Good time to buy AIB or BOI shares???

Time Magazine · 16-10-2008 7:31pm

skywalker wrote: »

Ive read through this entire thread & despite the warnings am still thinking about buying shares in AIB, or perhaps a larger foreign bank, HSBC. Thinking along similar lines to grawns, between €1-5K for a long term investment.

For someone whos never bought shares before, whats the easiest way to do this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nE11Zrrp24I

pocketdooz · 17-10-2008 12:22am

skywalker wrote: »

Ive read through this entire thread & despite the warnings am still thinking about buying shares in AIB, or perhaps a larger foreign bank, HSBC. Thinking along similar lines to grawns, between €1-5K for a long term investment.

For someone whos never bought shares before, whats the easiest way to do this?

I refer you to BoomBoomBazza's thread - find it and read it all.

Why in God's name would you want to buy bank stocks now ?

It's ridiculous - you're trying to catch a falling knife.

There is SO MUCH VALUE out there right now and you're narrowly focused on bank stocks cos they've come down so much

THERE IS A REASON THEY HAVE COME DOWN SO MUCH

Do you really think you are outsmarting the market by buying now ?

Like no-one else has realised they're cheaper now than they were 6 months ago. Seriously mate - dig in to the numbers and you will see why they are down much

If you buy them - good luck - I hope it works out for you.

woodseb · 17-10-2008 9:25am

pocketdooz wrote: »

Why in God's name would you want to buy bank stocks now ?

It's ridiculous - you're trying to catch a falling knife.

There is SO MUCH VALUE out there right now and you're narrowly focused on bank stocks cos they've come down so much

.

go on then - where is the value elsewhere? if you have to buy something now, it would be crazy to totally write off the banks considering how much it has sold off and the measures that have been taken - there is value there as there will be winners and losers in this shake up - it just depends on your risk ability and time horizon

skywalker · 17-10-2008 10:38am

The Economist wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nE11Zrrp24I

Funny how the guy below you managed to convey the same message without being a prick about it.

Again though, for someone whos never bought shares before, whats the easiest way to do this?

Baird · 17-10-2008 11:27am

skywalker wrote: »

Funny how the guy below you managed to convey the same message without being a prick about it.

Again though, for someone whos never bought shares before, whats the easiest way to do this?

The easiest way to do this is probably through AIB or get in contact with a stockbrokers like Davys, Goodbodys, Bloxhams etc.
Its like setting up a bank account but with a lot more background checks.
AIB online banking lets you fill out the forms if you would find that handier.
Think their commission is quite high though so if you intend to buy/sell a few
times in the next few years its probably worth your while setting up an account.

As for value to be had out there, value is a subjective thing.
Personally my top 3 buys in the Irish market at the moment are Ryanair, AIB
and maybe Fyffes on a dip in price after getting away with the €50m fine
for being part of a cartel.
Fyffes are much more risky as they are extremely illiquid.

skywalker · 17-10-2008 11:48am

Thanks for the response, doing it through AIB online seems like a good option in terms of handiness, didnt realise that was an option.

Im literally just going to be buying 2 or 3 stocks & sitting on them for the long term so might go with that. Would I have access to shares like HSBC through them?

Baird · 17-10-2008 12:19pm

I would imagine you could buy anything you wanted within reason.
UK stocks Irish stocks, liquid US stocks should all be available but as i have no used
them i cant say that for sure.

eden_my_ass · 17-10-2008 12:38pm

Theres a huge amount of scaremongering going on here and on other forums about investing at the moment, much of which is pointless and non-constructive for two reasons; firstly the markets depend on emotion, fear makes people sell, fear makes people hold onto their cash and not reinvest, end result we work ourselves into a deeper recession/depression rather than just a correction which can be turned around over time; secondly, theres nothing worse than listening to the idle scaremongering of the uneducated masses online (and by that I mean no particular offence because I'm sure theres 'some' good heads on shoulders out there)...instead we should all watch and pay attention ONLY to those who have proved themselves worthy of being watched http://www.cnbc.com/id/27231171/

woodseb · 17-10-2008 12:41pm

eden_my_ass wrote: »

http://www.cnbc.com/id/27231171/

for a second there i thought you had linked to Jim Cramer:D

pocketdooz · 17-10-2008 1:08pm

eden_my_ass wrote: »

much of which is pointless and non-constructive for two reasons; firstly the markets depend on emotion, fear makes people sell, fear makes people hold onto their cash and not reinvest, end result we work ourselves into a deeper recession/depression rather than just a correction which can be turned around over time

Please return to reality

There are extremely good reasons to be scared of investing at the moment

Real reasons - not just 'fear' for its own sake.

The balance sheets of most major financial institutions are opaque and from what we have seen so far - in a terrible state

Wachovia, Citigroup and UBS between them have had to write down over $200 billion off their balance sheets so far. These are very real reasons not to be investing. Here are some more . . .

There is no liquidity in the credit market - it is much harder and much more expensive to obtain finance

The commercial loan market is trading at its lowest level ever - it's pricing in 40% defaults over the next 24 months and a 60% recovery rate - this has never been seen before.

LIBOR is basically no use anymore as a benchmark because Interbank lending had practiaclly seized up.

Oversupply of housing stock and historically low interest rates had caused an asset pricing bubble that is now being reversed and we are seeing a huge drop in the price of property in major economies around the world including (but limited to) the US, the UK, Spain etc.

Unemployment is rising fast across the Western economies, with Spain now leading the charge with 11% unemployment - this means less tax income, more governement expenditure which causes government deficits, causing them to borrow and burden themselves with additonal debt.

Stock markets across the globe have plummetted over the past 12 months as major investors have begun modelling how these leveraged companies will perform in an economic downturn and they don't like what they see.

Foreign funding for major infrastructure developments in the BRIC countries and Eastern Europe is drying up and the lack of capital inflows into these economies will cause huge volatility swings in their respective currencies over the near to medium term. (watch this closely)

And on and on . . .

People who think that we 'talk ourselves into a recession' have their head in the clouds and haven't the slightest cluse of what is actually going on in the global financial system and the wider global economy. They are the ones that will suffer the most over the next 2/3 years as they look around and moan and complain and blame and the rest of find value, invest and reap the rewards.

So, stop reading so much crap in the newspapers and start doing your own research.

And stop talking us into recession !!!

.

eden_my_ass · 17-10-2008 11:28pm

pocketdooz wrote: »

Please return to reality

There are extremely good reasons to be scared of investing at the moment

Real reasons - not just 'fear' for its own sake.

The balance sheets of most major financial institutions are opaque and from what we have seen so far - in a terrible state

Wachovia, Citigroup and UBS between them have had to write down over $200 billion off their balance sheets so far. These are very real reasons not to be investing. Here are some more . . .

There is no liquidity in the credit market - it is much harder and much more expensive to obtain finance

The commercial loan market is trading at its lowest level ever - it's pricing in 40% defaults over the next 24 months and a 60% recovery rate - this has never been seen before.

LIBOR is basically no use anymore as a benchmark because Interbank lending had practiaclly seized up.

Oversupply of housing stock and historically low interest rates had caused an asset pricing bubble that is now being reversed and we are seeing a huge drop in the price of property in major economies around the world including (but limited to) the US, the UK, Spain etc.

Unemployment is rising fast across the Western economies, with Spain now leading the charge with 11% unemployment - this means less tax income, more governement expenditure which causes government deficits, causing them to borrow and burden themselves with additonal debt.

Stock markets across the globe have plummetted over the past 12 months as major investors have begun modelling how these leveraged companies will perform in an economic downturn and they don't like what they see.

Foreign funding for major infrastructure developments in the BRIC countries and Eastern Europe is drying up and the lack of capital inflows into these economies will cause huge volatility swings in their respective currencies over the near to medium term. (watch this closely)

And on and on . . .

People who think that we 'talk ourselves into a recession' have their head in the clouds and haven't the slightest cluse of what is actually going on in the global financial system and the wider global economy. They are the ones that will suffer the most over the next 2/3 years as they look around and moan and complain and blame and the rest of find value, invest and reap the rewards.

So, stop reading so much crap in the newspapers and start doing your own research.

And stop talking us into recession !!!

.

So.....take advice from Warren Buffett, one of the worlds most successful and astute investors...or 'pocketdooz', that guy on the internet who says we're all fools for even thinking about investing right now...no offense but do you seriously think you can compete with that ? Btw, he also stressed that the financial markets are a mess, but thats not reason to discount investing in general.

edit: whos talking us into a recession btw, i said correction...

phantom_lord · 18-10-2008 12:34am

anyone that invests in banks because "they're cheap" deserves to lose their money imo.

Baird · 18-10-2008 11:02am

phantom_lord wrote: »

anyone that invests in banks because "they're cheap" deserves to lose their money imo.

Very very VERY true.
But in saying that, there is still serious value in some Irish banks if you are astute.

pocketdooz · 18-10-2008 2:28pm

eden_my_ass wrote: »

So.....take advice from Warren Buffett, one of the worlds most successful and astute investors...or 'pocketdooz', that guy on the internet who says we're all fools for even thinking about investing right now...no offense but do you seriously think you can compete with that ? Btw, he also stressed that the financial markets are a mess, but thats not reason to discount investing in general.

edit: whos talking us into a recession btw, i said correction...

In case you hadn't noticed - this is a thread about investing in AIB / BOI shares.

I don't remember reading about Warren Buffett investing in the common equity of AIB or BOI recently . . . .

Where did I say you or anyone is a fool for investing now - there is plenty of value out there - just not in Irish bank stocks or most country's financial stocks (IMO) . . . as I said in my post that you just quoted

"and the rest of find value, INVEST and reap the rewards."

If you have anything constructive to say it would be good to hear it.

Or maybe you could just provide more links to other people's opinions . . . :rolleyes:

daveirl · 18-10-2008 4:19pm

This post has been deleted.

pocketdooz · 19-10-2008 1:35am

daveirl wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

I agree 100 %

FTSE, S&P, DJIA and ISEQ ETF's

DJDC · 19-10-2008 1:11pm

Theres a huge amount of scaremongering going on here and on other forums about investing at the moment, much of which is pointless and non-constructive for two reasons; firstly the markets depend on emotion, fear makes people sell, fear makes people hold onto their cash and not reinvest, end result we work ourselves into a deeper recession/depression rather than just a correction which can be turned around over time; secondly, theres nothing worse than listening to the idle scaremongering of the uneducated masses online (and by that I mean no particular offence because I'm sure theres 'some' good heads on shoulders out there)...instead we should all watch and pay attention ONLY to those who have proved themselves worthy of being watched http://www.cnbc.com/id/27231171/

Idiotic Post. Good traders play the markets, not some underlying fundamental that decides prices. Technical analysis could be BS but if enough traders use it to take positions, well then its something that has to be taken into account.Likewise if fear has taken everywhere why go long on equities? The only moron around here is you, theres a lot more positions people can take then delta 1 long positions in equities.

There is value out there in some shares because they are essentially approaching ATM call options.

Slutmonkey57b · 19-10-2008 4:09pm

Long story short: in order for one person to be a smart investor, someone else has to be a moron. Buy low, sell high, requires someone else to sell low, buy high. Or have some people forgotten that? Buying stocks is not that much more scientific than betting on horses. Only bet with money you can stand to lose.

jack90210 · 19-10-2008 5:06pm

rugbyman wrote: »

I really enjoy learning about the theory and scientific stuff from Pocketdooz, Janets on clubs, Stepbar(lying low at moment) and Mr Mc Williams.

there are lots of people asking the same questions and they may not have read the earlier threads.

Some weeks ago i gave my opinion that there were fortunes to be made in all of this mayhem and being scientific was not the way to go.

With my childrens savings I invested 4,500. In week one I made a profit of 1200 euro.approx. ( bought Bof I at 4.40 sold at 5.60)

two weeks later i reinvested half the original amount in the same share at 3.96 and sold 36 hours later for 5.26 , a gain after costs of approx 500.

when they fell back to 3.89 I re invested 2 k and bought another 500 shares.
Sold them today at 4,72, realising a gain of ..83 per share , around 300 euro after costs and taxes.

I bought 1,000 shares in Ryanair at 2.38, failed to sell when up 600,then 500, but will do when they reach that again.
Overall, my portfolio(scoff if you like) is up from 4,500 to 6,500 in eight weeks. reach for the abacus and see what % return that is.
Tonight it is almost all back in cash

Guys who probably dont post on Boards have made hundreds of times more than I have. a Roller coaster can occasionally be a good ride.

Your going to lose your shirt. Idiotic stuff really.

pocketdooz · 19-10-2008 5:24pm

Slutmonkey57b wrote: »

Long story short: in order for one person to be a smart investor, someone else has to be a moron. Buy low, sell high, requires someone else to sell low, buy high. Or have some people forgotten that? Buying stocks is not that much more scientific than betting on horses. Only bet with money you can stand to lose.

Probably the least insightful and most blatantly wrong post I have read in the past while.

Slutmonkey57b · 19-10-2008 6:15pm

Selling a stock at a peak doesn't require anyone to buy it at a peak? Wow. You mean you can sell your stock without anyone else buying it? Amazing stuff. Which broker sells these magic shares? Where do I sign up for this? I assume you don't mean that this is under-informed part of the post.

I trust brokers to be able to tell me what's going on in the market six months ago. Anything else is (often ill-informed) speculation based on what the rest of the sheep are doing.
Case in point:
http://www.editorsweblog.org/multimedia/2008/09/us_tribune_blame_googlebot_for_united_ai.php

Stock plummets 70% because brokers don't bother to check the validity of a google news story and go on a massive panic selling spree based on what they see the other sheep brokers doing.

Given how easy it is to fix horse races, yes, betting on horses is at least as scientific as underinformed betting on whether stocks are going up or down in the current climate.

pocketdooz · 20-10-2008 9:02am

Slutmonkey57b wrote: »

Selling a stock at a peak doesn't require anyone to buy it at a peak? Wow. You mean you can sell your stock without anyone else buying it? Amazing stuff. Which broker sells these magic shares? Where do I sign up for this? I assume you don't mean that this is under-informed part of the post.

I trust brokers to be able to tell me what's going on in the market six months ago. Anything else is (often ill-informed) speculation based on what the rest of the sheep are doing.
Case in point:
http://www.editorsweblog.org/multimedia/2008/09/us_tribune_blame_googlebot_for_united_ai.php

Stock plummets 70% because brokers don't bother to check the validity of a google news story and go on a massive panic selling spree based on what they see the other sheep brokers doing.

Given how easy it is to fix horse races, yes, betting on horses is at least as scientific as underinformed betting on whether stocks are going up or down in the current climate.

No personal offense meant - but it seems pretty obvious to me that you don't really understand much about the subject. Maybe you should start by learning about market makers, exchange liquidity, stop losses, company fundamentals etc.

Your references to horse racing and google stories and blogs are just ridiculous.

eden_my_ass · 20-10-2008 10:16am

DJDC wrote: »

Idiotic Post. Good traders play the markets, not some underlying fundamental that decides prices. Technical analysis could be BS but if enough traders use it to take positions, well then its something that has to be taken into account.Likewise if fear has taken everywhere why go long on equities? The only moron around here is you, theres a lot more positions people can take then delta 1 long positions in equities.

There is value out there in some shares because they are essentially approaching ATM call options.

No need for nasty names now, we're all entitled to our say, sorry if I hit a nerve. Technical Analysis is all well and good, but lets face it, it was the very fact that we've more bad traders than good that overinflated many markets, and ok maybe it was my bad to post a general comment in a bank specific thread but I stand by what I said about emotion in the markets. Case in point your anger at my post, why anger, I didn't insult you, your family or kick your dog....people need to sit back and be cold and calculating, the fact that even in this simple thread that hasn't happened goes to prove the point. And then we're to take advice from the same hotheads? As pocketdooz said I didn't even post my take on whether to invest or not, I simply pointed to a far wiser head than mine, which I think is a perfectly valid thing to do by the way, since at least we all know whos giving the advice, not like here!

DJDC · 20-10-2008 10:21am

No need for nasty names now, we're all entitled to our say, sorry if I hit a nerve. Technical Analysis is all well and good, but lets face it, it was the very fact that we've more bad traders than good that overinflated many markets, and ok maybe it was my bad to post a general comment in a bank specific thread but I stand by what I said about emotion in the markets. Case in point your anger at my post, why anger, I didn't insult you, your family or kick your dog....people need to sit back and be cold and calculating, the fact that even in this simple thread that hasn't happened goes to prove the point. And then we're to take advice from the same hotheads? As pocketdooz said I didn't even post my take on whether to invest or not, I simply pointed to a far wiser head than mine, which I think is a perfectly valid thing to do by the way, since at least we all know whos giving the advice, not like here!

I think you missed my point. I didnt like the way you were insinuating that people who didnt go long on equities were somehow being scaremongered into their decision.I am saying its a rational decision based on the likelihood of what decisions other traders are going to make.

eden_my_ass · 20-10-2008 10:32am

DJDC wrote: »

I think you missed my point. I didnt like the way you were insinuating that people who didnt go long on equities were somehow being scaremongered into their decision.I am saying its a rational decision based on the likelihood of what decisions other traders are going to make.

We're a society who live and thrive on communication, the majority of modern society live under the influence of the mass media, whose controlling powers we're not many of us aware of. Sounds like I'm starting a conspiracy theory there, but I'm not, take the Eircom flotation as a case in point where people were emotionally played to invest, technical analysis went out the window mainly cause a lot of those who got involved wouldn't know a pie chart from an apple crumble

To think the same human weaknesses aren't causing this current crisis is ignoring the obvious, and all I'm saying is that if you want to talk about the banks being a bad buy, maybe show your analysis to say that they are now STILL overpriced and not likely to rise in the coming months or years...I don't deny they're in a ****e state some of them but put a measure on that and then see whether they're a definite no-no. After that though, let people back whatever they want, its their cash to lose at the end of the day

Time Magazine · 20-10-2008 11:53am

DJDC wrote: »

The only moron around here is you

Glad to see the two of you have cleared the air a bit, but attack the post and not the poster. We're all grown-ups so hopefully we can take a strong attack on our points but, similarly, hopefully we can all still be polite.

Slutmonkey57b wrote: »

Long story short: in order for one person to be a smart investor, someone else has to be a moron. Buy low, sell high, requires someone else to sell low, buy high. Or have some people forgotten that? Buying stocks is not that much more scientific than betting on horses. Only bet with money you can stand to lose.

Long story short: you're wrong. Slutmonkey Enterprises is currently trading at 10c a share, based on its claims that it's going to invent a new way of travelling from Dublin to Paris. If, in a week's time, it reveals that it has successfully invented a teleporter, it is now a far richer company than it was last week. Its profits are going to soar. Its share price will rise.

Nothing moronic at all.

Baird · 20-10-2008 1:33pm

The stock markets are not a zero sum gain, they create wealth for people. This does
not mean that someone has to lose money for other to gain. A bull run everyone can
gain, a bear run everyone loses in some shape or form.
For someone to say that if someone makes money going long that someone has to be
short honestly hasnt a clue what they are talking about.
Slutmonkey57b to be honest i would be embarrassed if i posted something along the
lines of what you just said.

Slutmonkey57b · 20-10-2008 7:41pm

pocketdooz wrote: »

No personal offense meant - but it seems pretty obvious to me that you don't really understand much about the subject. Maybe you should start by learning about market makers, exchange liquidity, stop losses, company fundamentals etc.

Your references to horse racing and google stories and blogs are just ridiculous.

Questions then:

Did the story linked above actually occur?
Is it accurate or inaccurate?
Does it show brokers in a positive or negative light?

You can be dismissive of it all you like, but it still happened. Traders saw a story on Bloomberg, picked from Google, auto-harvested from a smalltown nobody paper where a peon intern hit the wrong button, and didn't take a couple of seconds to check the date on the original article, and a company had its stock price tanked as a result. The stock market is not as scientific, analytical, or well researched as the people who make a living working in it like to make out. Ultimately, it's more about sentiment and watching what the rest of the herd are up to. I understand perfectly that someone who works in the financial industry is not likely to admit that, but I don't expect them to.

The stock market relies on idiots and sheep doing what you expect them to do, in order for the system to work. Bookies are well aware of this phenomenon. Guys that fix races don't have to worry about it at all.

daveirl · 20-10-2008 7:59pm

This post has been deleted.

woodseb · 21-10-2008 9:22am

Slutmonkey57b wrote: »

Questions then:

Did the story linked above actually occur?
Is it accurate or inaccurate?
Does it show brokers in a positive or negative light?

it happened all right but the reaction in the market was entirely rational given the facts - bloomberg is a trusted news source and they were at fault not the market. Traders cannot afford to check the source of every headline and need to react instantly to new facts - it's called the efficient market. your example proves absolutely nothing about sentiment and your other statements also show you have a poor understanding of the market tbf

Good time to buy AIB or BOI shares???

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