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Bet on McCain for Presidency

  • 07-10-2008 10:07pm
    #1
    todolist
    Registered Users Posts: 811 ✭✭✭


    McCain is 11/4 to win the Presidency with Power and Ladbrokes.In a two horse race that's amazing odds.McCain has a great chance of winning.I believe he will close the gap on Obama and win the Presidency.Get on now!


«13

Comments

  • #2
    Bluetonic
    Registered Users Posts: 7,588 ✭✭✭Bluetonic


    The price is 10/3 in Lad & PP.

    It's far from as simple as saying it's a two horse race, how simplistic.


  • #3
    Ace2007
    Registered Users Posts: 19,638 ✭✭✭✭Ace2007


    there are 2 canidates - how is it not as simple... its a 50/50 and ur getting 11/4 on ur money...


  • #4
    kryogen
    Closed Accounts Posts: 25,953 ✭✭✭✭kryogen


    if an election was held today the republicans would win, i can tell you that as someone who has lots of family and friends stateside......

    there is the feeling that obama may win the country over before the election but as it stands he is apparently in the second place in the race

    as i said, this is what i hear from my people on the other side of the pond

    without getting too political, i was wondering why everyone i meet in ireland wants obama to win? he will be doing more harm to ireland then mccain :)


  • #5
    ArmaniJeanss
    Registered Users Posts: 13,285 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    kryogen wrote: »
    if an election was held today the republicans would win, i can tell you that as someone who has lots of family and friends stateside......

    It depends where they live really as to whether thats of any relevance.
    There are a huge percentage of Americans who always vote Red or Blue regardless of who the candidates are, such that some states have voted the same way in the last 6+ elections, so much so that those states are rarely even contested by the other candidate.
    The election is effectively decided by a few million swing voters in maybe a dozen swing states. (Ironically Hillary did better than Obama in the primaries in those states).

    I agree that McCain would be marginally the better result for Ireland PLC, but in the bigger picture I think most see that the world just might be a better place long term if Obama wins.

    Edit:
    ToDoList = Ace2007 by the way.
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=57501714&postcount=33776


  • #6
    kryogen
    Closed Accounts Posts: 25,953 ✭✭✭✭kryogen


    My connections with the states are located in

    Miami, Vermont, Boston, San Fran and new york and chicago.... its a decent enough mix in fairness

    i think we bettter get back to betting or it will be moved to politics! nobody wants that :)

    what price is Ron Paul lol



    just cheked the PP website, the price on mccain +110 electoral votes, 5/6 get on


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  • #7
    Oshare Bones
    Closed Accounts Posts: 118 ✭✭Oshare Bones


    That seems like a very good price for mccain, 10/3 . Seems they are basing the price on current opinion polls or something. They might say they will but I still don't believe americans will vote a black president in. kryogen which of obama's policies would negatively affect ireland?


  • #8
    kryogen
    Closed Accounts Posts: 25,953 ✭✭✭✭kryogen


    Oshare Bones wrote: »
    That seems like a very good price for mccain, 10/3 . Seems they are basing the price on current opinion polls or something. They might say they will but I still don't believe americans will vote a black president in. kryogen which of obama's policies would negatively affect ireland?



    To name one, its his policy to stop sending money oevrseas, he wants to bring all the big corporations home to create more jobs for americans and stop outsourcing, this wil hurt the irish economy...hope i explained that right, im not the best with words, if you look into his policies yourself you will see how his will affect other countries, good and bad


  • #9
    Zebra3
    Registered Users Posts: 13,846 ✭✭✭✭Zebra3


    todolist wrote: »
    McCain is 11/4 to win the Presidency with Power and Ladbrokes.In a two horse race that's amazing odds.McCain has a great chance of winning.I believe he will close the gap on Obama and win the Presidency.Get on now!

    Considering his party have stolen the last two elections that's fantastic odds. :)


  • #10
    badbrian
    Registered Users Posts: 384 ✭✭badbrian


    Ace2007 wrote: »
    there are 2 canidates - how is it not as simple... its a 50/50 and ur getting 11/4 on ur money...

    While yes there are only 2 candidates it is not 50/50. 50/50 would suggest each has an equal chance and this is clearly not the case if Obama is well clear in the polls.
    I have backed Obama at odds against and while I could easily guarantee a profit by backing McCain I don't feel he has a realistic chance. But you pays your money and you take your chances.


  • #11
    Dodge
    Registered Users Posts: 10,145 ✭✭✭✭Dodge


    There are more than 2 candidates lads. If you're going to bet, do your research. Nobody rememember the significant votes Ralph Nader got in previous elections? There might only be two with realistic chances of winning but still ;)

    Oh and can we keep the political stuff out of this forum please? Stick to the gambling


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  • #12
    dsmythy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,508 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    The latest polls have Obama 100 or so electoral votes ahead. He has the lead over McCain in various battle ground states. Overall he is considered to have come out better from the second debate last night. Unless Obama drops an incredibly large clanger or McCain digs out some juicy dirt he will win the election. That's what you're betting 10/3 for. Obama making a big mistake or McCain scoring a big win in the next debate.

    The lead is too big to be "stolen" from him on polling day. He's 4-6 points ahead nationally. The Republicans have won the last two elections but in that time the U.S. has gone backwards. No current government is safe in these economic times and the Republicans were on watch in the lead up to today's crises. So the fact they've won the last two is pretty useless information as well.

    I wouldn't back McCain at that price at the present time unless he went ahead in Ohio and i'm pretty sure i wouldn't back Obama either presuming his odds are protectively tight.


  • #13
    todolist
    Registered Users Posts: 811 ✭✭✭todolist


    Can I just remind punters that the British Labour Party were 1/5 on favourites to beat the conservatives with only a week left in the 1992 British election campaign.Labour lead in all the opinion polles yet they lost.The same thing will happen to Obama.People are telling the pollsters that they'll vote for Obama but when they get into the voting booth they'll vote Republican.100/30 on John McCain is the bet of the year.I'm going to lump it on.


  • #14
    Dodge
    Registered Users Posts: 10,145 ✭✭✭✭Dodge


    Well, giving your previous record on these types of bets, I'm all in!


  • #15
    ArmaniJeanss
    Registered Users Posts: 13,285 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    todolist wrote: »
    Can I just remind punters that the British Labour Party were 1/5 on favourites to beat the conservatives with only a week left in the 1992 British election campaign.Labour lead in all the opinion poles yet they lost.The same thing will happen to Obama.People are telling the pollsters that they'll vote for Obama but when they get into the voting booth they'll vote Republican.100/30 on John McCain is the bet of the year.I'm going to lump it on.

    Wow, so we shouldn't back a favourite because one got beaten in 1992 :pac:

    That was a very unique event though - Kinnock and Labour threw it away with a triumphalist Sheffield Rally.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheffield_Rally
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8G8F-4du3rQ&feature=related


  • #16
    todolist
    Registered Users Posts: 811 ✭✭✭todolist


    ArmaniJeanss wrote: »
    Wow, so we shouldn't back a favourite because one got beaten in 1992 :pac:

    That was a very unique event though - Kinnock and Labour threw it away with a triumphalist Sheffield Rally.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheffield_Rally
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8G8F-4du3rQ&feature=related
    No.I'm saying the US pollsters have it wrong.1992 is just for illustration purposes.I'm just giving you my opinion.Make of it what you will.


  • #17
    Dodge
    Registered Users Posts: 10,145 ✭✭✭✭Dodge


    todolist wrote: »
    No.I'm saying the US pollsters have it wrong.1992 is just for illustration purposes.I'm just giving you my opinion.Make of it what you will.

    US pollsters got it right the last couple of times...


  • #18
    todolist
    Registered Users Posts: 811 ✭✭✭todolist


    Paddypower are now offering 4/1 on McCain.Which means in a two horse race Power reckons McCain is a beaten docket already.I think the Republicans have fought a poor campaign against Obama.He's only been in the Senate 24 months.He's all slogans and no substance.If Senator McCains campaign team can get it right he can still win this.


  • #19
    keen
    Closed Accounts Posts: 987 ✭✭✭keen


    Ace2007 wrote: »
    there are 2 canidates - how is it not as simple... its a 50/50 and ur getting 11/4 on ur money...

    That's a bit like saying "I'm going to race Usain Bolt tomorrow, there's a 50/50 chance I'll win cause there's only two runners."


  • #20
    Dodge
    Registered Users Posts: 10,145 ✭✭✭✭Dodge


    todolist wrote: »
    Paddypower are now offering 4/1 on McCain.Which means in a two horse race Power reckons McCain is a beaten docket already.I think the Republicans have fought a poor campaign against Obama.He's only been in the Senate 24 months.He's all slogans and no substance.If Senator McCains campaign team can get it right he can still win this.
    Are you only factoring this into your bet now?


  • #21
    ArmaniJeanss
    Registered Users Posts: 13,285 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    todolist wrote: »
    No.I'm saying the US pollsters have it wrong.
    todolist wrote: »
    Paddypower are now offering 4/1 on McCain.Which means in a two horse race Power reckons McCain is a beaten docket already.I think the Republicans have fought a poor campaign against Obama.

    Changing your mind a bit there, originally the bookies odds were based on supposedly inaccurate pollsters, now its because the Republicans haven't been campaigning properly.

    Good luck with your bet anyway, but it seems to me that you are falling into a trap of making a betting case for who you want to win.


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  • #22
    Bubs101
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,478 ✭✭✭Bubs101


    TBH, I think 4/1 is phenomenal value for McCain. The campaign still has just under a month to run so there is a decent chance that Obama could slip up somehow and even if he doesn't, there are more Republicans than Democrats in the U.S. and the electorate system tend to make polls alot less reliable. Personally, I think Obama will win but 4/1 is massive value. I also think that there is a decent chance that the Americans might not want to come off racist in a face to face survey but in a polling booth it could be a different matter.

    Also, it's worth keeping in mind that Obama was getting far more media coverage than McCain which gave him alot more momentum but since Palin was announced the media attention seems to have balanced slightly so I think with more T.V. time McCain could gather alot of momentum


  • #23
    Dodge
    Registered Users Posts: 10,145 ✭✭✭✭Dodge


    Bubs101 wrote: »
    Also, it's worth keeping in mind that Obama was getting far more media coverage than McCain which gave him alot more momentum but since Palin was announced the media attention seems to have balanced slightly so I think with more T.V. time McCain could gather alot of momentum

    Palin getting airtime has not helped McCain.


  • #24
    Bubs101
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,478 ✭✭✭Bubs101


    Dodge wrote: »
    Palin getting airtime has not helped McCain.

    It has. Although she's an absolute fool before the appointment McCain had virtually no time in the media outside of Murdoch run companies. I think Obama was on the cover of time 3 times since being nominated to McCain's 1 or none (can't remember which). McCain had no chance of winning with no media and considering how little impact Biden has had outside of the debates I'd say it's safe to assume that Palenti would have had virtually no impact as well (another average white guy). They needed media time, took a gamble and got it. They would have had no chance of winning any face time with the media without her unless they had another black guy up their sleeves and the old addage that bad publicity is better than no publicity rings true, especially in a system where if you don't like one party you're more or less forced to support the other


  • #25
    Dodge
    Registered Users Posts: 10,145 ✭✭✭✭Dodge


    But the novelty of Palin has wore off, and the republlican party is keeping her out of the mdeia spotlight now.

    Nice article in today's Irish Times about it (written by Boston Globe columnist)

    Anyway, I don't want this to get into a political debate. I don't think the best is value


  • #26
    Bubs101
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,478 ✭✭✭Bubs101


    Dodge wrote: »
    But the novelty of Palin has wore off, and the republlican party is keeping her out of the mdeia spotlight now.

    I'm aware the novelty is gone but I haven't seen McCain's exposure drop since the boost so it could keep him up there for the next month or so.


  • #27
    Dodge
    Registered Users Posts: 10,145 ✭✭✭✭Dodge


    Bubs101 wrote: »
    I'm aware the novelty is gone but I haven't seen McCain's exposure drop since the boost so it could keep him up there for the next month or so.

    But IMO that was always going to happen as both sides looked to make a final push, and media outlets looked for more and more coverage


  • #28
    patmac
    Registered Users Posts: 7,563 ✭✭✭patmac


    I'm also of the opinion that America will not vote in a black president McCain is now 5/1 with Betfair I've lumped(hoping to revisit this thread in November with smilies)


  • #29
    kenco
    Registered Users Posts: 1,080 ✭✭✭kenco


    4/1 is probably around right for McCain to win at this stage.

    PP are offering handicap betting at 5/6 for McCain vs approx 130 and this is virtually free money.

    Likelyhood is that Obama will win and therefore the odds on McCain are irrelevant but a good bet could be on the margin of victory which is likely to be much less than the 130 college votes suggested by PP


  • #30
    ArmaniJeanss
    Registered Users Posts: 13,285 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    patmac wrote: »
    I'm also of the opinion that America will not vote in a black president McCain is now 5/1 with Betfair I've lumped(hoping to revisit this thread in November with smilies)

    I'd agree that the stereotypical firebrand oration of MLK or Jesse Jackson could never get elected - Obama is a different sort of black though, close your eyes when he's speaking and you'll hear a traditional non-scary white politician.

    I think the Republicans don't hugely mind losing this election, they'll make a token effort but the party leaders aren't overly fond of McCain and I think will be happy to come back in 4 years with fresh faces ready to take on Obama after a difficult first term.

    5/1 is beginning to approach value though.


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  • #31
    Chucky the tree
    Closed Accounts Posts: 19,341 ✭✭✭✭Chucky the tree


    I presume the worse the economey gets the better it is for the Democrats? Or would the swing voters look at the candidate rather then the Party?


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