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FF - are they going to wither and die?

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  • 27-02-2011 3:16am
    #1
    Sir Oxman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,492 ✭✭✭


    Look at who the TDs are that they manage to get elected?


    The majority are second-rate anonymous backbenchers who kept their heads down. Those that are known are irretrievably connected to the meltdown in Ireland.

    Is this what will reinvigorate FF?
    I don't think so.


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    #2
    Syferus
    Registered Users Posts: 5,965 ✭✭✭Syferus


    Oh, the wishful thinking of the optimist.


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    #3
    johngalway
    Closed Accounts Posts: 10,271 ✭✭✭✭johngalway


    No. But, I do think they have a much, much longer and far more difficult road to travel than they realise.

    I mean, less transfer friendly than Sinn Fein, that's bad.

    But, it's hard to kill a bad thing...


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    #4
    Sir Oxman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,492 ✭✭✭Sir Oxman


    Syferus wrote: »
    Oh, the wishful thinking of the optimist.
    :D

    But look at them -
    O Fearghail, Dooley, Collins, Calleary, O Cuiv, Smith, O Dea then clapped out oldtimers like Lenihan and Martin whose credibility is shot.


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    #5
    Sir Oxman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,492 ✭✭✭Sir Oxman


    johngalway wrote: »
    No. But, I do think they have a much, much longer and far more difficult road to travel than they realise.

    I mean, less transfer friendly than Sinn Fein, that's bad.

    But, it's hard to kill a bad thing...


    Yes, they do have a very long road to travel if they are to survive.
    If Labour don't go in with FG (which I hope is the outcome) then I think they will be set back even further and maybe the back of them will be broken.

    The majority of FFers returned so far will have to up their game by the order of magnitudes if they are to make any impression nationally!


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    #6
    PeterIanStaker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,072 ✭✭✭PeterIanStaker


    I think the lack of money in the FF coffers with which to run a campaign will be telling.


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    #7
    oppenheimer1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,084 ✭✭✭oppenheimer1


    gambiaman wrote: »
    Look at who the TDs are that they manage to get elected?


    The majority are second-rate anonymous backbenchers who kept their heads down. Those that are known are irretrievably connected to the meltdown in Ireland.

    Is this what will reinvigorate FF?
    I don't think so.

    Will the FF party survive? There are so many variables and unknowns that it is impossible to know. First of all will be the make up of the new government. Will FG go for coalition with Labour or be backed by independents? Will Micheal Martin be the leader of the opposition? Will the new government be able to get a handle on the economy? Will the global economy pick up? Will FFs rebranding exercise be successful? Among a host of other variables both known and unknown.

    IMO FF will survive until the next election which will be make or break for them. If they do not improve seat numbers then, then the party is finished.


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    #8
    Drumpot
    Registered Users Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    FF will survive . .

    If nothing else the ignorance of the electorate will ensure that . .

    Do people really think they have rid themselves of "those kind of politicians" ? I know one who is a first time TD who is most certainly the kind of politician associated with the kind of non desired kind that people hoped finished with FF . .

    By the way, when I said ignorance of electorate , I meant the ignorance of peopel who felt voting for other parties meant we would automatically get a better politician.


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    #9
    Amazotheamazing
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,048 ✭✭✭Amazotheamazing


    Another way of looking at it is they'll have a lot of established and experienced candidates to run in the next local elections. Don't underestimate how many councillors that could bring in.

    If they can re-establish themselves at local level they'll survive. They took two big kickings in the last two local elections.


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    #10
    Sir Oxman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,492 ✭✭✭Sir Oxman


    oppenheimer1 wrote: »
    Will the FF party survive? There are so many variables and unknowns that it is impossible to know. First of all will be the make up of the new government. Will FG go for coalition with Labour or be backed by independents? Will Micheal Martin be the leader of the opposition? Will the new government be able to get a handle on the economy? Will the global economy pick up? Will FFs rebranding exercise be successful? Among a host of other variables both known and unknown.

    IMO FF will survive until the next election which will be make or break for them. If they do not improve seat numbers then, then the party is finished.


    Yes, interesting times ahead.
    My point about unknown backbenchers being returned stands though - anonymous parishers by the look and sound of them, not ideal to supposedly lead an opposition and raise a national profile for the New FF.
    That and PeterIan Staker's point - no mon, no fun.


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    #11
    Sir Oxman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,492 ✭✭✭Sir Oxman


    Amazotheamazing wrote: »
    Another way of looking at it is they'll have a lot of established and experienced candidates to run in the next local elections. Don't underestimate how many councillors that could bring in.

    If they can re-establish themselves at local level they'll survive. They took two big kickings in the last two local elections.


    that'll be an interesting one to watch alright.
    the best way to get back in is work on the ground alright.


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    #12
    spiralism
    Registered Users Posts: 6,299 ✭✭✭spiralism


    a few points on this:

    -FF were decimated in the council elections. The councils elect part of the seanad (which Kenny intends to do away with anyways). Couple this with today's obliterations in the Dáil and that is a party crippled on all three levels, there's no real base to the party now

    -First time and young voters want nothing to do with the soldiers of destiny. FF are retaining the same support base that they've always had but it's dying off

    -Combine a dwindling support, little support among first time and younger voters and a party severely weakened from the grassroots up and the signs aren't great.


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    #13
    Sir Oxman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,492 ✭✭✭Sir Oxman


    Drumpot wrote: »
    FF will survive . .

    If nothing else the ignorance of the electorate will ensure that . .

    Do people really think they have rid themselves of "those kind of politicians" ? I know one who is a first time TD who is most certainly the kind of politician associated with the kind of non desired kind that people hoped finished with FF . .

    By the way, when I said ignorance of electorate , I meant the ignorance of peopel who felt voting for other parties meant we would automatically get a better politician.


    There'll be loads of that type elected unfortunately - always wil be the best that can be done is to reform political system from bottom up.
    I've seen quite a few FGers who should not be in the Dail at all - useless gombeens as much as the FFers booted out.


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    #14
    Amazotheamazing
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,048 ✭✭✭Amazotheamazing


    gambiaman wrote: »
    that'll be an interesting one to watch alright.
    the best way to get back in is work on the ground alright.

    And crucially, if we go through the FF votes I bet we'll find they are localised. Not enough to cross the line in GE but enough to top the poll in a LE. Take a guy like Peter Power in Limerick, it's not inconceivable he could outpoll the SF candidate in his ward (Ward One) if most of his votes are from the same ward that the SF candidate is in (which I suspect they are) despite the SF candidate outpolling him considerably yesterday.


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    #15
    themont85
    Registered Users Posts: 2,608 ✭✭✭themont85


    They won't hit 70 seats for at least two decades in my opinion. Anything over 40 next time will be a recovery of sorts but back to the days of old no.

    They have the best grassroots organisation and large youth membership still. I think they have lost a large section of the populations vote and emigrants votes who come back here, forever, but they won't die.


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    #16
    Amazotheamazing
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,048 ✭✭✭Amazotheamazing


    spiralism wrote: »
    a few points on this:

    -FF were decimated in the council elections. The councils elect part of the seanad (which Kenny intends to do away with anyways). Couple this with today's obliterations in the Dáil and that is a party crippled on all three levels, there's no real base to the party now

    I'd like to believe you but I bet FF do surprisingly in the next LE. The Government parties tend to suffer in the LE's, iirc.

    Course, a lot depends on what reforms FG actually bring in.


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    #17
    i57dwun4yb1pt8
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭i57dwun4yb1pt8


    its a straight swap

    FG will turn into FF mark 2 , to be in power until everything gets better again ( 10 years )

    FF will turn into FG mark 2 to be in opposition for the this and the next election

    and so the dance continues


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    #18
    Sir Oxman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,492 ✭✭✭Sir Oxman


    Amazotheamazing wrote: »
    I'd like to believe you but I bet FF do surprisingly in the next LE. The Government parties tend to suffer in the LE's, iirc.

    Course, a lot depends on what reforms FG actually bring in.


    Next LE is 2014?


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    #19
    maccored
    Registered Users Posts: 10,660 ✭✭✭✭maccored


    i just think of cockroaches


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    #20
    Amazotheamazing
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,048 ✭✭✭Amazotheamazing


    gambiaman wrote: »
    Next LE is 2014?

    Think so. It's not that far away and you can be sure FF will be working towards it very soon. Remember, you only need about 1,000 votes to get a seat in most LE constituencies, that's well within the range of a lot of the eliminated FF'ers, if their votes are local.


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    #21
    johnmcdnl
    Registered Users Posts: 3,739 ✭✭✭johnmcdnl


    not a hope...

    they'll probably lead the next government when everything starts going mad at FG/Lab for letting Ireland default...

    People forget quickly..

    there's no chance in hell that FF will disappear - they will be where Labour usually are after a terrible showing in the polls.. FF won't disappear and fizzle out..

    they'll regroup and will win the next election in Ireland..


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    #22
    doolox
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,350 ✭✭✭doolox


    Without the big corporate donations of the past, where will FF get its support, and money?

    I'd say there will not be a big overall majority party ever again in Irish politics at national level. Whatever comes out will be the result of coalitions, agreements and alliances. Elections will probably happen more often.


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    #23
    joulter
    Registered Users Posts: 115 ✭✭joulter


    if the next government goes 5 yrs and ff arent in government after the next election, then they are dead. they are broke already and they'll have no sweets to dish out to their supporters so big business backers will move to fg unless the corporate donations law is implemented.

    an early indicator of ff's future is the presidential election, if they do well in that then we know for certain the irish public has the memory of goldfish.

    as regards the next dail. most of what is being reelected for ff is useless lobby fodder, they only have a few decent communicators and they are all tainted with the economic collapse. they probably will have no women in the dail and no td under 30


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    #24
    Mr. Guappa
    Registered Users Posts: 7,702 ✭✭✭Mr. Guappa


    At a time when they are being pilloried from all directions they still managed to obtain 17% of 1st preference vote, which equates to 29 seats. They managed their votes extremely poorly and fared poorly from transfers so they won't get anywhere near 29 seats but that level of vote goes to show that they will always have a strong core support.

    The days of FF having 80+ seats are hard to envisage in the next 10 years but they will be a force in the next election. FF are ingrained into the political fabric of this country, they will always be a significant factor in the running of our country.


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    #25
    Benito
    Closed Accounts Posts: 73 ✭✭Benito


    Funny but, I was thinking if our new Government don't pull a good rabbit out of the hat and we sink into a morass of debt. It will be immaterial who recovers and gets in next time. Was dissapointed Mattews went with FG, very dissapointed Sommerville failed to get elected but, on VB, Mattew said he did not care to be a back-bencher. Isn't going to be a George Lee. He can resign and still be a deputy, My interpetation. I can smell the sewage from where I live and work Not looking with any great hope for Endas' stewardship. Sorry if this seems too negative.


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    #26
    raymon
    Registered Users Posts: 2,774 ✭✭✭raymon


    I think it is fair to say that the FF core vote is made up of older people , or uneducated people .

    You can't fool these people forever either

    Next election 4-7% for FF


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    #27
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Fianna Fail is sat on a demographic time bomb, add the funding issues and its not beyond the bounds of the possible that the party will be abandoned and a new organisation created, the name Fianna Fial may not have that much of a future.


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    #28
    Max Power1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 10,272 ✭✭✭✭Max Power1


    mike65 wrote: »
    Fianna Fail is sat on a demographic time bomb, add the funding issues and its not beyond the bounds of the possible that the party will be abandoned and a new organisation created, the name Fianna Fial may not have that much of a future.
    indeed it does not :p


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    #29
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    :p

    Folk memory - their legacy will take years to be "overlooked" and every other party can trade on that
    Critical mass - not enough TDs or councillors
    They may not have enough TDs to stop SF and others forming a technical group that could be the official opposition
    Internal battles
    Final reports from certain Tribunals yet to be released
    Previously unknown scandals might come to light.
    Grass roots is old and disheartened
    The FF working class vote has been lost to the hard left and may be very hard to get back.


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    #30
    Sir Oxman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,492 ✭✭✭Sir Oxman


    They have completely lost the most populous part of the country - Dublin, Meath, Louth, Kildare and Wicklow.
    2 TDs returned out of 69 - the land of 3hour commutes to whatever work is left, families moved out from their homesteads to overpriced houses to buy into the FF dream, now crippled socially and financially and feeling abandoned, a lifetime of debt ahead of them.

    That will be hard to forget.


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    #31
    Benito
    Closed Accounts Posts: 73 ✭✭Benito


    raymon wrote: »
    I think it is fair to say that the FF core vote is made up of older people , or uneducated people .

    You can't fool these people forever either

    Next election 4-7% for FF

    You might be forgetting the gene-pool FF who stood as independant and got in. Still tribal votes (and yes we have in the Dublin areas as well!) When you get a surge, your first instinct is to consolidate so, get re-elected and minimise vote loss. First priority of everyone who has been elected. Bad news is on the way. Pain and cut-backs, continued emigration and job losses. 70% poll? next local election will be very important to see. I am not optimistic but, glad to see FF culled.


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