Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Thursday, 10 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy at first with some patchy drizzle or light rain, more widespread in central Leinster, then gradually brightening up around mid-day or afternoon, in light north to northwest winds. Highs 8 to 10 C.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud with some clear intervals, rather cold, lows 3 to 6 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, mild, highs 9 to 12 C.

SATURDAY ... Breezy and mild, occasional light rain, winds west to northwest 40 to 60 km/hr, lows near 6 C and highs near 11 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, isolated showers, mild. Lows near 4 C and highs near 11 C.

MONDAY ... Outbreaks of light rain, winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr, temperatures steady near 10 C.

TUESDAY ... Somewhat colder in strong west to northwest winds, wintry showers on higher terrain in north, otherwise rain showers for most, highs near 7 C.

OUTLOOK ... Windy and generally a bit colder all through next week with winds mainly in a west to northwest direction, sometimes quite blustery, temperatures in the 4 to 7 C range most of the time, risk of some wintry showers on higher terrain. Beyond the weekend of 19th to 20th, it may turn even colder with winds from the north and sleety precipitation with a risk of accumulating snow at times. Details continue to vary from one model to another but there is certainly a growing trend towards much colder weather in the last ten days of January. How severe and how long it might last remain the big unknowns.

My local weather featured a steady light snowfall that eventually added up to about 10 cm, with the temperature around -2 C. This looks like continuing overnight then turning to drizzle as temperatures gradually warm up here to 2-4 C. I think we will lose this nice blanket of snow rather gradually over the following five days, meanwhile local hills and mountains have a lot heavier snow cover and will keep most of that for months now. A weak storm will develop over the south central U.S. on Friday and move towards North Carolina, bringing a 5 to 15 cm snow band into the Washington D.C. region this weekend. That snow might graze New York and Boston as the low tracks to their south, but amounts appear very small.

Saturday, 12 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Breezy, mild, outbreaks of light rain in north by afternoon, winds westerly 50 to 70 km/hr. Highs 9 to 12 C.

TONIGHT ... Breezy to windy at times, mild, drizzle or light rain in a few places, lows 5 to 7 C.

SUNDAY ... Breezy to windy, mild, although slightly colder in east Ulster, winds west to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr. Lows near 5 to 7 C and highs in the range of 8 to 11 C, mildest in south.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, mild, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

TUESDAY ... Windy, showers and turning somewhat colder late in the day at least in north and west, winds west to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr, lows near 6 C and highs 8 to 10 C but temperatures 4 to 7 C by afternoon in north Connacht and west Ulster.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain at times overnight then becoming partly cloudy, with passing showers in a cold northwest wind, lows near 3 C and highs near 7 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, rather cold, morning frosts. Lows -1 to +2 C, highs 6 to 9 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, rain or drizzle, possibly mixing with sleet on higher ground in north, lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C.

OUTLOOK ... There may be a frontal boundary event shaping up for (on or about) Saturday 19th with sleet or snow possible in north and east, more likely rain and drizzle in south and west, before colder air advancing from the east replaces the remnants of the Atlantic flow which will be in a much weakened state by then, rapidly pushed far to the south by the collapsing frontal boundary low. This would imply the return of dry weather for some period of time under higher pressure, frosts at night and rather cold in the daytime. An even colder northerly flow could then develop after a day or two of this intermediate cold, so in general, it looks like a steady decline in temperatures from mid-week through this outlook period to who knows when ... it's possible that a lengthy cold spell will develop, perhaps with brief interruptions because some guidance suggests that the Atlantic will keep trying to fight back, if rather feebly, once the colder air establishes dominance.

My local weather was cloudy, almost calm, and rather mild, with a bit of mist from the slowly melting snow (which is still about 8-10 cm deep on the ground). The high was about 4 C. Snow has developed as expected in the Mississippi valley and is spreading towards West Virginia overnight, then into Virginia and Maryland on Saturday afternoon. About 10 to 20 cm is expected (or has already fallen in the St. Louis area).

Monday, 14 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Breezy and still somewhat milder than average with brief passing showers and some brighter intervals too, winds westerly 50 to 70 km/hr at times, highs 8 to 11 C.

TONIGHT ... Partly to mostly cloudy, moderate westerly winds, lows 4 to 7 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, rain developing in west by late in the day, moderate southwest winds and highs 8 to 12 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Turning much colder in the early morning hours and staying quite cold all day as winds veer to northerly 40 to 70 km/hr, passing showers of rain or hail at lower elevations, becoming mixed wintry showers on hills. Morning lows near 3 C and afternoon highs only 6 or 7 C at best.

THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals, cold, with scattered frosts in the morning. Lows -2 to +3 C, highs near 6 C.

FRIDAY ... Mostly cloudy, damp and drizzly with some risk of sleet or wet snow in parts of Ulster and north Leinster. Temperatures steady around 7 or 8 C to the west of a frontal boundary, and 3 to 5 C to the east. This frontal boundary could set up a little further west so stay tuned for the details on that. The further west it drifts, the colder temperatures might become to the east.

SATURDAY ... Continued outbreaks of sleet or wet snow in some eastern and southern counties, gradual clearing later, cold. Temperatures steady in the 3 to 5 C range and falling below freezing by evening.

SUNDAY ... Sharp frosts likely, then sunny but quite cold, lows -5 to -2 C and highs 3 to 6 C. Light east winds becoming southeast later.

MONDAY and TUESDAY may see a brief return to milder weather if some guidance is correct, but it may also become very windy at times with squally showers. The best guess for temperatures is around 7 C but other outcomes are possible.

OUTLOOK ... Almost all guidance is converging on a windy and cold end to January with occasional sleet or snow possible, and temperatures well below average at times (close to freezing daytime and around -3 C or lower at night). Some charts on various models look quite stormy and while we can have little confidence in any details this far ahead, the frequency of these stormy charts on almost all guidance makes me think that it's inevitable that something of that sort will occur within the period 23 to 31 January or into early February.

My local weather was very drab on Sunday, just a low overcast and temperatures steady near 2 C. Our snow cover stopped its slow decline and remains at about 5 to 7 cms. There is about a metre of snow at the 900 m elevation in the mountains above us though. Meanwhile, the snowstorm continued all day Sunday and Washington DC ended up with 25 cms. This low has moved out into the Atlantic and remnants of it will arrive near western Ireland by Friday morning.

Wednesday, 16 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Some sunshine and cold westerly winds at first, showers becoming more widespread and taking a wintry turn over higher parts of the north and west. Winds west to northwest 40 to 70 km/hr, highs 5 to 8 C, temperatures tending to drop in vicinity of heavier showers.

TONIGHT ... Partial clearing with widespread although not universal frost, most likely inland and in lower lying areas, lows -3 to +2 C.

THURSDAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, less windy but quite cold, highs 4 to 7 C.

FRIDAY ... Overcast, outbreaks of light rain trending to sleet or wet snow in parts of Ulster, north/east Connacht and Leinster. Highs about 4 or 5 C for most, but could reach 7 to 9 C in west Munster.

SATURDAY ... Some sleety showers lingering in the morning, more confined to south and east then clearing by afternoon, cold. Morning lows about 2 C and afternoon highs about 6 C.

OUTLOOK ... There remains some uncertainty about the trends beyond Saturday, the most likely scenario is for this modified cold air mass to linger with slight fluctuations in temperature as weak weather systems ripple along from northwest to southeast, but there is some chance of a colder trend too with east winds developing. Eventually it seems likely that a colder spell will develop as the Atlantic is only strong enough to send in very weak frontal systems without much if any warmth, so that there are two different processes that could lead to sleet or snow, easterly "sea effect" showers, or frontal mixed precipitation. I have the feeling that more reliable model output will be available next week once the shock effects of the changes at higher levels work their way through the system and the models have the usual less complicated tasks to process the data. What that more reliable scenario will be is anybody's guess at this point, almost all possibilities are on the table given the mix of players on the field.

My local weather continued overcast and got a bit colder, with the high only reaching -2 C. We are expecting a similar day today and then some light snow on Thursday. The east coast of North America is gearing up for some mixed sleety precipitation that will fall as heavy snow over higher ground inland from the major cities, but could be a mix of types near the coast. Something to mark on the calendar: if skies are clear on the night of 20th-21st (this coming Sunday night into Monday morning) a total eclipse of the moon will be visible in both Europe and most of North America. The midpoint of this lunar eclipse will be 0517 GMT Monday, or just after midnight in the eastern time zone of North America. For Irish readers, this means the opening stages of the eclipse would be after 0400h Monday and at that point the moon will be fairly high in the southwestern sky, even towards the end of the event around 0600h it will be well above the horizon setting in the west. North American viewers will catch this spectacle (where skies are clear) with the Moon high up in the southern sky (or in my western time zone, in the southeast and reasonably high up for viewing).

Friday, 18 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Some further light rain in parts of Ulster and Leinster this morning, with sleet on some higher ground. Gradual clearing to partly cloudy skies later. There will still be a few isolated showers in the drier air mass, already evident around Galway, but these will be hit or miss with slight risk of hail. Rather cold especially in north and east today, highs 5 to 8 C. South and west coast may approach 10 C later.

TONIGHT ... Clearing for some areas will bring on a slight frost, and patchy ground fog. There will continue to be one or two isolated showers and somewhat more organized bands of light rain or sleet in the north. Lows -2 to +3 C.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, occasional showers, some risk of sleet or hail in these. Cold. Highs 5 to 8 C.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy with afternoon sunny intervals, cold, isolated wintry showers. Lows -3 to +1 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

MONDAY ... Sharp frosts in morning (some clear skies for eclipse viewing but very cold), lows -5 to -2 C. Increasing cloud during the day with an outbreak of sleety rain turning to wet snow over some higher terrain by the overnight hours. Highs 4 to 7 C. Becoming rather windy with this band of wintry precipitation (southwest 40 to 70 km/hr veering to northwest 50 to 90 km/hr).

TUESDAY and possibly WEDNESDAY will be cold, windy with wintry showers likely, some small accumulations of snow mainly over higher ground. Lows will be near -1 C and highs near 5 C.

OUTLOOK ... Most guidance continues to show even colder weather developing from the east, however, the set-up is a little "delicate" on some guidance and the full effect of this cold spell may be somewhat modified in Ireland as compared to Britain, or, it may be less wintry near the west coast if the colder air is able to extend into parts of eastern Ireland. Although there's some potential for snow, it may remain generally rather dry with this cold spell with Britain being more likely to see outbreaks of snow from the North Sea for two reasons, one being stronger east winds, the other being a deeper cold air mass reaching them. However, this is all rather speculative still and could change closer to the time. The best guess for temperatures later next week would be around -5 C at night and +3 C in the daytime. That could be adjusted by several degrees in either direction once we find out exactly how much of this easterly cold spell is going to impact Ireland.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with very light snow falling from mid-day on, 2 cm has accumulated, and the high was -2 C. The eastern U.S. got a light snowfall in places ahead of a complex mixture of sleet, rain and snow expected on the weekend. The heaviest snow appears to be heading for Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York state and New England inland from the Atlantic coast. About 20-30 cms could fall in those states.

(reminder: total eclipse of the Moon visible from about 0430 to 0600h Irish time on Monday morning, weather permitting)

Sunday, 20 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... A few showers with sleet mixing in on higher ground, but a general clearing trend by afternoon, rather chilly north to northeast winds 40 to 60 km/hr, but a bit of sunshine may compensate for that. Highs 5 to 8 C for most, near 10 C around coastal Munster and Connacht.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, very cold, frost in most areas. Lows -4 to -1 C. (eclipse of the moon visible 0430 to 0600h, look to your southwest to west as the event proceeds). Some fog patches in valleys by dawn. Widespread icy roads on less travelled routes, and a windscreen scrape likely to take a few minutes of your time (or take a container of hot water out with you, and save yourself the bother).

MONDAY ... Hazy sunshine and very cold in the morning, increasing cloud from northwest to southeast mid-day, a few raindrops or sleet on hills by early evening in Ulster and north Connacht, winds calm at first then increasing to southwest 50 to 80 km/hr. Highs 5 to 8 C.

TUESDAY ... Showers turning wintry as colder air returns from the northwest on gusty winds 50 to 80 km/hr. Hail, sleet and some snow in the mix, mingled with sunny breaks. Temperatures steady in the 2 to 5 C range. Feeling very cold in the wind.

WEDNESDAY ... Still rather cold but mild enough that any showers will probably be sleet or rain, lows near -2 C inland, +2 C coastal and cities, then highs near 7 C. Moderate west to northwest winds.

OUTLOOK ... Most guidance is still roughly similar to what we discussed yesterday, I won't go through all that again, but there seems to be a consensus that one or two milder days will return before a more prolonged cold spell is even possible, and there it's a case of getting things to line up so that winds turn sufficiently northerly then perhaps easterly to tap the much colder air lurking off in those directions. I would say confidence in a significant cold spell is moderate rather than low or high. It's better (if you want a cold spell) than just faint signs, but it would be ideal if the models picked up a more robust signal and developed it along similar lines, because one wants to bring in cold air from the north, another from the east, and a third one might be more about cold just developing locally from a lack of milder air moving into the leftover transitional air mass. So it's still a wait and see scenario past mid-week.

My local weather on Saturday failed to produce any snow as the bands broke up just before reaching us, but it looks like being delivered overnight now, with gradual clearing on Sunday. We might see the eclipse through broken cloud layers (on Sunday evening in our time zone) or we might not, this valley often stays cloudier than most other parts of the region. Meanwhile, snow is spreading through Pennsylvania into New York state and parts of New England away from the Atlantic coast, as well as southern Ontario and Quebec. Some places may get as much as 40 cms. Sleet and freezing rain is more prevalent near the coast, with a heavy rain in parts of Virginia to southern New Jersey and Long Island. Airport delays are likely for travellers in the eastern and central U.S. as much colder air hits on Monday, with icing problems.

(one last reminder -- eclipse visible before sunrise Monday, check it any time after 0430h, looking to southwest in Ireland, or in eastern North America, high to south around 11 p.m. to midnight. Midpoint of totality is 0517 GMT).

Tuesday, 22 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Windy and cold with mixed wintry showers, some accumulations of snow on hills, sleet or hail showers near sea level, mixed with some sunny breaks, in gusty west to northwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr, adding chill factor to highs only 4 to 6 C. Feeling closer to -1 C. Some thunder possible with showers of various types. Heavier showers of all types are likely to be found in north and west but could happen anywhere. Watch for patches of black ice on roads both this morning and again this evening after sunset.

TONIGHT ... Breezy and cold, icy on some secondary roads, lows -2 to +2 C. Passing sleety showers with a renewed risk of snow accumulations on higher ground in north.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy and rather cold, passing showers more sleet or rain, with some hail, than snow as temperatures warm slightly, lows about -1 C and highs about 7 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated showers, highs near 8 C except 10 to 12 C near west coast. Winds backing to westerly and increasing to 40 to 70 km/hr.

FRIDAY ... Windy and milder (briefly) with highs about 11 C. This may last to late afternoon then much colder air will return on Friday night or at the latest, early morning Saturday (some difference of opinion on timing). Rain will accompany this front and turn to sleet and wet snow overnight in some higher parts of the north and west.

SATURDAY ... Rain or sleet, some snow showers on hills, windy and cold, temperatures steady near 5 C or falling slowly, reaching 2 C by late afternoon and below freezing overnight.

OUTLOOK ... The guidance continues to be fairly similar on most models and shows a continuing pattern of cold unstable air masses persisting about 70% of the time and milder Atlantic flows intruding for the other 30%. While this would not be severe wintry cold, it will tend to bring more snow to west and north than an easterly might have done, and certainly a lot less to east coast locations. Eventually there are some signs of a turn in wind direction towards the northeast by the end of the month. That might bring on even colder weather eventually.

My local weather was a welcome change to sunshine and highs near 2 C in a rather chilly northwest wind. We now have a frozen snow pack of about 5-10 cms that will require heavy rain or very mild temperatures to thaw, otherwise it looks like snow but feels like ice (and it cannot be moved very easily). Up in the local mountains there is a softer snow pack of about 40 cms. The eastern regions of North America (at least inland from the coast) saw bright cold weather and they have massive snow or ice problems in the wake of the major storm on the weekend, with no thaw and bitter cold near -20 C. Yet the next storm coming along is supposed to bring a mix of rain and snow to some of these areas and another rainfall to the coastal cities (around Thursday). Snow lovers in that part of the world at least have local mountains where they can find lots of snow, but the coastal plain is now bare after some snow fell about a week ago there.

Anyway, keep your guard up (or your hopes high if you want snow and cold) because the pattern at the moment is one where much colder trends could easily develop, the modified milder intrusions from the Atlantic could turn into battleground snow or sleet scenarios in another week or two with just a slight southward shift in the jet stream.

Wednesday, 23 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, a few wintry showers but with the trend for these to become more confined to higher ground and the northeast. Moderate west to northwest winds at times, highs 5 to 8 C.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, some isolated showers, some of them wintry in east Ulster and north Leinster. Lows -1 to +3 C there, otherwise about 4 to 6 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, some outbreaks of light rain developing, milder. Highs 8 to 11 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy, mild, generally a dry day with limited amounts of sunshine, rain by evening from north to south. Lows 4 to 7 C and highs about 11 or 12 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy and turning sharply colder around daybreak, temperatures steady near 5 C falling to near 2 C by evening. Mixed wintry showers in a strong and gusty northwest wind 50 to 80 km/hr.

SUNDAY ... Breezy and cold, wintry showers and some sunshine at times, lows near -3 C and highs near 5 C.

MONDAY ... A brief milder interval in the south with rain, but quickly turning colder again, temperatures may reach 7 C in the south but will remain in the 3 to 5 C range further north, mixed wintry showers returning as any rain left over turns to sleet in the south.

OUTLOOK ... Windy and very cold during the last few days of January and into early February, with risk of snow, although temperatures still appear just marginal enough to suggest a mixture of showery precipitation types. Highs around 4 C, overnight lows -4 to -2 C. Winds generally from the northwest 50 to 80 km/hr but may back to northeast by end of the month and into early February. So far, we are not seeing signs of the heavy snowfall experienced last winter (28 Feb to 1 March) in Ireland although some parts of Britain could begin to see moderate amounts of snow in the next two weeks. A few very high areas of the north could accumulate some significant amounts.

My local weather on Tuesday featured 5-8 cms of wet snow falling on the previously frozen cover, with temperatures steady near -1 C.

It's true, the models we use in forecasting really blend very well into the joke thread over in AH, which is why I divide my time, helps me get into the groove.

Here's the update -- I will just say that it's pretty much the same forecast but with some added uncertainty towards the end (again) as the models once again diverge into various alternate outcomes (some are similar to what we discussed yesterday so it's not entirely a reversal) ...

Friday, 25 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Continued mild, occasional spots of drizzle and brighter intervals in a moderate westerly breeze, highs 10 to 13 C.

TONIGHT ... Mild with rain developing, southwest winds increasing to 40 to 70 km/hr. Lows 7 to 9 C.

SATURDAY ... the morning will also be rather mild but increasingly windy. It will turn sharply colder during the morning hours in the west, and by mid-day in the east, with temperatures still up around 8 C before dropping rapidly to about 3 or 4 C in strong gales from the northwest. Rain will turn to sleet then mixed wintry showers in northwest winds increasing to 70-110 km/hr by evening. These very strong winds will howl all night into Sunday morning with temperatures steady near 1 or 2 C in east, 3 or 4 C west, and snow accumulating on some northern hills, mixed wintry showers lower down.

SUNDAY will continue very windy and cold with further falls of sleet or snow, hail showers and sometimes a cold rain or ice pellets. Winds of 70 to 100 km/hr will continue from northwest to north. Temperatures will be steady near 2 C in Ulster, 3 to 5 C elsewhere. Significant snowfalls are possible on higher ground in Ulster, north Connacht and peaks further south and east.

MONDAY will see a slight relaxation of both winds and temperatures but it will turn colder again later in the day after perhaps reaching 5 to 7 degrees briefly. Showers will turn to mostly rain for a time, then switch back to the mixed wintry variety. Winds rather light for the milder interlude then northwest 40 to 70 km/hr. Temperatures will fall to about 2 C.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY will continue wintry with occasional sleety showers, some risk of snow on higher terrain especially, and temperatures staying in the colder than average range of 3 to 6 C with slight frosts each night. Some guidance is bringing a mixed bag of sleet, cold rain and wet snow through parts of the south around Thursday morning, while other guidance keeps this off to the south so that it would be more of a showery (but cold) scenario.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY (1 to 3 Feb) is now something of a tossup between wintry showers and locally signficant snow, temperatures around 2 to 4 C, according to about half the guidance, or a slight warming trend with rain showers but staying rather cold, 4 to 7 C. These would not feel all that different so if we split the difference for now and say overcast, rain with some sleet or wet snow on hills, and near 5 C, that might work out fairly well.

The general theme in North America is that extreme cold, which has persisted all winter in north-central Canada, is going to start flowing out of its source region in waves, a process that started about a week ago but is intensifying tonight behind the latest storm system moving into Quebec and New England. This one will form a secondary on the east coast that may bring sleet to some of the larger cities before the cold air moves in. Then a storm develops over the Canadian prairies, turns into a blizzard for the northern plains Sunday and the Great Lakes region Monday. This one will be followed by extreme cold near -30 C with wind chill values to -45 C. The models are having some problems dealing with these extremes, which can generate powerful storms over the warm Atlantic waters (and despite this cold air, the Gulf stream is actually warmer than average east of the U.S.). Where those powerful storms then go will determine the details of weather in western Europe about three to four days week later. My own weather has been rather tranquil, as the mild Pacific air is holding this colder air mass off to our east for now. We might get a slight fall in temperature when the outer edge of the arctic air slides over two mountain ranges to our east and gets into our valley by Monday or so. But I don't expect it to go much lower than -7 C here. The high on Thursday was 3 C.

Bottom line -- Ireland may escape the worst of the potential for wintry weather (or the best depending on your point of view) but that is not guaranteed in this volatile situation. Some of the biggest snowfalls in Irish weather history have been in February, March or even April, so the book is far from closed.

Sunday, 27 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Very windy and cold with passing sleety showers, some hail, and snow on hills. Some sunny intervals in the mix also. Winds north backing to northwest 70 to 110 km/hr this morning then easing during the afternoon to northwest 50 to 70 km/hr. Highs about 4 C in the north inland, to 8 C along the south coast, but generally feeling much colder due to the wind.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud and sleety showers turning to rain over northwest coastal areas by morning. Lows near -1 C inland south and east, to +2 C west and north.

MONDAY ... Rather breezy at times, temperatures may drift up slightly as a weak disturbance passes from northwest to southeast, with an interval of light rain turning to sleet on higher ground, highs near 7 C. Temperatures will then drop slowly in a blustery northwest wind following this disturbance.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals. Winds could be fairly moderate unless a storm passing just to the south of Ireland goes a bit off track and spreads its strong winds inland. Rather cold, with scattered wintry showers, some snow on hills. Lows near -2 C and highs near 5 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and raw with mixed sleety falls of rain, wet snow or hail, in blustery east to northeast winds, temperatures steady near 4 or 5 C but colder on higher ground especially after any snow accumulates.

THURSDAY ... Windy, cold, some further sleet or snow, then partial clearing for parts of the north and west, more frequent wintry showers in east and south. Temperatures remaining steady around 4 or 5 C.

FRIDAY ... Brighter intervals and cold with a strong northeast wind at times, risk of snow near east coast in streamers. Lows near -3 C and highs near 3 C.

SATURDAY ... Sunny intervals, cold. Lows near -4 C and highs near 4 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... This cold, unsettled pattern will continue for the first half of February, it appears, with similar trends, a few days of cloudy, windy and showery weather with some risk of snow or sleet, and a few days of brighter cold weather, and perhaps one or two more brief intrusions of milder air masses. Temperatures will be generally about 1 to 2 degrees below average but not so cold that we can guarantee significant snowfalls, away from higher slopes. You would have to think that if this pattern locks in for weeks, sooner or later everything will align and snow will happen at lower elevations.

My local weather was overcast and mild as we wait for a strong cold front to sweep through Sunday morning. The Great Lakes region will be bracing late Sunday for the expected arrival of a blizzard from the Canadian prairies, just getting organized now around central Alberta. This will bring 10-30 cm snowfalls to most of the region it traverses today and Monday. When it reaches Ontario, another blast of extreme cold will follow in behind it, replacing the current very cold air mass. Temperatures in parts of northern Ontario have fallen below -40 C the past few nights. Chicago and most of the Midwest are expecting near all-time record cold mid-week. The effects of the storm on the east coast will be minimal but the severe cold will reach the coastal cities (Washington, New York, Boston etc) on Tuesday with readings near -15 C there.

Tuesday, 29 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Sleet or rain this morning will gradually clear southeast and some sunny intervals will follow, with moderate northwest winds of about 40 to 70 km/hr. Further outbreaks of wintry showers will develop by afternoon. Some snow on hills could accumulate 2 to 4 cms. Highs only about 4 to 7 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, very cold. Isolated snow showers. Lows -5 to -1 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Some morning sunshine, frost lingering in shaded areas, sleet or snow showers becoming more frequent, with some accumulations on hills (in Connacht and Ulster mainly). Winds backing to southeast by afternoon. Highs 3 to 6 C.

THURSDAY ... A wintry mix of snow, sleet and cold rain will spread in across the west and south, largely avoiding north Leinster and east Ulster where it will remain partly cloudy with isolated wintry showers. The sleet and snow will be heavier on higher terrain but mixtures could occur almost anywhere, with temperatures steady in the 1 to 4 C range. Raw and cold east winds will develop, and it will become very windy in coastal west Munster where sustained winds of 80 km/hr and gusts to 120 km/hr are possible. Elsewhere, winds will reach 60 to 100 km/hr. Driving conditions may be poor at times especially over higher terrain. This situation is more certain as to wind and precipitation than to the type of precipitation, so stay tuned on that aspect.

FRIDAY ... Most of the steady sleet or snow will have moved away by morning and the rest of the day will be cold and windy with bands of wintry showers developing over nearby seas and the Atlantic, and moving inland on north to northeast winds of 50 to 80 km/hr. Some locally heavy snowfalls could develop although higher elevations around south Dublin or Wicklow, and hills in Mayo and Donegal seem to be the most likely targets for snow. The majority of the population will probably see a mixture of sleety showers but the snow line will be as low as 250 metres above sea level at times. Morning lows of -4 to -1 C and highs near 3 C.

SATURDAY ... Not as windy, some sunshine, but very cold, with severe frosts -6 to -2 C, then daytime highs near 4 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will see a moderation to milder weather in southwest winds, some rain likely, and highs 7 to 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Similar cycles of weather ranging from cold and windy to mild with rain are likely as the two competing influences remain equally balanced. Cold might win a longer engagement except that severe cold in North America is occasionally generating intense storms off the east coast there, and these are at least trying to reach Europe, the one on Thursday will be running into cold air already well entrenched and this is creating the marginal snowfall situation.

My local weather was pleasantly sunny on Monday with a high near 1 C, and it's clear and cold outside now (at 11:30 pm local time), with more sunshine expected on Tuesday. The super cold air mass I described yesterday is charging south behind the snowstorm which is now dying out over Lake Huron and spawning a new disturbance by tonight over the Atlantic coastal states. This will allow the frigid air to sweep into most areas by Tuesday morning and set off another snowfall event for interior New England. Anyone with travel plans to the U.S. should note, the severe cold will not be as big an issue on the east coast (-15 C) as in the Midwest (-30 C with wind chills to -50 C). Some extremely cold temperatures were already being noted even before this new arctic air mass pushes in, from the previous outbreak. A low of -47 C was reported in northern Ontario at Geraldton (ON) Monday morning.

With the uncertainty about Thursday's outcome, I think that we should have a good idea which way the trends will go (as to mostly rain and some sleet or snow, or a lot of snow and some rain) by the next forecast.

Thursday, 31 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... As rain develops over most of the south and west, some snow or sleet will spread inland during the morning, mostly on hills in Connacht at first, then later on some hills further south and east. Strong east to southeast winds will eventually back to northeast 50 to 80 km/hr, but there may be intervals of south to southwest winds this morning in Kerry and west Cork, which will later become southeast. Snowfall amounts will probably be greater at higher elevations for most but cannot rule out a few places at lower elevations getting significant falls especially towards end of the day as it turns slightly colder again. Temperatures will rise very slowly in most places to around 2 to 4 C in the mixed sleety precipitation. Highs of 5 to 8 C will occur around late morning in parts of the south but temperatures there will fall slowly later. Some hilly areas particularly in Munster and Connacht will likely see 10 to 20 cm falls. Eventually this will develop over Leinster hills also. Some parts of Ulster will not see much if any precipitation and may stay partly cloudy during the day.

TONIGHT ... Windy, raw and possibly winter storm conditions in some areas as the rain-snow balance turns more to snowfall in strong northeast winds 50 to 80 km/hr. Temperatures steady near 1 C or lower, but as cold as -2 C in parts of Ulster. Snow may begin to accumulate at lower elevations than during the daytime previously. Best chances for accumulating snow at lower elevations would be in parts of the inland south and east. The on-shore winds will probably bring in just enough warmth from the Irish Sea to maintain sleet or rain in the Dublin area except at higher elevations. This might trend to mostly snow around Kildare and Laois however. There is a risk of 5 to 15 cm snow accumulations in parts of the south and east but this is not a sure thing.

FRIDAY ... Snow or sleet becoming more confined to isolated streamers feeding in from Irish Sea (into Leinster) and North Atlantic (into Mayo and west Galway). Some sunshine in other parts of the country, very cold, strong northeast backing to north winds 50 to 80 km/hr. Highs about 4 C. Some local accumulations of snow possible again, most likely in higher parts of Connacht, Ulster and south Leinster.

SATURDAY ... Mostly sunny, cold. Sharp to severe frosts to start the day, lows near -6 C inland to -3 C coastal and urban areas. Daytime highs about 5 C. Winds not as strong, northwest 30 to 50 km/hr at times. Isolated snow flurries.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, rain developing late in the day, milder. Highs 8 to 10 C. Strong southwest winds likely by evening, 50 to 80 km/hr and higher gusts in Donegal and Mayo.

MONDAY ... Rain clearing east, some sunshine, highs 7 to 9 C.

TUESDAY ... Rain, possibly sleet on some hills, highs 6 to 8 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... A rather average sort of pattern for the following week but with some chance of a slightly colder turn towards the weekend of 9th-10th as high pressure pushes back from Europe for a time. After that it looks rather variable again mid-month, probably with increasing threats of colder weather by second half of the month.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast but dry, with a high near -1 C. We are expecting some snow at times for the next few days. The eastern and central regions of North America continue to cope with severe cold and wind chills, but most of the snow has let up except for isolated heavy lake effect streamers. Lake Superior has begun to freeze over, rather rapidly, due to the -40 C air temperatures on all sides. Some ice has appeared in all the other Great Lakes except Ontario (which has only frozen over completely once in recent times, that being in February 1934). Lake Erie, although further south, regularly freezes because it is shallower than all the other lakes. Lake Huron sometimes freezes and Georgian Bay, its eastern domain, almost always does. Lake Michigan seldom freezes south of about Green Bay and in recent times it seems to be 50-50 whether Superior freezes completely or not. It is the deepest of the Great Lakes so it can withstand the lower air temperatures, for a while at least. Despite being at a higher latitude and elevation here than Lake Superior, my local lake has never frozen over but sometimes has the odd patch of floating ice (probably discharged into the lake from mountain streams). It is quite a deep lake also. Smaller lakes up in the local mountains froze over in December and this is a relatively mild winter for our location.

Saturday, 2 February, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Sunny and cold with lingering frost in eastern and central counties, scattered wintry showers developing in west, some localized snowfalls possible. Highs 3 to 6 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear and frosty for most, increasing cloud west, sleet or snow developing inland with rain near coast in west by morning. Lows about -4 C east to +2 C west.

SUNDAY ... Intervals of sleet or snow but gradually changing to rain except on highest terrain, then some clearing, but a return of rain by evening as it gets quite windy from southwest. Highs 7 to 9 C.

SUNDAY NIGHT ... Windy with some severe gusts possible near coasts of Mayo and Donegal. Winds generally southwest 50 to 80 km/hr but as strong as 110 km/hr in exposed coastal areas. Rain at times. Lows near 4 C.

MONDAY ... Clearing, breezy, highs 7 to 9 C.

TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud, milder, rain at times, highs near 11 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Overcast, wintry showers, turning colder, highs near 5 C.

OUTLOOK ... The colder mid-week interval will slowly fade out later in the week then milder again for a few days, peaking around 13 C by the end of the weekend (9th-10th) into Monday 11th. A more variable pattern will follow with some rather cold days returning.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with sleet turning to rain with temperatures steady near 2 C. This will change back to snow in advance of a strong cold front expected here by mid-day, then it looks like several weeks of quite cold weather compared to the mild January just finished. Continued moderation in the eastern half of North America with mild weather on the way in for the week. Eventually becoming rather stormy in the Great Lakes region.

Monday, 4 February, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Sunny with increasing afternoon cloud, rain developing in western counties by evening. Highs 8 to 10 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain spreading to east, 10 to 15 mm expected, lows near 6 C although it may drop lower briefly in parts of north Leinster and east Ulster before cloud thickens.

TUESDAY ... Windy with another 10-15 mm rainfall event, south to southwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr, morning lows near 6 C and afternoon highs near 11 C. Colder air will begin to arrive by late afternoon in the west.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy and rather cold with passing showers of rain or hail, some snow on summits. Lows near -2 C and highs near 7 C at sea level, 4 or 5 C higher inland areas. Longer spells of rain by evening and overnight, sleet possible on higher terrain.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy, cool with passing showers, some wintry on higher ground. Lows near -1 C and highs near 7 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy and mild with outbreaks of rain heavy at times, highs near 10 C. Winds southwest 60 to 100 km/hr at current estimates, but possibly stronger, so an event to be watched.

OUTLOOK ... Slightly cooler again over weekend of 9th-10th with showers and gusty winds, then a more settled interval during the following week, reasonably mild but some frosts possible in the inland southeast, as somewhat colder air reaches Britain from central Europe. Eventually it could turn very mild as high pressure sinks further south.

My local weather was what you might call Baltic (nobody here would recognize that phrase) with very strong north winds in our valley and a mist of light snow with falling temperatures. It was -2 C at sunrise, -7 C at sunset and about -10 C now, with wind chill reducing those numbers by at least 10, with gusts to 80 km/hr. Quite a sharp change from all the bland nearly featureless weather we had in January.

Note: new moon occurs today at 2105h (9:05 p.m.) or 4:05 p.m. for readers in the eastern time zone of North America.

And also thanks to those forum members who have provided assistance with this thread both directly by making forecasts when I have time away, and indirectly by their work on other threads of forecast interest, that I can follow and direct readers to follow. This may seem like a lone wolf operation but in many ways it has been a team effort and I appreciate it ...

Tuesday, 5 February, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Breezy and briefly milder with showery outbreaks of rain, sometimes heavy but not expected to amount to much more than 10 mm, with winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr, highs 11 to 13 C. Turning colder in stages this evening as winds veer to westerly, further showers likely.

TONIGHT ... Breezy and turning rather cold after midnight, lows 1 to 3 C. A few more showers likely.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy and cold with passing showers, some of them mixed wintry showers on higher ground. Longer intervals of rain likely by evening. Highs near 7 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, breezy, occasional light rain, lows near 1 C and highs near 7 C.

FRIDAY ... Very windy with rain, heavy at times. Winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr becoming stronger by afternoon, 80 to 110 km/hr at least, watching this for possibly even stronger gusts. About 15 to 25 mm rain likely also. Highs near 10 C.

SATURDAY ... Winds becoming less forceful by morning, but continuing rather breezy all day, showers, highs near 9 C.

SUNDAY ... Breezy and turning colder again, further showers and some mixed wintry falls on higher ground in north, highs near 6 C.

OUTLOOK ... Next week appears likely to stay relatively mild despite some cold air lurking off to the east and possibly affecting parts of southern Britain at times. The flow will remain southerly (according to most guidance) and while the week could start with some light frosts the days will easily reach 9 or 10 C and perhaps a bit higher.

My local weather on Monday was sunny and bitterly cold, with the strong north wind gradually easing to more moderate levels, but still adding several degrees of chill to daytime highs of only about -8 C (about as cold as it gets here usually). Clear and -15 C outside now. We are locked into this cold spell for several weeks by the looks of the guidance, with another snow and wind event this coming weekend. It has become very mild in the eastern U.S. and southern Ontario, readings above 10 C to near 17 C.