fine I will not debate anymore here, you can continue patting each other on the back and waving your heads in agreement.

Macha · 20-12-2010 3:22pm

ei.sdraob wrote: »

I provided my opinion that without looking at the wider picture, the discussions are shallow and lacking balance.

If you want it that way then that's fine I will not debate anymore here, you can continue patting each other on the back and waving your heads in agreement.

*sigh* banned for 3 days for in-thread discussion of moderation. This isn't rocket science, ei.sdraob.

20-12-2010 5:51pm

ei.sdraob wrote: »

I provided my opinion that without looking at the wider picture, the discussions are shallow and lacking balance.

If you want it that way then that's fine I will not debate anymore here, you can continue patting each other on the back and waving your heads in agreement.

I think that most of agree that the affects of peak oil are going to be wide ranging, the economic situation being just one part.

The main issue will be the affects on day to day living of ordinary people, for example will you be forced to move nearer to work when the price reaches a certain level, or will fuel be rationed first.

There has already been a 10% decline in oil consumption since 2005 (much of that can be linked to the ending of the building boom), what affect on life would another 10% drop have?

Macha · 20-12-2010 6:21pm

Deleted User wrote: »

The main issue will be the affects on day to day living of ordinary people, for example will you be forced to move nearer to work when the price reaches a certain level, or will fuel be rationed first.

There are already worries about the social consequences of "accessibility-poor" areas of Ireland. If you live somewhere that is more than 15 mins walk away from any form of public transport and you're too young/old/sick/poor to drive, what do you do?

Capt'n Midnight · 20-12-2010 11:11pm

recedite wrote: »

Petrol is more expensive in Norn Iron.

A LOT of the petrol used in the north is bought this side of the boarder. The tax they pay subsidises our fuel costs down here, which increases our carbon contribution.

In industries like haulage where people undercut each other in a race to the bottom margins are so small that they are very vulnerable to fuel costs. At the other extreme RyanAir seem to be handling the huge increase in fuel costs quite well. Air travel is increadibly cheap by any historic measure and would remain so even if fuel costs were to double.

maninasia · 21-12-2010 8:30am

Deleted User wrote: »

I agree that the carbon is a scam, pure and simple! Job creation is going to be difficult while as you say the banks are taking all the spare income (via taxes). The biggest issue with jobs of course is low Chinese wages & cheap transportation of goods from China, it's impossible to compete!

Future oil scarcity changes the game completely.

It's not really the way I see it. You can't say Ireland, a high income country of 4-5 million people directly competes with a relatively poor country of 1.3 billion people.

The point is Ireland should use it's small size and flexibility to turn quickly and exploit new markets. We should be selling INTO China, not competing with China. That means software, food and natural products, educational services, branded luxury and consumer goods, farm engineering products etc. We should be a base for Chinese investment in Europe.

Even take Germany as an example. A quick look at the situation would have said that China and Germany are major competitors. That is true in one sense, yet German companies are doing massive business with China and Asia, Germany is flying as it's products and services are taken up in Asia.

You see China ultimately can be a force for job creation in Ireland. Look at Singapore, very similar to Ireland, record GDP this year, the place is going great guns even though it is 10X more expensive than China but it plays it's position well with links with China and also with SE Asia and N.America.

maninasia · 21-12-2010 8:33am

I'm pretty sure there is something to Peak Oil, what with oil deposits being harder to extract, more expensive (think Gulf BP incident) and the massive rise of demand in developing countries worldwide. My question is can cheap natural gas hold that off for the time being?
Having been to China and India recently both countries are exploding in car ownership and energy demands, one thing for sure is energy is not going to be cheaper!
India is only at the start of it's industrialisation, China well advanced but it's citizens demanding western lifestyle the first step being a nice apartment and a car!

maninasia · 21-12-2010 8:35am

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

A LOT of the petrol used in the north is bought this side of the boarder. The tax they pay subsidises our fuel costs down here, which increases our carbon contribution.

In industries like haulage where people undercut each other in a race to the bottom margins are so small that they are very vulnerable to fuel costs. At the other extreme RyanAir seem to be handling the huge increase in fuel costs quite well. Air travel is increadibly cheap by any historic measure and would remain so even if fuel costs were to double.

I wouldn't be too sure on that point, a doubling in fuel cost surely would have a big effect on overall cost, many marginal routes could be cut.

21-12-2010 8:53am

maninasia wrote: »

I'm pretty sure there is something to Peak Oil, what with oil deposits being harder to extract, more expensive (think Gulf BP incident) and the massive rise of demand in developing countries worldwide. My question is can cheap natural gas hold that off for the time being?
Having been to China and India recently both countries are exploding in car ownership and energy demands, one thing for sure is energy is not going to be cheaper!
India is only at the start of it's industrialisation, China well advanced but it's citizens demanding western lifestyle the first step being a nice apartment and a car!

Cheap gas and the fairly recent advances in gas extraction technology (fracking) will provide gas for heating power generation etc, but not transportation (electric vehicles excepted), the biggest fear for western countries is that the expansion in eastern car ownership will completely deplete the "buffer" of spare capacity over the next two to three years.

With recessionary demand destruction decreasing our consumption, the "surplus" is being gobbled up by China, when the west gets out of recession the oil won't be there to support the growth.

Peak oil will put a lid on global growth, full stop!

If China is still growing, then somewhere else is declining. On the backside of peak oil, i.e. when the decline in production becomes clear for all to see (after 2014 ish) then global industrial & food production will go into terminal decline. Initially this decline will be fairly slow, 1-2% per year, but will go into a steeper decline as the cost of the remaining oil is put out of more and more peoples reach.

maninasia · 21-12-2010 9:10am

I agree with a lot of what you wrote. But coal is very plentiful and is more popular for electricity production than oil. I think you could be right about the 1-2% annual reduction after peak , I'm just wondering if it will be matched by ramped up electricity production from natural gas, coal and nuclear sources (along with a small contribution from renewables). I can see vehicles switching to natural gas and electrical propulsion very readily when price gets too high.
What's your view on that?

21-12-2010 9:47am

Coal is still plentiful as you say, but the quality is falling as the best stuff has already been extracted. China still has a good supply of high quality coal and most of their industry is coal powered, the main issue they have is that they can't get it out of the ground quick enough and to where it's needed (five day + traffic jams are not unheard of).

The problems that namy countries will experience is as the quality of the coal falls, the quantity to produce the same amount of energy will increase, so will the pollution!

Depending on where you look and on what expected consumption levels could rise to, the estimates for coal reserves is between 20-40 years.

Gas at current consumption levels could be as short as 5 years up to 100 years depending on the price.

Some people will get electric cars some will get compressed gas cars but the costs (to buy) will be higher than the equivalent petrol cars. If all road vehicles were replaced with electric or gas, then the depletion rates of these fuels will be much faster.

The main issue for mankind is that we have become too addicted to a super high energy lifestyle, we are currently doing everything possible to continue that lifestyle right up to the bitter end.

We will soon end up with a situation where oil is declining, gas is declining, coal is declining, when all three primary fuel resources are declining, the decline in lifestyle will be rapid and painful for many and the end for many more as food production is dependant on fuel.

Capt'n Midnight · 21-12-2010 1:35pm

maninasia wrote: »

I wouldn't be too sure on that point, a doubling in fuel cost surely would have a big effect on overall cost, many marginal routes could be cut.

I can remember when the cheapest flights to London were £200 , I can get electronic stuff posted from Honk Kong for less than the cost of postage alone from local suppliers, transport is only a small fraction of the cost, and even if transport costs go up by a factor of four its still cheaper than it was.

The point is that the decreasing costs of stuff have outweighed the increasing cost of delivery for many products for quite a while. Especially here in Ireland.

21-12-2010 1:50pm

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

I can remember when the cheapest flights to London were £200 , I can get electronic stuff posted from Honk Kong for less than the cost of postage alone from local suppliers, transport is only a small fraction of the cost, and even if transport costs go up by a factor of four its still cheaper than it was.

The point is that the decreasing costs of stuff have outweighed the increasing cost of delivery for many products for quite a while. Especially here in Ireland.

Without drifting too far OT most freight is priced on size & weight, so with a container load of MP3 players the unit cost of transport is almost nothing compared with the retail price.

The cost of fuel will have to go up many multiples of its current price to kill this market, as it is, it will be the loss of disposible income that will kill international trade in small expensive goods.

maninasia · 21-12-2010 1:56pm

The cost of fuel will strongly affect many businesses viability or at least location and sourcing and it will certainly impact passenger prices strongly and I mentioned change the dynamics of flight loading and profitability on many routes.

maninasia · 21-12-2010 2:02pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Coal is still plentiful as you say, but the quality is falling as the best stuff has already been extracted. China still has a good supply of high quality coal and most of their industry is coal powered, the main issue they have is that they can't get it out of the ground quick enough and to where it's needed (five day + traffic jams are not unheard of).

The problems that namy countries will experience is as the quality of the coal falls, the quantity to produce the same amount of energy will increase, so will the pollution!

Depending on where you look and on what expected consumption levels could rise to, the estimates for coal reserves is between 20-40 years.

Gas at current consumption levels could be as short as 5 years up to 100 years depending on the price.

Some people will get electric cars some will get compressed gas cars but the costs (to buy) will be higher than the equivalent petrol cars. If all road vehicles were replaced with electric or gas, then the depletion rates of these fuels will be much faster.

The main issue for mankind is that we have become too addicted to a super high energy lifestyle, we are currently doing everything possible to continue that lifestyle right up to the bitter end.

We will soon end up with a situation where oil is declining, gas is declining, coal is declining, when all three primary fuel resources are declining, the decline in lifestyle will be rapid and painful for many and the end for many more as food production is dependant on fuel.

Your estimates don't match up with most estimates, the average claim is 130 years of reserves of coal. The problem is not the availability of coal but the CO2 and soot emissions..the pollution would be absolutely terrible (I know unfortunately the city I live in has one of the biggest coal fired power stations in the world and it almost always has a brown haze lying over it- coal is dirty full stop). Unfortunately it powers most electricity in China and will continue to do so and maybe even more soon in Western countries too as oil gets more expensive...we are in trouble whichever way we look at this!

The way I see things going is oil going up in price to float around 120-130 USD or so for foreseeable future, coal going up slightly in price but not hugely due to more countries producing it and electricity production boosted from coal fired plants mostly , then natural gas , nuclear and renewables and most vehicles switching to electric within 10-20 years (and up to 30% of vehicles being electrical based within 10 years if another oil shock occurs). Coal will power the world but it's going to be dirty, damn!

ei.sdraob · 30-12-2010 10:36pm

maninasia wrote: »

The cost of fuel will strongly affect many businesses viability or at least location and sourcing and it will certainly impact passenger prices strongly and I mentioned change the dynamics of flight loading and profitability on many routes.

Oh I have an idea, remove the 1 euro or so in taxes on each liter of fuel :rolleyes:

Capt'n Midnight · 31-12-2010 2:29am

ei.sdraob wrote: »

Oh I have an idea, remove the 1 euro or so in taxes on each liter of fuel :rolleyes:

LOL Brilliant idea, except the tax take on fuel is nowhere near 1 euro per litre , it's less than 50c for businesses. [why do the people who keep suggesting this sort of thing not know the first thing about the subject, ie the amount of tax on fuel :rolleyes: ]

Hauliers and delivery companies had a race to the bottom and are now reaping the rewards. UK multiples are charging more for products here than in NI and we know that it's little or nothing to do with transport costs, so ineffect all this would do would be to subsidise those who profiteer.

http://www.revenue.ie/en/tax/excise/duties/excise-duty-rates.html
Excise rates
petrol is 57.622c per litre
diesel 46.57c per litre

IIRC companies can claim back the VAT
yes the excise duty has gone up, but from the time when fuel was relatively cheap most of the increase in fuel has been in VAT

It's like people complaining about tax on drink without realising that excise duty on beer hasn't changed since 1994 except for a 50% reduction for beers of 2.8%

ei.sdraob · 31-12-2010 6:04pm

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

LOL Brilliant idea, except the tax take on fuel is nowhere near 1 euro per litre , it's less than 50c for businesses. [why do the people who keep suggesting this sort of thing not know the first thing about the subject, ie the amount of tax on fuel :rolleyes: ]

Hauliers and delivery companies had a race to the bottom and are now reaping the rewards. UK multiples are charging more for products here than in NI and we know that it's little or nothing to do with transport costs, so ineffect all this would do would be to subsidise those who profiteer.

http://www.revenue.ie/en/tax/excise/duties/excise-duty-rates.html
Excise rates
petrol is 57.622c per litre
diesel 46.57c per litre

IIRC companies can claim back the VAT
yes the excise duty has gone up, but from the time when fuel was relatively cheap most of the increase in fuel has been in VAT

It's like people complaining about tax on drink without realising that excise duty on beer hasn't changed since 1994 except for a 50% reduction for beers of 2.8%

Customers who have to visit these shops and businesses dont get any money off their fuels :rolleyes: there is alot more to the economy than the hauliers

Petrol in US at this time of writting is €0.55/litre including small taxes
Petrol here is €1.45
Diesel has similar crazy ratio

In the US they want the economy to grow and people to have jobs, here we want people to go back to using donkeys and carts

recedite · 31-12-2010 6:20pm

Indonesians seem to think they would be better off with dearer petrol prices;
"Indonesian lawmakers approved a government proposal to gradually limit the sale of subsidized fuel starting in 2011, a move analyst said may have benign impact to consumer prices in Southeast Asia’s biggest economy."

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-12-14/indonesia-approves-limits-on-subsidized-fuel-sales.html

31-12-2010 6:26pm

ei.sdraob wrote: »

Petrol in US at this time of writting is €0.55/litre including small taxes
Petrol here is €1.45
Diesel has similar crazy ratio

In the US they want the economy to grow and people to have jobs, here we want people to go back to using donkeys and carts

Taxes in Europe are used to support Health and Social services that are not available in the US, you can't compare apples and pears.

In a way it's better this way, if (when) there is a huge rise in oil prices, the pump price will be much smaller so reducing the "price shock", in the US if oil doubles then the pump price doubles.

A major shift in the $ - € exchange rate will affect it as well.

As it is, oil prices arn't exactly stable at the moment!

ei.sdraob · 31-12-2010 9:01pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Taxes in Europe are used to support Health and Social services that are not available in the US, you can't compare apples and pears.

In a way it's better this way, if (when) there is a huge rise in oil prices, the pump price will be much smaller so reducing the "price shock", in the US if oil doubles then the pump price doubles.

A major shift in the $ - € exchange rate will affect it as well.

As it is, oil prices arn't exactly stable at the moment!

once again this forum lacks the perspective of at looking geopolitics and economic changes when discussing sustainability issues

i suppose half of the people here where jumping up joy chanting "peak oil" as speculators drove the price thru roof in 2008

thanks to money printing and QE there is 3x dollars in existence now than few years ago
its not the oil getting expensive but the currency that the oil is priced in being devalued

here is the oil:gold ratio, gold cant be printed into existence last i checked

and for the same period the price of both in dollars which is being printed like no tommorow

maninasia · 01-01-2011 7:17am

recedite wrote: »

Indonesians seem to think they would be better off with dearer petrol prices;
"Indonesian lawmakers approved a government proposal to gradually limit the sale of subsidized fuel starting in 2011, a move analyst said may have benign impact to consumer prices in Southeast Asia’s biggest economy."

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-12-14/indonesia-approves-limits-on-subsidized-fuel-sales.html

Most Asian countries heavily subsidise oil as it is a key driver of inflation, one of the first things the citizens will protest over is fuel price increases.

As oil gets more expensive the burden on governments increases, therefore some are trying to reduce their subsidies.
It is nothing to do with worries about the amount of oil or greenhouse gases etc.

recedite · 01-01-2011 12:52pm

ei.sdraob wrote: »

thanks to money printing and QE there is 3x dollars in existence now than few years ago
its not the oil getting expensive but the currency that the oil is priced in being devalued

here is the oil:gold ratio, gold cant be printed into existence last i checked

Gold can't be printed but it's price still fluctuates. All you have shown is that the price of gold in US$ has risen. Adam Smith in The Wealth Of Nations wrote that the true measure of wealth is how much labour you can buy. I have no graph, but I'm pretty sure both oil and gold have gone up relative to labour since 2008.

maninasia wrote: »

As oil gets more expensive the burden on governments increases, therefore some are trying to reduce their subsidies.
It is nothing to do with worries about the amount of oil or greenhouse gases etc.

Classic Orwellian doublethink

ei.sdraob · 01-01-2011 1:03pm

recedite wrote: »

Gold can't be printed but it's price still fluctuates. All you have shown is that the price of gold in US$ has risen. Adam Smith in The Wealth Of Nations wrote that the true measure of wealth is how much labour you can buy. I have no graph, but I'm pretty sure both oil and gold have gone up relative to labour since 2008.

Yes it does fluctuate and one of the graphs does show the latest gold bubble
but its interesting that the fluctuations have remained in the 0.1 +/- 0.05 ratio range in over 110 years, in the same timespan we can identify from the graphs such historic events such dollar leaving gold standard, great depression, ww2, the oil embargo, the oil speculation bubble of 08 and beginnings of the current gold bubble
and yet despite all these world changing events the 2 commodities remain remarkably close to each other in their price movements

you also have to remember each barrel of oil contains enormous amounts of stored energy directly helping productivity increase, and we also had large productivity increases in last century due to other technologies such as computers and robots, eitherway you will have a hard time measuring "labour" especially when labour is paid for in fiat currencies.

aside: some oil producers are trying hard to move from the out being denominated in dollars and in some cases using bartering to sidestep it.

the poster I replied to is in "OMG the price is going up measured in dollars" but forgets to mention that the dollar is being created into existence like there is no tomorrow.

maninasia · 01-01-2011 1:32pm

recedite wrote: »

Gold can't be printed but it's price still fluctuates. All you have shown is that the price of gold in US$ has risen. Adam Smith in The Wealth Of Nations wrote that the true measure of wealth is how much labour you can buy. I have no graph, but I'm pretty sure both oil and gold have gone up relative to labour since 2008.

Classic Orwellian doublethink

There's no doublethink at all...the cost to their budget has gone up as oil has become more expensive (this is caused by many reasons, not just lack of oil, which there is no real immediate lack of). They are motivated by short-term concerns as I stated already, they are not motivated to 'save oil'.

recedite · 01-01-2011 2:05pm

If new oil fields were being discovered as quickly as old ones are being depleted, the price of oil would not be rising. Everything else mentioned follows on from that simple fact.

Labour is measured in hours. Mechanisation and education has made labour more efficient in most regions, and therefore more expensive there compared to primitive labour. Its still the benchmark for relative wealth anywhere though.

Peak Oil at 2014?

Comments