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Winter 2011/2012
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Hi Folks,
A few posts back (last page), one or two posters were speculating about how the jet stream was very active and how this would lead to Ireland having a mild winter this year.
Not necessarily so. As already pointed out, the jet stream can move above or below Ireland in a matter of days.
Take a look at MT's forecast for Ireland from this time last year (4th October 2010) - you might note that temperatures exactly 12 months ago were very similar to what we have this week, i.e. within the 15oC-17oC temperature range.
And we all know what followed at the end of November, and for all of December
Snowsville!
Have faith my weather friends, have faith
MT Cranium Forecast from 04/10/2010
Monday, 4 October, 2010
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ALERT for strong winds and squally showers especially in Connacht and west Munster this afternoon, spreading further east by this evening.
TODAY will start out sunny in eastern counties with a rapid increase in higher cloud in western Ireland. By mid-day rain will be spreading into the west and southerly winds will have risen to 25-40 mph. The east will have the higher cloud by then but it will stay rather bright and not quite as windy, S 20-30 mph. By late afternoon the west will have some lashing showers and wind gusts to near 60 mph in exposed locations (40-45 mph fairly common), with some squally and perhaps thundery showers and hail. The light rain showers out ahead of this front will be into the east by late afternoon. Highs will be generally about 15-16 C.
TONIGHT the squally showers and strong winds will cross the country by about midnight, with winds veering from S to SW and gradually falling back to around 20-30 mph before dawn. The heavier showers will taper off to more isolated light showers and it may clear for intervals after midnight, with lows generally 8-10 C. The total rainfalls from today and overnight should average about 10-15 mms. A few locations could see 25 mms.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will be fairly similar with moderate SW winds, frequent showers but also some sunny intervals, and temperatures of about 8-10 C early in the day to 15-16 C mid-afternoon. Rainfalls of about 3-5 mms each day will be recorded and some of the showers could become thundery with hail.
THURSDAY at present looks rather windy in the west, as gale to storm force SSE winds develop offshore towards a maximum around 15-20 W due to a deep ocean storm moving slowly north. Rain from this may appear on the outer west coast and the cloud will spread over most other parts of Ireland although it could be sunny at times in Leinster and Ulster. Winds will rise to about 30-50 mph from the SSE on the west coast, but will stay closer to 20 mph further east. Following a rather chilly morning low of 3-7 C the highs will be 15-17 C.
FRIDAY will see the rain and gusty winds making some progress east but as the storm will be looping back to the west and south, these very strong gusts should subside after a while and the winds may back somewhat from
S to SE and fall back to 20-30 mph. Rainfalls of 3-7 mms appear likely but it could become a heavier rain in some western counties for a while. Highs on Friday will be about 15-16 C.
THE WEEKEND will continue to see mild air coming up from France towards Ireland on moderate SE winds, and whatever cloud and rain is left from the slowly decaying ocean storm may break into light showers but cloud will tend to remain longer. Highs will be around 16 or 17 C with nights bringing lows of near 7 C.
NEXT WEEK the dry, rather cool air now over Scandinavia under strong high pressure will begin to drain out towards the Atlantic low, backing winds further to ESE then ENE over time into next week ... the results are likely to be a period of rather cool but not overly cold weather with more of a clearing trend allowing for frosts to develop at night in some areas. But there could be some lingering cloud and isolated showers especially in the Dublin area from the winds off the Irish Sea. This is a weather pattern that can bring some rather warm temperatures to the west coast. Eventually once the Scandinavian high moves far enough west, northerly winds can set in around mid-month and there could be a few rather chilly days with snow possibly appearing on the highest peaks in chilly showers. That would be as far off as the 15th or later.
By the way, today will probably remain fairly dry for the Ryder Cup matches, although rain or drizzle is moving north through England and could brush the Newport area too. Of course the heavier weather moving into Ireland won't get to Wales before evening.
Meanwhile, here on Sunday 3rd, we had a cloudy but reasonably tolerable day with highs of about 17 C. A weak front is moving through but rainfalls with it are trace amounts. The eastern U.S. has cooled off considerably and highs were in the 15-17 C range with northeast winds in the larger cities. Not much action on the tropical front today.
Watch for updates and other threads on today's developing weather.
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Hi Folks,
A few posts back (last page), one or two posters were speculating about how the jet stream was very active and how this would lead to Ireland having a mild winter this year.
Not necessarily so. As already pointed out, the jet stream can move above or below Ireland in a matter of days.
Take a look at MT's forecast for Ireland from this time last year (4th October 2010) - you might note that temperatures exactly 12 months ago were very similar to what we have this week, i.e. within the 15oC-17oC temperature range.
And we all know what followed at the end of November, and for all of December Snowsville!
Have faith my weather friends, have faith
MT Cranium Forecast from 04/10/2010
Monday, 4 October, 2010
_____________________________
ALERT for strong winds and squally showers especially in Connacht and west Munster this afternoon, spreading further east by this evening.
TODAY will start out sunny in eastern counties with a rapid increase in higher cloud in western Ireland. By mid-day rain will be spreading into the west and southerly winds will have risen to 25-40 mph. The east will have the higher cloud by then but it will stay rather bright and not quite as windy, S 20-30 mph. By late afternoon the west will have some lashing showers and wind gusts to near 60 mph in exposed locations (40-45 mph fairly common), with some squally and perhaps thundery showers and hail. The light rain showers out ahead of this front will be into the east by late afternoon. Highs will be generally about 15-16 C.
TONIGHT the squally showers and strong winds will cross the country by about midnight, with winds veering from S to SW and gradually falling back to around 20-30 mph before dawn. The heavier showers will taper off to more isolated light showers and it may clear for intervals after midnight, with lows generally 8-10 C. The total rainfalls from today and overnight should average about 10-15 mms. A few locations could see 25 mms.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will be fairly similar with moderate SW winds, frequent showers but also some sunny intervals, and temperatures of about 8-10 C early in the day to 15-16 C mid-afternoon. Rainfalls of about 3-5 mms each day will be recorded and some of the showers could become thundery with hail.
THURSDAY at present looks rather windy in the west, as gale to storm force SSE winds develop offshore towards a maximum around 15-20 W due to a deep ocean storm moving slowly north. Rain from this may appear on the outer west coast and the cloud will spread over most other parts of Ireland although it could be sunny at times in Leinster and Ulster. Winds will rise to about 30-50 mph from the SSE on the west coast, but will stay closer to 20 mph further east. Following a rather chilly morning low of 3-7 C the highs will be 15-17 C.
FRIDAY will see the rain and gusty winds making some progress east but as the storm will be looping back to the west and south, these very strong gusts should subside after a while and the winds may back somewhat from
S to SE and fall back to 20-30 mph. Rainfalls of 3-7 mms appear likely but it could become a heavier rain in some western counties for a while. Highs on Friday will be about 15-16 C.
THE WEEKEND will continue to see mild air coming up from France towards Ireland on moderate SE winds, and whatever cloud and rain is left from the slowly decaying ocean storm may break into light showers but cloud will tend to remain longer. Highs will be around 16 or 17 C with nights bringing lows of near 7 C.
NEXT WEEK the dry, rather cool air now over Scandinavia under strong high pressure will begin to drain out towards the Atlantic low, backing winds further to ESE then ENE over time into next week ... the results are likely to be a period of rather cool but not overly cold weather with more of a clearing trend allowing for frosts to develop at night in some areas. But there could be some lingering cloud and isolated showers especially in the Dublin area from the winds off the Irish Sea. This is a weather pattern that can bring some rather warm temperatures to the west coast. Eventually once the Scandinavian high moves far enough west, northerly winds can set in around mid-month and there could be a few rather chilly days with snow possibly appearing on the highest peaks in chilly showers. That would be as far off as the 15th or later.
By the way, today will probably remain fairly dry for the Ryder Cup matches, although rain or drizzle is moving north through England and could brush the Newport area too. Of course the heavier weather moving into Ireland won't get to Wales before evening.
Meanwhile, here on Sunday 3rd, we had a cloudy but reasonably tolerable day with highs of about 17 C. A weak front is moving through but rainfalls with it are trace amounts. The eastern U.S. has cooled off considerably and highs were in the 15-17 C range with northeast winds in the larger cities. Not much action on the tropical front today.
Watch for updates and other threads on today's developing weather.
thanks for that needed a little pick me up, started thinking there actually might be a chance this winter could be 'average' :O0 -
not to burst your bubble bb but it still could,best not to get your hopes up just yet, then if its is average you wont be TOO disappointed but if it is a snowfest then you'll be over the moonthanks for that needed a little pick me up, started thinking there actually might be a chance this winter could be 'average' :O 0 -
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has there been any winter 2011 2012 updates from anyone lately ???
ive seen most of them last month an that , but a few were sayin they would have some updates early october.. so jus wondering has anyone seen anything..?
i know were a bit far out for accurate predictions but jus for a matter of interest really id like to read them and see what there sayin !!!
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has there been any winter 2011 2012 updates from anyone lately ???
ive seen most of them last month an that , but a few were sayin they would have some updates early october.. so jus wondering has anyone seen anything..?
i know were a bit far out for accurate predictions but jus for a matter of interest really id like to read them and see what there sayin !!!
I'm eagerly awaiting mt,s winter outlook over the next 2-3 weeks 0 -
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here ya go have a nice read https://sites.google.com/site/crabtreescompendiumofesoterica/winter-forecast-2011-2012
Edit - You edited before I posted !0 -
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