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Official Free Money Betting Superthread 2011/12

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,549 ✭✭✭✭Judgement Day


    Lyon v Toulouse - Gone for McAllister to score a try @13/2, 2 @45/1 and 3 @ 500/1. Dream debut anyone?:)

    Another fine mess you got me into! Woeful match, woeful stream and woeful result. 19 - 9 to Toulouse. I feel a bit like Ireland heading into the World Cup - battered - but things can only get better can't they? :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,053 ✭✭✭Gracelessly Tom


    Another fine mess you got me into! Woeful match, woeful stream and woeful result. 19 - 9 to Toulouse. I feel a bit like Ireland heading into the World Cup - battered - but things can only get better can't they? :D

    Tell me about it! I've tickets to the Toulouse v Racing Metro game next Sat and if it's like this game I'll stay in the bar at half time!! :p

    Glad my saver bet helped me out.... oh wait....


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,053 ✭✭✭Gracelessly Tom


    French team has just been put up on another thread, -47 looks like easy money v Japan.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,881 ✭✭✭PhatPiggins


    French team has just been put up on another thread, -47 looks like easy money v Japan.

    I won't pretend to know anything about Japanese rugby but didn't they make the final of the Pacific Cup this year and push Italy hard in Rome?

    One thing I do remember well from the last WC is that so many of the minows like Portugal,Namibia,USA,etc all beat the caps against everyone bar NZ.

    That said I'll probably follow you on the -47 :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,053 ✭✭✭Gracelessly Tom


    I won't pretend to know anything about Japanese rugby but didn't they make the final of the Pacific Cup this year and push Italy hard in Rome?

    One thing I do remember well from the last WC is that so many of the minows like Portugal,Namibia,USA,etc all beat the caps against everyone bar NZ.

    That said I'll probably follow you on the -47 :pac:

    Japan won the PNC this year. Mind you not sure how strong the island teams were. Samoa thumped them and then rested players to get ready for the Aus game. Reckon the reason they nearly did Italy was a combination of them having games under their belt, Italy having their first outing and maybe a little complacency. Although that last bit is pure conjecture.

    I remember getting burnt on a few of those spreads last RWC but France have a full strength team, they really should cover the spread. But then France should do a lot of things they don't end up doing!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 24,815 ✭✭✭✭emmet02


    I like backing the minnows in all the spreads, though I imagine the France and NZ spreads are the closest to being correct.

    Especially in the opening games of the competition I like the unders in most cases.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,067 ✭✭✭✭wp_rathead


    Just went on to Paddy Power to check the top tryscorer odds and Alesana Tuilagi is 500/1!! With 4 places he's got to be e/w value. If Samoa do manage to get through he could easily score a few tries and grab a place.

    Am I missing something (is he injured) or are they actually crazy odds?

    down to 80/1 now :(
    i missed the boat looks like


    i fancy Romania +36 Vs Scotland, Scots backs are poor


  • Registered Users Posts: 624 ✭✭✭gudede


    Well I can't wait till Friday, It's just a pity I'm going to be stuck in work mad2.gifmad2.gif

    Top try scorer

    Looking at the pools (http://www.rugbyworldcup.com/mm/Documen ... 92_PDF.pdf) Pool A and Pool C look the easiest. I expect France and New Zealand to score plenty against Tonga, Japan and Canada. In Pool C I expect Australia to score alot of tries against Italy, USA and Russia. I can't see Ireland scoring that many tries.

    So the question then is who to back out of France, Australia and New Zealand. So I checked out the following link and decided to follow his advice as he knows more than me lol.gif

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/rugby-world-c ... d=10748797

    Israel Dagg (New Zealand) 12/1 William Hills
    Zac Guildford (New Zealand) 12.5 Betfair
    Maxime Medard (France) 40 Betfair

    Also I think Ireland are two high on the outright market on betfair @ 55. I can't see them winning it but I think they fooled people with the four warm up games. The impression I got was that Ireland were just practising drills and didn't care about the result. Like in the first game against Scotland Ireland had no interest in having the ball. Ireland will give Australia a good match and it will be close. If they win that game they play Wales/Somoa who they should beat and then either England/France who they could beat and then there in the final. But if they lose, they'll play South Africa who they would also have a 50/50 chance of winning and if they do they won't be 55 anymore where you could lay them off. Only small stakes thou.



    I also made a couple of handicap bets for the weekend.

    1) Scotland V Romania - Romania +34points 10/11

    The last time Scotland beat a team by this score line was Canada back in November 2008 at home. They did beat Romania by 42 points in the 2007 World Cup but that was at home aswell. Back in March Romania only lost to Georgia by 7 points in a tight game and they also beat Georgia in March 2010 so that tells me they could be good up front. Scotland also seem to find it hard to score tries so a 5 try head start seems a good bet in my mind.

    2) France V Japan - France - 46points 10/11

    France are after naming a strong side and they will be looking to put out a marker. On a side note Maxime Medard is starting so I'm hoping he scores alot of tries.

    3) Ireland V USA - USA +36 points 10/11.

    Ireland will be beating nobody by this amount. Also giving the game is on September 11th and the Eddie O'Sullivan factor I fancy the USA here.

    Treble of the above three works out around 7/1

    4) Australia V Italy - Italy +32 points 10/11

    Italy never seem to get really hammered and it could be raining that day.
    These are the last couple of games between the two

    20 November 2010 Italy 14 - 32 Australia Stadio Artemio Franchi
    20 June 2009 Australia 34 - 12 Italy Etihad Stadium
    13 June 2009 Australia 31 - 8 Italy Canberra Stadium
    08 November 2008 Italy 20 - 30 Australia Stadio Euganeo
    11 November 2006 Italy 18 - 25 Australia Stadio Flaminio
    25 June 2005 Australia 69 - 21 Italy Telstra Dome

    So doing a 4fold gives you odds of 13/1


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 14,599 Mod ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    boyle sports has an offer where they refund losing top tryscorer bets if NZ doesn't reach the final.


  • Registered Users Posts: 24,815 ✭✭✭✭emmet02


    @gudede I like your reasoning behind them all!

    As posted above, bar NZ, teams rarely make mincemeat of the HC in the opening rounds. I reckon blindly backing the minnows HC across the whole group stages is a winning ploy.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 624 ✭✭✭gudede


    emmet02 wrote: »
    @gudede I like your reasoning behind them all!

    As posted above, bar NZ, teams rarely make mincemeat of the HC in the opening rounds. I reckon blindly backing the minnows HC across the whole group stages is a winning ploy.

    Teams are more professional now so you would think score lines would come down. The think with alot of the minnows their scrums would be strong so therefore that helps them keep the score down. Then on top of that only New Zealand, Australlia, France, England and maybe in form Wales could hammer teams. Well in my opinion anyway :P


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 14,599 Mod ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    emmet02 wrote: »
    As posted above, bar NZ, teams rarely make mincemeat of the HC in the opening rounds. I reckon blindly backing the minnows HC across the whole group stages is a winning ploy.
    I did that during the JWC and made a bit of a mint


  • Registered Users Posts: 624 ✭✭✭gudede


    boyle sports has an offer where they refund losing top tryscorer bets if NZ doesn't reach the final.

    where did you see that??? It's not on there "CRAP" website


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 14,599 Mod ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    gudede wrote: »
    where did you see that??? It's not on there "CRAP" website
    There were posters on the outside one of their shops today when I passed by


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,122 Mod ✭✭✭✭CatFromHue


    Australia's average winning margin against Italy in their last 4 games is 18 points. Paddy Power are offering Australia by 11-20 at 9/2. Now I think Italy could get stuck in here, depending on the weather and again Paddy Power are offering Australia by 1-10 at 6/1.

    I await the weather forecast eagerly for this game.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,053 ✭✭✭Gracelessly Tom


    USA total tournament tries with PP - over 4.5 @ evens.

    Looks tempting, they'll get 3 against Russia and then only need two more from the three big teams in the group.


  • Registered Users Posts: 24,815 ✭✭✭✭emmet02


    they wont get 3 vs Russia!

    It's got 16-11 all over it


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,317 ✭✭✭Yardie


    Hey lads, I just came across this market on Paddy Power and it looks like there could be an opportunity for nice earnings in it.

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/rugby-union/world-cup-2011?ev_oc_grp_ids=505743

    Russia and Tonga are the favourites @ 7/1 but these guys are unlikely to get past the group stages. However the teams that are likely to stay in tournament and thus play more games offer far more attractive odds like South Africa @ 20/1 and New Zealand @ 33/1.

    The main ones I fancy are Samoa @ 12/1 as their group matches vs Wales, Sth Africa and Fiji are all likely to be fiery affairs, plus they have a decent chance of progressing further in the tournament.

    The market is also offering 1/5 for top 3 places


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,549 ✭✭✭✭Judgement Day


    Yardie wrote: »
    Hey lads, I just came across this market on Paddy Power and it looks like there could be an opportunity for nice earnings in it.

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/rugby-union/world-cup-2011?ev_oc_grp_ids=505743

    Russia and Tonga are the favourites @ 7/1 but these guys are unlikely to get past the group stages. However the teams that are likely to stay in tournament and thus play more games offer far more attractive odds like South Africa @ 20/1 and New Zealand @ 33/1.

    The main ones I fancy are Samoa @ 12/1 as their group matches vs Wales, Sth Africa and Fiji are all likely to be fiery affairs, plus they have a decent chance of progressing further in the tournament.

    The market is also offering 1/5 for top 3 places

    Pity Mafi isn't playing for us and then you could bank on Ireland getting the most yellows. :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,317 ✭✭✭Yardie


    Peter Mafi isn't playing for us and then you could bank on Ireland getting the most yellows. :D

    Worried about Ireland getting out of group:o


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,881 ✭✭✭PhatPiggins


    Have taken Ireland -33 with Stan James. I think the cap will be -38/39 when the teams are announced and I've had the misfortune of seeing a bit of the USA the past 3 seasons and they are really awful.


  • Registered Users Posts: 24,815 ✭✭✭✭emmet02


    Have taken Ireland -33 with Stan James. I think the cap will be -38/39 when the teams are announced and I've had the misfortune of seeing a bit of the USA the past 3 seasons and they are really awful.

    From the match thread
    leincar wrote: »
    Just arrived back at my hotel. The weather forecast for Sunday is heavy rain in the morning followed by showers in the late afternoon. Its supposed to be pretty windy as well.

    I dunno if I agree with you on the spread widening PhatPiggins, I probably would've set the line closer to 28


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,881 ✭✭✭PhatPiggins


    emmet02 wrote: »
    From the match thread


    I dunno if I agree with you on the spread widening PhatPiggins, I probably would've set the line closer to 28

    When the USA name their "A collection of 6'6 ex football players that we found in a bar in Vegas XV" I'd say it might.

    Worse case scenario we'll get at least 12 kickable penalties from the Americans. We're surely good for a couple of tries :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 24,815 ✭✭✭✭emmet02


    When the USA name their "A collection of 6'6 ex football players that we found in a bar in Vegas XV" I'd say it might.

    Worse case scenario we'll get at least 12 kickable penalties from the Americans. We're surely good for a couple of tries :rolleyes:

    The Russians were surely good for a 12 or so goals last night too though...


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,881 ✭✭✭PhatPiggins


    emmet02 wrote: »
    The Russians were surely good for a 12 or so goals last night too though...

    Richard Dunne would probably start for the Americans too :pac:

    There's no such thing as a sure thing but I saw the Yanks in the last couple of Churchill Cups and God help them they were brain dead. They'd be a good bet for the most yellow cards too.

    Its Ireland though so its always a risk


  • Registered Users Posts: 277 ✭✭rockman15


    Richard Dunne would probably start for the Americans too :pac:

    There's no such thing as a sure thing but I saw the Yanks in the last couple of Churchill Cups and God help them they were brain dead. They'd be a good bet for the most yellow cards too.

    Its Ireland though so its always a risk

    best value to be had here will be the half time over/under..IN PLAY.

    Id expect it to be about 21/22 anything more and I'll be on the under.

    we cant score, the US will be fired up for the first 15 and then start to creek. seems about right to me


  • Registered Users Posts: 24,815 ✭✭✭✭emmet02


    I like that rockman, there should be some movement on that line in play alright.

    I'm very green at inplay betting though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,881 ✭✭✭PhatPiggins


    emmet02 wrote: »
    I like that rockman, there should be some movement on that line in play alright.

    I'm very green at inplay betting though.

    You should get more right when you bet inplay but you'll make more money if you can pick them before KO.

    I usually only bet on the outright winner inplay. Handicaps are messy inplay and although you can usually get a feel for unders/overs after the first 10 minutes you'll get offered crappy prices as the bookies will figure it out quicker.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,549 ✭✭✭✭Judgement Day


    Have taken Ireland -33 with Stan James. I think the cap will be -38/39 when the teams are announced and I've had the misfortune of seeing a bit of the USA the past 3 seasons and they are really awful.

    Thinking of going with Ireland by more than 15 at half time at 5/6. Given that it may be wet and Ireland should get away to a good start before losing shape with subs towards the end of the game.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 624 ✭✭✭gudede


    You mite think that Ireland could beat a team by more than 30 points and that's fair enough. But how you could trust them enough to actually back them is beyond me. Who's going to score these tries and who's going to set them up and who apart form Sean O'Brien is going to break lines. Don't say Earls, O'Driscoll etc etc because the cold facts of the situation is these players have FAILED to do it in the past and could very easily fail to do it again. So in my mind there is only two options.

    1- Back USA +33
    OR
    2- Don't make any bet.

    Seriously how can ye back Ireland, Ireland will win but Ireland don't hammer teams. If they do manage to beat the handicap they probably won't do it against Russia.

    I'm not being negative Ireland but I just don't think they have the set up to score 5-9 tries a competition never mind in a match


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