Can the book be beaten ...long term?

del roy · 09-12-2013 12:11pm #1

After 30 years watching and punting I would have to say.........NO. The reason for my answer would be the lack of disipline most if not all punters suffer.
I would say punters need a few things that they MUST have on their side to be given even the slightest chance.

1. DISIPLINE (if you have not got this, take up some other hobby)
2. Plenty of free time to go thru hours of form and watching racing.
3. Seperate betting bank. (nothing to do with normal day to day money).
4. Balls of steel. (to put the same amount on a 20/1 shot as a 6/4 shot.
5. Luck. (again if you are not a lucky person get a different hobby).

I am sure lots more can be added to the above list but they are in my view the things you need to give it ago. This came up in the job the other week and I being the elder/oldest/longest/punter of the group said "a huge NO"
however one lad is adamant that he makes it pay, he says he has been ahead the last three years since he started punting, I remain "doubtful" about him being ahead so I asked him to prove it to me, he said he would give me his bets for the next month but that is not enough time as anyone can have a lucky month so I suggested a year, we ended up with a six month period which in my veiw would not be enough time to say whether someone was a successful punter.
The reason for the thread is I (with his permission) will put up all his bets on here so a few of us can watch and learn (his words) the master.
Maybe I should have named the thread "THE Master" :rolleyes: but it is all in good fun so here we go. We will be starting with a bank of 100pts.

Mussleburgh 1.45 Vallani 8/1 2pts e/w

SRFC · 09-12-2013 12:23pm

Plenty of experts on here claiming they arent down over the years gambling,most people dont want to admit it they just remember the big winners and think they're ahead,all the small losers add up anyone codding their selves needs to cop on you need information to win in the long run,its all about being on a trier/fit horse.

shamdrog63 · 09-12-2013 12:28pm

Todays bet is a 2pts e/way but what would his maximum be? 5pts? The fact that somone is monitoring his bets will help him to be disciplined which is as you stated the most important factor in betting for profit.

Colonel Sanders · 09-12-2013 12:30pm

The book can only be beaten if you consistently bet at prices that under estimate your selection (there was a very long & contentious thread on this not so long ago).

I agree re discipline & a separate betting bank. Luck evens itself out in the very long run

Re having the same on a 20/1 shot as a 6/4 shot, this is nonsense. Your stake should vary in proportion to how much edge you feel you have

eg you make a horse at Leopardstown a 5/1 shot and you also make a horse on the same day at Chepstow a 5/1 shot. You can get 8/1 the horse at Leopardstown but 10/1 the horse in Chepstow. You should have more on the horse at Chepstow. There are any number of staking systems, Kelly being the most widely known/quoted

I know plenty of people who "make it pay" from professionals (mainly poker/sports rather than racing in the case of people I know) to those who can consistently show profits year in year out without it being their primary source of income

Harry Angstrom · 09-12-2013 12:32pm

SRFC wrote: »

Plenty of experts on here claiming they arent down over the years gambling,most people dont want to admit it they just remember the big winners and think they're ahead,all the small losers add up anyone codding their selves needs to cop on you need information to win in the long run,its all about being on a trier/fit horse.

Sure all they have to do is follow Willie Mullins

SRFC · 09-12-2013 12:35pm

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Sure all they have to do is follow Willie Mullins

The bank of Willie Mullins is right,every monday i've to get a brinks van to the house to take my winnings to the bank :cool:

CueCard7 · 09-12-2013 12:47pm

You can't beat watching lots of live races to give a small edge.

Also going with horse you feel will win.

Rather than trying to get a big price.

Be willing to oppose even money shots e/w.

Always go on prior form.

Don t back horses coming back from a break.

Stay away from shorties in low grade chases.

Keep in mind stable form.

Don't back in Kempton/Dundalk/Southwell

Dont back every race.

Bear in mind trainer/jockey momentum.

flutered · 09-12-2013 12:59pm

one of the most sucessful old time profesional punters it has been my pleasure to travel with would only bet in maiden races, then it had to be national hunt, but he has gone to that great betting ring in the sky, i know nothing of modern day racing, just adding to the thread.

shamdrog63 · 09-12-2013 1:10pm

CueCard7 wrote: »

You can't beat watching lots of live races to give a small edge.

Don't back in Kempton/Dundalk/Southwell

Provided you are sober when you watch them.You,ve just rubbished my ideal Friday night out.A few dung blackeners and a bet in the last at DinDawk to try and pay for the night.;)

mdwexford · 09-12-2013 1:52pm

I imagine close to zero people on here are in profit lifetime.

It's just a hobby for the majority of people, the hours of study it would take to be a successful gambler just isn't feasible for most people.

CueCard7 · 09-12-2013 2:38pm

Thanks for this. Can see why he might be in profit.

Took 8-1 price halved.

I will now lay off for free ride.

Slattsy · 09-12-2013 2:40pm

No.

CueCard7 · 09-12-2013 2:48pm

Lucky I laid off

Not following blind anymore

09-12-2013 2:57pm

The advent of the exchanges has made things tougher for punters.

You have to ask yourself the question: do I really know more than the risk department in the bookies, or the collective 'wisdom of crowds' on Betfair? The former employ mathematically minded horse racing enthusiasts to work full time on their books. The latter is proven to be an even better guide to real chance of winning, which means as soon as a bookie finds himself making an arb he'll pull the price back in.

I like to think I am shrewd enough but am well aware I do if for enjoyment rather than profit.

tryfix · 09-12-2013 4:13pm

If you're disciplined and good at picking selections, you might have the ability to beat the book, but you won't know until you record every bet you make and see how it balances out. I used to keep a ledger for 3 years, in two out of three years I had a very small loss and in the third I had a small profit, but there was 10% tax back in those days, so in today's tax free world I would have been in profit each year. I found that certain race types suited my punting skills and stuck to them, staying chases and 10f plus flat races suited my picking skills, and picking reasonably short priced horses 6/4, 5/2, up to about 6 or 7/1 was the best strategy while having only one bet in a day on the most standout value bet of that day.

09-12-2013 4:25pm

CueCard7 wrote: »

You can't beat watching lots of live races to give a small edge.

Also going with horse you feel will win.

Rather than trying to get a big price.

Be willing to oppose even money shots e/w.

Always go on prior form.

Don t back horses coming back from a break.

Stay away from shorties in low grade chases.

Keep in mind stable form.

Don't back in Kempton/Dundalk/Southwell

Dont back every race.

Bear in mind trainer/jockey momentum.

btw disagree with loads of this!

watching live races - usually very hard to see what is jumping well, how each horse is travelling. In addition, you can get a visceral 'thrill' when seeing a strongly finishing horse live that then means you compare him favourably and unfairly with another you've only seen on video.

"going with a horse you feel will win" can't disagree more #valuenotwinners

"always go on prior form" - always be looking for a horse you can expect a career best from - that hasn't been factored into the odds or handicap.

"jockey momentum" - unless it's linked to a stable, which of course it often is, I don't really buy this. I think it's always wise to be very cautious of spurious trends and runs of form. Mathematically they don't mean much, so unless there's a logic behind them, I would take no notice.

anyway, that's racing - all about different opinions. Like I say I am not money making machine...

Hulk Hands · 09-12-2013 4:59pm

mdwexford wrote: »

I imagine close to zero people on here are in profit lifetime.

It's just a hobby for the majority of people, the hours of study it would take to be a successful gambler just isn't feasible for most people.

Well define a successful gambler? What about an arber who solely backs arbs where he can't lose? Granted his accounts won't last long but there's plenty of ways around that. There are plenty of people who solely arb out there. Every single one of them is in profit if they don't mix in punting.

From listening to people on here, there are a few who are certainly ahead from gambling. You know that simply by accounts being restricted and it's not hard to tell who's serious and who's talking muck. In my own circumstance, I am certainly up from gambling and am fairly sure I haven't had a losing year since my late teens. All smallish stakes of course. I'm not a genius by any means, but I do know how to cheat like continuously arbing, backing ricks, bad e/w and bonus whoring. I have a small advantage in a couple of sports where I don't need to cheat. As far as racing goes, most don't have the expertise to profit from form reading. However it doesn't take a genius to consistently beat the price, especially using early price on Irish racing and having a full range of accounts. Simply following the moves and using books that are slow to react is an almost foolproof method. My accounts are disappearing one by one, but like I said, there's ways around that for anyone with imagination.

There are a lot more winning gamblers out there than people realise. It's a very central theme to Kevin blakes new book, that the perception that the books always win is wrong, and it doesn't take a genius to win. The problem in this country is the 'ah fuuck it' attitude to gambling. People will drive 2 miles to get petrol 5 cent a litre cheaper but won't take 3 mins to open a new account and avail of best price.

mdwexford · 09-12-2013 6:18pm

Of course arbers are and similar to yourself I have bonus whored and taken advantage of offers.

I'd describe successful as making enough profit to warrant the time you put into it.

A handful of people here might be in profit but a small minority I imagine.

It sounds like you are good at taking advantage of situations but most people aren't nearly as clued in as you and just back a few horses and a few football matches and look at it the same as buying a few pints or cigarettes or something.

Whenever I walk into a bookies it's generally the same youngish guys under 25 and lot of Asian guys who back every single horse race, dog race, numbers and whatever else is on at the moment. They run up to counter every 2 minutes throwing more money away. That's what the average punter is like not like you.

Slattsy · 09-12-2013 6:20pm

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Well define a successful gambler? What about an arber who solely backs arbs where he can't lose? Granted his accounts won't last long but there's plenty of ways around that. There are plenty of people who solely arb out there. Every single one of them is in profit if they don't mix in punting.

From listening to people on here, there are a few who are certainly ahead from gambling. You know that simply by accounts being restricted and it's not hard to tell who's serious and who's talking muck. In my own circumstance, I am certainly up from gambling and am fairly sure I haven't had a losing year since my late teens. All smallish stakes of course. I'm not a genius by any means, but I do know how to cheat like continuously arbing, backing ricks, bad e/w and bonus whoring. I have a small advantage in a couple of sports where I don't need to cheat. As far as racing goes, most don't have the expertise to profit from form reading. However it doesn't take a genius to consistently beat the price, especially using early price on Irish racing and having a full range of accounts. Simply following the moves and using books that are slow to react is an almost foolproof method. My accounts are disappearing one by one, but like I said, there's ways around that for anyone with imagination.

There are a lot more winning gamblers out there than people realise. It's a very central theme to Kevin blakes new book, that the perception that the books always win is wrong, and it doesn't take a genius to win. The problem in this country is the 'ah fuuck it' attitude to gambling. People will drive 2 miles to get petrol 5 cent a litre cheaper but won't take 3 mins to open a new account and avail of best price.

Screen-shots please

Motivator · 09-12-2013 8:12pm

Having worked in the industry for a long number of years I can honestly say I have never seen a serious punter in profit long term. My brother has also worked in the industry but is now a full time Betfair layer/punter. In over 20 years of watching/working in the betting industry I have never seen a better judge of a horse or a horse race than him. He set up a Betfair account about 7 years ago & for the first year he was ahead (iirc) about €17,000. Since then he has been losing thousands every year, I can tell you if he can't make long term profits doing what he's doing then nobody can - I don't care what anyone says.

I've seen people have €1,000s on horses & I've seen people have €1. Regardless of stakes, the punter cannot sustain a constant level of profit no natter what information or knowledge they think they have.

CueCard7 · 09-12-2013 8:23pm

Is Hugh Taylor's column not in profit?

I'd imagine JP McManus is nt keeping that fleet of horses for the good of his health.

Alan Potts is a pro gambler.

How does your brother sustain such losses?

Motivator · 09-12-2013 9:25pm

CueCard7 wrote: »

Is Hugh Taylor's column not in profit?

I'd imagine JP McManus is nt keeping that fleet of horses for the good of his health.

Alan Potts is a pro gambler.

How does your brother sustain such losses?

Whatever about Hugh Taylor, Alan Potts is a multi-millionaire entrepreneur. JP the same. Neither made their fortune from punting - although JP made plenty of cash from laying big bets back in the day.

My brother has plenty money & is retired. I reckon he's losing €10,000 - €15,000 a year. Plenty people with mortgages & young families losing plenty more.

hucklebuck · 09-12-2013 10:07pm

CueCard7 wrote: »

Is Hugh Taylor's column not in profit?

It possibly is if you use the price he says on his column but the price is well gone when his selection goes live.

CueCard7 · 09-12-2013 10:16pm

Well he could stake the bets before they go live.

Potts started out through gambling and that's how he and JP McManus got the capital needed to become entrepreneurs.

P o Brady came back from Cheltenham with half a million and it was this money he used to get started in life.

del roy · 09-12-2013 10:49pm

Right lads a message to everyone

As this thread is hopefully going to run for six months lets all be at least civil to each other so we can all comment for the whole six months.

A few things
I think Arbers are different to people who gamble and let everything ride on the result of the race whether that be right or wrong in people's mind.

Can I also suggest that coming on here saying I know people who make several thousand a year maybe irrelevant unless we can have some sort of info on what the people are gonna do over the next few months.

The only reason I started this thread is the guy who says he is a winning punter is willing to put up or shut up and I can honestly say I am a big believer in

IT CANNOT BE DONE

However I remain open minded and I have stated to him that I would only say he was successful if he returned a 50 percent profit because as someone earlier said there is no point putting in 4 hours a day studying for six months and it resulting in €1 per hour after 6 months with a roi of about 3 or 4 percent.

On to today, VALLANI finished 3rd thanks to the young jockey who never gave up the chase.

4pts stakes
5.2pts returned

Starting bank. 100pts
Bank now. 101.2pts
Profit. 1.2pts

Btw I have decided to back all these to €20 per point.

Colonel Sanders · 09-12-2013 10:52pm

Do you mean 50% profit on initial bank or on turnover?

If it's the latter forget about it, most pros work to c8-9% on turnover in my experience

del roy · 09-12-2013 11:15pm

50 per cent of the bank, time is money Mr Sanders and anything less I would be better suited behind the counter in a fast food outlet on minimum wage.

SRFC · 09-12-2013 11:31pm

Motivator wrote: »

Whatever about Hugh Taylor, Alan Potts is a multi-millionaire entrepreneur. JP the same. Neither made their fortune from punting - although JP made plenty of cash from laying big bets back in the day.

My brother has plenty money & is retired. I reckon he's losing €10,000 - €15,000 a year. Plenty people with mortgages & young families losing plenty more.

Just for for the record Alan Potts the pro punter is not alan potts who owns sizing europe.

del roy · 09-12-2013 11:37pm

just sent a text

2.00 Monsieur Jamie 1pt e/w 8/1 and 3.10 Midnight charmer 2pts win 5/2

mr.jingle · 10-12-2013 12:07am

In my own experience, there is not a hope i can beat the book long term. As my dad says you only hear your friends talk about the winning bets, but very rarely do they tell about the losing bets.

In just over 10yrs of gambling I would say i'm down a big 5 figure sum possibly 6 figures. Taken me over 10yrs to find that gambling isnt my game and only recently closed all my accounts as I start losing discipline again.

Anyone that has the time, patience an most of all discipline to be in profit over a sustained period has my admiration as its such a tough game to win on without putting in the proper effort.

I fear for people like Cuecard, betting every race is the quickest way to the poorhouse, some of the points you put down in an earlier post made me want to reach into the screen and slap some sense into you but if you haven't got it by now that your on a slippery slope then you've only yourself to blame as you've been warned numerous times on this by others. In fact you remind me of a younger idiotic me, backing for the sake of backing and watching a race.

Anyways good luck with this log it could be an interesting read over the coming months

CueCard7 · 10-12-2013 12:31am

But if I don't bet on a race it won't let me see it online.

I'm in profit.

Just follow my tips in tip thread you'll see that im in profit

Can the book be beaten ...long term?

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