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backing home and away vs laying the draw

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  • 25-08-2014 11:15pm
    #1
    mayoman1973
    Registered Users Posts: 1,386 ✭✭✭


    SayI have home and away win odds as follows




    1.32 and 7.6

    Say I want to win £10 regardless of a who wins provided the game does not end in a draw, effectively laying the draw.
    How do you calculate the amounts you need to back on each home or away in order to win exactly £10 ?


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    #2
    Bateman
    Registered Users Posts: 4,818 ✭✭✭Bateman


    You could quite easily design a spreadsheet that will do this for you, if you don't have the maths then actually typing the hypothetical amounts into the boxes on betfair/betdaq will update the "what if" amounts on each outcome on the screen so after a few times doing it that way, you'll start to know.

    Betfair and Betdaq markets are usually effificient enough though (ie close to 100%) that laying the draw would be as efficient.


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    #3
    mayoman1973
    Registered Users Posts: 1,386 ✭✭✭mayoman1973


    There are some games that are not on betfair and I was trying to programatically calculate what is the effective Draw lay price you are getting if you back both home and away teams for a fixed return.
    Would it be fair to say that on odds portal that if you take the average Draw odds then roughly 1.15 times this number will give you the expected lay price on betfair.? I have manually done this for 100 - 200 games and it seems to hold up but I have a database of over 100,000 games across 100 leagues and I want to do it programatically.
    Basically my approach is to analyse all these games, calculate a teams current form, table position, time of season, and see if there is any trends in results to find value in some bets where teams of various league positions and form are playing. Initial results look promising and I know some skeptics will say that bookies have farms of main frame computers doing similar work but a computer is only as good as the programmer that is coding it. Its the challenge you see!!
    For example there is a certain type of result (my potential edge so I won't be too specific ) that happens when a Bottom of the table team ON FORM meets a top of the table team OFF form at home that is a lot different from what the odds say. A difference of 8-9%. With a sample size of 12,000 games I want to get more exact results on ROI etc.


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    #4
    Healio
    Registered Users Posts: 2,825 ✭✭✭Healio


    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=87352588


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