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Irelands most likely Olympic 2012 Medals

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    #1112
    swim2
    Registered Users Posts: 236 ✭✭swim2


    Chris Bryan has unfortunately lost out on a spot at the Olympics, 10k Open Water Swim. FINA have made their decision

    http://www.swimmingworldmagazine.com/lane9/news/OpenWater/30903.asp?q=Benjamin-Schulte-Fills-Out-Olympic-10K-Final

    Benjamin Schulte Fills Out Olympic 10K Final -- June 22, 2012

    LONDON, England. June 22. FINA made its ruling on the Olympic 10K marathon swimming finalists. Benjamin Schulte of Guam accepted the invitation to compete in the Olympic Marathon Swimming 10km and fills out the 25-man roster.

    Coached by Dennis Cotterell and Brian King on Gold Coast of Australia, 16-year-old Schulte will not only be the youngest swimmer in the Olympic final by more than a few years, but he will also be the first swimmer from Guam to participate in the Olympic marathon swimming event.


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    #1113
    Dodge
    Registered Users Posts: 10,154 ✭✭✭✭Dodge


    Thanks for that. Disappointing (but expected)


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    #1114
    swim2
    Registered Users Posts: 236 ✭✭swim2


    An interesting article on the politics of the decision by FINA

    http://dailynews.openwaterswimming.com/2012/06/background-of-ireland-vs-guam-decision.html


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    #1115
    Cosmo Kramer
    Registered Users Posts: 3,990 ✭✭✭Cosmo Kramer


    We're not getting to much good fortune in terms of the borderline qualifiers. Ward and Bryan get put out in favour of entrants with no pedigree while Katie Taylor gets her weight division loaded with almost every big name that failed to qualify.


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    #1116
    Truman Burbank
    Registered Users Posts: 543 ✭✭✭Truman Burbank


    swim2 wrote: »
    An interesting article on the politics of the decision by FINA

    http://dailynews.openwaterswimming.com/2012/06/background-of-ireland-vs-guam-decision.html

    Also hard on Radford, who presumably had no option but to sign up to New Zealand's selection policy, and seemingly had a bad day. I have no idea if this scenario of Section D v Section F has occurred prior, but this small lack of clarity (if it is even that) shows that governing bodies have to think of every eventuality to avoid ambiguity, founded/unfounded claims of bias and real heartache. (Note: I would have gone for Section F, but I could just as easily go for Section D and a continental athlete regardless). Presumably so, if one of the 25 were to get injured, prior to the start line, it is Section D again........


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    #1117
    Dodge
    Registered Users Posts: 10,154 ✭✭✭✭Dodge


    No additional A times yet but Jessie Barr and Brian Gregan doing themselves the world of good by running well inside the B standard twice and reaching the final of the 400m hurdles and 400m flat respectively

    Not sure the OCI can justify their non selection (Gregan has a shot at a medal too)


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    #1118
    FitzjamesHorse
    Registered Users Posts: 59 ✭✭FitzjamesHorse


    Even allowing for the fact that many top athletes are not competing in the Championships, I think reaching the finals should be enough to ensure that Jessie Barr and Brian Gregan are on the plane to London.
    If the 4x400 Relay team make it..then Id expect Barr to get the nod as as individual anyway.
    Gregan should be on plane also as as he ran his semi final in bad conditions.
    Hard luck on Thomas Barr.
    Big chance for Steven Colvert tomorrow.
    Amy Foster diasappointed in 100m and needs a big race tomorrow.


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    #1119
    KevIRL
    Registered Users Posts: 39,498 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    Womens 4 x 400m team confirmed as qualified, just said now on the TV


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    #1120
    Dan man
    Registered Users Posts: 3,076 Mod ✭✭✭✭Dan man


    With the qualification of the women's 4x400m relay team, Ireland's Olympic team has increased to 65 members. There is still an outside chance that this total can increase by a couple more but will likely depend on the inclusion of athletes with the B-standard.


    Jason Smyth (100m):
    • Season's best 10.22secs
    • Olympic A-standard is 10.18secs
    • Didn't perform well at the European Championships, going out in the semi-finals with a time of 10.52secs.
    Steven Colvert (200m):
    • Season's best of 20.57secs
    • Olympic A-tandard is 20.55secs
    • He was disqualified from his heat in the 200m at the Euros but his encouraging progress of late is a huge positive. He needs the A-standard as Paul Hession already has the qualifying time. He'll probably have at least one more crack at it and I think he'll make it, conditions permitting.
    Brian Gregan (400m):
    • Season's best of 45.63secs
    • Olympic A-standard is 45.30secs
    • He set a new P.B. at the Euro Championships en route to finishing in 6th place and considering he only opened up his season a couple of weeks ago and with so few races under his belt, he should be sent to London.
    Mark English (800m):
    • Season's best of 1:45.77mins
    • Olympic A-standard is 1:45.60mins
    • He smashed his own P.B. and the Irish junior record a few weeks ago and he's travelling to the World Juniors with a huge chance of taking home a medal.
    Ciara Mageean (1,500m):
    • Season's best of 4:13.10mins
    • Olympic A-standard is 4:06.00mins
    • She's not in good form this season and is only second fastest in the Irish rankings over the distance in 2012. I don't think she'll make the team for London but she has a bright future ahead of her.
    Jessie Barr (400m Hurdles):
    • Season's best of 55.93secs
    • Olympic A standard is 55.50secs
    • She bettered her P.B. in the Euro Champs and made the final of that competition. Given her steady progress this season it would be nice if she was given the opportunity to represent Ireland at the Olympics.

    As things stand, none of those athletes listed above will be on the team for London but if they do decide to opt for some B-standard athletes in good form then Brian Gregan, Jessie Barr and Mark English would be the leading candidates. I'm hoping all will be sent but I wouldn't be too optimistic about that.
    I can't see any others athletes without either A or B standards posting a qualifying standard in the final week before the qualification window closes (July 8th).

    All of the other qualifiers for the other sports are effectively finalised now apart from swimming as FINA are in still in the process of distributing their invitation places to swimmers with the Olympic standard time (O.S.T.).
    However, I don't think any Irish swimmers will benefit from this process and the current policy by the OCI is that only swimmers who achieved the Olympic Qualifying Time (O.Q.T.) will be sent to London.

    So all of this means that the prediction of 65-70 athletes is spot on, at the moment it's 65 which is a very respectable total whatever happens and quite good considering most will be competing in individual events (relay and eventing aside).


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    #1121
    Dodge
    Registered Users Posts: 10,154 ✭✭✭✭Dodge


    I think Jessie Barr has a great shout too Dan. New PB, 3/4 times under Olympic B. European final. Could be 7th 400 relay runner too


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    #1122
    Dan man
    Registered Users Posts: 3,076 Mod ✭✭✭✭Dan man


    Dodge wrote: »
    I think Jessie Barr has a great shout too Dan. New PB, 3/4 times under Olympic B. European final. Could be 7th 400 relay runner too

    Thanks Dodge, can't believe I left her out of my list...and after all the raving I've been doing about her to anyone who'll listen to me!! :o. I think she's a super athlete, would love to see her in London.


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    #1123
    Dodge
    Registered Users Posts: 10,154 ✭✭✭✭Dodge


    I don't think English will go BTW. I think he may medal at the world juniors but mightn't be able to peak again for London (still only a kid). Fabulous prospect for Rio.


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    #1124
    Dan man
    Registered Users Posts: 3,076 Mod ✭✭✭✭Dan man


    Dodge wrote: »
    I don't think English will go BTW. I think he may medal at the world juniors but mightn't be able to peak again for London (still only a kid). Fabulous prospect for Rio.


    I don't think so either and the World Juniors was always the priority for him. Huge talent alright, he's got bags of talent.


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    #1125
    FitzjamesHorse
    Registered Users Posts: 59 ✭✭FitzjamesHorse


    Congrats to the Relay team.
    This week there will presumably be athletics events accross Europe where middle distance runners might get a Fast (paced) race. Sprinters will find life harder.
    Gregan s performance....European finalist hampered by injury and poor conditions will I think get the nod.
    Jessie Barr also. They should probably be confirmed without looking for more races..allowing them to concentrate on London.
    Ciara Mageean has had her training interupted by family bereavement but on a personal level Id like to see her go. But I dont think she will be selected.
    As Jason Smyth wil be defending his Paralympic title, it would be an advantage to send him to get a "feel" of the track.
    Mark English could be provisionally selected with the proviso that a good performance in the Juniors which are actually outside Olympic qualification date.....will get him to London.


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    #1126
    The_Kew_Tour
    Registered Users Posts: 34,044 ✭✭✭✭The_Kew_Tour


    So with about 4 weeks to go till it all begins, as things stand how many medals do you think Ireland will or could win?

    Who do you fancy to perform well and are their any outsiders we should look out for?

    Great reading by the way fair play to all.


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    #1127
    Dan man
    Registered Users Posts: 3,076 Mod ✭✭✭✭Dan man


    London Olympic news thread now open, join in everybody.

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056689584


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    #1128
    Dan man
    Registered Users Posts: 3,076 Mod ✭✭✭✭Dan man


    The_Kew_Tour wrote: »
    So with about 4 weeks to go till it all begins, as things stand how many medals do you think Ireland will or could win?

    Who do you fancy to perform well and are their any outsiders we should look out for?

    Great reading by the way fair play to all.


    I'll answer this question in more depth in a few days time but what I will say is that it seems reasonable for Irish fans to expect 3 medals in London with the possibility of adding one or two more if things go well.

    I don't think even the most pessimistic onlooker would say it is beyond our boxers to bring home at least 2 medals.

    We have 2 very strong chances in sailing too particularly with Star fleet sailors Peter O'Leary and David Burrows and Annalise Murphy in the Laer Radial class.
    There is a really strong chance that one of those will rise up onto the podium in London.

    Elsewhere we have a number of outside chances of success...Aileen Morrison (triathlon), Rob Heffernan (50km walk), Andrzej Jezierski (Canoe Sprint) and individual showjumping immediately spring to mind. All of those are capable of getting onto the podium if they hit top form. There are also a few others with a minor chance of success but top 8 would be a more likely outcome (Martyn Irvine in Omnium cycling, the eventing team, Kieran Behan in gymnastics and Grainne Murphy in 800m freestyle swimming would be a few I would rank as such).

    Anyway there's a general rule of thumb that for every 3 decent medal chances you can expect 1 medal to come from those. This of course can't always be accurate but I would say we have between 8-10 very decent medal chances and I think you could say with a good deal of confidence that we should win 3 medals anyway. Hopefully we get a gold, we all know we have one favourite for gold but you can't hang medals around anyone's neck beforehand. Also amongst our medal chances there is also the possibility that some of those could claim gold. There truly is much to be optimistic about this time round than when you compare how the mood was when we went into the last 3 Olympics.


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    #1129
    Cosmo Kramer
    Registered Users Posts: 3,990 ✭✭✭Cosmo Kramer


    That's a fair enough summation of things as they stand. I would hope we can improve on Beijing so that would mean three medals including a gold or four or more medals of any colour.

    As a random shot in the dark three or so weeks out I'm going to predict four Irish medals:

    Gold for Katie Taylor
    Silver for O'Leary/Burrows
    Bronze for Paddy Barnes
    Bronze for JJ Nevin

    I'll have to revisit this post in just over a month to see how my prediction turns out! I'd be very happy with that outcome though.


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    #1130
    Dan man
    Registered Users Posts: 3,076 Mod ✭✭✭✭Dan man


    Cosmo Kramer wrote: »
    That's a fair enough summation of things as they stand. I would hope we can improve on Beijing so that would mean three medals including a gold or four or more medals of any colour.

    As a random shot in the dark three or so weeks out I'm going to predict four Irish medals:

    Gold for Katie Taylor
    Silver for O'Leary/Burrows
    Bronze for Paddy Barnes
    Bronze for JJ Nevin

    I'll have to revisit this post in just over a month to see how my prediction turns out! I'd be very happy with that outcome though.

    This seems like a realistic target and definitely achievable. This would show good progress from Beijing and sets up a good base for Rio 2016 where I think we are going to have an exceptional Games by Irish standards. So many of our emerging talents (World Junior medalists) will hopefully be coming into their own by then.


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    #1131
    Pisco Sour
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,029 ✭✭✭Pisco Sour


    FitzjamesHorse wrote: »
    Ciara Mageean has had her training interupted by family bereavement but on a personal level Id like to see her go. But I dont think she will be selected.

    I knew something had to be up. Her performances of late just haven't really made sense given how immense she has been the last few years.

    Very sorry to hear about the bereavement.


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    #1132
    The_Kew_Tour
    Registered Users Posts: 34,044 ✭✭✭✭The_Kew_Tour


    Dan man wrote: »
    I'll answer this question in more depth in a few days time but what I will say is that it seems reasonable for Irish fans to expect 3 medals in London with the possibility of adding one or two more if things go well.

    I don't think even the most pessimistic onlooker would say it is beyond our boxers to bring home at least 2 medals.

    We have 2 very strong chances in sailing too particularly with Star fleet sailors Peter O'Leary and David Burrows and Annalise Murphy in the Laer Radial class.
    There is a really strong chance that one of those will rise up onto the podium in London.

    Elsewhere we have a number of outside chances of success...Aileen Morrison (triathlon), Rob Heffernan (50km walk), Andrzej Jezierski (Canoe Sprint) and individual showjumping immediately spring to mind. All of those are capable of getting onto the podium if they hit top form. There are also a few others with a minor chance of success but top 8 would be a more likely outcome (Martyn Irvine in Omnium cycling, the eventing team, Kieran Behan in gymnastics and Grainne Murphy in 800m freestyle swimming would be a few I would rank as such).

    Anyway there's a general rule of thumb that for every 3 decent medal chances you can expect 1 medal to come from those. This of course can't always be accurate but I would say we have between 8-10 very decent medal chances and I think you could say with a good deal of confidence that we should win 3 medals anyway. Hopefully we get a gold, we all know we have one favourite for gold but you can't hang medals around anyone's neck beforehand. Also amongst our medal chances there is also the possibility that some of those could claim gold. There truly is much to be optimistic about this time round than when you compare how the mood was when we went into the last 3 Olympics.


    Thanks for Reply Dan.:)


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    #1133
    Dodge
    Registered Users Posts: 10,154 ✭✭✭✭Dodge


    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=79141684

    I posted my top 25 ‘likely’ hopes about a month ago.

    As I explained, some of the rankings incorporate the vagaries of the sports into them. While someone like Martyn Irvine (cycling – omnium) may be a far better bet for a top ten that Eoin Rheinisch (canoe – K1 slalom). Roche and Martin are world class cyclists. They may medal, the may finish outside top 100. That’s the road race for you. Andrzej Jezierski in canoe sprinting is another one. With so little room for error, he could sneak into medals with one great race.

    I believe the top 10 there have realistic hopes of a medal. As ever 3 would be a successful games for Ireland. Looking forward to the Equestrian team selection. The recent addition of 2 riders gives the 3 day eventing teama better chance (although still slim)


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    #1134
    The_Kew_Tour
    Registered Users Posts: 34,044 ✭✭✭✭The_Kew_Tour


    Dodge wrote: »
    Eoin Rheinisch (canoe – K1 slalom).

    how has he fared coming up to the games?


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    #1135
    K_1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 326 ✭✭K_1


    The_Kew_Tour wrote: »
    how has he fared coming up to the games?

    He did quite well in the last qualification event, but wasn't in the world cup events lately afaik, probably due to concentrating on the olympic course.


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    #1136
    Dodge
    Registered Users Posts: 10,154 ✭✭✭✭Dodge


    Dennis Lynch and Billy Twomey selected to represent Ireland in show jumping. Well deserved

    http://www.rte.ie/sport/olympics/equestrian/2012/0703/327700-hsi-nominates-twomey-and-lynch-for-olympics/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter


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    #1137
    Dan man
    Registered Users Posts: 3,076 Mod ✭✭✭✭Dan man


    Dodge wrote: »
    Dennis Lynch and Billy Twomey selected to represent Ireland in show jumping. Well deserved

    http://www.rte.ie/sport/olympics/equestrian/2012/0703/327700-hsi-nominates-twomey-and-lynch-for-olympics/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter


    Definitely the right choices and the best horses available to them have been selected too. You never know, you wouldn't put them down for a medal given the unpredictable nature of the sport but they certainly go to London with the possibility of a podium finish.


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    #1138
    feargale
    Registered Users Posts: 8,636 ✭✭✭feargale


    So, is 65 the final figure?


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    #1139
    Dan man
    Registered Users Posts: 3,076 Mod ✭✭✭✭Dan man


    feargale wrote: »
    So, is 65 the final figure?

    Not yet, we are now sure of 65 and as things stand unless the OCI and AAI decide to send athletes with a B-standard or if any get the A-standard by the end of this week then it will be the final figure.


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    #1140
    Dan man
    Registered Users Posts: 3,076 Mod ✭✭✭✭Dan man


    The_Kew_Tour wrote: »
    how has he fared coming up to the games?

    At a recent World Cup event in Spain at the end of June he placed 35th and was well off the pace, also finishing well behind Ireland's other paddler in his event, Ciaran Hurteau. You never know though with canoe slalom, he could take to the course in London and put in a really powerful performance. It's unlikely we'll see a repeat of his 4th place finish in Beijing but that in itself was a major surprise so who knows.


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    #1141
    Dan man
    Registered Users Posts: 3,076 Mod ✭✭✭✭Dan man


    The Irish relay team has been named on the AAI website:
    1. Joanne Cuddihy
    2. Marian Heffernan
    3. Claire Bergin
    4. Michelle Carey
    5. Jessie Barr
    6. Catriona Cuddihy
    http://www.athleticsireland.ie/content/?p=26350?p=Ireland%E2%80%99s+Women+4%C3%97400m+Relay+Team+make+Olympic+Qualification

    As of now the only members of the Irish Olympic team that have not been named are the 5 Irish eventing team members. Also I think Matt Brammeier is still hoping to get his non-selection in the Olympic road race (cycling) overturned.


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