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General Election 2011 - Dublin Central thread

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    #32
    Badabing
    Registered Users Posts: 1,907 ✭✭✭Badabing


    Quota will be roughly 7,000 i think, Costello will top the poll but won't have much of a surplas, i can see Donoghue and O'Suillivan being around 5-6500 1st prefs and Mary Lou and Fitzpatrick not far behind. 3rd and 4th seats is anyones guess. I've no doubt that i'll change my mind again in the next 3 weeks.


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    #33
    FreudianSlippers
    Registered Users Posts: 20,397 ✭✭✭✭FreudianSlippers


    I heard that Mary-Lou moved into a rental place on Villa Park Road. My grandad lives around there and that's the old people rumour circulating :D


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    #34
    Sir Oxman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,492 ✭✭✭Sir Oxman


    FreudianSlippers wrote: »
    What are the political leanings of the 2 independent candidates?


    Left.

    There's also Malachy Steenson, he's left as well.

    Costello Left
    Clancy Left
    Burke Left
    O'Sullivan Left
    McDonald Left
    Steenson Left

    Brady Populist ;-)
    Fitzpatrick Populist ;-)

    Donohoe Centre-Right


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    #35
    Sir Oxman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,492 ✭✭✭Sir Oxman


    Maj Malfunction wrote: »
    I think Dublin Central will end up as follows

    1. Paschal Donohoe (FG)
    2. Joe Costello (Labour)
    3. Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind)
    4. Mary Fitzpatrick (FF) / Aine Clancy (Labour) / Christy Burke (Ind)

    If I was to bet on the 4th seat? Clancy on transfers??

    Cyprian Brady (FF) - Not a hope!
    Mary Lou McDonald (SF) - Not a hope!

    I didn't think Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind) was going to stand again in the election. Is there an official candidate list somewhere on the interweb?


    This site is excellent but not official:

    http://electionsireland.org

    Here's the declared candidates so far in all constituencies:

    http://electionsireland.org/results/general/31stdail/candidates.cfm

    And for DubCentral:

    http://electionsireland.org/biographies.cfm?election=2011&cons=85&sort=alpha


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    #36
    Travel is good
    Registered Users Posts: 824 ✭✭✭Travel is good


    FreudianSlippers wrote: »
    I heard that Mary-Lou moved into a rental place on Villa Park Road. My grandad lives around there and that's the old people rumour circulating :D
    That's interesting...

    It sounds like this is only a temporary move to the area, I am not sure the locals will take too kindly to that. I'd prefer a candidate who at least knew the area and was working on the ground.

    SF really seem to be trying very hard!

    I'm still not convinced on SF's economic and financial policies though.

    I saw a lot of the posters up this morning, the candidates are all looking well. Now if they could only run the country properly!


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    #37
    RetroBate
    Closed Accounts Posts: 89 ✭✭RetroBate


    Paul O'Loughlin Christian Solidarity Party has posters up so I think you can take it he's running again this time in Dublin Central.

    Christian Solidarity = Right Wing Catholic, Pro-life.


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    #38
    imme
    Registered Users Posts: 3,200 ✭✭✭imme


    Very interesting constituency.


    Coming from 2 TD's, FF could be reduced to zero.

    Paddy Power has odds of 16/1 on Cyprian Brady being reelected.

    Could be wipeout for FF.
    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-government?ev_oc_grp_ids=398451


    FG hoping to take back seat formerly held by Jim Mitchell. Sen Paschal Donohoe should be at the races.


    Labour looking for a second seat, which some see as a possibility. I don't see this, just look at the fact that they didn't get even one seat there in 1997-2002. So, one seat for Lab.


    SF looking for a seat, but might lose votes to Ind Christy Burke, who's running after leaving the party in 2009.

    Last time Mary Lou ran for SF here, in 2007, she polled more than 5% less in first prefs than their candidate in the previous election. Will be pretty tough for SF to come through and down to the wire.

    Although the collapsing FF vote has to go somewhere.


    There's also Ind Maureen O'Sullivan who's looking to hold the seat she won in the byelection. The 'Gregory' candidate should be at the races.


    The Greens again are standing, but don't stand a chance.


    There's also a number of other Ind's who will take votes here, a good bit at the expense of SF.


    Don't forget the Workers Party are also putting forward a candidate in this constituency. What is called Workers Party these days will be putting forward a total of 6 candidates in the GE.


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    #39
    mikemac
    Closed Accounts Posts: 19,986 ✭✭✭✭mikemac


    I hadn't realized Brady was so weak and Mary Fitzpatrick was so strong.

    At the last election there was a lot of conflict over their areas and between supporters and there wasn't a huge difference in votes.

    But isn't that sometimes the way, your biggest rival is often in your own party.

    But 16/1 and 5/6, seems not this time


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    #40
    Travel is good
    Registered Users Posts: 824 ✭✭✭Travel is good


    That's what I think also, I don't think Cyprian has a chance. I think he made the mistake on concentrating on one small geographic area within the Central constituency (usually Ballybough/north inner city). The area is way bigger than that! That's why I think Mary F has a better chance. Though of course, being a member of FF doesn't help anybody!

    I never remember such interest being shown before in candidates, that's a good thing. There is a lot more at stake now, it's our future & our children's future at stake.

    Thanks everyone for all the info. about the other candidates. I think the closing date for applications is 9th February, so hopefully we'll have a full list then.

    At the moment there seems to be a loft of Left-Wing candidates.


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    #41
    Travel is good
    Registered Users Posts: 824 ✭✭✭Travel is good


    Only getting a quick look at the Irish Times now. There is a good synopsis of all of the candidates, numbers of seats etc. on pages 12 to 16, though I can't see the tables on the online version.

    http://www.irishtimes.com/topics/election2011/


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    #42
    Sir Oxman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,492 ✭✭✭Sir Oxman


    gambiaman wrote: »
    Left.

    There's also Malachy Steenson, he's left as well.

    Costello Left
    Clancy Left
    Burke Left
    O'Sullivan Left
    McDonald Left
    Steenson Left

    Brady Populist ;-)
    Fitzpatrick Populist ;-)

    Donohoe Centre-Right


    Also,

    Cieran Perry Left (Ind)


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    #43
    Sir Oxman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,492 ✭✭✭Sir Oxman


    Any constituents see Mary fitzpatrick on the Primetime Late debate last night?

    Extremely poor and obviously didn't know what the debate was about until the presenter had to point it out to her. Embarrassing.


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    #44
    REPSOC1916
    Closed Accounts Posts: 162 ✭✭REPSOC1916


    gambiaman wrote: »
    Any constituents see Mary fitzpatrick on the Primetime Late debate last night?

    Extremely poor and obviously didn't know what the debate was about until the presenter had to point it out to her. Embarrassing.

    Did you get her rambling letter about why she is still in with Zanu-FF?

    Oh I'm calling it:
    1 Lab
    1 FG
    1 SF
    1 Ind (Probably O'Sullivan but I'd watch out for Perry)


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    #45
    Sir Oxman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,492 ✭✭✭Sir Oxman


    REPSOC1916 wrote: »
    Did you get her rambling letter about why she is still in with Zanu-FF?

    Oh I'm calling it:
    1 Lab
    1 FG
    1 SF
    1 Ind (Probably O'Sullivan but I'd watch out for Perry)


    I did, along with the lovely calendar.
    If proof were ever needed that MM's frontbench is a cynical exercise in shoring up the FF vote and not the reform he talks about, she's it.

    I still think she'll be in the mix for the last seat unfortunately...


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    #46
    alastair
    Registered Users Posts: 19,307 ✭✭✭✭alastair


    Mary Lou has no support base in Ballybough - Christy Burke will continue to drink her milkshake here, so unless she's convinced Cabra that she's no carpetbagger, I'm not seeing her do much better than last time out.

    After the first three (Costello, Donohue, O'Sullivan) it's going to be a three-way race between Fitzpatrick, McDonald, and Clancy. I would'nt put money on it, but my guess is it'll be Fitzpatrick.


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    #47
    Travel is good
    Registered Users Posts: 824 ✭✭✭Travel is good


    So where is this idea coming from that Mary Lou has a strong support base in the Central constituency? I don't see any evidence of it. According to gambiaman, she is strong in the Cabra area? As I said, there are way more voters than those in that geographical area. I still don't rate her chances, and it's more to do with the SF policies than anything else. I don't think they have a handle on economics and how to get our economy going again.

    So much for Mary F then, not looking good. Nor Cyprian Brady. maybe a FF wipeout????

    Labour might do well out of this, maybe Aine Clancy will get elected also. I'll have to find out a bit more about her views and policies.

    The supporters of Paschal Donohoe have done a great job with the posters, they seem very numerous. I heard that supporters for Cyprian Brady put a load of his posters near her home, not the done thing I'm afraid. I only saw one poster there this morning.

    I wonder will any of the candidates be out canvassing this weekend? I'd love to meet them, I must prepare some questions for the door-callers.

    At least it will be all over soon.


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    #48
    Sir Oxman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,492 ✭✭✭Sir Oxman


    Travel is good wrote: »
    So where is this idea coming from that Mary Lou has a strong support base in the Central constituency? I don't see any evidence of it. According to gambiaman, she is strong in the Cabra area? As I said, there are way more voters than those in that geographical area. I still don't rate her chances, and it's more to do with the SF policies than anything else. I don't think they have a handle on economics and how to get our economy going again.

    So much for Mary F then, not looking good. Nor Cyprian Brady. maybe a FF wipeout????

    Labour might do well out of this, maybe Aine Clancy will get elected also. I'll have to find out a bit more about her views and policies.

    The supporters of Paschal Donohoe have done a great job with the posters, they seem very numerous. I heard that supporters for Cyprian Brady put a load of his posters near her home, not the done thing I'm afraid. I only saw one poster there this morning.

    I wonder will any of the candidates be out canvassing this weekend? I'd love to meet them, I must prepare some questions for the door-callers.

    At least it will be all over soon.


    MLMcD has the SF machine in DubCentral behind her - Kehoe's Cabra lot and the other end who were behind Burke till he got elected on a SF ticket to the City Council last year then left SF.
    I don't think Burke has a snowballs chance in hell of bringing the SF vote with him (I don't live that end of DubC so I am gathering this info from speaking to canvassers etc and reading up on the constituency politics)
    So, my prediction of a SF win here is based on her profile, her strong groundworkers, the swing to SF.

    I don't think the debate program last night will affect Fitzpatrick's vote in the slightest - she'll get the majority of whatever is left of the FF core vote here but seriously, any non-FF voters in DubC should take a look at it on RTE Player - out of her depth, a parish-pumper with no ideas only vague soundbites which from a FFer, sound worse than hollow.

    I'd love to here from anyone living around O Sullivan's area on how she's faring in local opinion? I've heard she's not too popular for siding with FF/GP on a few votes in the Dail?


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    #49
    alastair
    Registered Users Posts: 19,307 ✭✭✭✭alastair


    gambiaman wrote: »
    I don't think Burke has a snowballs chance in hell of bringing the SF vote with him (I don't live that end of DubC so I am gathering this info from speaking to canvassers etc and reading up on the constituency politics)

    You'd be wrong. Christy Burke has enormous good will on account of years of personal constituency work - much of the SF vote in Burke's neck of the woods was/is actually the Burke vote. The shambles that was Mary Lou's last run in Dub Central speaks volumes for the SF 'machine'. It may well be a different story in Nicky Kehoe land, but given the loyalty shown to Kehoe over Mary Lou I wouldn't be so sure.

    Christy Burke won't be elected, but he may well help sink Mary Lou.


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    #50
    p to the e
    Registered Users Posts: 2,303 ✭✭✭p to the e


    gambiaman wrote: »
    Also,

    Cieran Perry Left (Ind)
    Got there before me. I'd predict the final tally being between Mary Lou and Mary Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick was shunned by Ahern after the last election even though she had a huge percentage of votes.


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    #51
    Pal
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,115 ✭✭✭Pal


    Mary Fitz will show in.
    Aine Clancy looks good too.
    Joe most probably.
    Pascal and Maureen done deals too.

    And a good day for Dublin Central will be punting Mary Lou to oblivion.


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    #52
    RetroBate
    Closed Accounts Posts: 89 ✭✭RetroBate


    Pal wrote: »
    Mary Fitz will show in.
    Aine Clancy looks good too.
    Joe most probably.
    Pascal and Maureen done deals too.

    And a good day for Dublin Central will be punting Mary Lou to oblivion.


    I think you're being a bit generous. Dublin Central is a 4 seat constituency.


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    #53
    Dandelion6
    Registered Users Posts: 1,405 ✭✭✭Dandelion6


    feelingstressed wrote: »
    Christy Burke has a profile.
    But when I lived in Dublin Central it was a big issue that Mary Lou didn't even live in the area! Maybe it should not matter for national elections but it does to voters.

    Christy Burke doesn't live in the area either. And neither does Bertie.

    I think Mary Lou's problem last time was that it was perceived (rightly) that SF thought Dublin Central was like West Belfast where someone could get elected just by being seen standing next to Gerry A. They won't make that mistake this time. She's been working away in the Cabra end for years now (she lives there too) and has been seen in NIC a lot more lately. By no means is she a shoo-in but I think she'll get a lot more than she did in 2007, especially with the general rise in SF's support.

    Burke has pockets of strong support in NIC but nothing in Cabra so if Nicky Kehoe's people are backing MLM he hasn't got a hope. It remains to be seen how much he takes from MLM and how many of his transfers she gets if he goes out early, I think that's the big question.

    Mary Fitzpatrick also has a good chance because there are still people in this constituency who would vote FF even if they stood Robert Mugabe, as well as FFers who would be tempted to vote someone else this time as a protest vote but will give her the vote because she wasn't one of those FFers. But hopefully enough will split to Brady to keep FF out.

    I think Maureen O'Sullivan will get in, even though she's no Tony Gregory. She's a safe vote for people who don't like any of the main parties and she'll get a lot of second preferences. None of the other independents have a high enough profile (Perry does in Cabra but not in NIC).

    Donohoe will get in, there's definitely a FG seat here now. And Costello is safe. Labour are useless at vote management so I can't see them pulling in a second.

    The Greens... ha ha... enough said.

    Does anyone know anything about Liam Johnston who's running for Fis Nua. I sort of like their platform but would want to know more about him personally.

    My prediction
    1 Lab
    1 FG
    1 Ind (O'Sullivan)
    1 SF or FF ... too close to call


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    #54
    DRUMMERS
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6 ✭DRUMMERS


    Travel is good wrote: »
    Christy Burke is ex SF. I'm not sure about Maureen O'Sullivan, that's an interesting question & would make a difference to us voters. I'm just a bit wary of SF, as I'm old enough to remember all of the atrocities.

    I'm very surprised to hear Mary Lou now lives in the constituency, as I thought she was living in Rathmines for the last election. I've never heard anything about her working locally, though she may well have been active around the Ballybough area. I'm still not rating her chances though.

    It's a pity Mary Fitz is a member of FF, one wonders whether that party will ever change. Of the Marys, I'd prefer to vote for her rather than Mary Lou as I don't agree with SF policies, and that's my choice.

    Over the next few weeks I'm going to examine closely all of the parties' policies. I don't think any of us can afford to make any mistakes in who we vote in for the next government!

    I live in the constituency mary lou only moved into the constituency over a year ago to a posh house in ashington on navan road she is not active in the area only opened an office in ballybough but if she does not win the election she will be gone out of there she is turning up to everything now in the area just looking to get elected she does not know how the ordinary person in the inner city has to survive she has her salary from sinn fein plus her husbands big salary out of bord gais how would she know what it is like to survive on welfare 188 euro being unemployed she is using the people of dublin central for her own politcal gain to get a seat for sinn fein in dublin central at least the independent candidate cllr christy burke has worked in the constituency for over 25 years and he knows what the daily struggles the people of dublin central have mary lou has not got a clue ! mary lou because there is an election will turn up to everything in dublin central promise the world but if she does not get in she will be gone and the ordinary people in dublin central can see from what happened previously mary lou can not be depended on promise the world but cannot be relied on


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    #55
    DRUMMERS
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6 ✭DRUMMERS


    alastair wrote: »
    Mary Lou has no support base in Ballybough - Christy Burke will continue to drink her milkshake here, so unless she's convinced Cabra that she's no carpetbagger, I'm not seeing her do much better than last time out.

    After the first three (Costello, Donohue, O'Sullivan) it's going to be a three-way race between Fitzpatrick, McDonald, and Clancy. I would'nt put money on it, but my guess is it'll be Fitzpatrick.

    agree cllr christy burke ind has the support base in ballybough mary lou only moved to ashington on navan road over a year ago to try and win a seat in dublin central for sf cllr burke ind has done the work in the constituency for over 25 years and its time the people of the area took this in board and elected him he has done the work . mary lou has not got a chance she has not done the work in the area she is using the people of dublin central for her own politcal gain as soon as the election is over she will be gone out of the area


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    #56
    DRUMMERS
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6 ✭DRUMMERS


    alastair wrote: »
    You'd be wrong. Christy Burke has enormous good will on account of years of personal constituency work - much of the SF vote in Burke's neck of the woods was/is actually the Burke vote. The shambles that was Mary Lou's last run in Dub Central speaks volumes for the SF 'machine'. It may well be a different story in Nicky Kehoe land, but given the loyalty shown to Kehoe over Mary Lou I wouldn't be so sure.

    Christy Burke won't be elected, but he may well help sink Mary Lou.


    you may think Cllr Christy Burke Ind wont be elected but as a person who lives in this continuency he stands a better chance than Mary Lou He has worked in the Area for over 25 years - doing good work for the people in this area he was born in this constituency Mary Lou comes from Rathgar and previously was with FF and only moved into Dublin Central to Ashington on the Navan Road, dont think she has all of Cabra sowed up either as a lot of Keoghs vote was not a republican vote either People who voted for Keogh saw that SF shafted Keogh for the younger degree educated Mary Lou looked good on the posters . At present Mary Lou is only in dublin central to get elected she does not care aboout the people of dublin central trying to survice if she does not get in she will be gone Cllr Burke Ind is the coucillor who has done the work in the area Mary Lou has as we know from her previous runs her party voted with FF on the Budget which she tried to deny on Pat Kenny Radio Show and when his researchers got the Dail transcripts it was proven that they Did We in Dublin Central can see through her and do not trust her at least Cllr Christy Burke Ind is one of us and has worked with us down through the years in helping people with housing drug addiction and knows what goes on in our area at present Mary lou because there is an election would turn up to the opening of an envelope in dublin central but this is her tactic to get elected she wil be gone after that when she was in the EU what did she do for the people of Dublin Central nothing and if she gets elected she will be like maureen o sullivan who voted with F F we dont trustMary lou


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    #57
    DRUMMERS
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6 ✭DRUMMERS


    :mad:
    Pal wrote: »
    Mary Fitz will show in.
    Aine Clancy looks good too.
    Joe most probably.
    Pascal and Maureen done deals too.

    And a good day for Dublin Central will be punting Mary Lou to oblivion.


    Agree Mary Lou is not the right person for Dublin Central Maybe run her in Rathgar or some where on the South Side but not to keep shoving her on the people of Dublin Central We are sick of her :cool:


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    #58
    Dandelion6
    Registered Users Posts: 1,405 ✭✭✭Dandelion6


    DRUMMERS wrote: »
    her party voted with FF on the Budget which she tried to deny on Pat Kenny Radio Show

    If it was claimed that they voted with FF on the budget then she was right to deny it, because they didn't. Neither did Maureen O'Sullivan.

    You're thinking of the bank guarantee, which SF initially supported and then changed their minds.


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    #59
    Sir Oxman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,492 ✭✭✭Sir Oxman


    DRUMMERS wrote: »
    :mad:


    Agree Mary Lou is not the right person for Dublin Central Maybe run her in Rathgar or some where on the South Side but not to keep shoving her on the people of Dublin Central We are sick of her :cool:


    It'd be nice if you took your blinkers off for a second and posted who you think will be elected in DubC rather than this anti-MLMcD/pro-Burke stuff!

    I despise FF but recognise Fitzpatrick has a chance of a seat here.
    I'm not a SF voter but recognise SF may take a seat here.

    Kehoe's lot, including Kehoe AFAIK (if there's someone involved in the Cabra end can you post?) are behind SF in this election.
    Burke may well be strong over his side but won';t pull in the votes throughout DubC to get elected. This is the first election I think he has been in where he hasn't had the SF party organisation behind him so it remains to be seen whether he can pull in the votes given him under the SF banner through the last decade or two and dent SF's chances.


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    #60
    chinguetti
    Registered Users Posts: 2,546 ✭✭✭chinguetti


    Fitzpatrick will have a better chance than Brady (he was canvassing in my street in January and didn't even ring doorbells, just dropped in leaflets) as everyone knows that Bertie shafted her twice.

    Burke might take alot of natural SF votes that they relied on before.

    There is the last seat between FF and SF but they might cancel each other out and leave Labour get a second seat by default.

    FG, Costello and O'Sullivan should get in easily enough.


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    #61
    MDSS
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1 ✭MDSS


    Well as fare as I'm concerned Christy Burke is the only Candidate that i would love to see getting a seat. I have great respect for himself Tony Gregory and Joe Costello them 3 men have kept the inner city and surrounding areas going in the last 20 years. I think Christy Burke is one of the most hardest working politicians in Dublin today. As for Mary Lu i wish her the best of luck but i think the people can see rigth trough her. Mary is not a Dublin Central woman, she comes from a Fina fail background and everyone knowes that her policies and mandate haven't changed in the past 5 years. When the last elections where over the only councilor i heard from (with in a week) was Christy Burke. I hate politics and hate voting but for the first time in my life I'm going to vote and ill think i will vote with my head. My Mother quoted to me this morning that she would love to See the working class candidate's getting into Dail Eireann because they no what it's to live in poverty, I have to say i agree with her. We need people like Christy,Joe and other independents to put it up to the man thats going to make the country worse (ENDA KENNY) so i hope you people see sence.I also hope that Vincent Brown will get the candidates from Dublin central onto his live show to give the people a chance to see who are the most honest politicians running in our area.


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