BOI shares steadily rising... Worth a punt?

Idu · 16-06-2009 8:28am

TTNYWWBM wrote: »

I think NAMA IMHO will boost the banks share prices.

Why?

ixus · 16-06-2009 8:42am

I'm re-reading a few studies on behavioural finance at the moment. This thread, and similar ones truely are an indication that investors are irrational.

Some of the themes displayed here are:
Framing of Decisions
Loss Aversion
Representativeness
Anchoring
The lack of understanding of Rational Choice
Overreaction
..and the list goes on.

I'd urge the punters on here to learn just a little on some of these topics.
You should be able to make better investment decisions after it.

rugbyman · 16-06-2009 8:47am

thank you TTNYWWBM,

A definite OPINION on here is quite something.!
I simply dont know how things will pan out,
regards ,Rugbyman

Idu · 16-06-2009 8:48am

Would you not like to find out the basis of his opinion though. Having a definite opinion is all well and good if there's some logic behind it. Otherwise it's just the same as flipping a coin

TTNYWWBM · 16-06-2009 9:02am

ixus wrote: »

I'm re-reading a few studies on behavioural finance at the moment. This thread, and similar ones truely are an indication that investors are irrational.

Some of the themes displayed here are:
Framing of Decisions
Loss Aversion
Representativeness
Anchoring
The lack of understaning of Rational Choice
Overreaction
..and the list goes on.

I'd urge the punters on here to learn just a little on some of these topics.
You should be able to make better investment decisions after it.

I totally agree ixus, I can see by the trades going through that the SP is almost totally influenced by small volume trades - punters.

Indeed we should all learn from this going forward.

Rugbyman, yes I've made a decision on my NAMA position, 60% in bonds is better to a balance sheet than 100% of toxic debts. On any standpoint this makes good business sense, common sense has to prevail. BOI + AIB will rise post NAMA. It's as simple as that. Common sense should prevail over pessimists, anoraks and bean counters. The punter has the power.

Henry Ford said something like; "If I think I can, or I think I can't I'll be right either way!" IF the punter has the confidence to hold pre NAMA they will see gains as the loans are transferred in blocks, and of course if they bottle it the prices will fall, as simple as that.

royaler83 · 16-06-2009 9:15am

TTNYWWBM wrote: »

, and of course if they bottle it the prices will fall, as simple as that.

And then thats where I come in........:D

pocketdooz · 16-06-2009 9:25am

The share price of BOI or AIB will rise and fall based on the confidence of the punter and if only the ECB would stop printing those nasty things about our great system everything would be great and rosy.

In fairness - if you believe this you deserve to lose money . . .

ranger4 · 16-06-2009 9:34am

pocketdooz wrote: »

The share price of BOI or AIB will rise and fall based on the confidence of the punter and if only the ECB would stop printing those nasty things about our great system everything would be great and rosy.

In fairness - if you believe this you deserve to lose money . . .

Hello Pocketdooz, what do you see happining to aib-boi sp on run upto nama?

Time Magazine · 16-06-2009 9:37am

ixus wrote: »

I'm re-reading a few studies on behavioural finance at the moment. This thread, and similar ones truely are an indication that investors are irrational.

Some of the themes displayed here are:
Framing of Decisions
Loss Aversion
Representativeness
Anchoring
The lack of understanding of Rational Choice
Overreaction
..and the list goes on.

I'd urge the punters on here to learn just a little on some of these topics.
You should be able to make better investment decisions after it.

If only!

TTNYWWBM · 16-06-2009 9:42am

pocketdooz wrote: »

The share price of BOI or AIB will rise and fall based on the confidence of the punter and if only the ECB would stop printing those nasty things about our great system everything would be great and rosy.

In fairness - if you believe this you deserve to lose money . . .

You must have misinterpreted what I wrote about the ECB, they meant no malice in releasing the recent reports they were just cold hard facts, but mostly related to other euro banks, it's the misinterpretation of that report that caused the freefall yesterday, were seeing an upturn of both bank SPs now as mostly investors and punters realise what actually happened!

It's quite a reckless report not 'nasty', as it was too generalistic not specific to each country BTW.

Idu · 16-06-2009 9:52am

It was specific to the eurozone of which we're a member so it's hardly reckless. It also doesn't mention any specific banks so you can't just exclude Irish banks because it doesn't suit your stance

ranger4 · 17-06-2009 10:26am

Idu wrote: »

It's tough being right the whole time. I'm still waiting for this sell off you called

You were saying.:D

Idu · 17-06-2009 10:30am

on 21/5/2009:

ranger4 wrote: »

I expect the next leg down to support to start today with selloff friday.

Yeah Nostradamus you were only 27 days wrong!!

Plus if you check my next post I did call the need for trend support to be taken out before I would take a bearish view and that was taken out on Monday

ranger4 · 17-06-2009 10:33am

Idu wrote: »

on 21/5/2009:

Yeah Nostradamus you were only 27 days wrong

Better bit late than never, Leg down due just happened 27 days Late.:D

AntiRip · 17-06-2009 6:34pm

ranger4 wrote: »

Better bit late than never, Leg down due just happened 27 days Late.:D

jesus, that was some leg down!

Idu · 17-06-2009 7:18pm

hope you're not still holding those BOI shares

TaxiManMartin · 17-06-2009 8:31pm

so glad i convinced the other half to cash the other day.
Couldnt convince her to cash in the last 10 grand though

AntiRip · 17-06-2009 8:54pm

Idu wrote: »

hope you're not still holding those BOI shares

Can I ask you something, why are you telling me to lose e2000? It costs me 70c per day to roll it over. If it is a blip or correction it may go up in the future. Surely there is a chance of making it back again in the future? I don't feel good about this but I do have hope to recoup.

I don't plan to spreadbet again so I will have no opportunity to make anything back if I do close my trade.

lucky-colm · 17-06-2009 8:57pm

thinking of going short on boi tomorrow any thoughts

AntiRip · 17-06-2009 8:59pm

lucky-colm wrote: »

thinking of going short on boi tomorrow any thoughts

God I hope not

lucky-colm · 17-06-2009 9:03pm

AntiRip wrote: »

God I hope not

lol i have shares bought aswell bought them at 1.60 so i hope they dont fall either but it seems to be the trend

AntiRip · 17-06-2009 9:05pm

lucky-colm wrote: »

lol i have shares bought aswell bought them at 1.60 so i hope they dont fall either but it seems to be the trend

I know yeah, you shouldn't ask me for advice judging from my last trade

ixus · 17-06-2009 9:06pm

lucky-colm wrote: »

thinking of going short on boi tomorrow any thoughts

Yes, tell us why?

BOI gone from approx 2.25 to 1.66 (circa -25%) in 3 days.
Could you have missed your opportunity?
Has the shorting ban been lifted on Irish banks (I don't really pay attention to these anymore)?

Watch out for all the other punters who'll think it's a great time to buy!

Idu · 17-06-2009 9:16pm

AntiRip wrote: »

If it is a blip or correction it may go up in the future. Surely there is a chance of making it back again in the future?

And there's an equal and in my opinion more likely chance that it will continue to fall making your loss bigger and bigger

I cant understand why people cant just get out of losers and then if you feel the market is going back up then buy back in again.

The only post where you've mentioned making money was a 121 quid profit. If you are taking that size of a winner then you can't afford to be going 2000 offside on any trade. This is a sure fire way to go broke.

Number one rule of successful trading is cut your losers.

What reasons can you give me to think that BOI is going to rally back to 2.13 in the near future?

How long can you let that trade go against you before all your capital is gone?

How much are you willing to lose before you realise that it may not be coming back anytime soon?

Why don't you plan on spreadbetting again? The fact that you can't recoup the loss through spreadbetting should be irrelevant in your thinking

You rushed into the live market without doing any proper research on the simulator. One post you've lost 900 quid of fake money and the next you're diving right in feet first

Thats just a few points. The amount of people on here with no grasp of any kind of trading discipline or even theory continues to astound me. Obviously I don't want to see anyone losing money especially when these things are so avoidable with even a little research and a trading plan.

Good luck with it

AntiRip · 17-06-2009 9:31pm

Idu wrote: »

I cant understand why people cant just get out of losers and then if you feel the market is going back up then buy back in again.

That was my mistake to begin with.

Idu wrote: »

What reasons can you give me to think that BOI is going to rally back to 2.13 in the near future?

Haven't a clue. Could you tell me? Not being smart but nobody really know for sure. I can leave it there for months if I wanted to.

Idu wrote: »

How long can you let that trade go against you before all your capital is gone?

If the share price goes to 0.00 it will cost me e12,400. I have e125k in savings so I'm pretty safe there.

Idu wrote: »

Why don't you plan on spreadbetting again?

Obviously I haven't a clue what I'm doing and it's high risk

Idu wrote: »

You rushed into the live market without doing any proper research on the simulator. One post you've lost 900 quid of fake money and the next you're diving right in feet first

Market research on simulator?

Idu wrote: »

Good luck with it

Thanks

Idu · 17-06-2009 9:43pm

If you have 125k in savings then why not just take the 2k hit an move on? Not like it's making a huge dent or anything

Amigomenor · 17-06-2009 9:55pm

I would not recommend anyone buying shares in any financial institution at this moment in time. Volatility is very high and is actually misleading as the float on the shares is quite limited.
The banks will ultimately lose 100% of their value. It may not happen this week but it shall happen before the year end.
As for spread betting I would not recommend this as often you will find your position closed out before you even have a chance to react. The swing on the market will make your margins very wide. I hera you say stop/loss trading and yes that is probably an option but again the swings may mean that you could hit that on the day in question if an institution starts buying/offloading the shares.
The reality is that the market and the economy in general are in desperate trouble. The governments of the world think printing money will work but that will just lead to currences crashing. I have no confidence in the governmets to figure this out but then i would not have confidence in the best mind in the worlk working this out.
My suggestion is prepare for a very rocky future with social unrest, food shortages and general enoconimic and social woes. I hate to have to say it but we are f*cked

lucky-colm · 17-06-2009 10:19pm

Amigomenor wrote: »

I would not recommend anyone buying shares in any financial institution at this moment in time. Volatility is very high and is actually misleading as the float on the shares is quite limited.
The banks will ultimately lose 100% of their value. It may not happen this week but it shall happen before the year end.
As for spread betting I would not recommend this as often you will find your position closed out before you even have a chance to react. The swing on the market will make your margins very wide. I hera you say stop/loss trading and yes that is probably an option but again the swings may mean that you could hit that on the day in question if an institution starts buying/offloading the shares.
The reality is that the market and the economy in general are in desperate trouble. The governments of the world think printing money will work but that will just lead to currences crashing. I have no confidence in the governmets to figure this out but then i would not have confidence in the best mind in the worlk working this out.
My suggestion is prepare for a very rocky future with social unrest, food shortages and general enoconimic and social woes. I hate to have to say it but we are f*cked

so if your prediction comes true we are going to be a governmentless and lawless country with inflation escalating at enormous rates

so the money in your bank wont buy yuou a loaf of bread so u might aswell gamble and see if u can make enough to buy lots of high inflationary loafs of bread or loose the lot and still not be able to buy a loaf of bread

you are f***ed if you do and you are f^^^ked if you dont

RebelGirrrl · 18-06-2009 12:05am

Did it go down because of Obama's plan or will it tomorrow or does this have any barings on worldwide banks at all?

Daragh101 · 18-06-2009 12:41am

Amigomenor wrote: »

I would not recommend anyone buying shares in any financial institution at this moment in time. Volatility is very high and is actually misleading as the float on the shares is quite limited.
The banks will ultimately lose 100% of their value. It may not happen this week but it shall happen before the year end.
As for spread betting I would not recommend this as often you will find your position closed out before you even have a chance to react. The swing on the market will make your margins very wide. I hera you say stop/loss trading and yes that is probably an option but again the swings may mean that you could hit that on the day in question if an institution starts buying/offloading the shares.
The reality is that the market and the economy in general are in desperate trouble. The governments of the world think printing money will work but that will just lead to currences crashing. I have no confidence in the governmets to figure this out but then i would not have confidence in the best mind in the worlk working this out.
My suggestion is prepare for a very rocky future with social unrest, food shortages and general enoconimic and social woes. I hate to have to say it but we are f*cked

go back to sleep buddy!!!!

BOI shares steadily rising... Worth a punt?

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