An Israeli strike on Iran

Voltex · 16-08-2012 8:56pm #1

I know this topic has been discussed lots of times on boards, but Im just curious as to how this would unfold.
In my mind the most obvious strategy would be air stirkes, but would the use of Jericho balistic missiles be an option and if so what would an Iranian response be?

Im asking these questions because it seems highly likely that there will be a strike on Iran before the US Presidential elections in November.

goldie fish · 16-08-2012 11:40pm

Who says ?

Tatankbull · 16-08-2012 11:46pm

Even if it's propaganda and an attempt to scare America into supporting increasingly stringent sanctions and future military action, this is still a fairly accurate picture of what Israel could do to Iran...

http://www.richardsilverstein.com/tikun_olam/2012/08/15/bibis-secret-war-plan/

"The Israeli attack will open with a coordinated strike, including an unprecedented cyber-attack which will totally paralyze the Iranian regime and its ability to know what is happening within its borders. The internet, telephones, radio and television, communications satellites, and fiber optic cables leading to and from critical installations—including underground missile bases at Khorramabad and Isfahan—will be taken out of action. The electrical grid throughout Iran will be paralyzed and transformer stations will absorb severe damage from carbon fiber munitions which are finer than a human hair, causing electrical short circuits whose repair requires their complete removal. This would be a Sisyphean task in light of cluster munitions which would be dropped, some time-delayed and some remote-activated through the use of a satellite signal.

A barrage of tens of ballistic missiles would be launched from Israel toward Iran. 300km ballistic missiles would be launched from Israeli submarines in the vicinity of the Persian Gulf. The missiles would not be armed with unconventional warheads [WMD], but rather with high-explosive ordnance equipped with reinforced tips designed specially to penetrate hardened targets.

The missiles will strike their targets—some exploding above ground like those striking the nuclear reactor at Arak–which is intended to produce plutonium and tritium—and the nearby heavy water production facility; the nuclear fuel production facilities at Isfahan and facilities for enriching uranium-hexaflouride. Others would explode under-ground, as at the Fordo facility.

A barrage of hundreds of cruise missiles will pound command and control systems, research and development facilities, and the residences of senior personnel in the nuclear and missile development apparatus. Intelligence gathered over years will be utilized to completely decapitate Iran’s professional and command ranks in these fields.

After the first wave of attacks, which will be timed to the second, the “Blue and White” radar satellite, whose systems enable us to perform an evaluation of the level of damage done to the various targets, will pass over Iran. Only after rapidly decrypting the satellite’s data, will the information be transferred directly to war planes making their way covertly toward Iran. These IAF planes will be armed with electronic warfare gear previously unknown to the wider public, not even revealed to our U.S. ally. This equipment will render Israeli aircraft invisible. Those Israeli war planes which participate in the attack will damage a short-list of targets which require further assault.

Among the targets approved for attack—Shihab 3 and Sejil ballistic missile silos, storage tanks for chemical components of rocket fuel, industrial facilities for producing missile control systems, centrifuge production plants and more."

Tatankbull · 16-08-2012 11:53pm

Oh and I found this article about Iran's asymmetrical naval warfare capabilities interesting but it probably won't play much of a role in any future Israel strike unless it escalates with Iran closing off the Straits of Hormuz.

http://www.richardsilverstein.com/tikun_olam/2012/08/15/bibis-secret-war-plan/

AngryHippie · 17-08-2012 12:01am

There is no way they could ever justify such an attack on pre-emptive grounds, even if they decide to use a clear and present danger justification.
It would not end well for anyone in the middle east, and imho would result in the entire region becoming a nuclear wasteland.
I doubt the Israelis are keen to provoke a nuclear holocaust despite their passive aggressive policies and their despicable treatment of the Palestinians

KickstartHeart · 17-08-2012 12:36am

They're handing out gas-masks etc. in preparation for retaliation on Israeli soil in Israel. I can't find the link to show this but if you go to militaryphotos.net I saw it in a recently 'most viewed' forum there.

Tatankbull · 17-08-2012 12:58am

I think there's a lot of wag-the-dog stuff going on at the moment. The gas masks, the 'leaked' war memos and the terrorist incidents traced back to the enemy are fairly typical and predictable steps in the process of putting the populace onto a war footing. Saying that, I don't think Israel necessarily wants war and probably in the short term is aiming for stronger sanctions, diplomatic pressure, etc.

KickstartHeart · 17-08-2012 1:04am

I'm no defence analyst, but its all a game, and it looks like the game they're trying to play is making the rest of the world think that they're going to go ape if the international community doesn't impose harder sanctions on Iran.

westdub · 17-08-2012 7:39am

AngryHippie wrote: »

There is no way they could ever justify such an attack on pre-emptive grounds, even if they decide to use a clear and present danger justification.
It would not end well for anyone in the middle east, and imho would result in the entire region becoming a nuclear wasteland.
I doubt the Israelis are keen to provoke a nuclear holocaust despite their passive aggressive policies and their despicable treatment of the Palestinians

You have heard of ''Operation Opera''?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Opera

bluecode · 17-08-2012 1:13pm

The attack on the Nuclear plant had a very specific target. That proposed attack on Iran would be of an order of magnitude greater than that.

Which makes it unlikely. The so called 'secret war plan' is nothing of the sort. Merely one of several possible scenarios. Indeed if you read on into the article the author points out how it wouldn't work anyway. A fact that cannot have escaped the notice of the Israeli planners.

However there is a threat to Israel from Iran. Iran are quite explicit about it so the Israelis must take it seriously.

On the other hand there is a lot of posturing and propaganda on both sides. It's in Iran's interest to keep the focus on the 'evil' Israelis. Keeps the population distracted away from internal dissent. Suits their purpose amirably.

Voltex · 17-08-2012 8:31pm

If you look back on the history of Israel's wars, the one time they suffered a significant first defeat was during the Yom Kippur. Ok so they managed to claw back the initial losses, but Im sure it was a lesson that Israel will always rely on a first stike in an effort to maintain a strategic advantage.

In terms of when Israel will strike Iran, the fact Syria is out of the equation temporarily only adds to the limited window of opportunity.

Tatankbull · 17-08-2012 11:44pm

Unlike Iran's pronouncements about destroying Israel, I actually believe the Israelis when they make these threats:

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/08/201281717556151270.html

"Last month, an Israeli general warned that the Israeli military would respond "decisively" to any rocket attacks aimed at Tel Aviv.

"If we get to another war, Israel will hit Hezbollah decisively, quickly, as fast as we can in order to stop the fire from Lebanon to Israel," Brigadier General Herzi Halevi, commander of the country's northern division, said at a briefing.

He also said that towns in southern Lebanon used as launching bases for Hezbollah rocket attacks would be "destroyed"."

goldie fish · 18-08-2012 12:28am

Didn't we have another troll on here a while back posting nothing but threads about Iran?

GaryIrv93 · 18-08-2012 12:40am

Wouldn't a strike on nuclear sites result in Iranian version of Chernobyl? For that reason I'd oppose any sort of strike and also in a way understand Iran's right to explore and develop it's own nuclear energy, although I wouldn't entirely trust them given their potential to develop nuclear weapons.

One thing's clear though - if you know what's good for you, you do NOT attack a country with nuclear capabilities, no matter how small. That should be everyday common sense. If they developed a warhead, I'd say they could detonate it anywhere in the world they wanted without too much trouble.

An Israeli strike on Iran

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