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Possibility of more cold weather from the 9th of March

245

Comments

  • #32
    MiNdGaM3
    Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    Deleted User wrote: »
    yes nuisance sleety snow in a few areas that didn't amount to much,most people in urban areas had bits of sleety rain and would have seen it snow only on the distant hills.
    It would of course been a big deal given it was probably a very good snow lol compared to the previous 6 years of snow drought.

    Built the snowman in Cashel, which I'd imagine is only around 50m asl. Many places had snow falling and accumalating that day, which requires more than cold rain with some sleet mixed in or hail.
    Not saying it was a massive snow event, just showing that we don't need sub -9C uppers to get snow from a polar maritime flows in March.


  • #33
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,626 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Pangea wrote: »
    This is lovely weather we are having, nice and dry ,warm by day , cold at night.
    Dont really care if snow comes back or not at this stage its getting late so cant see anything major happening.
    Just dreading the mild and wet days coming back.

    :eek::eek::eek: you are dead to me:pac:


  • #34
    Barbara Brief Butterfly
    Posts: 0 ✭ Barbara Brief Butterfly


    MiNdGaM3 wrote: »
    Built the snowman in Cashel, which I'd imagine is only around 50m asl. Many places had snow falling and accumalating that day, which requires more than cold rain with some sleet mixed in or hail.
    Not saying it was a massive snow event, just showing that we don't need sub -9C uppers to get snow from a polar maritime flows in March.
    Cashel is well inland and near a high ground microclimate.Any snow would have been gone in 24hrs or less and certainly wouldn't have settled in any of the large urban centres such as cork,Dublin or limerick.
    So it was a fluke.
    Flukes do happen.

    To take march 3rd 2008,your example,Shannon had a snow shower in darkness at 6 am.
    Precipitation before that was rain and at 8am it was rain source
    Min temp was 1c overnight,it got up to a max of 6c that day.

    Dublin actually reached a max of 7c that day and reported rain all day in it's showers.
    So really snow in such set ups is very fluke but probably was exciting at the time as it was so rare in the last 7 years.

    Knock airport did have light snow showers all day but it's circa 700ft asl and well inland.

    Cork airport which is also up on high ground circa 600ft or so,had one snow shower that day but mostly rain showers,all rain in the city.

    Hence,I don't get excited by polar maratimes unless your 850's are sub -8c and lower.
    -10 at least to be sure.


  • #35
    TheInquisitor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,530 ✭✭✭TheInquisitor


    Did someone say MASSIVE UPGRADE on GFS compared to last run??

    didsomeonesaymassiveupg.png

    This goes to this now from...

    didsomeonesaymassiveupg.png

    And look what it was on the last run!! HUGE UPGRADE

    lolxo.png


  • #36
    MiNdGaM3
    Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Cashel is well inland and near a high ground microclimate.Any snow would have been gone in 24hrs or less and certainly wouldn't have settled in any of the large urban centres such as cork,Dublin or limerick.
    So it was a fluke.
    Flukes do happen.

    To take march 3rd 2008,your example,Shannon had a snow shower in darkness at 6 am.
    Precipitation before that was rain and at 8am it was rain source
    Min temp was 1c overnight,it got up to a max of 6c that day.

    Dublin actually reached a max of 7c that day and reported rain all day in it's showers.
    So really snow in such set ups is very fluke but probably was exciting at the time as it was so rare in the last 7 years.

    Knock airport did have light snow showers all day but it's circa 700ft asl and well inland.

    Cork airport which is also up on high ground circa 600ft or so,had one snow shower that day but mostly rain showers,all rain in the city.

    Hence,I don't get excited by polar maratimes unless your 850's are sub -8c and lower.
    -10 at least to be sure.

    I guess if we're gonna drag this out...
    I didn't mention snow lasting more than 24 hours, just showers with some accumalations, as per what occurred and may well occur under similar conditions.
    Ireland consists of much more than just large urban centers, so they're in the minority. Not to say that they didn't get snow on the day.
    Here's a clip from Dublin, from that day, showing a dusting of snow.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ToE-CqMkvGo

    There are various other clips from the day showing snow from a broad swath of the country.
    As for Cashel having a micro climate, the foot of the Galtee Mountains is 10km away and to the south west, not much use under a northwesterly flow.

    A quick look at the thread for that day show how widespread the snow was
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055245965&page=13

    Anywho, this is getting a bit silly! Agree to disagree maybe?


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  • #37
    TheInquisitor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,530 ✭✭✭TheInquisitor


    Ironically Barbara Brief Butterfly was commenting in that thread and on page 16 reports snow although not lasting long


  • #38
    Barbara Brief Butterfly
    Posts: 0 ✭ Barbara Brief Butterfly


    TheInquisitor wrote: »
    Ironically Barbara Brief Butterfly was commenting in that thread and on page 16 reports snow although not lasting long
    I'm sure I was and I'm sure I did.
    As I said after a 7 year famine,anything at all back then looked like a blizzard to most. But my point remains,that the weather logs for Dublin,cork and shannon report mostly rain on the day with the exception of well inland and higher ground.
    So I remain unconvinced of the potency of polar maratime air,it's almost useless bar the odd flukey heavy shower mainly in the overnight or early morning.. especially in favoured microclimates.

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=55286737&postcount=216

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=55287011&postcount=225

    I'm in a micro climate[if its cold air sourced from the north but blowing in from the west] by the way close to high ground and often see some snow from showers in a polar maratime as they don't melt adjacent to the hills near by.
    That is ironic I agree in the context of this thread.
    But it doesn't change things or the fact that we had little to be excited about back in 2008.


  • #39
    patneve2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    I find that 850 hPa temperatures can be quite misleading at times. Much better to look at 500 hPa temps...for example if u get a -35 to -40 @ 500 hPa over Ireland in March that's heavy wintry showers for all. On the 3rd March 2008 the -35 isotherm only covered the Northern part of the country. (and many places did still see some snow anyways).


  • #40
    MiNdGaM3
    Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    patneve2 wrote: »
    I find that 850 hPa temperatures can be quite misleading at times. Much better to look at 500 hPa temps...for example if u get a -35 to -40 @ 500 hPa over Ireland in March that's heavy wintry showers for all. On the 3rd March 2008 the -35 isotherm only covered the Northern part of the country. (and many places did still see some snow anyways).

    I wouldn't say it's much better to look at the 500hPa temps, but certainly does help!
    Luckily enough, towards the end of the week we get a good combination of both with -6C to -8C 850hPa temps and -35C to -40C 500s. Hopefully with that depth of cold and the sun now warming the suface that bit more, we should manage to spark off some heavy showers.
    Of course it may very well go the way of the ECM in which case, sleet in the north looks like the best we could hope for...


  • #41
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    GFS quite solid for snow potential later next week. But it's still uncertain with the other models showing different outcomes. Chances are improving though of a return to Winter weather later next week. Be interesting to see how this developes tomorrow.


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  • #42
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,881 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    ECM now coming on board aswell.
    Cold next weekend with snowfall a distinct possibility.
    Too late to light my fire but interesting all the same.

    Met Eireann as per usual on a different tack!
    He didn't even mention it turning colder


  • #43
    200motels
    Registered Users Posts: 2,602 ✭✭✭200motels


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    ECM now coming on board aswell.
    Cold next weekend with snowfall a distinct possibility.
    Too late to light my fire but interesting all the same.

    Met Eireann as per usual on a different tack!
    He didn't even mention it turning colder
    Nothing new there with M E.


  • #44
    Harps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Maybe because it keeps getting pushed out? Two days ago it was going to be cold on the 9th, now its just a cool westerly. The same will probably happen again so why should they mention it until its within a reliable timeframe?


  • #45
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,881 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Harps wrote: »
    Maybe because it keeps getting pushed out? Two days ago it was going to be cold on the 9th, now its just a cool westerly. The same will probably happen again so why should they mention it until its within a reliable timeframe?

    The forecaster went up to next wkd.
    All the signs are that it will either be cold or very cold with model consensus on this.
    All I ask is that they give the most updated info to the public.
    He suggests it will be very unsettled next wkd whereas the charts are showing very cold with wintry showers


  • #46
    Elmer Blooker
    Registered Users Posts: 6,028 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    ECM now coming on board aswell.
    Cold next weekend with snowfall a distinct possibility.
    Too late to light my fire but interesting all the same.

    Met Eireann as per usual on a different tack!
    He didn't even mention it turning colder
    Interesting to note, Gerry Murphy said nothing about cold weather after the 6 o clock news but said turning "much colder" on the 9 o clock news.


  • #47
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    The forecaster went up to next wkd.
    All the signs are that it will either be cold or very cold with model consensus on this.
    All I ask is that they give the most updated info to the public.
    He suggests it will be very unsettled next wkd whereas the charts are showing very cold with wintry showers


    Want to bet on this cold spell happening? Cool and wet, no snow, 95% guaranteed.


  • #48
    200motels
    Registered Users Posts: 2,602 ✭✭✭200motels


    thetonynator wrote: »
    Want to bet on this cold spell happening? Cool and wet, no snow, 95% guaranteed.
    That roughly equates to 25/1 good odds that it will snow.


  • #49
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Rubbish


  • #50
    Swampy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,104 ✭✭✭Swampy


    Ok, so what's the beef in laymans terms? I'm planning a weekend away this weekend to Sligo. Should I cancel or will I be grand weatherwise?

    Thanks.


    Great forum by the way.


  • #51
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    For what it's worth here's the GFS gramet for Finner for Saturday - Monday, showing some sleet/snow to low levels Saturday night into Sunday.

    http://www.ogimet.com/display_gramet.php?lang=en&wmo=03978&name1=&lat1=&lon1=&alt1=&name2=&lat2=&lon2=&alt2=&hini=120&tref=1299489460&hfin=168&hl=3000&fl=100&submit=submit


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  • #52
    Big Daddy Cool
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,774 ✭✭✭Big Daddy Cool


    Swampy wrote: »
    Ok, so what's the beef in laymans terms? I'm planning a weekend away this weekend to Sligo. Should I cancel or will I be grand weatherwise?

    Thanks.


    Great forum by the way.

    Go to schligo and enjoy yourself


  • #53
    Big Daddy Cool
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,774 ✭✭✭Big Daddy Cool


    looking at the glorious weather outside today, i must say its hard to believe anybody would want cold weather to return, plus cheltenham starts next week and nobody wants crappy weather for that


  • #54
    Pangea
    Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Big Daddy Cool wrote: »
    looking at the glorious weather outside today, i must say its hard to believe anybody would want cold weather to return, plus cheltenham starts next week and nobody wants crappy weather for that
    Its not as if people that want snow have any influence on the good weather going away lol
    Some comments by people on here almost try and make people feel guilty for liking cold weather and when it returns.:D


  • #55
    Big Daddy Cool
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,774 ✭✭✭Big Daddy Cool


    Pangea wrote: »
    Its not as if people that want snow have any influence on the good weather going away lol
    Some comments by people on here almost try and make people feel guilty for liking cold weather and when it returns.:D

    ah i like the snow and ice as much as the next lad, especially during november and december but when we get to these months and how nice the weather is at the minute, snow and ice is the last thing i want.


  • #56
    Swampy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,104 ✭✭✭Swampy


    Just worried about my heavy rear wheel drive car on a long trip if its going to be snowy/icy. I suppose we'll know better closer to the weekend.


  • #57
    Pangea
    Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Big Daddy Cool wrote: »
    ah i like the snow and ice as much as the next lad, especially during november and december but when we get to these months and how nice the weather is at the minute, snow and ice is the last thing i want.
    I doubt it will be much of an inconvience at this stage of the year, MT already said it would be brief. Id still take it over rainy damp weather.


  • #58
    Min
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭Min


    Pangea wrote: »
    Its not as if people that want snow have any influence on the good weather going away lol
    Some comments by people on here almost try and make people feel guilty for liking cold weather and when it returns.:D

    I do my best at times :D :pac:


  • #59
    Pangea
    Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    http://www.donegaldaily.com/2011/03/07/spring-set-to-be-brushed-aside-with-severe-snow-storm/ lol


  • #60
    John Mason
    Hosted Moderators Posts: 10,661 ✭✭✭✭John Mason


    ah here now, i want get started on planting the veggies, this cold weather is no good for that sort of thing. :mad:


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  • #61
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    It's pretty safe to say there will not be snow on Wednesday.;)

    The main interest is next weekend though it is uncertain.


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