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Grand National 2012

  • 19-11-2011 5:05pm
    #1
    Nulty
    Registered Users Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭


    Killyglen ran really well on ground that wouldn't be his favourite and looked just outpaced after the last. He has an outstanding chance in the National on what should be run on good ground.

    Sunnyhillboy made his reappearance today in the Fixed Brush hurdle at Haydock. I was hoping for a little better but he'll be much better after that run and over fences. I can't be sure that Organisedconfusion will run being so young and will probably go for the 2013 edition. Sunnyhillboy was hampered in the Irish national last year and would have been a good deal closer with a trouble free passage. Again though, can't be sure he'll go for the race.

    Synchronised was very good in the fixed brush staying on. he'll carry some weight at Aintree if he goes and will only run if there is some cut which is pretty unlikely.


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Comments

  • #2
    RichieLawlor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,873 ✭✭✭RichieLawlor


    I've already had some small bets on Beshabar


  • #3
    Colonel Sanders
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    Still very early days and I've yet to really study the race but one I put on my short list last year after the Irish National was Western Charmer

    Dessie Hughes know how to train Aintree horses, trip should be no problem & jumping has never been an issue thusfar


  • #4
    Nulty
    Registered Users Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    Colonel Sanders wrote: »
    Still very early days and I've yet to really study the race but one I put on my short list last year after the Irish National was Western Charmer

    Dessie Hughes know how to train Aintree horses, trip should be no problem & jumping has never been an issue thusfar

    Absolutely agree. It's early if your not sure the horse is being aimed at the race. Killyglen is a certainty to line up if hes fit and well. Any idea what the plan is with Western Charmer?


  • #5
    Juwwi
    Registered Users Posts: 4,244 ✭✭✭Juwwi


    Anybody think the way Somersby jumped and travelled today that he could take his chance in the national one day.

    Probably wont this year.


  • #6
    hucklebuck
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,173 ✭✭✭hucklebuck


    I can't see it myself Robbie.

    If Frankie Figg is fit I reckon I will back him, decent national sort and now with Nicholls, he should be there or thereabouts


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  • #7
    shy-tall-knight
    Closed Accounts Posts: 349 ✭✭shy-tall-knight


    I was going to say that Poker de Sivola at 33's would interest me at the moment after the way he won the gold cup at Sandown. Brilliant ride from timmy murphy that day, was ready to throw my docket away after the first circuit! The national looks a logical choice this season but he's currently trading at 142 on betfair which would make me hesitant to back him at this time, big prices like that always put me off as to the chances of a horse turning up. What do people think or anyone have any idea if he is infact being aimed at the national?


  • #8
    newuser89
    Closed Accounts Posts: 713 ✭✭✭newuser89


    I taught poker de sivola was out for the season with injury


  • #9
    shy-tall-knight
    Closed Accounts Posts: 349 ✭✭shy-tall-knight


    newuser89 wrote: »
    I taught poker de sivola was out for the season with injury
    Maybe he is and that would explain the prices on the exchanges. Can't find confirmation of it anywhere though

    Just found out he is out for the season but murphy hopes to have him right for a tilt at the GN in 2013. Still only an 8 year old.


  • #10
    premierstone
    Registered Users Posts: 7,706 ✭✭✭premierstone


    robbie1977 wrote: »
    Anybody think the way Somersby jumped and travelled today that he could take his chance in the national one day.

    Probably wont this year.

    Henrietta is as mad as a box of frogs but even she wouldnt consider this, the horse achieved its career high rating running over 2m 1f, now I agree that he now needs a step up, but 3m max, no way would that horse get 4m 4f and would also be carrying a huge wait.

    Do agree with you that he jumped beautifully btw.


  • #11
    UrbanSea
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Dessie Hughes' are always interesting for this and I think that Western Charmer could be one to keep an eye on too Colonel


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  • #12
    UrbanSea
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Interesting he gets a five star rating here. I was looking up grand national ratings.

    Can anyone tell me what's around the minimum rating needed to get in for the national


  • #13
    Nulty
    Registered Users Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    West End Rocker did a very good job of making a claim for the National yesterday. I see no reason why he couldn't go on and win the big one in April. He looks just as capable on soft or good ground so the weather shouldn't affect him too much one way or the other. It'll be interesting to see what the handicapper does to him before considering a bet though.

    Appatently Alan King isn't a big fan of the National but that shouldn't jeapordise WER's chances of taking part. He was really unlucky last year and with a clear run looks a solid chance.


  • #14
    Huntey
    Closed Accounts Posts: 436 ✭✭Huntey


    Nulty wrote: »
    West End Rocker did a very good job of making a claim for the National yesterday. I see no reason why he couldn't go on and win the big one in April. He looks just as capable on soft or good ground so the weather shouldn't affect him too much one way or the other. It'll be interesting to see what the handicapper does to him before considering a bet though.

    Appatently Alan King isn't a big fan of the National but that shouldn't jeapordise WER's chances of taking part. He was really unlucky last year and with a clear run looks a solid chance.

    I think you have said it yourself Nulty, he will probably get hammered by the handicapper for yesterdays win.

    A spin over hurdles to keep the mark down seems the way to go these days if you are realistically aiming for the National.


  • #15
    00dyel
    Closed Accounts Posts: 225 ✭✭00dyel


    There are a few that i really like.

    Beshabar    : He jumped brilliantly in the Hennessy but may be given a hike in the weights for his 5th place finish. With about 1 mile to go he started to get outpaced but kept battling away and started to run on again at the end. From looking like he was going to get swallowed up 2 out he ran really well to end up 5th. He should stay as he has won over 4m and finished 2nd at Cheltenham over the same distance. Connections bought him with the Grand National in mind and he is the rightful favourite.

    Ballabriggs: Won it last year obviously and the amount of winners that come out and run well in it again is quite high. He jumped for fun that day and bar one mistake was foot perfect. He and Oscar Time could even still be improving and can both go close again.

    Oscar Time:As mentioned above, this horse i really think has improvement left in him. I am sure he is being aimed for the race and he should go close again.

    Any Currency: Currently 66/1 this horse looks ideal for a National. Always seems to get outpaced over what ever distance he runs. He was 3rd at the weekend at Sandown and was one of the first off the bridle, but after continuous scrubbing along the horse continued to respond and i think if it had been over 1/2 mile further he would have won.

    Admittedly none of the above were particularly original selections but i think these 4 have a great chance.


  • #16
    Nulty
    Registered Users Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    UrbanSea wrote: »
    Interesting he gets a five star rating here. I was looking up grand national ratings.

    Can anyone tell me what's around the minimum rating needed to get in for the national

    I think its around the 138 mark. Just check last years race, that should tell you.


  • #17
    Nulty
    Registered Users Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    That was a damn good guess if I do say so myself. Although I have been looking at the race recently.

    Skippers Brig and Character Building ran off 138 (10-2) in the 2011 edition.


  • #18
    premierstone
    Registered Users Posts: 7,706 ✭✭✭premierstone


    Nulty wrote: »
    West End Rocker did a very good job of making a claim for the National yesterday. I see no reason why he couldn't go on and win the big one in April. He looks just as capable on soft or good ground so the weather shouldn't affect him too much one way or the other. It'll be interesting to see what the handicapper does to him before considering a bet though.

    Appatently Alan King isn't a big fan of the National but that shouldn't jeapordise WER's chances of taking part. He was really unlucky last year and with a clear run looks a solid chance.

    I slightly disagree Nulty I think the horse is ground dependent, yes he has won on good ground but he's two best performances by some way have come on heavy ground, Saturday and in Warwick last January, with that in mind and the inevitable hike in hes handicap mark the 20/1 being quoted looks skimpy to me.


  • #19
    UrbanSea
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Thanks Nulty


  • #20
    Nulty
    Registered Users Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    I'm not considering backing WER. I'm just keeping the thread going. His best performances so far have come on soft ground but over the National trip he could match and surpass his best. His best performances up until now would not be good enough to win the national anyway. Most of the entries in the national need career bests to win and WER is no different.

    Interestingly, the two recent winners of both the Becher and the National, Amberleigh House and Silver Birch, didn't do the double in the same year. Both won the National 2 years after winning the Becher.


  • #21
    Harry Angstrom
    Registered Users Posts: 19,351 ✭✭✭✭Harry Angstrom


    I think Junior could be interesting. There aren't many horses who can win at Royal Ascot and the Cheltenham Festival. I have a feeling that the Pipe team might be laying him out for the race although I don't think I'd even contemplate having an ante-post bet until the weights come out in February.

    West End Rocker was impressive on Saturday but I'm wondering if he'll be as effective on quicker ground next April.


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  • #22
    kksaints
    Registered Users Posts: 4,684 ✭✭✭kksaints


    Deep Purple was another horse that was mentioned with the national as a target after winning on Saturday. He probably wont stay but is a classy horse at his best.


  • #23
    Colonel Sanders
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    Colonel Sanders wrote: »
    Still very early days and I've yet to really study the race but one I put on my short list last year after the Irish National was Western Charmer

    Dessie Hughes know how to train Aintree horses, trip should be no problem & jumping has never been an issue thusfar

    Western Charmer goes over hurdles tomorrow.

    Typical National prep by the looks of it


  • #24
    Nulty
    Registered Users Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    Colonel Sanders wrote: »
    Western Charmer goes over hurdles tomorrow.

    Typical National prep by the looks of it

    Have you ever seen a horse prepared for the Irish Grand National with a similar preparation? Being trained by Dessie makes me think WC is going to Aintree but just wondering...I've taken some 40s on Western Charmer just now.

    On a similar thread, Killyglens 40/1 is gone now. Best price is 33/1.


  • #25
    Nulty
    Registered Users Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    West End Rocker has been put up 12lbs for his Becher win. He's now 149. That's not a massive weight. He'd be carrying 10-13 on last years running. I think thats a fair weight. Still not an antepost bet though now his price is shorter and weight bigger.

    Western Charmer is entered in the Paddy Power chase at Leopardstown over christmas.


  • #26
    Colonel Sanders
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    Nulty wrote: »
    Western Charmer is entered in the Paddy Power chase at Leopardstown over christmas.
    What's his new mark? Think he was put up to 144 after his Irish National run but not sure if he was unchanged or not after Punchestown


  • #27
    UrbanSea
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    He's rated 143


  • #28
    Nulty
    Registered Users Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    Looks like Western Charmer is going to stick to hurdles until "bigger targets in the spring". Wouldn't be taking a price on him in the Paddy Power. Being rated 143 in Ireland might get him the weight of a 146 horse, add to that a win in the PP and he doesn't look as attractive. That was a very encouraging run behind Blazing Tempo today though over 2m2f. He's in the Welsh National too but thats very unlikely.


  • #29
    Nulty
    Registered Users Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    Synchronised is into 10s with Ladbrokes and 25s with Paddy Power. No way I'd back the horse at 33/1. He'll be put up around 15lbs for that win and would likely run off top weight in at Aintree. Laughable to think he'll run in the National now.


  • #30
    gscully
    Registered Users Posts: 1,641 ✭✭✭gscully


    I'll be keeping an eye on the weight given to State Of Play. Finished fifth two years ago and was given less weight last year. He jumps like a stag and stays the course. He was miles back jumping the last, yet rocketed up to third at 33/1. If his weight is anything like last year, lump on each-way. I'm not sure he runs beforehand but it won't matter as he goes well fresh.


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  • #31
    Colonel Sanders
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    gscully wrote: »
    I'll be keeping an eye on the weight given to State Of Play. Finished fifth two years ago and was given less weight last year. He jumps like a stag and stays the course. He was miles back jumping the last, yet rocketed up to third at 33/1. If his weight is anything like last year, lump on each-way. I'm not sure he runs beforehand but it won't matter as he goes well fresh.

    While a huge fan of the horse (had half decent each way bets in 09 & 10) I can't help think his chance has gone with his advancing years tbh


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