Official Free Money Betting Superthread 2011/12

PhatPiggins · 07-09-2011 7:52pm

Judgement Day wrote: »

Thinking of going with Ireland by more than 15 at half time at 5/6. Given that it may be wet and Ireland should get away to a good start before losing shape with subs towards the end of the game.

I'd be the opposite i.e the USA will hang in till half time and run out of juice in the last third.

Having read some of the excellent comments on here (its refreshing to have a thread with nothing but productive comments) I'm half tempted to take the USA +36 as well. I still think the line will be higher come Friday though.

rockman15 · 07-09-2011 8:24pm

PhatPiggins wrote: »

You should get more right when you bet inplay but you'll make more money if you can pick them before KO.

I usually only bet on the outright winner inplay. Handicaps are messy inplay and although you can usually get a feel for unders/overs after the first 10 minutes you'll get offered crappy prices as the bookies will figure it out quicker.

I wouldnt agree with that. Most of my money is made on in play. In the vast majority of cases the bookies loose the run of themselves and offer ridiculous O/U...especially in the S15 competition the last 2 years.

Ok you wont get anything beyond evens, but the probability tips a lot in your favour. Afaik most of the inplay stuff is an automated matrice designed to keep scores in check. Obviously they wont have someone on every match so there is potential to see huge gaps until a bookie corrects it. I think the first half O/U has been my best returning bet over the last year. They seem to get the total tries at half time arse ways as well.

If you can read a game well, you can make money in the in play stuff.
@Emmet02: if you use a fast platform or fast bet utility on a site for in play bets you can get some great O/U value.

MungBean · 07-09-2011 8:26pm

USA (+33.0) @ 10/11
Italy (+30.0) @ 10/11
Japan (+47.0) @ 10/11
Tonga (+60.0) @ 10/11
Namibia (+30.0) @ 10/11
Romania (+36.0) @ 10/11

Accumulator.

Come on the underdogs !!!

duckysauce · 07-09-2011 8:59pm

Skunkle wrote: »

USA (+33.0) @ 10/11
Italy (+30.0) @ 10/11
Japan (+47.0) @ 10/11
Tonga (+60.0) @ 10/11
Namibia (+30.0) @ 10/11
Romania (+36.0) @ 10/11

Accumulator.

Come on the underdogs !!!

can see Namibia getting murdered would go with the rest alright

Gracelessly Tom · 07-09-2011 10:58pm

I'm gonna go against the grain here, I think that despite the poor warm up results we're gonna do damage to the Americans. They came second last in the Churchill cup and despite the moans Ireland are more than capable of putting away a team like this. I'm on us -33.

profitius · 07-09-2011 11:09pm

Skunkle wrote: »

USA (+33.0) @ 10/11
Italy (+30.0) @ 10/11
Japan (+47.0) @ 10/11
Tonga (+60.0) @ 10/11
Namibia (+30.0) @ 10/11
Romania (+36.0) @ 10/11

Accumulator.

Come on the underdogs !!!

Italy +30pts looks good. The Aussies will have one eye on Ireland and the Italians will be fired up for their first match.

Gracelessly Tom wrote: »

I'm gonna go against the grain here, I think that despite the poor warm up results we're gonna do damage to the Americans. They came second last in the Churchill cup and despite the moans Ireland are more than capable of putting away a team like this. I'm on us -33.

I think so too. Ireland should be fired up and should have far to much class for the USA. The mood in the camp is good too, unlike 2007. I'm not betting on it though.

Yardie · 07-09-2011 11:54pm

Top Russia Try scorer

Vasily Artemyev- 6/1

Former Irish Schools player and Blackrock college try machine is the most likely of any Ruskies to dot down. 6/1 is a generous price.

profitius · 08-09-2011 3:42pm

I'm doing a double. Ospreys and Ulster. The price is about 1/2.

Edinburgh and Aironi have alot of players missing, so have the Ospreys and ulster but they have much stronger squads.

GerM · 08-09-2011 4:23pm

My prayer bet: Richie McCaw is 80/1 to be top NZ try scorer. I think NZ are going to heavily chop and change their backs for the pools but they can't really do it as much in the back row with their injuries so he might be looking at 3 starts in the pools. Very good try rate for a forward and bagged himself 3 in 2007.

€10 e/w on him which places 3. Long shot but I'll have a look at the more realistic ones later.

PhatPiggins · 08-09-2011 6:15pm

profitius wrote: »

I'm doing a double. Ospreys and Ulster. The price is about 1/2.

Edinburgh and Aironi have alot of players missing, so have the Ospreys and ulster but they have much stronger squads.

You could add England and South Africa to that for pretty much a banker

monaghanman10 · 08-09-2011 6:19pm

gone with dagg @13/2 and SBW @11/1 for first tryscorer tomorrow,10r on each

thomond2006 · 08-09-2011 7:37pm

The spread is France -45 on PP at the moment. I really fancy them to cover that (provided they turn up!

)

cup of tea · 08-09-2011 7:41pm

thomond2006 wrote: »

The spread is France -45 on PP at the moment. I really fancy them to cover that (provided they turn up! )

-44 bet365

emmet02 · 08-09-2011 7:49pm

the bet of the weekend is Romania to keep Scotland to below the HC imo

Juwwi · 08-09-2011 7:51pm

All the handicaps seem to bet getting lower.

Tonga were +70 Japan +52 at there highest.

I put €100 on Tonga +65 with Boyles at 10/11 yesterday

and am going to put €100 on NZ -59 with PP 1/1.

Heres hoping I hit the jackpot

duckysauce · 08-09-2011 8:15pm

it will be a draw

wixfjord · 08-09-2011 8:19pm

Finally got around to placing my outright bets.

Gone for
3pts Aus to win outright
2 points e/w on Digby Ioane Top Tryscorer
1 point e/w on France to win outright

TheMilkyPirate · 08-09-2011 9:27pm

France are even money to reach the semi finals. What do you all think i think it's a great price.

If they top their group they play argentina in the quarters more than likely.

If they finish second which is the more likely they face england who they are more than capable of beating.

EDIT: Just seen their 6/4 to be top 6 nations team.

Podge_irl · 08-09-2011 9:29pm

baraca wrote: »

France are even money to reach the semi finals. What do you all think i think it's a great price.

If they top their group they play argentina in the quarters more than likely.

If they finish second which is the more likely they face england who they are more than capable of beating.

EDIT: Just seen their 6/4 to be top 6 nations team.

More then capable of beating them indeed, but I wouldn't expect them to.

PhatPiggins · 08-09-2011 9:33pm

baraca wrote: »

France are even money to reach the semi finals. What do you all think i think it's a great price.

If they top their group they play argentina in the quarters more than likely.

If they finish second which is the more likely they face england who they are more than capable of beating.

EDIT: Just seen their 6/4 to be top 6 nations team.

France are more then capable of beating anyone but they've played England in 4 WC's and lost them all. No one does a mental blockage like the French do against the English, except maybe Ireland against France (how ironic).

PhatPiggins · 08-09-2011 9:43pm

thomond2006 wrote: »

The spread is France -45 on PP at the moment. I really fancy them to cover that (provided they turn up! )

Japan can't compete with the French forwards so they're going to have to play fast and lose which will suit the French just fine. I can see France running up a monster scrore in this one.

Judgement Day · 08-09-2011 10:05pm

PhatPiggins wrote: »

Japan can't compete with the French forwards so they're going to have to play fast and lose which will suit the French just fine. I can see France running up a monster scrore in this one.

I'll find out where you live if you given me a bum steer on this one.

PhatPiggins · 08-09-2011 10:09pm

Judgement Day wrote: »

I'll find out where you live if you given me a bum steer on this one.

I'm standing behind you
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Ha ha, made you look

Judgement Day · 08-09-2011 11:23pm

http://www.tourism.net.nz/listings/nztg/visitor-information/117380?from=http://www.tourism.net.nz/region/auckland/visitor-information/web-cams/other-listings/

Auckland from a live webcam a few minutes ago. Weather looks smashing for a try fest.

NZ by more than 28 points at half time @ 10/11
More than 36.5 points in the 1st half @ 5/6

antogz1979 · 09-09-2011 8:52am

I hope it won't come back to bite me, but NZ try first scoring play today is 8/11. I taught it would be more 1/2, 2/5. I can't see any other outcome. The only worry is that they would go for 3 points if they got a close in penalty. I can't see them going for the post, i'd say they will run everything.
One more, first try in the match to be scored by a forward 5/2 with PP.

CIARAN_BOYLE · 09-09-2011 9:37am

antogz1979 wrote: »

I hope it won't come back to bite me, but NZ try first scoring play today is 8/11. I taught it would be more 1/2, 2/5. I can't see any other outcome. The only worry is that they would go for 3 points if they got a close in penalty. I can't see them going for the post, i'd say they will run everything.
One more, first try in the match to be scored by a forward 5/2 with PP.

you lost the try scoring bet

thomond2006 · 09-09-2011 9:45am

monaghanman10 wrote: »

gone with dagg @13/2 and SBW @11/1 for first tryscorer tomorrow,10r on each

Well done!

monaghanman10 · 09-09-2011 9:46am

cheers checked my slip there and it was actually 15/2 so happy days.now for new zealand to win by 60 and it will be a successful start

CIARAN_BOYLE · 09-09-2011 11:04am

Anyone who has bet on NZ to to cover the spread is going too suffer. I can't see NZ scoring another 30 minutes in 10 minutes

emmet02 · 09-09-2011 11:10am

And our strategy of backing the minnow in the big spread games has a 100% strike rate.

Pity I didn't believe it myself

Official Free Money Betting Superthread 2011/12

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