Cheltenham Ante Post Pick

ste2010 · 10-01-2012 12:22am

I'll eat my racecard behind Ted Walsh and the other rye correspondant in Cheltenham live on RTE if Oscars well finishes in the top 3

ste2010 · 10-01-2012 12:26am

I reckon the fly will be beaten this year. Spirit son, zarkander, unaccompanied, Grandouet. I'm thinking spirit son or zarkander but would love to see both first get a run out! Probably back spirit son before his next race e/w NRNB

UrbanSea · 10-01-2012 12:28am

Why is Oscars Wells still running over 2 miles and not 2 and a half

Plentyofice · 10-01-2012 9:08am

UrbanSea wrote: »

Why is Oscars Wells still running over 2 miles and not 2 and a half

Great point . Baffles me too. He simply does not have the pace of a hurricane, granduoet, unaccompanied etc etc. Word was he wasn;t 110% when against thousand stars in Punchestown but they should move on now and up the distance me thinks:)

premierstone · 10-01-2012 9:47am

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

I'll go for Oscars Well, 1pt ew with Ladbrokes at 20/1 NRNB

That you Tom??

Nice call it is indeed Oscars but tbh I wouldnt back it at 40/1 myself, but who am I to question Mr Segal.

UrbanSea · 10-01-2012 10:07am

At least we know he'd get up the hill well

premierstone · 10-01-2012 10:21am

UrbanSea wrote: »

At least we know he'd get up the hill well

Yeah pity it is more likely to be up besides Garde Champetre rather than the Fly

cheltenhamfan · 10-01-2012 10:30am

More from Jessie on Oscars

http://www.examiner.ie/sport/racing/oscars-well-to-stay-over-two-miles-for-the-foreseeable-future-179566.html

Colonel Sanders · 10-01-2012 8:53pm

premierstone wrote: »

That you Tom?? Nice call it is indeed Oscars but tbh I wouldnt back it at 40/1 myself, but who am I to question Mr Segal.

Was quite confident Oscars would be the pick until yesterday evening, others seemed stronger in the betting. FWIW I took a little 25/1 NRNB a week or so ago.

The method to my madness was that he surely needs a decent size field & very strong gallop to be at his best over 2m. He handles the track & I think he'd have won the Neptune last year had he not blundered the last (needless to say I backed it!). Add in the fact that Harrington's stable aren't in great form & his Xmas run was encouraging

Timeform put him up as an ante post bet in their 50 to follow also. A speculative bet but I think the race is open enough if The Fly doesn't run & there isn't a pile of form tieing the English & Irish 2m hurdlers together.

Colonel Sanders · 10-01-2012 8:56pm

My ante post portfolio now consists of the following:

Captain Chris - Gold Cup 1pt ew at 33/1 NRNB

Oscars Well - Champion Hurdle 1pt ew at 25/1 NRNB

Hidden Cyclone - RSA Chase 5pts win at various prices. Average price is approx 40/1

UrbanSea · 10-01-2012 9:32pm

Why didn't you mention Hidden Cyclone before

hucklebuck · 10-01-2012 10:01pm

My bets so far are:

Midnight Game 16/1 - Supreme Novices (looks crap now!!)
Kauto Stone 14/1 - Champion Chase
Hidden Cyclone 33/1 - RSA
Cue Card 16/1 - Arkle & 27/1 RSA (knowing my luck he will end up the Jewson)

Colonel Sanders · 10-01-2012 11:10pm

Champion is a strange market

For me it revolves around the fly, if he lines up 100% he wins, but 3 of the first 4 in the betting have yet to be seen this season.

Grandouet still has to prove he can live with the best Ireland has to offer (I just can't help feeling Overturn was OOT in the Bula and the English handicapper has Brampour as the best horse in the race officially)

Binocular would take a leap of faith after his Aintree/Punchestown efforts and an on and off the bridle display in the Xmas hurdle

For me the only 2 horses I could back are either Oscars Well or Brampour at almost 100/1 on Betfair

MinisterJD · 10-01-2012 11:30pm

Brampour 79/1 on bf
Oscars Well has raced over 2m 5 times and lost every time, Raced over further 6 times won 3 on soft and heavy and would prob have won Neptune but for final flight blunder.
Weld ruled Waaheb out of supreme novices today.

hucklebuck · 10-01-2012 11:53pm

I will be backing Zarkandar and Hurricane Fly I think.

I am in Kildare on Saturday and will see what I can find out about Oscars Wells and his work and the yards thoughts.

Gary Nutting went for Unaccompanied too, have I missed something with her?

ste2010 · 10-01-2012 11:59pm

I think cue card will go well alright. Torn between al ferof (whether it's the arkle or champion chase could determine alot) peddlers and cue card. Dont think peddlers was on song the last day.
Also wouldn't back sprinter sacre that short, no value there. I'm hoping Charlie byrnes has locked solwhit in a stable made of fences and sends him for the arkle..would definitely strike my interest..I think solwhit was underrated last year.
If grans crus goes for the RSA I'll back heavy with an e/w on hidden cyclone.
Can't believe captain conan is joint favorite now for supreme. Still picking holes in that field.
After years of loyalty I'm drawing a line through big zeb...sizing Europe is a class act but I think it's a weak field this year so would be no surprise to see him win again.
Anyone know what the story is with realt dubh (champion chase) and solwhit (arkle)???

MinisterJD · 11-01-2012 12:08am

Noel Meade:Realt Dubh: "I've entered him in the Ryanair and the Queen Mother Champion Chase with the Ryanair the more likely.

"He got well enough hammered in the Arkle last year as he probably wasn't good enough having got outpaced but he came back and won a two-and-a-half mile Grade One and I'd say that the 2m5f of the Ryanair looks to be his trip."

"I would hope he would run mid-February and then go to Cheltenham."

MinisterJD · 11-01-2012 12:11am

Brian Fleming racingpost.com
SOLWHIT has met with a setback and his chasing debut has been put on hold until early in the new year, according to trainer Charles Byrnes.

The six-time Grade 1 winning hurdler was last seen when chasing home Hurricane Fly for the fourth time in his career in the BHP Insurances Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown last January.
The seven-year-old was expected to start over fences sometime this month but Byrnes said on Thursday: "Solwhit has had a bit of a setback and it’ll be the other side of Christmas before he starts off over fences.

"It's a suspensory ligament problem and they can take time so he is on the easy list at the moment. I was hoping he'd run sometime this month with a view to going to Leopardstown at Christmas but we are now looking into January at the earliest."

Solwhit is a general 16-1 chance for next year's Irish Independent Arkle Chase at the Cheltenham Festival

Now 39/1 on betfair for arkle

ste2010 · 11-01-2012 12:11am

MinisterJD wrote: »

Noel Meade:Realt Dubh: "I've entered him in the Ryanair and the Queen Mother Champion Chase with the Ryanair the more likely.

"He got well enough hammered in the Arkle last year as he probably wasn't good enough having got outpaced but he came back and won a two-and-a-half mile Grade One and I'd say that the 2m5f of the Ryanair looks to be his trip."

"I would hope he would run mid-February and then go to Cheltenham."

Cheers JD - also wasn't far off captain Chris at punchestown in May

premierstone · 11-01-2012 2:08am

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

For me the only 2 horses I could back are either Oscars Well or Brampour at almost 100/1 on Betfair

MinisterJD wrote: »

Brampour 79/1 on bf

Well the thing about Brampour is if you watch the greatwood again Moon Dice was the horse to take out of it, had absolutely no luck in running and was conceeding two pounds to Brampour, go back again to hes run in hte Galway hurdle where he gave The real article a 9 lenght beating conceeding 6lbs, horses that have ran well in Galway usually like Cheltenham and the greatwood is further evidence that he will love the course.

I have had a few small bits and pieces @ 190 and other fancy prices and if he lines up that is an insult tbh, strong possibility he goes for the county, and would be worth following there too.

gudede · 11-01-2012 12:23pm

Lads what do ye think about Kauto Stone for the champion chase??

He probably wants 2.4 miles but 2 miles around Cheltenham with a quick pace will seem like 2.4 miles, 20/1 NRNB seems a good price and pick at the moment. All though I will be backing Captain Chris if he run's in this due to the Arkle stats.

Slattsy · 11-01-2012 12:45pm

gudede wrote: »

Lads what do ye think about Kauto Stone for the champion chase??

He probably wants 2.4 miles but 2 miles around Cheltenham with a quick pace will seem like 2.4 miles, 20/1 NRNB seems a good price and pick at the moment. All though I will be backing Captain Chris if he run's in this due to the Arkle stats.

Personally I don't think it has any chance.
It wants 2 and a half and very soft ground.

gudede · 11-01-2012 1:10pm

Oh I know he's an outsider but as an antepost bet he could be the one as I think pricewise could pick him next week and his price will be gone then,

Sizing Europe(Champion but get the price on the day)

[URL="javascript:addLeg('--','L', '9', '4', '', '', '3', '1', '4', '291046895');"]9/4 [/URL]
Big Zeb (could just be to old)[URL="javascript:addLeg('--','L', '4', '1', '', '', '3', '1', '4', '291046893');"]4/1 [/URL] Finians Rainbow (Abit short for antepost, be interesting what BG rides)[URL="javascript:addLeg('--','L', '6', '1', '', '', '3', '1', '4', '291046899');"]6/1 [/URL] Captain Chris (hope he goes in this and if he does then he'll be a bigger price after two bad runs at 3 miles) [URL="javascript:addLeg('--','L', '8', '1', '', '', '3', '1', '4', '291046894');"]8/1 [/URL]
Al Ferof (No experience really and probably won't run and if he does then Kauto Stone won't run)
[URL="javascript:addLeg('--','L', '8', '1', '', '', '3', '1', '4', '291614600');"]8/1 [/URL]Noble Prince (probably be aimed at Ryanair)[URL="javascript:addLeg('--','L', '10', '1', '', '', '3', '1', '4', '291046919');"]10/1 [/URL] Wishful Thinking (Probably Ryanair Id say)[URL="javascript:addLeg('--','L', '14', '1', '', '', '3', '1', '4', '291046920');"]14/1 [/URL] Tataniano [URL="javascript:addLeg('--','L', '16', '1', '', '', '3', '1', '4', '291046902');"]16/1 [/URL] Realt Dubh (Fitness and probably Ryanair)[URL="javascript:addLeg('--','L', '16', '1', '', '', '3', '1', '4', '291046905');"]16/1 [/URL] Somersby (not a two mile horse and will always find one to good)[URL="javascript:addLeg('--','L', '16', '1', '', '', '3', '1', '4', '291046930');"]16/1 [/URL] Captain Cee Bee (couldn't trust him)[URL="javascript:addLeg('--','L', '20', '1', '', '', '3', '1', '4', '291046896');"]20/1 [/URL] Kauto Stone ??????????????[URL="javascript:addLeg('--','L', '20', '1', '', '', '3', '1', '4', '291046916');"]20/1 [/URL] Gauvain (be a bad champion Chase if he wins)[URL="javascript:addLeg('--','L', '20', '1', '', '', '3', '1', '4', '291046917');"]20/1 [/URL] Flat Out ?????[URL="javascript:addLeg('--','L', '20', '1', '', '', '3', '1', '4', '291046922');"]20/1 [/URL] Ghizao (Jumpin is his big worry and would of beaten Finians Rainbow at Aintree last year if it jumped)[URL="javascript:addLeg('--','L', '20', '1', '', '', '3', '1', '4', '291046926');"]20/1 [/URL] Medermit (Solid horse but see him as I see Somersby)[URL="javascript:addLeg('--','L', '25', '1', '', '', '3', '1', '4', '291046914');"]25/1 [/URL]

Slattsy · 11-01-2012 1:44pm

Looks a poor enough field doesn't it.

If Sizing Europe is fit and well he wins again for me.
Finians Rainbow is an interesting one, I'd be wary of him. Especially if Geraghty is on.
Ghizao is one I like ew, a very good horse on its day, if the ground is good and he manages to put in a decent round of jumping he'd be in the shake up.

Huntey · 11-01-2012 3:46pm

Slattsy wrote: »

Ghizao is one I like ew, a very good horse on its day, if the ground is good

Ghizao wants nothing to do with good ground. It won't favour him in the slightest.

Slattsy · 11-01-2012 4:04pm

Huntey wrote: »

Slattsy wrote: »

Ghizao is one I like ew, a very good horse on its day, if the ground is good

Ghizao wants nothing to do with good ground. It won't favour him in the slightest.

Not so sure, Nicholls used to say he wanted soft ground but one of his best runs was at Aintree last year, behind Finians Rainbow. Probably the quickest National Hunt ground he's raced on.

I'd love to see this horse in the Ryanair myself.

premierstone · 11-01-2012 4:38pm

Have to agree with Huntey on this one, Ghizao has ran a total of 8 times in Cheltenham, 4 of those on Good ground for which hes record reads 2000 the solitary place coming in an uninspiring novice chase in 2010.

Compare this to hes runs in cheltenham on Good to soft and Soft and he has won 2 out of 4, with a record of 1210. Compare hes three runs in Cheltenham last year against Captain Chris to see how much the combination of fast ground and a fast pace acted against Ghizao, he would be my idea of a place lay.

Slattsy · 11-01-2012 5:03pm

So its just Cheltenham then and not necessarily the ground.

Maybe he needs further on better ground, but his Aintree run proves he has the ability on a going day.

premierstone · 11-01-2012 6:16pm

Slattsy wrote: »

So its just Cheltenham then and not necessarily the ground.

Maybe he needs further on better ground, but his Aintree run proves he has the ability on a going day.

No hes form on soft around cheltenham is actually very good, but on anything faster than Good to Soft is very poor, bigger fields, faster ground and championship pace races dont suit the horse imo, he's jumping falls to pieces and he gets done for toe. Pretty much all the attributes that one would not look for in a horse for the festival.

AldilaMan · 11-01-2012 10:51pm

gudede wrote: »

Lads what do ye think about Kauto Stone for the champion chase??

He probably wants 2.4 miles but 2 miles around Cheltenham with a quick pace will seem like 2.4 miles, 20/1 NRNB seems a good price and pick at the moment. All though I will be backing Captain Chris if he run's in this due to the Arkle stats.

I agree with you on Captain Chris (not just cos I backed him last year). He was overlooked in the Arkle because he was thought to be more of a stayer but at the pace they go in the Champion and the Arkle a horse needs to be able to get 2.5 miles to get up the hill. From memory no horse who won the Arkle has been out of the places in the following year's Champion Chase in the last 12 runnings and in the first 2 places mostly. 8/1 e/w NRNB with Ladbrokes is reasonable value. Don't mind all that talk from Hobbs about the Gold Cup and Ryanair options. Last year Captain Chris was talked about for the Jewson and Wishfull Thinking for the RSA. I'll be very surprised if he doesn't line up in the Champion Chase given the stats. Read last years quote from Hobbs:

March 2011
Speaking to At The Races, Hobbs said: "We're going to leave it until the last minute. We'll see if any of their rivals go by the wayside - whether it means that Captain Chris will run in the Arkle or Wishfull Thinking will run in the RSA Chase, I'm not sure.
"The problem is they'd both have a great chance in the Jewson but I suppose we might try to have two winners rather than one.
"My gut feeling is that Captain Chris needs two-and-a-half miles. I don't know if Wishfull Thinking will stay three miles and do we really want to take on Time For Rupert?"

Then he runs him in the Arkle and wins !

Cheltenham Ante Post Pick

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