Price Changes FPL 14/15 Mod warning 1st post

Lemlin · 21-08-2014 1:02pm

wonski wrote: »

I have a good feeling this won't happen. He was at 80 previously iirc.

Most people would do transfer tomorrow though, so his transfers out may increase violently. At least it is not going to be 0.2 as some predicted earlier.

I predicted 0.2 earlier in the week because it looked like he would but that was based on last year's system I think now. He'll definitely fall 0.1 tomorrow IMO because the bulk of transfers will occur then.

He doesn't play until Sunday so chances are he could have a fair few transfers on Saturday too.

Necronomicon wrote: »

Often one extreme reaction provokes another. People see Mata being written off after one game and go to the opposite extreme in his defense. The truth, as always, is probably somewhere in the middle; I think he'll be a solid enough points scorer throughout the season.

I agree. My overall plan is to get him back in as my United cover once I have Aguero up front. My move to transfer him out is more about the team at the minute than the player.

wonski · 21-08-2014 1:03pm

Lemlin wrote: »

That's a good point. Seems there's high expectations for Mata this weekend on the forum but he hasn't a single vote in the captaincy thread.

No votes for Sterling either:D

To be honest I am done with Mata vs Sterling debate. Too much of this on every single thread from Rate my thread all the way to the Chat thread.

We need a new victim - Ballotelli on the radar now:D

AdMMM · 21-08-2014 2:16pm

IK09 wrote: »

You should make him your captain so.

I'm maybe 70% confident that Mata will perform well, but I'm more than 90% confident of a great Costa performance.

IK09 · 21-08-2014 2:26pm

wonski wrote: »

I have a good feeling this won't happen. He was at 80 previously iirc.

Most people would do transfer tomorrow though, so his transfers out may increase violently. At least it is not going to be 0.2 as some predicted earlier.

Highly unlikely that he will drop 0.2m

Edging closer to 0.1m drop now though @ between 75-77%

IK09 · 21-08-2014 3:37pm

AdMMM wrote: »

I'm maybe 70% confident that Mata will perform well, but I'm more than 90% confident of a great Costa performance.

I dunno how he will perform, but with a player that seems to be having the offloading that Mata's having, 1 more only average performance could see a mass exodus from him. His price will suffer and your backs against the wall in GW3.

Thanos · 21-08-2014 3:39pm

IK09 wrote: »

I dunno how he will perform, but with a player that seems to be having the offloading that Mata's having, 1 more only average performance could see a mass exodus from him. His price will suffer and your backs against the wall in GW3.

I think this is the big unknown, what will he do this week..........

Like you say, if he has another off week I can see another big sell off, on the other hand, if he manages a good score it will stem the flow and even reverse it a little. At which point everyone will be waiting to see what he does the following week.

roryc · 22-08-2014 9:48am

Mata transfers in are still pretty slow - not guaranteed he drops before tomorrow! Currently at 85%, my gut says he'll hang on. Unfortunately he may not hang on until Sunday.

Lemlin · 22-08-2014 9:58am

Per Mertesacker approaching a drop while Kos is going the other way. Mertesacker could be very good value if he continues dropping. He is back training but may not start again this weekend.

roryc wrote: »

Mata transfers in are still pretty slow - not guaranteed he drops before tomorrow! Currently at 85%, my gut says he'll hang on. Unfortunately he may not hang on until Sunday.

He's currently the third most transferred out player today, behind Barkley and Giroud. I'd expect transfers will pick up alot towards this afternoon and evening as the team news comes in.

My transfer to Sterling was based on the expectation he would drop at least 0.1 so I'll be left with a bit of egg on my face if he doesn't.

IK09 · 22-08-2014 2:46pm

Which is more reliable? fiso.co.uk or totalfpl.com?
Fiso.co.uk has Fabregas at 80.8% of rise
totalfpl.com have Fabregas at 43.1% of rise.

Have noticed that the projections are usually quite similar i.e. within 5% of each other.
For some reason there are acres between these projections.

Lucas Hood · 22-08-2014 2:48pm

FPL statistics have Fabregas at 90%

.

IK09 · 22-08-2014 2:52pm

Lucas Hood wrote: »

FPL statistics have Fabregas at 90% .

ChelseaFábregas, Francesc878,983

MID
9.115,244
43.9%

12.6%

Lucas Hood · 22-08-2014 2:56pm

OneColdHand · 22-08-2014 2:57pm

IK09 wrote: »

Which is more reliable? fiso.co.uk or totalfpl.com?
Fiso.co.uk has Fabregas at 80.8% of rise
totalfpl.com have Fabregas at 43.1% of rise.

Have noticed that the projections are usually quite similar i.e. within 5% of each other.
For some reason there are acres between these projections.

This must be due to the uncertainty about what it required for a second price rise in a week. The have a similar discrepancy for Sterling: 13% on totalfpl and 26% fiso. I'd say totalfpl has been adjusted to assume that you need double the amount of transfers for the second price rise.

AdMMM · 22-08-2014 4:50pm

Would you say my little horsey Clyne will make it?

wonski · 22-08-2014 6:25pm

For those who never spot this update please click on the News tab on fplstatistics.com or go here.

A lot of rises and drops predicted for tonight (not before 2am iirc).

alchemist33 · 22-08-2014 8:31pm

OneColdHand wrote: »

This must be due to the uncertainty about what it required for a second price rise in a week. The have a similar discrepancy for Sterling: 13% on totalfpl and 26% fiso. I'd say totalfpl has been adjusted to assume that you need double the amount of transfers for the second price rise.

This is totally correct. Dier's % halved today on totalfpl; they'd adjusted for the new world with second-per-week rises.

FHFC · 22-08-2014 10:27pm

FISO confirm on their forum that they haven't changed their formulae as they don't have enough data. FPL Statistics figures are broadly similar so they must be the same. TotalFPL won't load for me at prsent but they seem to have adjusted.

So if the new double/triple rules are correct then....
Siggy and Fab won't rise.
Costa, Schurrle and probably Kos will.

FHFC · 23-08-2014 12:03am

Lambert, Brady, Cleverly, Luis, Torres, Crouch, Sahko, Sidwell, Brady, Puncheon, Young all set for drops among others.

Cameron looks across the line too. Bearing in mind of course there is more margin for error at this early stage.

He who shall not be named just over at 100.6% on TotalFPL. 98 and 99 on the other two. Let us who held him say a few prayers. He just might make it. But I reckon he'll drop.

Gunslinger99 · 23-08-2014 12:06am

Is Ward Prowse due to rise ? Hes my target for this week and i cant access fiso thanks

F1ngers · 23-08-2014 12:11am

Gunslinger99 wrote: »

Is Ward Prowse due to rise ? Hes my target for this week and i cant access fiso thanks

Not a chance.

wonski · 23-08-2014 1:21am

Mata is @99.3 at the moment:D

0.1 is all we can lose on him.

qwabercd · 23-08-2014 3:05am

Mata loses the 0.1 anyway. Was always going to drop either today or tomorrow, and I don't think many of us would have transferred him out before the Sunderland game.

kronsington · 23-08-2014 4:11am

Felipe Luis down to 5.9... Surprising

And a feck load of other players in all positions it seems

Lemlin · 23-08-2014 10:01am

kronsington wrote: »

Felipe Luis down to 5.9... Surprising

And a feck load of other players in all positions it seems

Puncheon, Jonny Evans and Shaw all fell last night. They could be decent options in future.

Would be great if Evans didn't feature this weekend and went to 5.3.