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Time to burn Greece?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 158 ✭✭rocksteady36


    Scofflaw wrote: »
    OK, leaving out all the personal stuff - for which, see above - you're correct that I said 'increase spending', not you, so I retract that, obviously. But still you don't have any evidence that Germany and France are "forcing" Greece to keep spending money. What you have - or, rather, what Cohn-Bendit has - is that German and French arms companies, who have been the main suppliers of arms to Greece, are continuing to be the main suppliers. The Greeks, meanwhile, are continuing to spend money on arms, as they historically always have done, but are reducing their spending.

    How does any of that add up to Germany and France "forcing" Greece to keep spending on arms?

    [MOD]Again, please pay attention to the mod notice about the personal stuff - and please do read the Charter before arguing with a mod notice on thread. If you feel I'm trying to moderate your argument rather than the stuff I've pointed out, you can take that up elsewhere.[/MOD]

    cordially,
    Scofflaw

    I am in stitches laffn here, this is classic, you are using your status as a mod to silence me...But you still couldn't resist to try and win the argument..classic stuff. At least I am getting a good laff here, cheers..

    There is nothing personal posted........Please don't edit any more of either of our posts after there up..Others might want a giggle too lol


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    I am in stitches laffn here, this is classic, you are using your status as a mod to silence me...But you still couldn't resist to try and win the argument..classic stuff. At least I am getting a good laff here, cheers..

    There is nothing personal posted........

    Sigh. Go and read the flipping Charter, will you? This sort of thing is the reason we have one.

    moderately,
    Scofflaw


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,462 ✭✭✭Peanut


    The threat of Turkish action against Greece I think is largely historical at this stage, the Turkish state in recent years is more interested in heading off internal political threats and establishing trade agreements with the middle east.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    Peanut wrote: »
    The threat of Turkish action against Greece I think is largely historical at this stage, the Turkish state in recent years is more interested in heading off internal political threats and establishing trade agreements with the middle east.

    Neither Greece nor Turkey regard their antagonism as "historical", however much the rest of us may. They most recently nearly went to war in 1995/1996, and only in 2004 Turkey re-confirmed it would regard any Greek expansion of its territorial waters as a casus belli. The two countries are engaged in a 'rapprochement' process, but continue to accuse each other of (and carry out) airspace violations on a regular basis, and neither have demilitarised their common borders.

    The Greeks spend a lot on arms because they're in an ongoing state of tension with Turkey, and don't wish to find themselves outgunned in an arms race.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,462 ✭✭✭Peanut


    Scofflaw wrote: »
    The Greeks spend a lot on arms because they're in an ongoing state of tension with Turkey, and don't wish to find themselves outgunned in an arms race.

    Can't argue with that, however I think speculation about corrupt Greek defense contracts etc. is reasonable given their previous form & culture. (Anecdotal, but the only train station where I managed to be ripped off by the staff was in central Athens.)

    Whatever about the military planners in Turkey, speaking from the point of view of the general Turkish population, worrying about tensions with Greece barely enters the public conciousness compared to the threat from the PKK for example.

    Although for the purposes of debate, I can understand that pure speculation about potential corruption is probably not going to lead to any especially useful economic insights; it is however something real and present, even if not easily quantifiable.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    Peanut wrote: »
    Can't argue with that, however I think speculation about corrupt Greek defense contracts etc. is reasonable given their previous form & culture. (Anecdotal, but the only train station where I managed to be ripped off by the staff was in central Athens.)

    Whatever about the military planners in Turkey, speaking from the point of view of the general Turkish population, worrying about tensions with Greece barely enters the public conciousness compared to the threat from the PKK for example.

    I don't disagree with either of those points - certainly my own experience of Turkey would indicate the PKK and Kurds more generally as a more contentious issue internally - but in Turkey it's not really necessary for there to be any great public concern about Greece, given the role the military continue to play in domestic politics. And then there's Cyprus.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


  • Registered Users Posts: 43 Damian_ir


    After my posts of the last days,

    i would like to inform you, that there is an online camera you can use to watch what happens in front of the Greek Parliament right now, in the Syntagma Square(Constitution Square).

    http://www.livestream.com/stopcarteltvgr

    Thousand of people tryed earlier today to stop the members(actually imposters and crooks) of the parliament from entering inside the building, in order to obstruct them from voting the surrender of the Greek public property to the IMF's interests and the Bankers.


    Thief and Crook. He is also a vote-imposter during the period prior to the last elections.

    PapKymaL.jpg

    Today, his political army has put people(provocateurs) to attack against the policemen that defends the parliament, in order to acuse afterwards the greek citizens that protests, for being bad citizens. 500.000 people during the last protest didn't attack to the policemen. Now his media (like Mega Channel and Sky tv and many newspapers) will acuse the people that protests more than 20 days in the Syntagma Square that all these people are extremists and bad citizens. Now we know that he is a traitor too.


    Excuse me in advance for my poor English.

    My regards to the patrons and the bands in the pubs of Temple Bar. My regards to the mayor of Dublin for having those great public Bycycles to rent so that turists can move completelly free arround the city. I will never forget my byke-ride in the Phoenix Park nor the huge and marvelous deers.

    PS: Phoenix in greek mythology is a bird that can't die and if it dies or burned it rises again from it's ashes.


  • Registered Users Posts: 158 ✭✭rocksteady36


    Damian, I take it your Greek..

    Do you think the Greek politicians are more corrupt than the Irish or are Irish better at being corrupt lol

    I am on your side on this argument, we need to stick together..

    I opened up anther thread about auditing the Irish Debt, and the Greeks are trying to audit the Greek debt, like equador did..If the Greeks or Irish can prove the debt to be odious (concept of odious debt)..Then they can default on some of the debt..I have a very strong suspicion the Greek politicians have entered into some odious debt agreements..

    As mentioned in that thread, there are serious consequences for default, but if Morgan Kelly is right we are going to default eventually, better to do it taking the high moral ground..

    Greece are set to privatise there public sector for 50 billion too instead of raising taxes, or thats what they are saying, sure they will raise taxes too..

    But on the positive side it looks like France and Germany are now talking about burden sharing with bond holders, not sure how much sharing though lol

    I have read that there were clashes between the peaceful protesters and the violent ones.. So may be your right there is some dirty tricks, or may be its the anarchists travelling over, the ones that protest the IMF around the world...

    http://www.france24.com/en/20110615-greek-protests-austerity-measures-debt-crisis-political-parties#

    “I have witnessed a paradigm shift in Greek politics. What we are seeing is not just an economic crisis. This is a complete collapse of the political institutions. All the political parties, on both the left and right, have lost their ability to influence people. Opinion polls tell us up to 50 percent of people do not want to vote in the next election. People are saying “we are sick of it,” sick of a very corrupt and self-serving political system.


    "People are extremely angry. These are not just leftists protesting. They are pensioners, housewives who have never been interested in politics, teenagers. They call themselves the “indignants”, after the Spanish. I have seen the price of consumer products increase by 20 to 30%. People are struggling to pay bills and are on edge.


    If Fine Gael don't sort us out, that will be Ireland, we won't trust any party..

    Also we will probably vote for a socialist party ...We need a Ron Paul Libertarian lol


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,053 ✭✭✭Cannibal Ox


    There was a leak earlier saying Papandreou had sought to form a coalition gov. with the opposition, but....
    Bloomberg wrote:
    Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said he will make changes to his Cabinet tomorrow and will then immediately seek a vote of confidence in Parliament.

    Link

    ...seems like the opposition didn't want to play ball.

    I assume he wouldn't have gone to the opposition without loosing the support of his party, but if the opposition weren't playing ball, and members of his own party aren't either, he's in trouble, they're in trouble and...generally, thar be trouble.

    The protestors are still outside, despite the best efforts of the Greek police. Here's a fairly steady alternative live stream for the protests. You can hear the speakers at the General Assembly over the loudspeaker, been one or two in English as well as Greek.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,342 ✭✭✭tara73


    I can say I have great sympathy for the protesting greek people. not for the heavy violence, as succesfull protesting can be done in a peaceful but nevertheless persisting and pressurising way.

    anybody who never lived or had any insight in the structures of greece should be careful to judge them from outside.
    A very good friend of mine lived in greece for the last 2 years, just moved away a few month ago.

    some examples from the experience she shared with me:

    In greece it is very difficult, even for high educated people, to find a decent paid job.her university professor couldn't live from his job so he had a second low paid job!

    even in the public service one couldn't be sure to see the money in his account every month. they sometimes had to wait for month without being paid! imagine that in Ireland, germany, france...would anybody accept that??? I don't think so.
    in greece it is all about corruption (on a far, far higher level than in ireland if that's allowed to say...:)). the university professor with which she worked refused to take part in it, that's why he was getting nowwhere.

    as opposed to ireland in greece wasn't a bubble so the ordinary people didn't had the chance to make money or participated in/gained from the 'big easy money' as almost every person in ireland did.

    so I can clearly understand the outrage of the greeks. they are friendly, welcoming and relaxed people, but at some stage it's enough. they never had chances to earn big money but now they should pay as well the bills for the lies of the corrupt government and their beneficiaries.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,435 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    There seems to be great focus from the ECB to avoid any default that will be sufficient to trigger credit default swap payouts. I dont imagine they will be able to find a magic formula ( Politicians/ECB have attempted to tell the market various things before, the market usually ignores them).

    Grumpy over on Irisheconomy.ie made an interesting point though - what would happen if they succeeded in finding a way to default on the Greek debt in a way that legally made it difficult or impossible to activate CDS protection? Direct contagion might be halted, but the implication would be that the value of CDS to protect investors from periphery default would be erroded, and perhaps eliminated - rendering the CDS worthless.

    If investors couldnt buy protection from the risk of periphery default, might they not say..."**** it. Plenty of fish in the sea" and just not buy periphery debt in future? What would that then do for Irish plans to return to the bond market in late 2012?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,053 ✭✭✭Cannibal Ox


    The IMF have, apparently, agreed to release the next round of cash and decided to delay talks on a second bailout till the end of the summer. How nice of them. All looks a bit like the can has been placed and we are only waiting for a new Greek government to kick it down the road. If only the protestors would get out of the way. Meanwhile, Bloomberg is talking about Lehman's, Ollie Rehn is strenously denying a comparison and two members of PASOK have resigned. All we really need now is for an EU politician to stand up and say something along the lines of "We have a plan for the EU without Greece."

    Lots more going on, too hard for me to keep track of it all and know what it all means, particularly as I lack a degree in economics.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,435 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    Its good to see the French banks credit ratings are being revised down - it might quite possibly dawn on Sarkozy that shoving the entire cost of a eurozone problem onto one or two periphery nations isnt working. Either for the periphery or for France.

    It might also concentrate Trichet and friends on the point that the choice isnt if Greece defaults or not - its a choice between an organised, planned default and a messy, disorganised default.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,675 ✭✭✭beeftotheheels


    The BBC

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13791879

    highlighted the exposure of Dexia to Greece

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/05/11/dexia-idUSLDE64902420100511

    and pointed out that it wouldn't take much to turn the bond markets on Belgium at the moment (given the size of their national debt pile and the fact that they don't have a Government).

    What would the acronym be then PIBIGS?

    This is worrying me more and more. The financial press are hiding Dexia's share price falls in with the French banks, so under a headline along the lines of "French Banks hugely exposed to Greece" they mention the possibility of the ratings downgrade, and detail the share price drop of Soc Gen, BNPP, CA and drop in Dexia which has suffered sharper falls.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-16/european-banks-drop-on-greek-debt-concerns-led-by-bnp-dexia.html

    If Dexia is the problem child, and Belgium is the risk, then that explains the French backing Trichet. But why is this not being widely reported? Surely even the German's don't really want to put Belgium in play, Belgium is in their own back yard.

    At this stage I really don't see any possible solution on Greece, I think that the Greek people/ politicians will take the decision for Europe. The only remaining questions are

    1. When? and
    2. How bad will the fallout be?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 10,012 ✭✭✭✭thebman


    The BBC

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13791879

    highlighted the exposure of Dexia to Greece

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/05/11/dexia-idUSLDE64902420100511

    and pointed out that it wouldn't take much to turn the bond markets on Belgium at the moment (given the size of their national debt pile and the fact that they don't have a Government).

    What would the acronym be then PIBIGS?

    Most like BI-PIGS or BIG-SIP depending on whether they kick them out of the Euro or keep sending us more laons to sip on to keep us ticking over :P

    Belgium is definitely pretty darn screwed though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,053 ✭✭✭Cannibal Ox


    Bloomberg wrote:
    Irish Finance Minister Michael Noonan said he “fears” the country could be engulfed by the Greek debt crisis, as he sought to calm investors’ concerns that the government will seek to impose losses on senior bank bondholders.

    Link

    He suggests it may impact and then swats it away by saying we're different, structurally and politically. Which may well be true, but probably not that important in the short term if Greece collapses.

    I also really don't get what he's trying to do at the moment. The whole burden sharing for senior bondholders announcement hasn't really come at the right moment for the eurozone and I'd imagine ECB officials would be displeased at best.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,435 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    @Cannibal Ox
    I also really don't get what he's trying to do at the moment. The whole burden sharing for senior bondholders announcement hasn't really come at the right moment for the eurozone and I'd imagine ECB officials would be displeased at best.

    I think the DoF are making a hamfisted effort at playing coy.

    As for it being a bad time - Irelands locked out of the bond markets: we can say and do what we like really because we dont have to worry about worrying bondholders. That horse has well and truly bolted.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,632 ✭✭✭ART6


    Here is an interesting analysis of Greece and the EU situation in general:

    http://moneymorning.com/2011/06/17/next-global-credit-crisis-why-us-banks-greek-debt-will-toxic-trigger/


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,053 ✭✭✭Cannibal Ox


    Sand wrote:
    As for it being a bad time - Irelands locked out of the bond markets: we can say and do what we like really because we dont have to worry about worrying bondholders. That horse has well and truly bolted.
    As far as I understand it, the Germans were trying to force private investors to take a hit as part of the second bailout for Greece. Since they've capitulated to the French and the ECB (because, private investors were the ECB?), surely that means any chance we had of forcing senior bondholders to take a hit is now zilch?
    Reuters wrote:
    Greece will seek approval from euro zone finance ministers on Sunday to agree to some changes in a mid-term austerity plan that parliament is expected to pass, the country's new finance minister said on Friday.
    Link

    Protestors win? Sort of?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 10,012 ✭✭✭✭thebman


    Article on economist now that in their re-shuffle, nobody would accept the finance portfolio.

    Eventually the person that accepted it, did so on the third time of it being offered to them.

    Not exactly a good start. They are definitely going to end up defaulting IMO.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 53 ✭✭Prakari


    This is one of the greatest opportunities in history to take down the entire Western banking system. If Greece, Ireland or Portugal defaults, the European banking system fails because it is so highly leveraged. The U.S banks will also fail because they are involved in insuring against these countries defaulting. If these countries do not default, their public assets will be striped and their people will become debt slaves under the governance of a European, or possibly World central bank. I would be reasonable confident that the Greek people will take this opportunity and force government to default. The Greeks have a powerful motivation to take down the banking system as banking fraud is one of the primary reasons for their excessive debt.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 10,012 ✭✭✭✭thebman


    In order to do it they would need to take down the government and probably collapse the country into anarchy or civil war.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,053 ✭✭✭Cannibal Ox


    Dunno if this deserves a new topic at this stage.

    Tomorrow, Der Spiegel runs with:
    "Sudden and Expected: Obituary for a Common Currency"
    titel.jpg
    Link
    That's the Greek flag draped over the coffin. Germans, always had a good eye for detail.

    From keeptalkinggreece (Link) I've found this:
    The SPIEGEL claims that the Eurozone developed to the biggest danger for the future of Europe.” It notes that ” the Euro chains together national economies that do not fit together. However the politicians bet on more new programmes. This is the wrong way.”

    Furthermore, DER SPIEGEL believes that ” Europe is threatened economically and technically and as historical experiment, it has already gone bankrupt. It concludes that “the citizens, especially the young ones, do not know what to do with the EU” that they are unhinge with what the governments do with their money and that millions of them take out to the streets”.

    No idea what else is in it, but it's interesting that they suggest that the Euro is putting the EU at risk and needs to be done away with to keep the EU alive.

    At the moment, its been reported that Germany has pulled out of the agreement it reached with France and the ECB and G7 ministers are now on the phone discussing the Greeks (Link).

    At the same time, there's a three day debate going on in the Greek parliament over Panpandreou's leadership. There are also big protests planned for tomorrow.

    Things aren't really getting better are they?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 128 ✭✭motherriley


    Greece has more assessed to sell than Ireland to pay back what they are borrowing.

    They could sell off some of their many islands problems would be solved for them.

    What has Ireland to sell off.....:eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 558 ✭✭✭clear thinking


    The game is going to come down to flogging 50bn in assets and trying to somehow get back to about 125% debt/GDP.

    Greeks actually paying tax would help pay off the rest then.

    Problem solved.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,053 ✭✭✭Cannibal Ox


    It's hard to see how any option other then Greece exiting the EU is workable in the long term.


  • Registered Users Posts: 740 ✭✭✭z0oT


    Another interesting development:

    Standard and Poor's says "Consensual" Greek Bailout would be an event of Default.

    Germany have been pushing for private sector involvement in Greek Bailout #2 for a while now (which they've since backed off on), whereas Trichet has said that any such involvement must of of a "voluntary" nature, as not to trigger a credit event, presumably not to have to deal with things as CDS. However S&P has now said it'll regard that as a default regardless of it being voluntary or not.

    This it seems will throw quite a big spanner in the works for the ECB.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    Statement of Commissioner Olli Rehn on Greece
    This week Greece faces a critical juncture. Both the future of the country and financial stability in Europe are at stake. I fully respect the prerogatives and the sovereignty of the Greek Parliament in the ongoing debate. And I trust that the Greek political leaders are fully aware of the responsibility that lies on their shoulders to avoid default.

    The only way to avoid immediate default is for Parliament to endorse the revised economic programme. The programme includes both the medium-term fiscal strategy and the privatisation programme. They must be approved if the next tranche of financial assistance is to be released.

    To those who speculate about other options, let me say this clearly: there is no Plan B to avoid default.

    The European Union continues to be ready to support Greece. But Europe can only help Greece if Greece helps itself.

    While this week's Parliamentary vote is crucial to avoid immediate default, Greece and its European partners need to focus on enhancing sustainable growth. The initiative of President Barroso to use of structural funds for investment in a front-loaded manner responds to that objective. The Greek Memorandum also includes several measures to enhance growth through structural reforms in product and labour markets, and by opening up previously closed professions.

    The preparation of a new programme will intensify in the coming weeks. I believe that the constructive proposals coming from different sectors of Greek society need to be listened to and taken into account. It is vital to build a broader societal consensus and cross-party agreement on the reforms needed to put Greece back on a path of growth and sustainable development.

    This is also about social justice. One crucial challenge is to fight tax evasion and encourage real entrepreneurship that supports honest work. I therefore support the Government's objective of reforming and simplifying the tax system from this autumn. The reform should aim to simplify the tax code, broaden the tax base and reduce tax rates in a fiscally neutral way. If the expenditure containment objectives are achieved and surpassed, this will then pave the way for a more growth-friendly tax system.

    All in all, the Greek people and their democratic representatives now face a critical choice. Reforming the economy is certainly challenging, but it remains a far better alternative than a default, which would hit the most disadvantaged and vulnerable hardest. I therefore call on Greece's political leaders to assume this responsibility, and at the same time to look for next steps and to create a necessary political consensus, taking the whole nation forward to overcome the current challenges.

    Unusually political stuff there - the standard "there is no plan B" line, which, to be fair, is almost certainly the case.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    Read somewhere (can't find article now) that Greece might not be in as bad a situation as some think, unlike Ireland if you strip away debt repayments their tax intake actually now covers their public expenditure etc
    + they have a lot of assets which could be sold unlike Ireland which already privatized alot
    + unlike Ireland they have also borrowed money to spend on German weaponry which is not exactly essential, we instead splashed out on German cars

    If this is true then Greece should not be pushed to the edge since they might just say "feck it" default and go own way, food for thought there


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