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Only solution is for Ireland to leave the euro

123468

Comments

  • #152
    kaymin
    Registered Users Posts: 1,478 ✭✭✭kaymin


    imitation wrote: »
    Honestly, if you think Ireland and Argentina are in the same boat, and that we should mimic there desperate actions, you`d want to take a deep breath and look outside the window.



    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_economic_crisis_%281999%E2%80%932002%29

    What does this prove? The period you refer to was mostly before Argentina defaulted / devalued.


  • #153
    kaymin
    Registered Users Posts: 1,478 ✭✭✭kaymin


    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    oh the fun continues....


    if the likes of UK (with their devaluations) are being savaged, god help if Ireland was "floating" along on its own now.....

    but of course lets continue to ignore facts and reality in this thread


    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100003763/britain-and-the-pigs/



    sterling1.jpg

    You seem to think the UK doesn't want a weak pound - a weak pound suits the UK economy now as it makes British companies more competitive and lessens job losses. Your focus seems to be solely on wealth preservation.


  • #154
    ei.sdraob
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    kaymin wrote: »
    You seem to think the UK doesn't want a weak pound - a weak pound suits the UK economy now as it makes British companies more competitive and lessens job losses. Your focus seems to be solely on wealth preservation.

    why dont you read this post

    devaluation has not accomplished anything in UK

    if anything their trade position got worse

    anyways in the news today
    The UK inflation rate rose to 3.5% in January - the fastest annual pace for 14 months - from 2.9% the month before, official figures have shown.

    all that money printing to devalue is backfiring now, and of course anything that has to be imported into UK went up in price (in local currency)



    yet again in this thread im providing evidence about this being a bad idea and all i get from you and @skepticone is opinion and same waffle

    /


  • #155
    cson
    Registered Users Posts: 14,397 ✭✭✭✭cson


    SkepticOne wrote: »
    1. Ireland defaults and leaves the Euro.
    2. Other states breach EU treaties and impose tariffs on Ireland even though technically Ireland is still in the Euro and at this stage entitled to free trade within the EU.

    :confused:

    Computer says no.


  • #156
    K-9
    Registered Users Posts: 43,311 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    kaymin wrote: »
    Must have misunderstood you then....

    I don't think the property bubble would have arisen if we were outside the euro because I believe the central bank would have raised interest rates which should put a halt to property price rises.

    The same Central Bank that did nothing on loan repayment affordability ratios and 100% mortgages? What makes you think that this same organisation would have stepped in with interest rates?

    Lack of regulation here had just as much, if not more, of an effect here than interest rates.

    Spains banking system is a good example, though they are having their own problems now.

    Again, interest rates did rise in the summer of 06, the market levelled of. Cue McDowell and the stamp duty debacle, Cowen doubling mortgage interest relief for FTB's and FG/Labour were no better with their proposals.

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



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  • #157
    SkepticOne
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,718 ✭✭✭SkepticOne


    cson wrote: »
    :confused:

    Computer says no.
    Meant to say EU.


  • #158
    ShowMeTheCash
    Registered Users Posts: 2,651 ✭✭✭ShowMeTheCash


    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    why dont you read this post

    devaluation has not accomplished anything in UK

    if anything their trade position got worse

    anyways in the news today



    all that money printing to devalue is backfiring now, and of course anything that has to be imported into UK went up in price (in local currency)



    yet again in this thread im providing evidence about this being a bad idea and all i get from you and @skepticone is opinion and same waffle

    /

    UK are in control of what they do with their currency, with the euro we are simply along for the ride.
    The weakening of the sterling was always going to have an impact on the UK economy now being seen with interest rates. But this was always going to happen, same will happen here in the next few years, interest rate will shoot up and up, the USA done the same thing if only a year or two before the UK and now that Greece is going to go down the pan, and probably Spain and Ireland the euro will be devalued also, unfortunately it might already be too late for us. We are not compedative therefore dead in the water! I was listening to Today FM that dude that brought Intel to ireland said, when Intel came to ireland there was 13 reasons why they came here, of the 13 only 1 remains low corporation tax.

    Why are we so expensive??


  • #159
    greendom
    Registered Users Posts: 16,382 ✭✭✭✭greendom


    It is the solution if the problem you're trying to solve is

    " How do you put the final nail in the coffin of our sorry state of an economy?"


  • #160
    ShowMeTheCash
    Registered Users Posts: 2,651 ✭✭✭ShowMeTheCash


    greendom wrote: »
    It is the solution if the problem you're trying to solve is

    " How do you put the final nail in the coffin of our sorry state of an economy?"


    I think we should never have joined, I think a lot of jobs could have been saved.
    But seeing we do not have a crystal ball, the reasons for leaving Germany are going to have to tackle now anyway - The euro will be devalued just matter of time!


  • #161
    greendom
    Registered Users Posts: 16,382 ✭✭✭✭greendom


    ShowMeTheCash wrote: »
    I think we should never have joined, I think a lot of jobs could have been saved.
    But seeing we do not have a crystal ball, the reasons for leaving Germany are going to have to tackle now anyway - The euro will be devalued just matter of time!

    And an awful lot more wouldn't have been created in the first place.


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  • #162
    ShowMeTheCash
    Registered Users Posts: 2,651 ✭✭✭ShowMeTheCash


    greendom wrote: »
    And an awful lot more wouldn't have been created in the first place.


    What jobs where created?


  • #163
    greendom
    Registered Users Posts: 16,382 ✭✭✭✭greendom


    ShowMeTheCash wrote: »
    What jobs where created?

    I'm referring to the MNCs that came to Ireland and became the bedrock of the Celtic Tiger. Many came in the 90s but they came because Ireland was at the core of the euro project.


  • #164
    kaymin
    Registered Users Posts: 1,478 ✭✭✭kaymin


    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    why dont you read this post

    devaluation has not accomplished anything in UK

    if anything their trade position got worse

    anyways in the news today



    all that money printing to devalue is backfiring now, and of course anything that has to be imported into UK went up in price (in local currency)



    yet again in this thread im providing evidence about this being a bad idea and all i get from you and @skepticone is opinion and same waffle

    /

    But inflation is a good thing when there's a recession! It counteracts the effects of the recession as it encourages spending now.

    What would be the consequences for the UK trade position had they not taken the course of action they took? It would inevitably have been far worse.

    It's just commonsense not opinion.


  • #165
    ShowMeTheCash
    Registered Users Posts: 2,651 ✭✭✭ShowMeTheCash


    greendom wrote: »
    I'm referring to the MNCs that came to Ireland and became the bedrock of the Celtic Tiger. Many came in the 90s but they came because Ireland was at the core of the euro project.

    We did not need to join the euro, low corporation tax and back door deals with Charlie and Bertie got most of the big MNC's on board - these MNC will leave us high and dry which a lot are doing now... (DELL) (SEAGATE) Great plan for 15 years of growth we have managed to get into so much debit we are going to be paying for it for the next 50.

    It all comes down to money, europe and the west in general are not compedative, India and China will do your job and mine for a 1/5 of the price, taking the euro we traded in any chance to compete for our own jobs.


  • #166
    kaymin
    Registered Users Posts: 1,478 ✭✭✭kaymin


    greendom wrote: »
    I'm referring to the MNCs that came to Ireland and became the bedrock of the Celtic Tiger. Many came in the 90s but they came because Ireland was at the core of the euro project.

    But Intel didn't list euro membership 20 years ago and aren't listing it now as a reason why they came to Ireland.


  • #167
    kaymin
    Registered Users Posts: 1,478 ✭✭✭kaymin


    K-9 wrote: »
    The same Central Bank that did nothing on loan repayment affordability ratios and 100% mortgages? What makes you think that this same organisation would have stepped in with interest rates?

    Lack of regulation here had just as much, if not more, of an effect here than interest rates.

    Spains banking system is a good example, though they are having their own problems now.

    Again, interest rates did rise in the summer of 06, the market levelled of. Cue McDowell and the stamp duty debacle, Cowen doubling mortgage interest relief for FTB's and FG/Labour were no better with their proposals.

    The CB managed fine when they had control of interest rates before the euro was introduced.

    Of course I agree the government stoked the bubble but higher interest rates would have more than counteracted these actions in my view.


  • #168
    K-9
    Registered Users Posts: 43,311 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    kaymin wrote: »
    The CB managed fine when they had control of interest rates before the euro was introduced.

    Of course I agree the government stoked the bubble but higher interest rates would have more than counteracted these actions in my view.

    OK, what happened in the last devaluation crisis we had?

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



  • #169
    hinault
    Registered Users Posts: 5,932 ✭✭✭hinault


    K-9 wrote: »
    OK, what happened in the last devaluation crisis we had?

    IEP Punt started to devalue : Irish Interest rates rocketted :

    Chicken egg scenario.


    Leaving the Euro would be madness.


  • #170
    kaymin
    Registered Users Posts: 1,478 ✭✭✭kaymin


    K-9 wrote: »
    OK, what happened in the last devaluation crisis we had?

    In the context of property prices?


  • #171
    cson
    Registered Users Posts: 14,397 ✭✭✭✭cson


    ShowMeTheCash wrote: »

    It all comes down to money, europe and the west in general are not compedative, India and China will do your job and mine for a 1/5 of the price, taking the euro we traded in any chance to compete for our own jobs.

    They're not the type of jobs Ireland should be targetting and endeavouring to create in the first place.


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  • #172
    kaymin
    Registered Users Posts: 1,478 ✭✭✭kaymin


    More food for thought:

    http://www.econ.berkeley.edu/~eichengr/breakup_euro_area.pdf


  • #173
    cson
    Registered Users Posts: 14,397 ✭✭✭✭cson


    kaymin wrote: »
    In the context of property prices?

    To pre-empt; I'd imagine it would be in general terms. There is more to the economy than property despite what people of a few years ago would have you believe.


  • #174
    Nate--IRL--
    Registered Users Posts: 2,219 ✭✭✭Nate--IRL--


    kaymin wrote: »
    More food for thought:

    http://www.econ.berkeley.edu/~eichengr/breakup_euro_area.pdf

    That paper seems to outline the Political and economic consequences of an exit quite well.

    Nate


  • #175
    kaymin
    Registered Users Posts: 1,478 ✭✭✭kaymin


    cson wrote: »
    To pre-empt; I'd imagine it would be in general terms. There is more to the economy than property despite what people of a few years ago would have you believe.

    The devaluations of 1986 and 1993 were contributory factors to economic growth.


  • #176
    Green Gooner
    Closed Accounts Posts: 148 ✭✭Green Gooner


    How much would it cost to introduce/produce new cash?


  • #177
    Nate--IRL--
    Registered Users Posts: 2,219 ✭✭✭Nate--IRL--


    Green Gooner wrote: »
    How much would it cost to introduce/produce new cash?

    In the grand scheme of the things suggested it would be inconsequential.

    Nate


  • #178
    K-9
    Registered Users Posts: 43,311 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    kaymin wrote: »
    In the context of property prices?

    Ach No, that was a different argument and apologies for dragging us down that route. It is hard to discuss the past few years without discussing it, in particular the Central Banks inaction.

    I think if you want to exit the Euro, not alone should interest rates be outside political influence, so should the decision to devalue.

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



  • #179
    ei.sdraob
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    ShowMeTheCash wrote: »
    UK are in control of what they do with their currency, with the euro we are simply along for the ride.
    ...
    Why are we so expensive??

    1. they are not control as illustrated by references earlier

    2. Ireland being expensive has little to do with the currency

    kaymin wrote: »
    But inflation is a good thing when there's a recession! It counteracts the effects of the recession as it encourages spending now.

    What would be the consequences for the UK trade position had they not taken the course of action they took? It would inevitably have been far worse.

    It's just common sense
    ,


    theres a difference between little inflation staying on target and runaway inflation

    BOEs target is 2%,

    their inflation has shot up from 2.9% to 3.7% in one month, that means Mervyn King (BOE top guy) has to write a letter yet again to the Queen explaining why the hell this is happening and why is the economy not in control

    having the price of everything go up while unemployment is on rise and gdp + wages are falling is a disaster, now they will have to up interest rates to control inflation which will hit the economy hard

    ill put it to you this way, if inflation is such a good thing then why not give everyone 10000 euro? 100000 euro?? why is Zimbabwe not the worlds leading economy :D ??? go ahead think it thru

    once again why is UK now seen riskier than Spain or Italy or for that matter Ireland? what exactly did their devaluation accomplish?? keep in mind that they had own currency to begin with so devaluation didnt involve breaking international treaties

    /


  • #180
    K-9
    Registered Users Posts: 43,311 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    kaymin wrote: »
    The devaluations of 1986 and 1993 were contributory factors to economic growth.

    No, not necessarily.

    I live close to the border and the punt was more valuable than sterling in 95/96. We didn't devalue and we still had a proper boom until 01/02.

    PS. Our currency was over valued then, we didn't devalue.

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



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  • #181
    ei.sdraob
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    ShowMeTheCash wrote: »
    UK are in control of what they do with their currency, with the euro we are simply along for the ride. ?

    simple question:

    would you trust Zanu FF in control of such an important economic tool as money printing?

    :D


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