NFL Betting Thread 2014/2015

Don't normally bet on these markets, but Cutler @ 28/1 looks tempting.

Combo of Cutler/McCown was a top 5 QB last season, and that was in Trestman's 1st year running the offense.

I don't bet pre-season games because I just have no idea how to handicap them, but I wouldn't mind doing so. One angle here...

Why I’m Betting on the 2014 NFL Preseason

Makes a pretty good case. Don't think he means you should blindly bet overs, but to look for spots and lean that way.


Still find the pre-season games useful as prep work to try and hit week 1 running. Best value is in the early weeks of the season imo.

padraig_f wrote: »

I don't bet pre-season games because I just have no idea how to handicap them, but I wouldn't mind doing so. One angle here...

Why I’m Betting on the 2014 NFL Preseason

Makes a pretty good case. Don't think he means you should blindly bet overs, but to look for spots and lean that way.


Still find the pre-season games useful as prep work to try and hit week 1 running. Best value is in the early weeks of the season imo.

I read that when the email went out, and managed to get the early line - obviously still a loser, angle or no angle. Would be fairly confident of winning throughout the season if I was beating the closing line by 5 points though!

Yeah I wouldn't back it blindly, I think in this case 32.5 was just particularly low all things considered. It also seemed to me that both teams pulled the starting QB very early in proceedings (not sure of no of minutes a starting QB would "usually" play though, so could be wrong). A few more completions leading to another FG or 2 and we're over.

Apparently the Pats are being heavily backed giving up -1.5 @ Washington.

The only overs bet in the upcoming games that I like from my own numbers is Dallas - San Diego at 36.5. It is the same as Tampa-Jacksonville for example, and IMO should be higher. But then you have to factor these unknowns, so how good a bet do you have to think it is before you back it knowing that a starting QB could be yanked 10 minutes in...

gufc21 wrote: »

Love how PP completely bricked it and closed all markets on pre season games once they start. barring the colts game ya can't get any market on the games tonight.

You mean they don't cover them inrunning? How is that bricking it? You can only cover a limited amount of stuff inrunning, and they would obviously rather cover other stuff than nfl pre season which would turn over pennies

Hulk Hands wrote: »

You mean they don't cover them inrunning? How is that bricking it? You can only cover a limited amount of stuff inrunning, and they would obviously rather cover other stuff than nfl pre season which would turn over pennies

Both actually. There was a couple they didn't cover pre game either. Demand? At 2 in morn?

gufc21 wrote: »

Both actually. There was a couple they didn't cover pre game either. Demand? At 2 in morn?

Inrunning games require constant trader intervention. They would probably have to bring in staff to cover games in the middle of the night that noone has interest in. I think people forget bookies are a business at times. When they pull a market etc they've obviously calculated that its not profitable leaving it up, they don't have an obligation to offer anything

I think the Giants will bounce back and have a decent season, Manning will find form again and Randle is a "3rd year breakout WR" candidate. 2.5 doesn't look massive on the Eagles to me, without looking at their schedule.

New NFL betting podcast 'Even Money' with Ross Tucker http://www.rosstucker.com/wp/podcasts/even-money/
Listened to the first one. Pretty good.

gufc21 wrote: »

Haven't listened to it but will tonight. I'd just find it difficult to take advice from someone who has spent last two years saying how stupid peop are for betting on nfl

Tucker ain't the one really giving the advice. He's with some pro gambler.

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Now would be a good time to get on the Vikings at 23/10 for week one, Tampa Bay at 10/11 for week 2, and the Rams under 7.5 wins at 6/5

Yeah Bradford is a big loss alright. Bet365 have suspended the markets on the Rams at the minute though.

Two early prices that I like for week 1 are Bears -6 against the Bills in Soldier field and Panthers in a scratch game at Tampa Bay.

The Bills have been woeful in the preseason and it doesnt look like EJ Manuel is going to be able to get the ball to Watkins, Woods etc enough for them to do well enough on offence. The Bears have arguably the best wide receiver duo in the game and a legit top 5 running back in Matt Forte. Although they lost Julius Peppers, Briggs being back is like a new signing too and a few rookies that struggled last year should be better on defence. I would have had this line at 10 and I think its only as low as it is because it's the first game of the year.

The Panthers are a lot of people's picks to be one of the bigger slides from last years fantastic season. Yes Cam Newton hasnt got the weapons that he probably needs but I think that defence is still stingy enough to keep Josh McCown and his wideouts quiet. Tampa Bay's offensive line is woeful and I can see the Panthers putting McCown under enough pressure and forcing turnovers and then doing just about enough on offence to get the win.

Yeah agreed, they look a better team all around this year though, I just find it inconceivable that he'll be that bad two whole seasons in a row.

Everything about sports betting tells us not to read too much into short-term form / small sample sizes. Eli Manning is no different.

Going to stick with the Jets alot this season in there matches. Think they could go 10 and 6 over the season and are bound to return some euro over that period.

Think the 49ers could be turned over early on this season. But most will have priced that in but hopefully looking for an angle. Panthers I will be going against in a lot of games also with so many off season losses and Cam dodgy rib.