Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium · 08-04-2015 6:41am

Wednesday, 8 April, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Hazy sunshine and warm, but slight risk of a shower in parts of Connacht. Some coastal areas could be foggy at times. Highs for most locations 15-18 C, light southerly breezes.

TONIGHT ... Clear except for some extensive high cloud, lows 3-7 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, warm, isolated showers may develop inland west and coastal fog may be dense at times especially along south coast. Highs 15-18 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks, more extensive coastal fog, isolated showers, morning lows 4-7 C and highs 13-16 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, colder, scattered showers more frequent in north and west, lows 2-4 C and highs 7-11 C.

SUNDAY ... Periods of rain likely, rather chilly compared to this week, lows about 4 C and highs about 9 C.

OUTLOOK ... Monday continuing rather cool but with a clearing trend, then somewhat warmer again by mid-week. Highs back into mid teens by then.

BRITAIN will see generally similar conditions, meanwhile across the central United States a fairly significant severe weather outbreak is developing, and could peak with tornadic storms by about Thursday.

I enjoyed some warm sunshine on my Easter holiday (further south where it was about 24 C), still sunny back home on Tuesday and about 14 C.

M.T. Cranium · 09-04-2015 6:31am

Thursday, 9 April, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... More hazy sunshine and warm temperatures for most, some dense fog likely near south coast, highs 16-19 C.

TONIGHT ... Hazy but generally clear, except for increasing cloud in parts of west and patchy coastal fog. Lows 4-7 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with sunny breaks but more persistent cloud in west followed by light rain at times during the late afternoon and evening. This front may become more active during the overnight hours. Highs 13-16 C.

SATURDAY ... Considerably cooler, morning showers, mid-day bright intervals allowing scattered hail showers to develop and release their hail or rain over some locations (more likely west and north) by afternoon. Morning lows about 7 C and afternoon highs 11-13 C.

SUNDAY ... Rain from early morning to about mid-day, then gradual clearing from west, but could remain wet to mid-afternoon in Leinster, also quite cold and some risk of snow mixing in at higher elevations. Temperatures from early morning in the steady rain only 6-9 C, but these could rise slightly in any clearing at least for western counties (highs could reach 12 C).

MONDAY ... Partial clearing but more rain may brush parts of northwest coast towards evening. Somewhat frosty inland, lows generally 0-3 C then highs near 13 C.

OUTLOOK ... Hazy but generally dry for a day or two, then increasing cloud, some chance of a heavy rainfall developing later in the week from a southerly direction. Highs all week may be slightly above normal in the 13-16 C range.

My local weather on Wednesday was ideal (but also for spreading pollen, unfortunately) with sunny skies and a high of 17 C.

M.T. Cranium · 10-04-2015 7:46am

Friday, 10 April, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... A few light showers in the southeast this morning should die out within a few hours, otherwise increasing high cloud will dim the sunshine but it will remain warm today at 15-18 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain will move steadily eastward giving 5-10 mm falls in most places, perhaps less in the southeast, then it will turn colder with temperatures about 10 C in the rain and 2-5 C by morning except in parts of the southeast which will remain 5-7 C.

SATURDAY ... Just a few lingering showers mainly in the north and northwest, where some could be wintry on higher slopes. Occasional sunshine should return to many areas mid-day and afternoon, then overcast by evening. Highs about 8 or 9 C.

SUNDAY ... Early morning rain may persist to mid-day and could bring 10 mm or higher amounts although the system is looking rather fragile on latest guidance and at some point it may begin to break apart into scattered showers, then eventually some clearing could spread into the western half of Ireland by late afternoon. Highs 7-9 C east, 10-13 C west as a result, after an overnight low near 4 or 5 C.

MONDAY ... Early morning frosts then hazy sunshine with a slight risk of showers near the Donegal bay coastlines. Lows -1 to +3 C, highs 11-14 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY are likely to return to warm, hazy and partly sunny conditions with highs 14-17 C.

LATER NEXT WEEK, guidance is rather inconclusive on timing but gradually cloud will increase and eventually rain is likely to spread in, first from the west but this will be light and sporadic, then from the south by about Sunday 19th or Monday 20th, at which time this rain may turn rather heavy. However, confidence in this outcome has to be moderate at best. What does seem more certain is that temperatures will trend down around the weekend of 18th-19th.

For BRITAIN, the outlook is similar although events will run about a half day later in general, so that Sunday will likely remain unsettled all day in most regions, although some dry intervals will develop as the system weakens.

Across much of eastern and central NORTH AMERICA there will be an outbreak of severe storms again today, probably most severe in the Ohio valley. It will remain very warm to the south of this frontal system with highs 25-30 C in many areas including Augusta, GA the site of the Masters golf tournament, where there could be some delays caused by thunderstorms today. Out west the weather remains warm and dry with sunshine expected in many areas. Colder and showery weather will hit by the weekend, however. My local weather on Thursday was sunny with a high near 16 C.

M.T. Cranium · 11-04-2015 7:04am

Saturday, 11 April, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Scattered rain or hail showers will be more frequent in Connacht, Ulster and west Munster, amounts will be generally less than 3 mm, and it will feel relatively cold at 8-10 C. Moderate southwest winds will gust to 60 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with rain spreading across the country from the southwest, heaviest from about north Kerry and south Clare towards Offaly and Meath, with 15 mm possible there. Smaller amounts 5-8 mm will be likely to south and also to north of this track. Temperatures may fall slightly in the evening to 2-5 C then rise to about 7-9 C.

SUNDAY ... Foggy with rain during the morning, but partial clearing in most western counties mid-day, late afternoon further east. Highs will range from about 7 C in north Leinster and east Ulster, to 12-14 C in west Munster.

MONDAY ... Isolated frost and morning lows -1 to +3 C, then cloudy intervals, some sunshine and a few isolated showers mainly in northwestern counties, warmer by afternoon with highs 13-15 C.

TUESDAY ... Hazy sunshine, warm, highs 17-20 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy, not quite as warm, possible light rain showers, and highs near 15 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, highs 14-16 C.

FRIDAY ... Light rain at times, mild, highs 13-15 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Variable skies but some intervals of moderate or heavy rain could develop over the weekend of 18th-19th and beyond, with temperatures close to normal values (13-15 C).

My local weather on Friday was cloudy and colder than previous days with light rain at times, highs only near 10 C.

M.T. Cranium · 12-04-2015 7:32am

Sunday, 12 April, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... While the south will start the day fairly mild and dry, most other regions will be cold and wet for a few more hours, but eventually this rain will move beyond the east coast by early afternoon and a partial clearance will follow from west to east. Highs will be 12-14 C in parts of the south, 11-13 C in the west, 8-11 C midlands and 7-9 C east, northeast and north. That is, unless the clearance is more pronounced in the east, in which case temperatures could recover to about 11-12 C by late afternoon. About 10-15 mm further rainfall will occur in north Leinster and east Ulster, those amounts have already fallen further west and only a slight further amount will be added before it starts to clear. Moderate southerly winds will veer more westerly in the warmer south. Meanwhile, there could be a touch of sleet or snow on hills around Sligo, Leitrim, Donegal, Derry and Tyrone.

TONIGHT ... Some dense fog may develop in valleys, and isolated frost could develop although lows will be rather variable due to patchy cloud cover. Lows will be in the range of -2 to +4 C.

MONDAY ... Hazy or cloudy at times, mostly dry with just a slight risk of showers or drizzle from low cloud (formerly sea fog) in the northwest. Warmer for most, highs 14-17 C.

TUESDAY ... Hazy sunshine, very warm with morning lows 5-8 C but highs soaring to about 19 or 20 C in many places inland, 12-15 C closer to coastlines but about 18 C in most of Dublin and coastal Wicklow.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with some sunny intervals, slight risk of a shower, still quite warm. Lows 8-11 C and highs 14-17 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloudiness, a few showers but some places staying dry with highs about 13-16 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, slight chance of showers but some light rain possible in coastal Kerry and southwest Cork. Highs about 15 C.

OUTLOOK ... The earlier guidance showing rain moving in from the south seems to have weakened to sporadic bursts of light rain from less powerful systems drifting in from the southwest, and could in fact be replaced by just a cooler but mainly dry easterly flow . This seems to be related to a gradual mid-Atlantic ridge building up that may eventually overpower this mild regime with a blast from the northwest, but this is far from certain yet. However, we can't rule out a few rather wintry days before the month is over, so the faster pace of spring may back off for a while before May begins. For now, would suggest the outlook for next weekend is a mix of cloud and sun, isolated showers, and highs near 14 C. Nights may be fairly chilly with isolated ground frost.

For BRITAIN today, this rainfall system will glide across north Wales and north-central England but will give only small or trace amounts of rain further south where it should be relatively warm in comparison. Temperatures will be about 15 to 17 C in the south, 10 to 12 C in the rain further north and 6-9 C in much of Scotland with risk of snow on hills there. Beyond today, the pattern will be quite similar to the forecast above.

Over most of NORTH AMERICA, a warm spring pattern has developed and there are fewer thunderstorms involved now. The Masters golf should enjoy a partly cloudy and very warm day (28 C). On the west coast, colder air has moved into most regions north of central California, and my local weather on Saturday was mostly cloudy and cool with morning showers that ended conveniently about 0930h. The high was about 11 C.

M.T. Cranium · 13-04-2015 7:19am

Monday, 13 April, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy but with some brighter intervals developing, patchy drizzle in parts of north should also ease to a few brief sprinkles, and amounts in general will be slight (trace to 2 mm). Warmer by afternoon with highs reaching 17 C inland south, 13 C north, 15 C east coast.

TONIGHT ... Hazy or misty at times, rather mild with lows only falling to 5-8 C even in the colder inland southeast, otherwise 8-10 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, warm except near some outer coasts and in parts of Ulster, highs generally 15-18 C and possibly 19 or 20 in some parts of inland south. Fog or mist may be persistent around some outer coastal headlands.

WEDNESDAY ... After another rather mild night with lows 7-10 C, a weak cold front dropping south will divide a warm south and cooler north, with the front reaching a Dublin to mid-Clare alignment mid-day. The front may contain a burst of moderate rain for an hour or two, giving 5-8 mm in some locations, but it should quickly clear after moving past, albeit with colder temperatures as highs in the south near 17 C will contrast with only 8-12 C in the north and within the frontal band itself.

THURSDAY ... Continuing rather cool from the passage of the earlier front, now well south of Munster, so that all regions will see lows of 3-5 C and a few locations as cold as 1-2 C, with highs reaching just 12 C or so in partly cloudy skies and a chilly northeast breeze.

FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals, morning frosts (lows -2 to +3 C) and afternoon highs 13 to 15 C. A few moderate gusts to around 50 km/hr from east at times near exposed coasts and likely to be warmer in Galway and Mayo than most other counties.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY should see further improvements in temperatures to around 17 C as the flow becomes more southeasterly, and frosts will become more isolated as the average overnight low will be around 5-7 C. The rain that had been discussed from earlier model guidance seems to be suppressed well to the south on most of today's model runs and it could be more of a slow increase in cloud from west during next week with a strong frontal system likely to develop mid-week followed by colder temperatures closer to the end of the month.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast with a few breaks, and some light rain has developed this evening. It was chilly with a high of about 10 C and there have been substantial snowfalls in the local mountains above 900m affecting some of the major highways into the central part of the province.

M.T. Cranium · 14-04-2015 6:58am

Tuesday, 14 April, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rather cloudy to start, some brighter intervals developing with sunshine more likely in west Munster and parts of south Leinster. Warmth will depend on how much sunshine breaks through of course, but highs should average about 15 C and some places will reach 17-18 C (most likely in the inland portions of west Munster, possibly coastal southeast). Slight amounts of drizzle could be recorded in a few parts of the north where highs may only reach 13 C.

TONIGHT ... Continued rather cloudy with light rain developing in parts of the northwest, lows about 5-8 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain will edge south but it won't last too long in any given location, perhaps three hours or so, during which time temperatures will fall from 12-15 C to about 8-10 C then when the front passes further south, it will clear partially but remain about the same (chilly) temperature. This will occur late enough in the south coastal counties that temperatures may stay relatively mild all day, then fall in the evening. About that time, the frontal rainfall band will weaken so that amounts of 5-8 mm further north will be reduced to 2-4 mm.

THURSDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, cool northeast breezes, morning lows 2-4 C and highs 10-12 C. Slight chance of isolated showers in Ulster and north Leinster.

FRIDAY ... Sunny with cloudy periods, continuing rather cool although somewhat milder in Connacht in light to moderate east winds. Morning frosts in a few inland areas, lows -1 to +3 C, then highs 11-14 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Continued dry, sunny at times, and a bit warmer, lows about 2-5 C and highs 13-16 C. Winds moderate east to southeast.

NEXT WEEK ... The easterly flow seems likely to continue, and may draw in somewhat moister air by mid-week, but eventually colder air from high latitudes may start mixing into a trough and drop temperatures a few degrees below normal by late in the week.

Over in BRITAIN, the pattern will be similar in Wales, north-central England and Scotland, but southern England will be warmer through Wednesday as the weak front will not arrive there until late at night or early Thursday, so that highs may reach 21-24 C in parts of south-central England by tomorrow.

In NORTH AMERICA the general trends are near normal in many parts, or slightly warmer than average, with weak frontal systems. It is somewhat cooler and more unsettled in the far west however. On Monday, my local weather was overcast with rain at times, and a few rather heavy bursts. Highs were only about 9 or 10 C.

M.T. Cranium · 15-04-2015 8:05am

Wednesday, 15 April, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rain will continue to edge south from its current location approximately north Dublin to south Clare, but it won't last too long in any given location, perhaps three hours or so, during which time temperatures will fall from 12-15 C (later this morning in southeast) to about 8-10 C then when the front passes further south, it will clear partially but remain about the same (chilly) temperature. This will occur around mid-day to afternoon in the south coastal counties where temperatures may stay relatively mild all day, and will then fall in the evening. About that time, the frontal rainfall band will weaken so that amounts of 5-8 mm likely this morning in central counties will be reduced to 2-4 mm. Areas further north will gradually clear later this morning and there may be a few sunny intervals by afternoon with cool northerly breezes and highs 8-10 C.

TONIGHT ... Drizzle for a part of the evening in south Leinster, otherwise clearing, and turning quite cold in most regions with isolated frost developing, lows -2 to +3 C.

THURSDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, cool northeast breezes, and highs 10-12 C. Slight chance of isolated showers in Ulster and north Leinster.

FRIDAY ... Sunny with cloudy periods, continuing rather cool although somewhat milder in Connacht in light to moderate east winds. Morning frosts in a few inland areas, lows -1 to +3 C, then highs 11-14 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Continued dry, sunny at times, and a bit warmer, lows about 2-5 C and highs 13-16 C. Winds moderate east to southeast. Temperatures generally highest in the western half of the country due to the easterly wind flow off the Irish Sea.

NEXT WEEK ... The easterly flow seems likely to continue, and may draw in somewhat moister air by mid-week, leading to more cloud at that time, but eventually colder air from high latitudes may start mixing into a trough and drop temperatures a few degrees below normal by late in the week. This may only happen after a couple of wet days late next week or around the weekend of 25th-26th.

As mentioned yesterday, southern England won't be into the colder air mass until late tonight and temperatures there today may top off around 23 C. After that, the forecast scenario above will begin to apply there, as it will from mid-day in northern parts of Britain.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny with distant showers visible by late afternoon, and it was quite breezy and cool with highs near 13 C.

M.T. Cranium · 16-04-2015 6:58am

Thursday, 16 April, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Some patchy cloud will persist in north-central counties, but the sun will get through at times there, and more frequently further south. It will be rather cool especially in the eastern third of the country due to light east winds from the Irish Sea. Highs will range from 10-13 C east, to 13-15 C west.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, scattered frost, lows -2 to +3 C.

FRIDAY ... The mixture of cloud and sun may gradually improve to mostly sunny skies by afternoon, but temperatures will remain similar, highs 10-13 in the east to 13-15 C west.

SATURDAY to about TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy or sunny for most, and slightly warmer, morning lows about 0-3 C and highs 11-14 C east, 14-17 C west.

LATER NEXT WEEK ... The dry spell could continue to about Friday but cloud is likely to increase somewhat later in the week, with temperatures staying in a similar range to the above. Eventually, rain is likely to edge in from the west, by about the weekend of 25th-26th.

My local weather on Wednesday was mostly cloudy with just very light drizzly rain in a few locations. The high was about 12 C.

M.T. Cranium · 17-04-2015 7:19am

Friday, 17 April, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy intervals with a few intervals of very light rain possible (mostly in east Ulster as well as south Leinster) but increasing chances of sunshine later, in a light to moderate easterly flow that will be rather cool in eastern counties (11-13 C), warmer further west (14-16 C).

TONIGHT ... Clear with a few cloudy intervals, cold, isolated frost likely again, lows -2 to +3 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny skies, moderate east-southeast winds, highs 12-14 C east, 14-17 C west.

SUNDAY ... Mostly sunny, morning frosts in a few inland locations, lows between -2 and +3 C, highs 13-15 C east, 15-18 C west.

MOST OF NEXT WEEK is looking similar, warm daytime temperatures somewhat modified near east coast, cool nights with a gradually reduced risk of frost, lows generally 2-5 C and highs mostly in the 15-19 C range although some east coast locations could be closer to 13-15 C especially north of Dublin. There could also be an interval of low cloud and drizzle in parts of Ulster around Tuesday as a weak front dies out near the north coast.

Eventually rain is likely to move in from the west. The latest estimate on that is towards end of next weekend or in the last (partial) week of the month and at that time it may turn a bit colder again.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny with a high near 15 C.

M.T. Cranium · 18-04-2015 7:24am

Saturday, 18 April, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

Astronomy note: New moon occurs today at 7:57 p.m. (6:57 p.m. Universal time) but no eclipse will take place.

TODAY ... Mostly sunny with a few cloudy intervals. Highs about 13-15 C east, 15-17 C west. Moderate east to southeast breezes with some gusts to about 50 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, isolated frost developing, lows -2 to +3 C.

SUNDAY ... Hazy sunshine, temperatures similar to today's trends, 13-15 C east and 15-18 C west.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers near east coast, warm. Lows about 4-6 C and highs 14-18 C, possibly near 20 C inland west.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy intervals, warm. Lows 4-7 C and highs 16-19 C.

OUTLOOK ... Little change through Friday, then cloudier skies and chances of rain increasing through the weekend of 25th-26th. Temperatures continuing somewhat above normal values daytime, 16-20 C.

My local weather on Friday was breezy but sunny with a pleasant high of about 17 C.

M.T. Cranium · 19-04-2015 7:40am

Sunday, 19 April, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny intervals, warming slowly this morning but eventually highs should reach 12-14 C east, 15-18 C west, in light east to southeast breezes. There could be some lingering mist or fog near outer coasts.

TONIGHT ... A few clear intervals inland west where lows 1-4 C, but cloudier eastern and central counties, lows 4-7 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, but brighter in parts of west especially by afternoon, while a few light showers may develop in eastern third, little accumulation expected. Highs 13-15 C east, 15-19 C west, in light to moderate southeast breezes.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY will continue rather warm and dry, with variable amounts of cloud or sunshine but little if any measurable rainfall, in light east to southeast winds. Highs each day about 15-18 C except somewhat cooler along east and south coasts. Nights could still bring a few isolated frosts.

FRIDAY and NEXT WEEKEND currently look rather wet as the high is now predicted to weaken rapidly on Thursday night to be replaced by areas of low pressure moving northeast to north. Temperatures will probably be about 14 to 16 C for most, but it may cool off further by late Sunday into Monday as winds become more northwesterly.

Although trends in Britain will be generally similar, eastern England will remain somewhat cooler and cloudier with the best temperatures in Wales, western England and parts of western Scotland.

Over much of North America, temperatures will be warm but in particular the western U.S. and adjacent parts of western Canada will be above normal by several degrees. My local weather on Saturday was sunny and warming up in the afternoon to about 18 C.

M.T. Cranium · 20-04-2015 7:11am

Monday, 20 April, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Morning light rain moving northwest through Ulster should be finished by mid-day but most other places will remain dry, with cloud breaking to partly sunny skies later today. It will be quite warm except close to east and south coasts due to onshore southeast breezes there. Highs for most about 16 to 19 C, but 12 to 14 C along exposed coasts.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy to clear, isolated ground frost inland west and central counties, lows -1 to +5 C.

TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals with some lingering mist or low cloud near some outer coasts in southwest. Highs for most will be 16-19 C, 13-15 C exposed coasts.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will continue dry and warm with highs around 17 or 18 C. Night-time lows will trend upward due to somewhat more cloud cover and a stronger breeze at times, 5-8 C.

FRIDAY will see a change to wet weather with 5-10 mm rain in many areas from a low moving through from the southwest, temperatures 14-16 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK is showery and somewhat cooler, highs 13-15 C. It may be even colder by Monday and Tuesday with the risk of sleety showers on high ground in northwesterly winds.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny and warm with highs near 21 C.

M.T. Cranium · 21-04-2015 6:56am

Tuesday, 21 April, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly cloudy with hazy sunshine at times, warm away from cooling sea breezes on east and south coasts, highs generally 15-18 C but 12-14 C in sea breezes. Some fog or low cloud near coasts.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy to clear, isolated frosts, lows -1 to +4 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will continue partly cloudy, hazy and generally warm, with local sea breezes on all coasts as wind gradients become rather light. Highs for most 15-18 C, but 11-14 C near exposed coasts. Overnight lows in the range of 2-6 C but with isolated ground frosts.

FRIDAY will see a change of pattern beginning with rain at times, highs for most regions 14-16 C, closer to 12 C in west Ulster. About 10 mm of rain is expected at this point.

SATURDAY will be variable and rather unsettled with thundery showers including hail, and cooler temperatures, highs near 11 or 12 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will be quite cold and unsettled with the risk of mixed wintry showers on higher ground, hail showers at lower elevations, and rather blustery northwest winds 50-80 km/hr. Highs will be in the 8-11 C range at best and overnight lows 2-5 C.

Beyond that, some indications of a rather strong late spring storm developing near the end of the month with strong easterly winds, but this may change closer to the actual time. Conditions are expected to become more seasonable into the first half of May.

My local weather on Monday was sunny and pleasantly warm with highs near 22 C.

(astronomy note, look for crescent new moon and Venus in the evening sky tonight, not a really close pairing but should be a good spectacle anyway).

M.T. Cranium · 22-04-2015 6:51am

Wednesday, 22 April, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Hazy sunshine, with some isolated enhanced cloud that seems likely to produce "virga" or showers aloft not reaching the ground. You may see some of this activity moving towards the northwest in south Leinster this morning. Rather warm (16-19 C) except near coastlines facing southeast with onshore sea breezes (12-15 C). One or two locations inland west could top out near 20 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear with a few cloudy intervals, lows 4-7 C.

THURSDAY ... Increasing cloud, a few isolated showers developing mostly inland north, somewhat more humid and continuing rather warm with highs about 17 or 18 C although sea breezes on most coasts could reduce highs locally to about 14 C.

FRIDAY ... Becoming overcast during the early morning, lows around 8 C. Then the day will be cloudy with outbreaks of light rain, heaviest in south Connacht, Clare, central to north Leinster and east Ulster where 10-15 mm possible. More showery further south where it will remain warm, 15-17 C, while highs in the steadier rain will be around 13-15 C.

SATURDAY ... Breezy to windy, colder, occasional showers or periods of rain, morning lows 2-5 C and afternoon highs 8-11 C. Winds northwest to north at 50-70 km/hr.

SUNDAY and MONDAY ... Windy and cold, passing showers of rain, hail or sleet (snow is possible on higher slopes). Isolated thunder. Morning lows about 2 C and afternoon highs 7-10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Frosty nights and cool days mid-week as high pressure builds again but highs only about 12-15 C.

The forecast for BRITAIN will be generally quite similar, although it won't start to rain in southern England until Friday evening or Saturday early morning.

Over most of NORTH AMERICA the weather is turning quite a bit colder than recent days, with upper level winds turning more northerly. My local weather on Tuesday started sunny, turned cloudy and then some light rain arrived this evening (local time) with a high of about 17 C but falling temperatures now.

M.T. Cranium · 23-04-2015 7:36am

Thursday, 23 April, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Morning mist followed by some hazy sunshine, continued rather warm, then Increasing cloud, with a few isolated showers developing mostly inland north, somewhat more humid 17 or 18 C for most, although sea breezes on most coasts could reduce highs locally to about 14 C.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy although some clear intervals in northeast, lows will range from 4-7 C there to 7-10 C in most other regions.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with outbreaks of light rain, heaviest in south Connacht, Clare, central to north Leinster and east Ulster where 10-15 mm possible. More showery further south where it will remain relatively warm, 15-17 C, while highs in the steadier rain to the north will be around 13-15 C.

SATURDAY ... Breezy to windy, colder, occasional showers or periods of rain, morning lows 2-5 C and afternoon highs 8-12 C. Winds northwest to north at 50-70 km/hr.

SUNDAY and MONDAY ... Windy and cold, passing showers of rain, hail or sleet (snow is possible on higher slopes). Isolated thunder. Morning lows about 2 C and afternoon highs 7-11 C.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers turning wintry on hills, cold. Lows 2-4 C and highs 8-11 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Frosty nights and cool days mid-week as high pressure builds again with more sunshine in west, cloudy in northerly flow across parts of Ulster, highs only about 12-15 C at best, possibly colder in some northern and eastern counties. This will be followed by rain and either slightly milder or similar temperatures (generally around 14 C) around the first of May.

Most of the above will apply to much of BRITAIN also, but Friday's rainfall may not arrive in the southeast until early morning Saturday. This will also delay the cooling trend to later Saturday in the south. Scotland, on the other hand, may run a degree or two colder than Ireland and see more widespread hill snowfalls by Sunday and Monday.

Over much of North America, the weather is turning quite chilly and warmth is now restricted to the desert southwest and Gulf coast states. My local weather on Wednesday was bright but rather cool at 10 C, with a lot of cloud building over the north shore mountains.

M.T. Cranium · 24-04-2015 7:35am

Friday, 24 April, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for a significant change to near-wintry conditions ... Details may change especially in the medium range, and the various models have slightly different evolutions of the mid-week mixed precipitation scenario, however there is little reason to doubt that temperatures will be well below average starting tomorrow.

TODAY ... Rain will move gradually further north and will become heavier by afternoon and evening in west-central to northeastern counties while tapering off to showers in the south. This will produce rainfalls of 10-15 mm further north and lesser amounts in the southeast. Highs 14-16 C in the south, about 12-14 C in the heavier rain and 10-12 C further north. Becoming foggy on hills in parts of the north.

TONIGHT ... Rain at times will begin to edge back to the south, but it may remain largely dry near the south coast, with rain starting back up again after midnight in central counties. Lows 5-8 C.

SATURDAY ... Northerly winds will filter colder air into the country with the rain moving slowly further south, and mostly cloudy conditions further north with a few showers turning wintry by later in the day over higher terrain in the north. Temperatures steady 8-10 C south, 6-9 C north. Feeling even colder in winds of 40-70 km/hr from the north.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, cold with wintry showers developing, snow on hills, sleet or hail at lower elevations although mostly rain showers near sea level especially along east and south coasts. Morning lows from -1 to +3 C and afternoon highs about 7 to 10 C.

MONDAY ... Mostly cloudy, very cold for late April, wintry showers possible with accumulations of 5-10 cm snow on some higher terrain in Connacht, west Ulster and higher mountains elsewhere. Morning lows -3 to +3 C and highs about 5 to 8 C in many places, 8-11 C south coast. Moderate northwest winds 40-70 km/hr adding further chill.

TUESDAY ... Continuing cold, breezy and very cold with mixed or wintry showers possible, some sunny intervals too, morning lows -3 to +3 C and afternoon highs 7-11 C.

WEDNESDAY into THURSDAY ... Some risk of a heavy rainfall with temperatures cold enough for sleet or snow on hills, temperatures continuing very low for this time of year (4-7 C on average). The low may track across the southeast making the mixed precipitation heavier in those counties especially on east-facing slopes of Wicklow Mountains.

There are indications of a prolonged spell of rather cold weather following on, with the average about 4 degrees below normal values on guidance for the first half of May. Winds will continue from a northerly to northeasterly direction in that period.

For BRITAIN, most of this rather nasty spell of weather will materialize by later today or tonight in southern regions, and eventually it may become even more wintry than in Ireland as both the late weekend disturbance and the mid-week storm look capable of dropping heavy wet snow in parts of Wales and central to northern England. The main question will be the dividing line by elevation between cold rain and accumulating snow, at the moment this appears to be about 200 metres above sea level.

Meanwhile, my local weather was rather cloudy with outbreaks of light rain and it felt very cold at about 8 or 9 C.

M.T. Cranium · 25-04-2015 7:51am

Saturday, 25 April, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Intervals of rain will slowly spread back to the south, with amounts of about 10-15 mm likely for the south, 5-10 mm further in central counties. The north will see partial clearing with development of mixed showers, hail and some sleet quite possible as temperatures there will be holding at about 6 to 9 C. In the south, temperatures will slowly decline from current values to about 10 or 11 C. Moderate northerly winds will develop, stronger near the west coast than elsewhere (some gusts to 70 km/hr). It will feel much colder than most of last week (except where sea breezes made it cold).

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, rain ending gradually in the south coastal counties, mixed wintry showers possible especially on higher ground. Lows about 1 to 3 C with isolated frost.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will both be quite cold with mostly cloudy skies, brief sunny intervals, and scattered wintry showers. An interval of heavier snow showers may bring 5-10 cms to hills in north Connacht and west Ulster, but closer to sea level any snow will likely melt quickly or on contact, as highs will be in the 5-8 C range (10-11 C south coast). Most hills will probably see coverings of snow at times, most larger cities and coastal areas may see brief appearances but some places will not, most likely south coast. Rain showers and some thunder or hail will also be in the mix. Overnight lows on Monday morning will be about -2 C inland central, near +2 C coastal locations. Winds during this cold spell will be moderate west to northwest 40-70 km/hr.

TUESDAY will continue fairly similar after morning lows near -2 C inland, +2 C coastal, although a degree or two milder than Monday by mid-day, which will push the snow line further up in hilly areas, and make more of the showers rain, but with highs 8-11 C it will continue to be quite chilly,

WEDNESDAY is looking showery and there could be a spell of heavy rainfall if low pressure tracks across the southeast. Guidance has swirled around in the past day with models changing sides on this, so it's a wait and see outcome, but we can be sure it will remain rather cool and some snow could fall on at least summits if not somewhat closer to sea level, with highs 8-10 C at best.

THURSDAY could provide a brief respite with some sunshine possible and morning frost, but highs 10-13 C.

OUTLOOK for FRIDAY to SUNDAY (1st to 3rd of May) is for somewhat milder temperatures but risk of moderate or heavy rainfall at times, highs 13-15 C. Following that, some indications of a return to very chilly temperatures and mixed precipitation again.

This scenario basically applies to most of BRITAIN also, with somewhat milder temperatures in southeast England but even colder and more chance of snow in northwest England and Scotland.

My local weather has followed the same trend, with Friday a miserable cold day with hail showers, bursts of quite heavy rainfall and temperatures near 10 degrees between showers, but around 5 C when the hail was heavy. It is somewhat warmer east of the Rockies, but most areas of the continent have seen a drop in temperatures recently to below normal values.

M.T. Cranium · 26-04-2015 7:39am

Sunday, 26 April, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for wintry showers and some accumulations of snow especially on higher ground in Connacht and Ulster, but occasionally in other locations, from Sunday afternoon to Tuesday morning. Sharp frosts will also occur inland.

TODAY ... Sunny this morning in most of eastern and southern counties, as wintry showers gradually develop over the north and west. These will begin to release a mixed bag of hail, rain and snow over many parts of Connacht and Ulster by afternoon, and some will drift further south and east. Highs may reach 8-11 C but temperatures will tend to fall during heavy showers. The total precipitation from these will vary from 5-10 mm in northwest, to trace amounts near south coast. Moderate northwest winds will add some chill especially near the northwest coasts.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals with sharp frost developing inland, as the wintry showers become more confined to hills in northwest. Lows -3 to +3 C.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, frequent wintry showers with some significant accumulations of snow likely above 100 metres above sea level in Connacht and Ulster. Hail and rain showers, some thunder also, in the mix. Very cool for late April, highs 5-9 C. Moderate westerly winds 50-70 km/hr adding to the chill.

TUESDAY ... Little change with just a slight upturn in temperatures taking the rain-snow dividing line upslope a little (to about 250 metres) and frequent mixed showers, cool in westerly winds, lows -3 to +3 C and highs 7-10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Frequent showers, or periods of rain, rather gusty winds from west veering northwest later, morning lows 2-5 C and highs 7-11 C. About 10 to 15 mm rain in some areas, winds gusting to 80 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... Some sunny intervals at times, isolated showers, morning lows about 2 C and highs 8-11 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY will remain mostly cloudy with occasional rain, highs around 12 to 14 C.

NEXT WEEK could see another interval of wintry conditions returning with strong winds and temperatures well below average (estimating 7-9 C at this point).

Over most of BRITAIN, similar inclement conditions will develop, although southern England will not see too much of this before mid-week, despite it being rather cool. Eventually very strong winds are indicated for parts of eastern England and Scotland as deep lows form over the North Sea.

My local weather on Saturday was mostly cloudy with outbreaks of hail and rain, highs only near 9 C.

M.T. Cranium · 27-04-2015 7:10am

Monday, 27 April, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Variable cloud, frequent showers, becoming wintry at times in Connacht and Ulster (and on higher terrain elsewhere) with some significant accumulations of snow likely above 150 metres above sea level in Connacht and Ulster. Hail and rain showers, some thunder also, in the mix. Very cool for late April, highs 6-10 C. Moderate westerly winds 50-70 km/hr adding to the chill. South and east, not as much sunshine as yesterday although a few bright intervals, more frequent (mixed) showers developing.

TONIGHT and TUESDAY ... Little change with just a slight upturn in temperatures taking the rain-snow dividing line upslope to about 250-300 metres above sea level, and frequent mixed showers, some thundery with hail, continued cool in westerly winds, lows -3 to +3 C with scattered frost, and highs 7-11 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Frequent showers, or periods of rain, rather gusty winds from west veering northwest later, morning lows 2-5 C and highs 7-11 C. About 10 to 15 mm rain in some areas, winds gusting to 80 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... Some sunny intervals at times, isolated showers, morning lows about 2 C and highs 8-11 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY will remain mostly cloudy with occasional rain, possibly heavy at times, highs 11 to 13 C.

NEXT WEEK may start out fairly mild (14-15 C with showers) but will then see another interval of colder conditions returning with strong winds and temperatures well below average (estimating 7-9 C at this point).

Similar outlook for BRITAIN and in fact snow may be quite widespread on hills today to Wednesday in Scotland and northern England. On the other hand, highs may reach 12 or 13 C in the London area. But hail showers with some thunder and gusty winds could hit anywhere over the week.

Much of NORTH AMERICA remains on the colder side of normal too, with outbreaks of heavy rain in the southeast. My local weather on Sunday was mostly overcast with the sun dimly visible, about 14 C, but light rain has begun since sunset. We're expecting somewhat warmer weather here during the week (18-20 C).

M.T. Cranium · 28-04-2015 7:20am

Tuesday, 28 April, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, occasional showers but longer periods of rain by late afternoon and evening, 8-15 mm can be expected, and rather strong southwest winds at times gusting to 80 km/hr will add considerable chill to the afternoon temperatures which will peak at about 10 C. Snow will only be seen on higher slopes as somewhat warmer air moves in at higher elevations. However, hail showers could develop and leave brief coatings.

TONIGHT ... Showers will clear for a while, becoming quite cold with isolated frost possible, lows -1 to +3 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Increasing cloud during the morning will rapidly lead to showers then further periods of rain, 10 mm on average. Highs 10-12 C in gusty west to northwest winds (peak gusts 90 km/hr).

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy with just a few isolated showers and longer sunny intervals, cloud will return from southwest later in the afternoon for parts of west Munster. Morning lows -2 to +4 C and highs 8-10 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy, intervals of drizzle or light rain, morning lows 4-7 C and afternoon highs 10-12 C in moderate east to southeast winds.

WEEKEND to MONDAY outlook is for very unsettled and possibly stormy conditions by the end of the period as low pressure gradually develops near Cork and moves slowly north into Connacht by early Tuesday. This may bring some substantial rainfalls especially Sunday-Monday, and strong winds by Monday night into Tuesday as the low continues to deepen and move off towards western Scotland. Southwest winds veering westerly could gust as high as 110 km/hr at least. Temperatures all weekend will be somewhat improved over this week at about 13-15 C. Once this storm moves away, a slightly colder northwest flow will set in but this will likely be replaced by mild and cloudy conditions before the week is finished.

My local weather on Monday featured a classic warm frontal passage, something we don't see all that often, it was foggy and drizzly all morning then the sun came out and temperatures soared towards 19 C. I'm expecting the reverse sequence today with a cold front approaching.

M.T. Cranium · 29-04-2015 7:11am

Wednesday, 29 April, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Increasing cloud, as showers already underway in parts of Connacht spread gradually across other regions by mid-day. Some heavier showers or longer periods of rain are likely, 8-15 mm will fall in most places. Winds becoming fresh to strong southwesterly veering later to west then northwest, squally showers may develop with the windshift. Highs about 10 or 11 C.

TONIGHT ... Showers more isolated and dying out, but remaining rather cloudy, cold with risk of a few showers becoming wintry over higher parts of the north. Lows -1 to +3 C. Winds continuing rather strong at NW 40-60 km/hr with stronger gusts near west coast.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy but with decent sunny intervals developing by afternoon, showers more isolated. Cool and breezy (NW to N 30-50 km/hr) with highs 8-11 C. Cloudy by late afternoon near south coast.

FRIDAY ... Mostly cloudy, outbreaks of light rain, lows 3-7 C and highs about 11 or 12 C. About 5-10 mm rain likely.

SATURDAY ... Continuing cloudy and damp with heavier rain in west during the morning, then becoming more scattered in variable conditions by afternoon. Moderate southeast winds, lows 5-8 C and highs 10-13 C. About 10 to 15 mm rain likely.

SUNDAY ... Outbreaks of heavy, showery rain and risk of some thunderstorm activity, a bit warmer and more humid. Lows 8-10 C and highs 13-15 C. A further 10-20 mm rain likely.

MONDAY ... Breezy to windy at times, showers but some sunny breaks developing. Lows 4-7 C and highs 12-14 C. About 5 mm rain likely.

OUTLOOK ... Continued unsettled most of the week, with risk of some heavier rain towards Thursday or Friday. Temperatures near normal in mid-teens. There are some indications of improving weather the following week.

My local weather on Tuesday started cloudy with light rain, then it cleared up, the highs were about 15 C.

M.T. Cranium · 30-04-2015 7:40am

Thursday, 30 April, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly cloudy with isolated showers developing, but some places will likely remain dry, and amounts in any case will be slight (1-3 mm). Sunshine may be better near the south coast than elsewhere. Highs 8-11 C with the colder values in the inland north. Just light northerly winds backing to easterly later on. Cloud slowly approaching southwest coast by evening.

TONIGHT ... Gradually increasing cloud, light rain in parts of west Munster by morning. Moderate east to southeast winds developing. Lows 1-4 C with scattered light ground frost inland north and east.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy but with decent sunny intervals developing by afternoon, showers more isolated. Cool and breezy (NW to N 30-50 km/hr) with highs 8-11 C. Cloudy by late afternoon near south coast.

FRIDAY ... Mostly cloudy, outbreaks of light rain, highs about 11 or 12 C. About 5-10 mm rain likely. Moderate southeast winds 30-50 km/hr.

SATURDAY ... Continuing cloudy and damp with heavier rain in west during the morning, then becoming more scattered in variable conditions by afternoon. Moderate to strong southeast winds 50-90 km/hr, lows 5-8 C and highs 10-14 C. About 10 to 15 mm rain likely. There could be some very gusty conditions around inland south, south coast, and east coast mid-day.

SUNDAY ... Outbreaks of heavy, showery rain and risk of some thunderstorm activity, a bit warmer and more humid. Lows 8-10 C and highs 13-15 C. A further 10-20 mm rain likely.

MONDAY ... Breezy to windy at times, showers but some sunny breaks developing. Lows 4-7 C and highs 12-14 C. About 2-5 mm rain likely.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, breezy, near normal temperatures, highs about 13 C.

OUTLOOK ... The pattern looks somewhat warmer with the occasional dry day but still somewhat unsettled, overall not far from normal May conditions -- earlier indications of a warm dry spell look a bit diminished but could return to the outlook as this often happens in cycles in the two-week outlook period before a signal gets better established. I have been looking at the summer forecast and so far can't find much to move my thinking away from "average" conditions, but will wait until mid-May for a final call.

Meanwhile, for BRITAIN, the pattern over the next five days looks about the same as the above forecasts but on Tuesday a rather strong low could affect southern and eastern England while largely missing Ireland as it moves up from France, so if you have travel plans around then, watch forecasts for details, there could be some rough ferry crossings around Tuesday as a result of this circulation.

Conditions in NORTH AMERICA are now warming gradually in many regions back into at least the normal range after several cool days. Wednesday was partly cloudy with brief showers at times at my location, and the high was about 13 C.

M.T. Cranium · 01-05-2015 7:55am

Friday, 1 May, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, light rain at times in Munster this morning will very gradually spread further north but before that arrives, just isolated showers and spells of dry weather, moderate southeast winds, and cool with highs about 10-12 C. Rainfalls 5-10 mm in Munster.

TONIGHT ... Overcast with rain becoming heavy at times, moderate to strong southeast winds 50-80 km/hr. Temperatures steady or slowly rising 5-8 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy and wet (15-25 mm rain possible) with risk of heavy downpours and embedded thundershowers. Winds southeast 60-90 km/hr veering more southerly by late afternoon and evening. Very strong gusts may develop in parts of the west. Highs 11-14 C but temperatures may only be around 7 to 9 C until late afternoon in parts of Ulster and Leinster.

SUNDAY ... Early morning showers or thunderstorms then variable cloud, further showers developing but some dry intervals and brief sunny breaks are possible, at least some improvement from Saturday ... winds moderate south to southwest 50-70 km/hr. Morning lows 5-8 C and afternoon highs 13-16 C. Rainfalls 5-10 mm.

MONDAY ... Brief dry intervals in the morning, outbreaks of light rain by mid-day south and west, afternoon and evening east, becoming heavy at times by evening. Total rainfalls on Monday about 5-10 mm for most. Winds rather variable as two areas of low pressure interact, generally not a windy day but a few moderate gusts likely near west coast. Morning lows about 7 C and afternoon highs 12-14 C.

TUESDAY ... Becoming windy and showery, winds SSW to WSW 60-100 km/hr and cool, temperatures steady 8-12 C. About 5 mm further rain except in parts of Ulster where 10-15 mm may fall.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Remaining rather unsettled although some improvement late in the week before another showery frontal system develops by the weekend of 8th-9th. Longer range indications are slightly better but nothing much drier than normal May conditions is shown at this point. Some days would be mostly dry so it should be fairly reasonable for farming and other outdoor interests.

The general theme is similar for BRITAIN and the latest guidance shows that the expected Tuesday disturbance will be equally inclement in most regions including much of Ireland as well. Over parts of NORTH AMERICA temperatures are slightly above normal and a few heavy storms will develop in central regions. An early season tropical storm may be on the charts by this time next week (off the South Carolina-Georgia coasts). ... My local weather on Thursday was overcast with occasional light rain, and the high was 13 C.

M.T. Cranium · 02-05-2015 7:05am

Saturday, 2 May, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Windy and wet (15-25 mm rain possible) with risk of heavy downpours and embedded thundershowers. Some brief dry intervals may come and go in central Munster but rain will be more frequent elsewhere. Winds southeast 60-90 km/hr at times although somewhat less windy for part of the afternoon, the wind veering more southerly by late afternoon and evening. Highs 11-14 C but temperatures may only be around 7 to 9 C until late afternoon in parts of Ulster and Leinster.

TONIGHT ... Bursts of heavier rain will reach Connacht early evening and spread gradually across Ulster overnight, but rain will ease further south to drizzle or mist. Temperatures will be steady or even rise a little in the colder north, reaching 9-10 C by morning.

SUNDAY ... Early morning showers or thunderstorms then variable cloud, further showers developing but some dry intervals and brief sunny breaks are possible, at least some improvement from Saturday ... winds moderate south to southwest 50-70 km/hr. Afternoon highs 13-16 C. Rainfalls 5-10 mm.

MONDAY ... Brief dry intervals in the morning, outbreaks of light rain by mid-day south and west, afternoon and evening east, becoming heavy at times by evening. Total rainfalls on Monday about 5-10 mm for most. Winds rather variable as two areas of low pressure interact, generally not a windy day but a few moderate gusts likely near west coast. Morning lows about 7 C and afternoon highs 12-14 C.

TUESDAY ... Becoming windy and showery, winds SSW to WSW 60-100 km/hr by late afternoon or evening, and cool, with temperatures steady 8-12 C. About 5 mm further rain except in parts of Ulster where 10-15 mm may fall.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy with showers or periods of rain, winds SW to W 60-100 km/hr with strong gusts near Atlantic coasts. Lows near 7 C and highs about 10-12 C.

THURSDAY and early FRIDAY may see some improvement to partly cloudy and warmer weather with highs near 16 C. Northern coastal regions may remain in low cloud and light rain. However, later Friday into the following weekend then looks rather similar to mid-week with a return to strong winds and heavier more widespread rainfalls. Beyond that, best estimate is for continued variable but unsettled conditions with near normal temperatures in the mid teens.

Over in BRITAIN the conditions will be broadly similar although today will be generally quite chilly and rain will affect mostly southern especially southwestern counties of England and parts of Wales. The Tuesday disturbance will be somewhat stronger in eastern England which may feel the sting of gale force winds by evening or overnight.

NORTH AMERICA has some reasonably warm conditions in most regions and it is mid-summer hot in the southwest where highs are reaching the mid to high 30s. Although we are in a cooler Pacific air mass here, it was pleasantly warm at about 17 C on Friday and it could nudge 20 C with isolated thunderstorms forming on a weak front later today (meaning Saturday).

M.T. Cranium · 03-05-2015 6:57am

Sunday, 3 May, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

Astronomy note: Full moon tonight, exact time is 0342z or 4:42 a.m. Irish summer time Monday 4th May. No eclipse this month.

TODAY ... Heavy rain will become increasingly confined to east Ulster and many other places will have a dry interlude or nothing more than a bit of mist or drizzle, before some hit or miss showers and a few thunderstorms develop from about Limerick to Meath this afternoon. Local downpours could produce isolated flash flooding. Highs 14-17 C. Winds today will be relatively moderate from south to southwest at 40-70 km/hr at times.

TONIGHT ... Showers fading away slowly, mist or fog may then develop in any clearing. Lows 3-7 C.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, showers rather isolated but heavy rain could move into parts of the south by late afternoon or evening (10-20 mm expected). Highs 11-13 C. Moderate southerly winds developing.

TUESDAY ... Periods of rain may be heavy at times, 15-25 mm can be expected. Lows near 8 C and highs near 12 C. Strong winds may develop late in the day near the west coast and spread across Munster during the evening as low pressure finally moves inland.

WEDNESDAY ... Becoming very breezy or windy, 60-90 km/hr, with local gusts to 110 km/hr near Atlantic coasts as winds veer gradually from WSW to NW with the deepening low moving slowly away towards western Scotland. Bands of heavy showers separated by partly cloudy skies can be expected and these may set up in certain areas for much of the day leading to quite variable rainfalls between 5 and 25 mm. Central Connacht to Dublin-Meath would appear to be the region most likely to see the heavier rainfalls. Temperatures steady in the range of 8 to 12 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, not as windy and pleasantly warm, lows near 5 C and highs near 17 C.

FRIDAY ... Periods of rain may become heavy at times, lasting into the first part of the weekend. Temperatures around 14 C.

My local weather on Saturday was very pleasant, bright sunshine from mid-morning onward, and highs near 18 C. I am now a bright shade of red as a result.

M.T. Cranium · 04-05-2015 7:19am

Monday, 4 May, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Morning sunshine will fade quickly in the west behind advancing cloud leading to some light rain there, but the sun may be able to hold out until afternoon in eastern counties where cloud will be followed rather quickly by heavy rain moving up from the Biscay region. That is due to begin in Wexford and Waterford around 5 p.m. and will spread into the remainder of Leinster as well as parts of east Munster by evening. Not too windy but some moderate southerly breezes will back to easterly by this evening. Highs should reach 14 C in the east and 12 C in the west.

TONIGHT ... Rain will be heavy at times in Leinster and east Ulster, and moderate elsewhere. Expect about 25 mm east, tapering down to 10 mm west coast. Winds east backing to north then northwest 40-70 km/hr as the low tracks slowly northeast over the Irish Sea. Another low further west will keep winds southerly near the Atlantic coasts. Lows about 7-9 C.

TUESDAY ... Further outbreaks of rain will bring another 10-15 mm in bands, with brief brighter intervals possible, as winds slowly increase during the afternoon and evening from the northwest. Highs 12-14 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Rather windy and cool with bands of heavy showers, but also some dry intervals and brief sunny breaks, in westerly winds of 60-90 km/hr with strongest gusts near Donegal Bay. Morning lows 5-7 C and afternoon highs 12-14 C.

THURSDAY ... Considerable improvement to partly sunny and light winds, morning lows 3-7 C and afternoon highs 14-17 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will then become wet again with 15-25 mm rainfalls expected and temperatures not far from normal values of 14-15 C each day. There may be a brief dry interval early Sunday but another front will quickly move into the vacuum and bring more rain.

FURTHER OUTLOOK is for generally unsettled weather with temperatures close to normal mid-May values.

Most of the above will apply to forecasts for BRITAIN and tonight's rain could become very heavy in Wales and the Midlands.

My local weather was sunny and pleasantly warm on Sunday with a high of about 20 C. Our brief warm and dry spell appears set to break down later today or tonight.

M.T. Cranium · 05-05-2015 6:50am

Tuesday, 5 May, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... The moderate to heavy rain will gradually shift further north to be followed by a dry interval with a few breaks in the overcast, but another less active band of rain will develop across the south by afternoon, and this will also move northward by evening. Further rainfalls of 20 mm likely (in addition to 10-15 mm that has already fallen in central counties in the central and the northern counties, and about 5-10 mm with the second band later on. Possible spot flooding on roads this morning in Leinster and nearby portions of Connacht, Munster. Highs 13-15 C. Winds generally rather subdued except for a strong northwest breeze in west Munster by late in the day.

TONIGHT ... Becoming windy with showers or periods of rain, winds increasing to NW 50-80 km/hr, temperatures steady 6-8 C. About 5-10 mm rain can be expected.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and cool with showers or periods of light rain, with about 10-15 mm on average. Winds generally W to NW 50-90 km/hr with risk of stronger gusts near Donegal Bay and exposed parts of Galway, north Clare. Highs 12-14 C. There may be a bit of sunshine in a few parts of Leinster and near the south coast.

THURSDAY ... After a rather cool start (3-5 C), becoming sunny with increasing afternoon cloud for most, but cloudy from mid-morning in west Munster followed by light rain that may spread north into south Connacht by evening. Only 2-4 mm in this band, and large portions of the country will stay dry, relatively warm too with highs near 17 C.

FRIDAY into SATURDAY could prove to be very wet as a low pressure system moves slowly into the country and across the south central counties during early Saturday. There could be 20-40 mm rainfalls with heaviest amounts just north of the track of the low. Temperatures will be steady in the range of 11 to 13 C and winds across central and northern counties may be quite strong from the east, more variable in the southern counties but with strong westerlies possible near south Kerry and offshore marine zones near south coast. This situation may change closer to the time so that these predicted windy zones may shift too.

SUNDAY could start out dry but another wet frontal system will follow rather quickly and will also be accompanied by rather strong southerly winds, with highs about 15-16 C.

My local weather on Monday was cloudy with a few sunny breaks and the high was about 16 C. We had some very light rain a few hours ago, probably less than 1 mm.

M.T. Cranium · 06-05-2015 7:32am

Wednesday, 6 May, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Windy and cool with frequent showers or periods of rain, sometimes heavy but becoming more showery with some breaks in the overcast developing by afternoon. Winds generally W-NW 50-80 km/hr with some higher gusts possible near Donegal Bay and Galway Bay. Highs 11-13 C. About 10 to 15 mm further rainfall can be expected.

TONIGHT ... Light showers may continue in parts of the north and in west Munster, some other regions will become dry but clearing will be slow, and winds will gradually subside to under 40 km/hr, with lows about 6 C.

THURSDAY ... Latest guidance is not quite as good as the trends earlier, it will be at least a dry day in some areas and showers in a few locations will be generally light, but rather cloudy overall with just some sunny breaks, and highs about 14-15 C. (The departing low has developed a bit of a trailing secondary trough is the technical explanation)

FRIDAY ... Dry and rather chilly (lows 2-5 C with isolated ground frost) to start the day in most regions, increasing and thickening cloud and a strengthening east wind (southeast near the south coast) will herald the gradual approach of a rather vigorous storm system that will produce widespread heavy rainfalls overnight into Saturday morning. But this rain will only be a factor in the southwest for Friday and highs will be about 13 C.

FRIDAY NIGHT and SATURDAY will see heavy rain and gusty winds 50-80 km/hr with potential for higher gusts, from southeast veering to southwesterly, except for easterly gales near the north coast. By later in the day, the rain will become more showery and winds will turn more northwesterly. Embedded thunderstorms are possible especially over the inland southeast and central counties. About 20-30 mm rainfall can be expected with possible local flooding. Temperatures steady 10-14 C.

SUNDAY will have a foggy start with a few morning sunny breaks possible in a warm, humid southerly flow, then rain will spread in from the west and once again it may turn heavy at times. Lows 8-10 C and highs 15-16 C.

OUTLOOK for NEXT WEEK ... There could be brief dry intervals and slightly warmer temperatures but eventually this unsettled pattern will probably "reload" and several more of these windy, wet systems will rip across Ireland around mid-week and towards the following weekend. (don't shoot the messenger)

Over most of BRITAIN, this sequence will be somewhat later but otherwise similar. Some severe storms are possible in England late Saturday and again on Sunday afternoon or evening. If there is a warm interval, temperatures could reach as high as 23 C with a more direct feed from the warmer continent. But it won't last too long before mid-teens return.

NORTH AMERICA will see some heavy storms too, in regions from the Ohio valley to southern New England. The far west will have gusty showers along a rather weak front moving inland but dry weather will soon return. My local weather on Tuesday was interesting, there was heavy hail nearby in parts of Vancouver but it missed my place to the north by about a mile and we only saw a brief shower. That storm continued on for another 50-100 kms to the east dropping more hail as it went. The high was about 14 C.

M.T. Cranium · 07-05-2015 6:54am

Thursday, 7 May, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Showers will continue to die out but a few places may have about 2 or 3 mm mostly this morning. The sun will break through more frequently after mid-day and with light winds it should feel rather warm, highs 13-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy in the south and west, some clear intervals east and north, rather cold with lows 2-5 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloud will slowly advance northeast to dim any morning sun, and then rain will follow into Munster during the morning, Connacht and Leinster by afternoon or early evening. About 10 mm of rain will fall in some areas. Highs 12-14 C.

FRIDAY NIGHT and SATURDAY ... Breezy and mild with frequent showers or periods of rain, some clearing spreading into west by Saturday afternoon. A further 15-25 mm of rain likely in this period, with temperatures steady in the range 10-14 C. Moderate south to southwest winds 40-70 km/hr except remaining easterly 30-50 km/hr near Ulster's north coast.

SUNDAY ... Early morning fog or mist, lows near 8 C, then brief sunny intervals, warm, but rain following from the west and becoming rather heavy inland west. Highs 15-18 C. Moderate south to southwest winds 50-70 km/hr.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will become quite warm, especially Tuesday, with highs near 17 C Monday and 20 C Tuesday. Further rain will develop mid-week.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, turning colder in several stages until temperatures become below normal again by the weekend of 16th-17th. The early guidance for the second half of May appears to signal more of this wet, cool weather at times, due to a northeast flow reaching Ireland.

SUMMER OUTLOOK ... I have worked on a summer forecast and the general theme is for a relatively normal summer, possibly a bit on the wet side of normal especially in the southeast (Britain will see even wetter conditions) and possibly somewhat dry in Connacht and Ulster. Temperatures will generally be close to normal values but could fall just a bit short on average. If I see different signals I will certainly amend this early outlook.

Briefly, there was quite a strong outbreak of severe storms in the central United States on Wednesday. This will redevelop today in the Midwest and western Great Lakes, but will not be as severe. Meanwhile, my local weather was cool and partly cloudy with a high of about 13 C.

Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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