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Champion Hurdle, 13-03-12

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Comments

  • #362
    newuser89
    Closed Accounts Posts: 713 ✭✭✭newuser89


    Other (please specify)
    Binocular was 2nd to overturn this season with celestial halo back in third
    Of overturn wasn't in the race it would have look the exact same as it did at wincanton
    Binocular would look like he could win as he like
    Celestial halo isn't gd enough for grade 1s
    He's gd at carrying weight tho it would seem


  • #363
    UrbanSea
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Grandouet
    Aw sorry I didn't know who you were on about.

    You're discounting improvement from Binocular after his breathing op. Binocular could have put 10 lengths+ over Celestial Halo at Wincanton.


  • #364
    Shane732
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 4,991 Mod ✭✭✭✭Shane732


    Zarkandar
    UrbanSea wrote: »
    Aw sorry I didn't know who you were on about.

    You're discounting improvement from Binocular after his breathing op. Binocular could have put 10 lengths+ over Celestial Halo at Wincanton.

    Are you in the binocular or HF camp Urbansea?


  • #365
    newuser89
    Closed Accounts Posts: 713 ✭✭✭newuser89


    Other (please specify)
    I know that but I just can't put that form into context
    As celestial halo will prob finish 30l behind the winner in champ hurdle
    I can't see his last performance putting him in the frame
    It would give me confidence there could be more to come from him tho


  • #366
    UrbanSea
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Grandouet
    I've backed Binocular. I had no intention of doing so but he looked so good at Wincanton I thought 6/1 was far too big


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  • #367
    UrbanSea
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Grandouet
    newuser89 wrote: »
    I know that but I just can't put that form into context
    As celestial halo will prob finish 30l behind the winner in champ hurdle
    I can't see his last performance putting him in the frame
    It would give me confidence there could be more to come from him tho

    If this is true than the handicapper will have made an absolute balls of his ratings and should get his P45


  • #368
    Colonel Sanders
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    Zarkandar
    RoverJames wrote: »
    UrbanSea wrote: »
    ............ He's only 3

    When the ORs are considered and throw in the Cheltenham factor (not HF's most suitable track imo) I can't believe the mentions on here that 1/3 is a fair representation of his chances.

    I mentioned 1/3

    Not because I think he's a 1/3 shot. It wad the price implied by the poll when I posted (75% had selected HF)


  • #369
    sting60
    Registered Users Posts: 2,340 ✭✭✭sting60


    newuser89 wrote: »
    Celestial halo isn't a gd marker
    There's something funny about him
    How he wins with these big weights in handicaps but he was beaten over 20 lengths by overturn and another 20 by oscar whiskey in the past
    Binocular only managed 6 lengths even tho it was visually impressive.
    I think hes just a notch below what people think he is
    Phil Smith totally disagrees with your Celestial Halo assessment.Binocular is a far better horse going left handed.


  • #370
    newuser89
    Closed Accounts Posts: 713 ✭✭✭newuser89


    Other (please specify)
    1st hurricane fly
    2nd zarkandar
    3rd rock on ruby

    Anyone else want to give there forecast


  • #371
    Woddle
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,492 ✭✭✭Woddle


    Zarkandar
    1st - Hurricane fly
    2nd - Binocular
    3rd - Rock on Ruby/Zaidpour (have place money only on him, so I hope so)


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  • #372
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    RoverJames wrote: »
    When the ORs are considered and throw in the Cheltenham factor (not HF's most suitable track imo) I can't believe the mentions on here that 1/3 is a fair representation of his chances.
    Colonel Sanders wrote: »
    Using the poll results Boards users estimate HF to be a 1/4 shot!
    Shane732 wrote: »
    Think that would probably about the right price.
    Colonel Sanders wrote: »
    I mentioned 1/3

    Not because I think he's a 1/3 shot. It wad the price implied by the poll when I posted (75% had selected HF)

    I couldn't remember who said it :)


  • #373
    Shane732
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 4,991 Mod ✭✭✭✭Shane732


    Zarkandar
    In terms of when HF fly beat Binocular 9 lengths -

    Do you think HF was flattered by that performance? Do you think Binocular has improved since this race?


  • #374
    UrbanSea
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Grandouet
    I'm repeating this for about the twelfth time.


    Of course he has. His last run was a 170 rated performance. He clearly beneffited from his breathing op


  • #375
    newuser89
    Closed Accounts Posts: 713 ✭✭✭newuser89


    Other (please specify)
    Hurricane fly probably was not at his best winning at punchestown
    He had long season and tough race at Cheltenham
    Binocular was fresh as a daisy lol


  • #376
    sting60
    Registered Users Posts: 2,340 ✭✭✭sting60


    Shane732 wrote: »
    In terms of when HF fly beat Binocular 9 lengths -

    Do you think HF was flattered by that performance? Do you think Binocular has improved since this race?
    As has been pointed out there is no question Binocular has improved.Binocular according to the handicapper will run to 173 which leaves him dead-heating with HF.We all know HF has not had the best prep for this years renewal,so can he improve from his last race to a higher mark .


  • #377
    newuser89
    Closed Accounts Posts: 713 ✭✭✭newuser89


    Other (please specify)
    Binoculars mark belies himself
    He will do very well to place
    I think


  • #378
    sting60
    Registered Users Posts: 2,340 ✭✭✭sting60


    newuser89 wrote: »
    Binoculars mark belies himself
    He will do very well to place
    I think
    You could be right.Last years race was not a strong race and I base that on the following.2ND Peddlers Cross now chasing,3RD Oscars Whisky 3 mile stayer hurdles,4TH Thousand Stars 3 mile stayer hurdles and 5TH home Menorah is now chasing.HF is the likely winner but 4/6 is wrong.What did he beat at Leopardstown to justify those odds...2ND Oscars Well hated the ground and ran of a mark 157,3RD Thousand Stars runs in the stayers hurdle,4TH the mare Unaccompanied 157 not thought good enough to run at Cheltenham [Weld thinks she was not well at Leo],5TH and last Kalaan 144 .I think this is the toughest race HF has been in for some time.Not for me at 4/6.Good ground horses are the key to every race at the festival.


  • #379
    mdwexford
    Registered Users Posts: 11,274 ✭✭✭✭mdwexford


    A post from sting I agree with, who would have thought it.

    At evens HF is a bet though I think.


  • #380
    leggit
    Registered Users Posts: 936 ✭✭✭leggit


    Zarkandar
    1st - HF
    2nd - Zarkander
    3rd - Binocular


  • #381
    sting60
    Registered Users Posts: 2,340 ✭✭✭sting60


    mdwexford wrote: »
    A post from sting I agree with, who would have thought it.

    At evens HF is a bet though I think.
    The analysis on HF was based on the price quoted of 4/6.If 1/1 was available then take the following into account.His last four runs [ratings] are higher than anything achieved by other contenders,Timeform have rated him 174 one pound higher than Phil smith.


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  • #382
    tipster
    Registered Users Posts: 185 ✭✭tipster


    Zarkandar
    hurricane fly should be 1/4 hes an absolute machine his rivals arent in the same league .last year dispelled any doubts about the track and i think hes an even better horse this year


  • #383
    UrbanSea
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Grandouet
    He should be a 1/4 shot even if he is only 3 lbs ahead on ratings?


  • #384
    tipster
    Registered Users Posts: 185 ✭✭tipster


    Zarkandar
    i know i might be exagerating and i know theres only 3lbs on the ratings officially but i just think he has way more in hand than that cosidering the opposition just my view but i never rated binocular at his best and hes not going to improve now and from talking to a couple of people in mullins they think hes going there at least 25% better this year and its a much weaker race.btw they really fancy allee garde in the 4 miler on wednesday.


  • #385
    hucklebuck
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,173 ✭✭✭hucklebuck


    Binocular
    sting60 wrote: »
    Timeform have rated him 174 one pound higher than Phil smith.

    Phil Smith was a top class 2 mile hurdler :pac:


  • #386
    hucklebuck
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,173 ✭✭✭hucklebuck


    Binocular
    sting60 wrote: »
    You could be right.Last years race was not a strong race and I base that on the following.2ND Peddlers Cross now chasing,3RD Oscars Whisky 3 mile stayer hurdles,4TH Thousand Stars 3 mile stayer hurdles and 5TH home Menorah is now chasing.HF is the likely winner but 4/6 is wrong.What did he beat at Leopardstown to justify those odds...2ND Oscars Well hated the ground and ran of a mark 157,3RD Thousand Stars runs in the stayers hurdle,4TH the mare Unaccompanied 157 not thought good enough to run at Cheltenham [Weld thinks she was not well at Leo],5TH and last Kalaan 144 .I think this is the toughest race HF has been in for some time.Not for me at 4/6.Good ground horses are the key to every race at the festival.

    What are you expecting from this years field bar Zarkandar?

    This sh!t annoys me "What has Hurricane Fly beaten?":rolleyes:


  • #387
    sting60
    Registered Users Posts: 2,340 ✭✭✭sting60


    hucklebuck wrote: »
    Phil Smith was a top class 2 mile hurdler :pac:
    Its a cracker.


  • #388
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    tipster wrote: »
    hurricane fly should be 1/4 hes an absolute machine his rivals arent in the same league .last year dispelled any doubts about the track and i think hes an even better horse this year

    He should be 1/4 but will go off at evens (ish).
    Unreal how the bookies priced that one up so wrong, Champion Hurdle and all :pac:


  • #389
    sting60
    Registered Users Posts: 2,340 ✭✭✭sting60


    Its all about opinion.I dont think he is a 1/4 shot or a 4/6 shot.He is a lay at 4/6.


  • #390
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    ..... I think evens is about right tbh.


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  • #391
    Shane732
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 4,991 Mod ✭✭✭✭Shane732


    Zarkandar
    sting60 wrote: »
    You could be right.Last years race was not a strong race and I base that on the following.2ND Peddlers Cross now chasing,3RD Oscars Whisky 3 mile stayer hurdles,4TH Thousand Stars 3 mile stayer hurdles and 5TH home Menorah is now chasing.HF is the likely winner but 4/6 is wrong.What did he beat at Leopardstown to justify those odds...2ND Oscars Well hated the ground and ran of a mark 157,3RD Thousand Stars runs in the stayers hurdle,4TH the mare Unaccompanied 157 not thought good enough to run at Cheltenham [Weld thinks she was not well at Leo],5TH and last Kalaan 144 .I think this is the toughest race HF has been in for some time.Not for me at 4/6.Good ground horses are the key to every race at the festival.

    In fairness you could do the same to Champion Hurdle Binocular won.

    The horse that was 2nd to Binocular (Khyber Kim) was beaten 18l by HF and then finished 40l+ behind Big Bucks in a stayers. 3rd Zayner is now chasing.

    4th Celestial Halo was 12l behind Binocular in the Champion Hurdle and is probably a similar distance behind him now. I certainly think Celestial Halo has gone backwards since the 2010 Champion Hurdle.

    5th Starluck is now a dual chase and hurdler.

    6th Solwhit has been beaten on a number of occasions by HF.

    7th Merdermit is now chasing.


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