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Wind farms - ugly truths

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    #32
    fclauson
    Registered Users Posts: 1,691 ✭✭✭fclauson


    Suggest you read http://www.seai.ie/Publications/Statistics_Publications/EPSSU_Publications/Renewable-Energy-in-Ireland-2012.pdf

    page 49 - the paragraph

    The limitations and caveats associated with this methodology include that it ignores plant used to meet the associated reserve requirements of renewables. These open cycle plants will typically have lower efficiency and generate increased CO2 and NOx emissions compared with combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT). The method does not account for such cycling effects ..... .

    So cycling is ignored from this report (which is the elephant in the corner)- they are working on a new report but its not available as yet

    Additionally you might like to read the attached which positions that SEAI is not taking account of all the factors

    finally - you might like to read http://www.eirgrid.com/media/2012_Curtailment_Report.pdf (the 2013 is being created at the moment) to see how much non wind curtailment has to happen to accomodate wind - and the impact wind is having on the network. Basically they are having to reconfig the network (Grid25) to allow for the wind because wind causes operational difficulties across the network and leads to network instability.


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    #33
    dathi
    Registered Users Posts: 1,386 ✭✭✭dathi



    So cycling is ignored from this report (which is the elephant in the corner)- they are working on a new report but its not available .

    would mass uptake of a solar pv array similar to the one you have installed not also cause cycling


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    #34
    deegs
    Registered Users Posts: 1,268 ✭✭✭deegs


    SEAI-government/eu funded initiative = biased
    http://www.seai.ie/About_Us/SEAI-and-EU-ERDF-Funding/

    eirgrid - private business = biased
    http://www.eirgrid.com/aboutus/

    Your attachment is from a chemical engineer called Pat Swords. I tried to find his report in some on-line repositories but could not, so I can only assumed it is unpublished (and therefore not peer reviewed) or refused publication due to one of many issues.
    Having looked through it I can see it is not very well grounded and not many relevant works are cited.
    A quick google shows this individual has been complaining to the irish government and EU for over5 years about wind energy...
    That report is 100% biased

    You see, if you come on here an say this is your opinion and it is the shared opinion of several commercially entities and individuals that are clearly biased than I would not object at all.
    But when you come on here stating "facts" when they clearly (to any sane person are not!) then you will run up against opposition.

    For example, any Irish government body report will have cost a fortune and go out of their way to hide any inepitute on their behalf... same with EU report. Similiarly, the irish government could cause a kerfuffle with Irish water and bring out a report on irish water in 5 years time saying the cost of water is average. You'd be daft to believe it....
    But if you base you opinions on http://ascelibrary.org/journal/jwrmd5 or http://link.springer.com/journal/11269 what you would have would be facts... Cold hard scientific facts that could not be refuted by an online community

    To sum up:
    Do some real research on wind power and be heard or do some armchair research and spend your time going in circles trying to defend it!


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    #35
    fclauson
    Registered Users Posts: 1,691 ✭✭✭fclauson


    deegs wrote: »
    ...Cold hard scientific facts that could not be refuted by an online community
    ..

    Wish I could find some - I have had to form my opinion from documents provided by bodies who are supposed to be doing that research for me !!!!

    Any pointers welcome


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    #36
    deegs
    Registered Users Posts: 1,268 ✭✭✭deegs


    fclauson wrote: »
    Wish I could find some - I have had to form my opinion from documents provided by bodies who are supposed to be doing that research for me !!!!

    Any pointers welcome
    I would start by not using a prefix of "Science" when you post about things that have no scientific support...

    Second, there are plenty of places where you can get that kind of research (that support your opinion or refute it!)
    Start with google scholar. Sometimes that research is locked within a library where you have to pay for it, but sometimes, google finds a free version.

    Third, if you find research and cannot get a copy/dont want to pay, email the author. 9/10 they are more than happy for 'anyone' to read their work.

    Finally, don't rely on the 'bodies' they have their uses, they fund a lot of research, but they take that research, put their spin on it and present their version to you. not too bad until each body try's to outdo the other (especially government bodies) and you just get confused and don't know what to believe... just look at all the crap coming through the door for elections...

    Besides, I don't think its that you cannot find the facts (they exist) its just your questions are too general.

    Spend a bit of time looking at google scholar, let us know what you find.


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    #37
    fclauson
    Registered Users Posts: 1,691 ✭✭✭fclauson


    So here is the challenge - 3 days of very low wind - so to cover this not a single old thermal unit can be decommissioned - that's the reason for my original post.

    And if you compare predicted wind vs actual wind - the thermal plants have to work with this guess work

    BoMBiYYIgAAaEQG.png


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    #38
    deegs
    Registered Users Posts: 1,268 ✭✭✭deegs


    Science daily is a good place to look also.....
    This might interest you?
    "Managing renewable energy intelligently" Sent from the ScienceDaily iOS app http://m.sciencedaily.com/4.0/article/43711/94931/95761990?tmpl=deeplink.html

    Follow the link at the end to see more relevant work from that institute.


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    #39
    AngryHippie
    Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭AngryHippie


    ted1 wrote: »
    Energy demands have decreased during the recession and also machines are getting more energy efficient and people are managing it better.

    That is a very Ireland specific phenomenon. The drop in Economic activity has resulted in people being a lot more careful about their energy consumption, and trimming it down to the bare essentials to avoid getting billed for excess. This will happen everywhere as the cost of generation continues to increase. The gross consumption will continue to rise with the population.

    Population up => Energy consumption up. Basic stuff.


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    #40
    fclauson
    Registered Users Posts: 1,691 ✭✭✭fclauson


    They may never come back

    http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/irish-householders-pay-among-the-highest-prices-in-europe-for-electricity-30293043.html


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    #41
    fclauson
    Registered Users Posts: 1,691 ✭✭✭fclauson


    Found this - which might be interesting - have not had time to full read it

    http://www.eurelectric.org/media/61388/flexibility_report_final-2011-102-0003-01-e.pdf


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    #42
    Grudaire
    Registered Users Posts: 3,620 ✭✭✭Grudaire


    fclauson wrote: »
    They may never come back

    http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/irish-householders-pay-among-the-highest-prices-in-europe-for-electricity-30293043.html

    That's an interesting article, didn't know prices had risen so much over the last year.

    Given the thread that we're in I assume you're implying that this is a result of the wind farms? But there's no evidence to suggest that is there? :confused:


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    #43
    fclauson
    Registered Users Posts: 1,691 ✭✭✭fclauson


    dathi wrote: »
    would mass uptake of a solar pv array similar to the one you have installed not also cause cycling

    yes - probably


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    #44
    fclauson
    Registered Users Posts: 1,691 ✭✭✭fclauson


    Grudaire wrote: »
    That's an interesting article, didn't know prices had risen so much over the last year.

    Given the thread that we're in I assume you're implying that this is a result of the wind farms? But there's no evidence to suggest that is there? :confused:

    The fact we are doubling up on infrastructure is where some of the cost is coming from

    for every turbine you have to have a matching backup generator
    plus the turbines are being subsidised (check out the PSO levy on your bill)


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    #45
    deegs
    Registered Users Posts: 1,268 ✭✭✭deegs


    fclauson wrote: »
    The fact we are doubling up on infrastructure is where some of the cost is coming from

    for every turbine you have to have a matching backup generator
    plus the turbines are being subsidised (check out the PSO levy on your bill)

    At the risk of sounding like a broken record...
    Don't suppose you have and scientific papers supporting anything of the above?

    I think you are confusing the technology and the operator.
    Energy price hikes are more likely due to rising profits than infrastructure...
    http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/energy-and-resources/profits-at-esb-rise-by-80-million-as-squeeze-on-costs-continues-1.1725185

    Otherwise how can energy be cheaper in other countries?

    The link I posted earlier was from my ipad, and it didnt link correctly.
    Here is the article http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/03/140325094814.htm its about research from http://www.fraunhofer.de/en/press/research-news/2014/march/managing-renewables-intelligently.html

    But there are many more examples on science daily, and they are all based on independent peer reviewed research (not government or biased body spun research):
    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/01/140102113124.htm
    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/03/140318093403.htm
    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/02/140219205102.htm
    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/12/131203124532.htm
    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/03/140320140854.htm

    Science daily is good as it breaks down research for the layman, you can still get to the real research/papers via sciencedaily and the likes, by following the source at the bottom.


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    #46
    deegs
    Registered Users Posts: 1,268 ✭✭✭deegs


    AngryHippie wrote: »
    That is a very Ireland specific phenomenon. The drop in Economic activity has resulted in people being a lot more careful about their energy consumption, and trimming it down to the bare essentials to avoid getting billed for excess. This will happen everywhere as the cost of generation continues to increase. The gross consumption will continue to rise with the population.

    Population up => Energy consumption up. Basic stuff.

    Consumption will, most likely, continue to rise.
    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/04/140402133951.htm


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    #47
    H3llR4iser
    Registered Users Posts: 4,027 ✭✭✭H3llR4iser


    AngryHippie wrote: »
    That is a very Ireland specific phenomenon. The drop in Economic activity has resulted in people being a lot more careful about their energy consumption, and trimming it down to the bare essentials to avoid getting billed for excess. This will happen everywhere as the cost of generation continues to increase. The gross consumption will continue to rise with the population.

    Population up => Energy consumption up. Basic stuff.

    And not only that - the way power is used in Ireland is extremely inefficient: Most households still fully rely on incandescent light bulbs, a lot of properties still have electric heating, electric showers and the awful immersion tanks, and in many cases we are talking about archaic implementations of these. Even without a recession, energy use would still go down as houses and businesses get updated to more energy-efficient technologies.


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    #48
    fclauson
    Registered Users Posts: 1,691 ✭✭✭fclauson


    H3llR4iser wrote: »
    And not only that - the way power is used in Ireland is extremely inefficient: Most households still fully rely on incandescent light bulbs, a lot of properties still have electric heating, electric showers and the awful immersion tanks, and in many cases we are talking about archaic implementations of these. Even without a recession, energy use would still go down as houses and businesses get updated to more energy-efficient technologies.

    Totally agree - demand side management should be a focus as it has many benefits including leaving more spending money in the economy, less fuel "poverty", and just nicer homes to live in


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    #49
    djpbarry
    Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    fclauson wrote: »
    So here is the challenge - 3 days of very low wind - so to cover this not a single old thermal unit can be decommissioned - that's the reason for my original post.
    Because Ireland can't import electricity from abroad?
    fclauson wrote: »
    And if you compare predicted wind vs actual wind...
    They tally up pretty damn well.
    fclauson wrote: »
    for every turbine you have to have a matching backup generator
    That really depends on your network topology.

    The problem with your analysis is it is restricted to the local level. In an age when technologies such as HVDC transmission are being rolled out, we need to move away from such small-scale thinking.


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    #50
    fclauson
    Registered Users Posts: 1,691 ✭✭✭fclauson


    djpbarry wrote: »
    Because Ireland can't import electricity from abroad?
    not if there is a lack of wind across swathes of Europe (which has happened) and why should we "dump" our carbon emission elsewhere !!
    They tally up pretty damn well.
    not when you are talking about a couple of hour ramp time for a generator - thats why they keep them spinning (and thus generating wasteful electricity)
    That really depends on your network topology.

    The problem with your analysis is it is restricted to the local level. In an age when technologies such as HVDC transmission are being rolled out, we need to move away from such small-scale thinking.

    and that is the whole pylon argument


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    #51
    deegs
    Registered Users Posts: 1,268 ✭✭✭deegs


    U state the first two points as fact, you are incorrect, or do u have some evidence?

    And how does you comment about pylons relate to back up generator for turbines?

    Frankly I'm amazed at your ability to continue this thread by avoiding and legitimate facts and dancing around straightforward questions and issues?
    It's an impressive ability ;)


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    #52
    ted1
    Registered Users Posts: 23,259 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    AngryHippie wrote: »
    That is a very Ireland specific phenomenon. The drop in Economic activity has resulted in people being a lot more careful about their energy consumption, and trimming it down to the bare essentials to avoid getting billed for excess. This will happen everywhere as the cost of generation continues to increase. The gross consumption will continue to rise with the population.

    Population up => Energy consumption up. Basic stuff.
    Industry and closure if factories etc are to blame. The domestic market makes up very little of the overall system demand


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    #53
    ted1
    Registered Users Posts: 23,259 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    deegs wrote: »
    At the risk of sounding like a broken record...
    Don't suppose you have and scientific papers supporting anything of the above?

    I think you are confusing the technology and the operator.
    Energy price hikes are more likely due to rising profits than infrastructure...
    http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/energy-and-resources/profits-at-esb-rise-by-80-million-as-squeeze-on-costs-continues-1.1725185

    Otherwise how can energy be cheaper in other countries?
    Our energy mix and reliance on imported fuels is the reason why our prices is so high


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    #54
    ted1
    Registered Users Posts: 23,259 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    H3llR4iser wrote: »
    And not only that - the way power is used in Ireland is extremely inefficient: Most households still fully rely on incandescent light bulbs, a lot of properties still have electric heating, electric showers and the awful immersion tanks, and in many cases we are talking about archaic implementations of these. Even without a recession, energy use would still go down as houses and businesses get updated to more energy-efficient technologies.

    Loads of inaccuracies there. Electric showers are in most cases actually more efficent.
    When I use my electric shower I heat the exact amount if water I use and not the full 300 litres of water In the tank and rads. Even after looking at the efficiency of how the electricity is generated and compare that to my boiler I reckon that the shower is still more efficent.


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    #55
    ted1
    Registered Users Posts: 23,259 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    deegs wrote: »
    SEAI-government/eu funded initiative = biased
    http://www.seai.ie/About_Us/SEAI-and-EU-ERDF-Funding/

    eirgrid - private business = biased
    http://www.eirgrid.com/aboutus/

    SEAI= Brendan Halligan= bias towards wind and very very pro wind


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    #56
    deegs
    Registered Users Posts: 1,268 ✭✭✭deegs


    ted1 wrote: »
    Our energy mix and reliance on imported fuels is the reason why our prices is so high
    To be fair, if esb made less profit, prices would be lower correct?

    And it doesn't matter what direction the bias moves toward, it's still bias. Good for a read, but not good enough to argue or state as fact.


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    #57
    AngryHippie
    Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭AngryHippie


    ted1 wrote: »
    Industry and closure if factories etc are to blame. The domestic market makes up very little of the overall system demand

    When I said "People"
    I also meant business manager, production managers, employees etc. etc.

    They are all people, and if the direction is given within an organization to minimize power consumption, it will normally happen, whether the organization is a company or a household.

    As for companies closing their doors, that is another matter and a good point.

    To make this discussion just about Ireland is a very narrow minded view for a global issue though. It makes not a hat of sh1te difference if we had zero emissions as long as the US, China, India etc. continue to increase emissions and grow both population and consumption, the global risks will continue to grow. But then it becomes about climate change deniers and turns into a different discussion all of a sudden.

    Wind power is a very low Carbon output energy source compared to the alternatives available. As such, a network should be constructed to harness this power. Whether it is utilised to feed into the current grid, or to feed an energy storage system, or as part of an overall grid and energy system upgrade is really a moot point.
    The ugly truths pointed out in the initial post are mild inconveniences of our current system, which has a lifetime in any case.
    There always has been and will always be wind, somewhere. Not always 100% predictable, not always constant, but it will be there.

    Statements like the OP's are typical of Hydrocarbon industry apologists, whose only goal is to delay action, deny obvious truths, hamper innovation and generally frustrate and misdirect any action to try and improve the direction we are travelling in as a species and a planet.


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    #58
    fclauson
    Registered Users Posts: 1,691 ✭✭✭fclauson


    deegs wrote: »
    U state the first two points as fact, you are incorrect, or do u have some evidence?

    And how does you comment about pylons relate to back up generator for turbines?

    Frankly I'm amazed at your ability to continue this thread by avoiding and legitimate facts and dancing around straight

    Ok - these are not peer reviewed - but lets take them at face value

    http://www.thejournal.ie/wind-energy-ireland-production-demand-grid-figures-1328668-Feb2014/

    and

    http://euanmearns.com/correlated-wind-and-incoherent-energy-policy/

    where on the 7th of Jan would we get power for the European network ?

    If as you suggest we put more and more wind in place here in Ireland, come a calm day (see my earlier diagram) we have to purchase power from somewhere - and on those days of low wind the purchase price goes up. We could be held ransom by other nations and have to purchase power at a higher price.

    We already have one of the highest prices of electricity in Europe. We use the UK/Ireland interconnector regularly (although he have the generation capacity here) because ite cheaper for Eirgrid to purchase UK electricity than use our own. IF we did not have to purchase the wind energy first in Ireland we would have cheaper electricity.


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    #59
    djpbarry
    Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    fclauson wrote: »
    not if there is a lack of wind across swathes of Europe…
    At what point did I say the whole of Europe should become completely dependent on wind-derived electricity?
    fclauson wrote: »
    not when you are talking about a couple of hour ramp time for a generator…
    Gas-fired power plants don’t take a couple of hours to fire up.
    fclauson wrote: »
    and that is the whole pylon argument
    Eh?
    fclauson wrote: »
    If as you suggest we put more and more wind in place here in Ireland, come a calm day (see my earlier diagram) we have to purchase power from somewhere - and on those days of low wind the purchase price goes up. We could be held ransom by other nations and have to purchase power at a higher price.
    On very windy days, Ireland could be in a position to export power. It’s a two-way street.

    You need to stop thinking of Ireland as an isolated, self-contained generator/consumer of electricity and start thinking of it as a sub-subsection of a European super-grid.
    fclauson wrote: »
    We already have one of the highest prices of electricity in Europe.
    More nonsense.


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    #60
    ted1
    Registered Users Posts: 23,259 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    AngryHippie wrote: »

    Statements like the OP's are typical of Hydrocarbon industry apologists, whose only goal is to delay action, deny obvious truths, hamper innovation and generally frustrate and misdirect any action to try and improve the direction we are travelling in as a species and a planet.
    See I think that wind is the lazy option that hampers innovation. It tricks people into thinking were using clean energy and that we have an answer. It gets thrown in with wave and tidal energy.

    When really there is no commercially viable tidal or wave energy. It indeed probably takes focus and finance away from these thechnologies which is wrong. Tidal energy is realiable and can be pedicted not forecasted,years in advanced. And as long as the earth keeps spinning, the tide will be guaranteed to come in and out twice a day


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    #61
    AngryHippie
    Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭AngryHippie


    ted1 wrote: »
    See I think that wind is the lazy option that hampers innovation. It tricks people into thinking were using clean energy and that we have an answer. It gets thrown in with wave and tidal energy.

    When really there is no commercially viable tidal or wave energy. It indeed probably takes focus and finance away from these thechnogirs which is wrong. Tidal energy is realiable and can be pedicted not forecasted years in advanced. And as long as the earth keeps spinning, the tide will be guaranteed to come in and out twice a day

    Correct, and it will also have a slack twice a day.
    Read about the rule of twelfths, and you will understand that it reaches peak flow for 2-4 hours per day, the rest of the time it is accelerating or decelerating. So to call tidal power constant, is also a misnomer, and to insinuate that we can just plug it into the grid any more than we can wind is equally disingenuous.
    So in that, Wind, and Tide have a common requirement, they both need capacity for storage, or for an intelligent rapidly switchable grid, or LV devices.
    The same will be true of most renewables. They are not constant. Solar - day and night. Tide - Ebb and Flow. Wind - Gust and Calm.
    The ultimate solution will be a combination of all of those available, with energy storage solutions to smooth out the peaks and troughs in order to make it suitable for some form of the distribution system we have today.
    Maybe I'm out of the box on this one, I'm not sure, but ruling out something that does work, but could be better, on the basis that something else might work and might be better is a pretty sure fire way to waste valuable time.


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