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The Arc

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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    SNA was about an 8/1 shot two runs ago.He'll be the ascot gold cup winner next year I rekon


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    UrbanSea wrote: »
    SNA was about an 8/1 shot two runs ago.He'll be the ascot gold cup winner next year I rekon
    If Fame and Glory retires, it's almost a certainty that SNA will be Coolmores Gold Cup horse for 2012. He already looks an out an out stayer who likes firm ground and has the Class to compete in the top 1m4f GP1 races. He will be a very short price to win at Ascot if he ends up going there.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 60 ✭✭Montjeu


    St. Nicholas Abbey was given a good prominent ride which is what he requires to show his ability. He travelled superbly but just faltered inside the last furlong or so as he lacks a strong turn of foot, similar to Seville imo.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,330 ✭✭✭Morgans


    I often think that Ballydoyle gets unfairly criticised for overhyping their horses. I have seen nothing in Europe to suggest So You Think deserves the acclaim he has been getting this year. He has looked laboured in all starts.

    If the race was run tomorrow, and Danedream wasnt favourite, i would have to collect wheelbarrows to get on.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 60 ✭✭Montjeu


    He is a very good horse over 10f, but not a great horse. I don't think we will see him have a go at 12f again. When he was beaten by Rewilding over a mile and a quarter, who's primary trip was 12f, it was clear to most he wasn't the superstar as suggested from the Coolmore hype machine.

    Something which I did find very ignorant in the race was sending Treasure Beach off as pacemaker like he was in the July Cup. It was bad enough letting a group 1 winner be pacemaker but the fact nobody chased due to the ridiculous pace makes it even more sickening (for lack of a better word).


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  • Registered Users Posts: 145 ✭✭nungesser


    you said it Montjeu! what a waste of Treasure Beach! I backed him and was absolutely disgusted! looking in the paper today at the list of top flat horses in Britain an Ireland this is based on prize money and who tops the list...Treasure Beach! second in the English Derby, winner of the Irish Derby, winner of the Secretariat Stakes at Arlington! and to be thrown away as a pace maker! I have a lot of respect for Aiden O'Brien but to use this horse to set up his others or make his one dimensional jockey of a son have a shot at winning just enrages me! thanks for letting me vent, i must hand it to Frankie though for being the only jockey from our side of the channel that put his horse in suitable position during the race to have a shot at winning it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,351 ✭✭✭✭Harry Angstrom


    It was one of the strangest races I've seen in a long while. Coolmore have never been renowned for winning races by using pacemakers. In fact, most of the time they fack it up big-time, such as this year's Grand Prix De Paris and the Prince of Wales's at Ascot. Even going back to when Godolphin beat them in the Irish Champion Stakes with Grandera and Fantastic Light, Coolmore's ability to employ pacemakers properly is laughable. WTF was Treasure Beach going off so quick for? It's not as if So You Think was crying out for a pacemaker at his first try over a mile and a half in Europe, and Saint Nicholas Abbey had to improve to win it. Thanks to TB, the winner ended up breaking the track record. Maybe they can put that on Treasure Beach's CV when he goes to stud? ;)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,173 ✭✭✭hucklebuck


    dave3004 wrote: »
    Poor Arc though. SYT and Snow Fairy to take outta it.

    I think that is unfair on Galikova, if she stays in training she could be very good. Peslier stuck her head into gaps that weren't there twice and she got snatched up. At the business end Peslier started scrubbing away and was in company with and tracking Snow Fairy and Danedream when Peslier tried to follow them on the rail and ended up getting pinned in by the badly weakening Treasure Beach.

    I think she would have been bang there if Peslier had followed Snow Fairy and Danedream. She lost about 6 lengths and nearly stopped at the 300 mark due to the problem with Treasure Beach.

    I don't understand people taking away from Danedream, she won it well and is an improving horse at the right time.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Why they used TB as a pacemaker is beyond me. Why not use any one of the many mediocre horses in the yard? My favourite horse this year he is


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    UrbanSea wrote: »
    Why they used TB as a pacemaker is beyond me. Why not use any one of the many mediocre horses in the yard? My favourite horse this year he is
    He's obviously very good at it, as it was the fastest Arc ever and it gave the yard a 4th and 5th place finish. It wont do the horses stud career any harm to show what speed he has either. Look at Cape Blanco he made the pace for Canford Cliffs and went on to win 3 Gp1s.

    The three that finished in front of the O'Brien horses were fillies, so Coolmores two colts enhanced their stud potential at the expense of the rest of the potential sires in the race.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,013 ✭✭✭kincsem


    Just a little info for future years. The winner ran a record time. She and the previous record holder, Peintre Celebre (by the miler Nureyev), came from stall 2, both won by five lengths.

    One of the French trainers said Longchamp has clay soil. So what? You might say all soil is clay. Clay soils are a soil type that when dry form a rock hard surface that often cracks. Clay soils when wet are very heavy and sticky. My garden is clay. I broke a fork prong once when it was hard. When it is soft it clings to boots in big clumps and you could lose a boot in it.

    There is a marked advantage to horses drawn low when the ground is fast on the Arc track as they are turning right for much of the race. A 10f horse will do alright imo.

    All I'm saying is the state of the ground and the draw number at Longchamp are much more important than at other tracks.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,013 ✭✭✭kincsem


    While I'm aftertiming I'll point out something else.

    If you compare the Arc times with the winner's stall draw from 1991 to 2011 you get a +0.593 Pearson coefficient.
    This is a very high number, and I think I'll extend the sample back before 1991 to see if it holds for a bigger sample.

    What does that mean? A Pearson number can be from -1 to +1.
    If I was predicting a five horse race -
    ... my 1,2,3,4,5. They finish 1,2,3,4,5 is a +1.00.
    ... my 1,2,3,4,5. They finish 5,4,3,2,1 is a -1.00 (my prediction is totally wrong)
    ... my 1,2,3,4,5. They finish 2,3,1,5,4 is a +0.60.

    If you could tell beforehand the finishing time of the Arc you would have an indication of how important a low draw would be. Fast time gives a low draw winner.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 349 ✭✭shy-tall-knight


    I actually found it slightly offensive to use Treasure Beach, a horse of such great quality as a pacemaker. I see they have Windsor Palace in as a pacemaker for the champion stakes, what would have been wrong with using him in the arc as they have done with the likes of Set Sail and Visian D'etait in the past? I had backed treasure beach so perhaps I'm speaking through my pocket but even disregarding that, he deserved to be ridden with the intention of giving him a chance, makes a mockery of races like the Irish Derby imo seeing him reduced to the role of a pacemaker for So You Think who is possibly or at least was, the most overrated horse on the planet. A fact the aussies cannot accept, the stick Seamus Heffernan has got from the Aussie media is ridiculous, couldn't have ridden him much better I think and I certainly don't think Steven arnold would have done any better contrary to australian beliefs,


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Shy you're mixing up Vision D'Etat up with Grand Ducal. VD wasn't a ballydoyle horse.

    Still can't believe treasure beach was used as a pacemaker. I backed him for the Derby when everone was saying he was going to be a pacemaker,bull ****,they were never going to put a Chester Vase winner in to set pace.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,232 ✭✭✭meriwether


    UrbanSea wrote: »
    Why they used TB as a pacemaker is beyond me. Why not use any one of the many mediocre horses in the yard? My favourite horse this year he is

    Because as Andre Fabre pointed out, a horse who can be let off ahead because he is useless is not a pacemaker. He is a useless horse running freely.

    A horse can only be used as a pacemaker if he is too good to be given a soft lead. Think Scorpion.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,232 ✭✭✭meriwether


    Morgans wrote: »
    Why wouldnt the winner confirm form over the same conditions?

    Could have been called the winner from a long way out. Just the horse improving most at the right time. No fluke. Winner by a long margin. Valuable filly now, hope she will be kept in training.

    I didn;t say she wouldn't.

    However the fact that she ran the fastest time ever points out an anomaly, that anomaly being, in my opinion, fast ground.

    The sun was splitting the stones in Paris in the week before.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    meriwether wrote: »
    Because as Andre Fabre pointed out, a horse who can be let off ahead because he is useless is not a pacemaker. He is a useless horse running freely.

    A horse can only be used as a pacemaker if he is too good to be given a soft lead. Think Scorpion.

    Treasure Beach is hardly useless.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 60 ✭✭Montjeu


    UrbanSea wrote: »
    Treasure Beach is hardly useless.

    I think that is his point. If AOB used a mediocre horse as pacemaker he would be totally ineffective as nobody would chase knowing he will eventually come back to them.

    The point of using TB as pacemaker was to ensure he was chased as he would be too dangerous to give a big enough lead. (I'm not saying I believe this is true just clarifying meriweather's point.)

    Ultimately it didn't matter as TB was sent off at a ridiculous pace and any jockey worth his salt knew not to chase.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,330 ✭✭✭Morgans


    meriwether wrote: »
    I didn;t say she wouldn't.

    However the fact that she ran the fastest time ever points out an anomaly, that anomaly being, in my opinion, fast ground.

    The sun was splitting the stones in Paris in the week before.

    So genuinely good ground she would finish where?

    Mid pack?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,173 ✭✭✭hucklebuck


    Anomoly? Very harsh on Danedream, plus ignoring the fact she has won on good, good to soft and very soft is irrelevant?

    Interesting article in the racing post this week on her sire, Lomitas - he was a wild un and got banned from racecourses for violent conduct so they had to get Monty Roberts to sort him out.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,232 ✭✭✭meriwether


    Morgans wrote: »
    So genuinely good ground she would finish where?

    Mid pack?

    Firstly, lets be clear that you asked me why the filly wouldn't win again under similar conditions.

    I replied that I never said she wouldn't.

    Now you are asking me where she would finish if conditions changed. I don't know.

    I am making the point however that conditions, in my opinion, contributed to the result, the result being the fastest time ever run in the Arc, and a number of fancied horses running badly. The main condition being fast ground.

    If you don't believe that altering conditions, especially ground, can alter results, thats fine. I do.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,330 ✭✭✭Morgans


    I do, but altering the conditions slightly, will alter the result slightly. I cant remember too many more conclusive winners of the Arc.

    And there are many trying to excuse their incorrect suppositions before the Arc with the result after, by downgrading the winner.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,232 ✭✭✭meriwether


    Morgans wrote: »
    I do, but altering the conditions slightly, will alter the result slightly. I cant remember too many more conclusive winners of the Arc.

    And there are many trying to excuse their incorrect suppositions before the Arc with the result after, by downgrading the winner.

    I wouldn't see a slight change in conditions altering the result, but I could see the course record not being achieved.

    The course record is the real sticking point for me.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,330 ✭✭✭Morgans


    Why?

    I dont think anyone is claiming Danedream is the greatest arc winner because of the course record. I dont think it was a great arc, but I think that it was very conclusive who the best horse was, and she might even be a very good winner of a poorish arc.

    The course record does prove that it was a strong pace on good/quick ground, but course records are often held by inferior animals.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    It's just possible that last years race wasn't all it was cracked up to be and this years 3y olds are simply a very good crop of horses. Nathaniel put the older horses in their place in the King George, Frankel did the same in the Sussex, Excelebration in the Moulin, Dream ahead did the same in the sprint division and took Goldikovas scalp over 7f in the Foret for good measure. Immortal Verse beat Goldikova in the Jaques le Marois, Moonlight cloud took the Daurice de Gheest and Misty for me thrashed Midday in the Pretty Polly .

    This year has seen an outstanding crop of 3y olds and one of them was entitled to beat the older horses in the Arc, it's just a pity it wasn't one that the punters were on.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,173 ✭✭✭hucklebuck


    It wasn't a great Arc this year, before it I was expected big things from the fillys as the colts didn't look that great on paper. Can't dispute Danedreams performance, if she stays in training she will be a great horse next year in my opinion.

    As for last years race, I don' think it was cracked up to be anything, it was quite a poor renewal and save for Workforce(after his Derby) there wasn't a really good horse in it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    hucklebuck wrote: »
    It wasn't a great Arc this year, before it I was expected big things from the fillys as the colts didn't look that great on paper. Can't dispute Danedreams performance, if she stays in training she will be a great horse next year in my opinion.
    She should be a very good horse all year but i would expect her to fail in an attempt at a second Arc. She's good but she ain't no Montjeu and even he wasn't good enough to do it 2 years in a row.
    As for last years race, I don' think it was cracked up to be anything, it was quite a poor renewal and save for Workforce(after his Derby) there wasn't a really good horse in it.
    Fair point, but Workforce was hyped for this years Arc based on his win in it last year. The same with Sarafina whose unlucky 3rd place last year was enough to make her favourite this year despite being much worse off at the weights.


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