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Eurovision Song Contest 2014
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Deleted User wrote: »I think you're overestimating a few there.
Malta - going first will hurt them, the song is very derivative and twee, and the vocal harmonies are messy towards the end.
Switzerland - very much a marmite entry. The whistling will grate on as many people as will enjoy it.
Austria - yes she's a good singer but there will be conservative voters and juries out there that could potentially damage her score.
Slovenia - admittedly I haven't heard the "new" version of this entry. On first listen though it was the most forgettable song of the second semi for me.
The quality of Semi 2 is definitely stronger overall than that of Semi 1 but I really don't see Ireland not qualifying. We may not be among the favourites but every year there are one or two of the "favourites" that fail to get out of the semis; San Marino in 2013, Norway in 2011, both Sweden and Slovakia in 2010 and, of course, Ireland in 2008! :P
Slovenia improved the instrumentation greatly, added majorly to the selling point of it
. Austria is nailing the jury vote if EiC is anything to go by - if people see past the beard and judge it on its own its sailing through!
As for Switzerland the fact you describe it as marmite is its major advantage over Ireland. Marmite implies love/hate - if youre hated it doesnt really affect you vote wise since negative voting doesnt exist =p, whereas if they've got lovers that transfers to televotes. The draw helps big time!
As for Malta it feels much more "authentic" than our song does - it doesnt sound like a cliche which was written with only ESC in mind. Can see it doing rather well with jurors.
I just really dont see Ireland as a major "favourite" to qualify and believe the entry will be in a major dogfight for the lower spots. Luckily only 5 entries dont qualify, so with a bit of luck it may sneak in.Would love to see Malta qualify, but I'm not so sure they'll get out of this semi. The UK voting will help them, along with us, but I'm not so sure that will be enough.
Try and flip the chessboard for a second - imagine Malta was Ireland's entry, and Ireland Malta's - how would you predict them to do then. The main danger is home nation bias when it comes to predictions - The main thing to remember is we see Ireland as a stand out entry by default due to it being Ireland - to everyone else its just one of another bunch of 36 songs! It gets one shot/one listen and if it sails on by thats that.0 -
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That's not true. I'm judging it based on predictions and polls from fans and journalists. I've seen very few that don't have Ireland as a qualifier. While I like the Maltese entry, it's not a eurovision song and will struggle to qualify. If we had their entry I would have the same opinion. Just like when we sent Dervish we were pretty much guaranteed a low position.
Fair enough! Opinions differ I suppose. I'm just wary of hopes being too high!. 0 -
Bottleopener wrote: »Fair enough! Opinions differ I suppose. I'm just wary of hopes being too high!.
In fairness, I'm always guilty of that. Really thought we had a pretty good song last year and thought we would come a lot higher than we did.0 -
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yerwanthere123 wrote: »Who are we picking to qualify from the semi's?
From semi 1 I'm picking Armenia, Azerbaijan, Sweden, Russia, Estonia, Hungary, Ukraine, Moldova, Belgium & The Netherlands.
Semi 2 is a lot harder given the amount of crap within it, but Norway, Israel, Greece, Poland, Romania and Ireland should all be pretty safe anyway. Will have to listen to the rest again to decide who the other four will be.
Obviously all of these could change on the night though.
Seriously? I find Semi 2 much better than Semi 1 in terms of overall quality. Semi 1 has Latvia (lol), Russia (blah), Estonia (rip-off), Portugal (no comment), Belgium (cheese), Ukraine (ESC prototype), Sweden (yawn), Montenegro (more yawn).....
All the Semi Two songs have at least one redeeming feature imo.
I keep changing my predictions but for Semi One I'm thinking:
Definitely safe: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Hungary, Sweden, Ukraine
Probably safe: Russia, Moldova, Belgium, Estonia
50-50: Montenegro, Netherlands, San Marino, Albania, Iceland (gonna predict Montengro for final spot, though I hope The Netherlands get it. If Albania had kept their song in Albanian I'd have rooted for it.)
No-hope: Latvia, Portugal
Semi Two:
Definitely safe: Romania, Norway, Greece
Probably safe: Ireland, Israel, Poland, Finland
50-50: Macedonia, Lithuania, Switzerland, Slovenia, Austria, Malta.
Tough battle between these six for three spots. I had Macedonia down as "probably safe" before but it's slipped a lot in the odds for some reason. I still think it'll get through though. I'm gonna guess Malta and (based on the updated version) Slovenia for the final two; I think Switzerland, Austria and Lithuania are all a bit too polarising to get the votes needed.
No-hope: Georgia, Belarus. Though if I was choosing I'd put both of them through.
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I wrote that comment a few weeks back, I've since listened to them all again and they're a lot better than I thoughtDeleted User wrote: »Seriously? I find Semi 2 much better than Semi 1 in terms of overall quality. Semi 1 has Latvia (lol), Russia (blah), Estonia (rip-off), Portugal (no comment), Belgium (cheese), Ukraine (ESC prototype), Sweden (yawn), Montenegro (more yawn).....
All the Semi Two songs have at least one redeeming feature imo.
I keep changing my predictions but for Semi One I'm thinking:
Definitely safe: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Hungary, Sweden, Ukraine
Probably safe: Russia, Moldova, Belgium, Estonia
50-50: Montenegro, Netherlands, San Marino, Albania, Iceland (gonna predict Montengro for final spot, though I hope The Netherlands get it. If Albania had kept their song in Albanian I'd have rooted for it.)
No-hope: Latvia, Portugal
Semi Two:
Definitely safe: Romania, Norway, Greece
Probably safe: Ireland, Israel, Poland, Finland
50-50: Macedonia, Lithuania, Switzerland, Slovenia, Austria, Malta.
Tough battle between these six for three spots. I had Macedonia down as "probably safe" before but it's slipped a lot in the odds for some reason. I still think it'll get through though. I'm gonna guess Malta and (based on the updated version) Slovenia for the final two; I think Switzerland, Austria and Lithuania are all a bit too polarising to get the votes needed.
No-hope: Georgia, Belarus. Though if I was choosing I'd put both of them through.
Does anyone think this may be the first year that Russia don't get out of their semi? It's extremely generic, I can see the juries putting it near the bottom of their rankings, and given everything that's going on in Crimea I doubt viewers at home will be inspired to vote for them.0 -
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BuilderPlumber wrote: »The fact that Ireland won it too often may also influence things and those who want to see others get their turn to win.
If Sweden win this year, they'll be just one behind Ireland...
Or is it merely that we are poor at pre-competition marketing our songs? Granted, there have been some downright awful Irish Eurovision entries (Dustin anybody!!) but most of them are acceptable at the very least and no worse than many of the other entries. So, song quality has nothing to do with it. Or is it the fact that we are focused mainly on ballads and not moving and dancing acts? Well, the 2005 entry proved this not to be the case. The two best recent songs were from 2006 (an almost country style ballad) and 2011 (a lively pop song). So, type of song does not seem to be the case either (afterall, various types of song from ballads to Lordi's heavy rock sound have won).
It's that RTE don't want to host the thing again, so they make sure that the acts they send stand little chance of winning.
That was the case even in 2011. Indeed, Jedward finished over 100 points behind Ell and Nikki... 0 -
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Go Harvey Go wrote: »If Sweden win this year, they'll be just one behind Ireland...
It's that RTE don't want to host the thing again, so they make sure that the acts they send stand little chance of winning.
That was the case even in 2011. Indeed, Jedward finished over 100 points behind Ell and Nikki...
I can certainly see Sweden winning it in the near future and maybe they will overtake Ireland as country that won it most often soon. I think ABBA have a lot to do with why Sweden is still at the races in the competition and they are great at marketing what they have to offer, and usually have a good song.
The fact that poor and/or obscure acts with no chance of winning it are chosen by RTE is scary. The Irish music industry is messed up at the moment in general with a lot of dull stuff dominating. But, it RTE/the Irish Eurovision team feels like this about winning, then they should opt out of the Eurovision. I bet every other country enters to win and NOT to lose. What makes the wanting to lose theory completely believable to me was Dustin! Now, I'm not anti-Dustin per se (he can be funny and he is a novelty act - but one best understood only by Irish especially Dublin people). Sending him to Europe was totally wrong as his humour was alien to them and it was perceived as an insult to the competition and sent out the message Ireland did not take it seriously! Perhaps we will have an entry to top it in due course? How about Iran's 2020 entry: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad imitating Saddam Hussein to the melody of Dana International's entry!0 -
BuilderPlumber wrote: »I can certainly see Sweden winning it in the near future and maybe they will overtake Ireland as country that won it most often soon.
By "the near future", do you by any chance mean "just under a month's time"?
I think ABBA have a lot to do with why Sweden is still at the races in the competition and they are great at marketing what they have to offer, and usually have a good song.
That, and also they have a proper contest to determine which act they send - Melodifestivalen, which is almost as old as the Eurovision itself.The fact that poor and/or obscure acts with no chance of winning it are chosen by RTE is scary. The Irish music industry is messed up at the moment in general with a lot of dull stuff dominating. But, it RTE/the Irish Eurovision team feels like this about winning, then they should opt out of the Eurovision.
I initally thought myself that RTE should opt out of the Eurovision - but then I decided, "Well, they clearly do still want to take part, and I suppose one can't really fault them for that..."I bet every other country enters to win and NOT to lose.
Many felt that the BBC were not entering to win when they sent Blue in 2011, Engelbert Humperdinck in 2012 and Bonnie Tyler in 2013...How about Iran's 2020 entry: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad imitating Saddam Hussein to the melody of Dana International's entry!
Once again, Iran has to apply for and obtain full EBU membership before it can take part in the Eurovision.
And I can't see that happening in the next six years, somehow... 0 -
Go Harvey Go wrote: »By "the near future", do you by any chance mean "just under a month's time"?
That, and also they have a proper contest to determine which act they send - Melodifestivalen, which is almost as old as the Eurovision itself.
I initally thought myself that RTE should opt out of the Eurovision - but then I decided, "Well, they clearly do still want to take part, and I suppose one can't really fault them for that..."
Many felt that the BBC were not entering to win when they sent Blue in 2011, Engelbert Humperdinck in 2012 and Bonnie Tyler in 2013...
Once again, Iran has to apply for and obtain full EBU membership before it can take part in the Eurovision.
And I can't see that happening in the next six years, somehow...
WRT Sweden and the near future: maybe they could well win it this May or if not, in the next few years. Sweden's Melodifestivalen shows they are professional and care about the Eurovision whereas Ireland has lost that in the last 15 years. The heart was in it for Ireland certainly in the 1960s-2000 period but not much since then.
RTE want to take part but sending Dustin (comedy act for Irish humour only) showed how little they respected the competition. Ireland is doing something wrong that the others are not doing and we cannot keep blaming block voting and the like either. The fact that we have come last or in the bottom 3 or 4 (or not even made it out of the semi finals) for all years bar 2003, 2006, 2011 and 2012 in the 2001 onwards period clearly shows something is wrong. In that period, we have had Eastern European, Middle Eastern, Scandinavian and German winners.
The UK tried everything and I thought Englebert's song was nice and catchy and deserved better than its fate. But again everything from block voting to Tony Blair's poor image were blamed each time I recall. But it is none of these alone obviously. Ireland and the UK were once 2 of the most prolific winners and we lost this for some reason.
WRT Iran: Definitely, Iran will be in the Eurovision but I agree definitely not in the next six years. There is a desire among its people for reform and the government there can't ignore forever the desire of Iranians saying that the UA Emirates are occupying the role Iran would have had was it not for the 1979 thing and the war with Iraq and poor government policies on religion and foreign policies. Unfortunately, there are forces who want to keep moderates down in Iran and there are forces in the West who fear Iran could under a moderate, modern government become a serious superpower rival. Anyway, when Iran does enter it, Ahmadinejad will be in his late 70s and exiled somewhere else I'm sure! And I don't know if he can sing his Saddam rhetoric to the tune of an Israeli Eurovision winner anyway 0 -
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