The return of the One Bet to €25,000 challenge

turbobaby · 27-09-2011 2:08pm #1

Hi all,

Just to let you know, I have initiated a bank transfer into one of my accounts and will be ready to dust off the cobwebs for my big ante-post accumulator starting this weekend.

It will be a single accumulator (if they let me put the full stake on in one go).

€500 -> €25,000 or thereabouts!

I did it in 2009/10 and came very close last season so lets hope this year I'll come good again.

Incidentely, I notice Danny Graham has been brutal this season - the bast ard

Details to follow once the transfer goes through.

Derek! · 27-09-2011 2:23pm

Welcome back

and goodluck with doin it again.

Gavin "shels" · 27-09-2011 10:56pm

Will probably follow you on this, very unlucky last season.

yesno1234 · 28-09-2011 11:24am

Can't wait for this, I have been checking the forum religiously lately to make sure I didn't miss it.

turbobaby · 28-09-2011 5:41pm

To anyone following, you will need to get a Coral / Eurobet account set up as their prices are the best for my particular choices.

markc91 · 28-09-2011 5:47pm

I got an email from eurobet saying that they were closing down on sept. 30th???

turbobaby · 29-09-2011 5:41am

markc91 wrote: »

I got an email from eurobet saying that they were closing down on sept. 30th???

Ha! Maybe they could see us coming and got scared!

Coral it is so... Hopefully Coral will now allow Euro accounts.

turbobaby · 01-10-2011 9:35am

.... and here it is:

I had to place it it three bets. Two £100 bets and one £210 bet (screen shot below).

Not much time now as I've to head to work but will be able to follow the scores on my Android later. Will also put up some reasoning why I chose these selections.

Stake: €475
Odds: 52.85
Potential winnings: €25,105 (at current exchange rates).

turbobaby · 05-10-2011 12:37pm

Not the greatest start for the bet with Rickie Lambert bagging two penalties and Exeter winning (due mainly to some excellent work by their keeper)

Chelsea won however!

The odds havent changed too much, with only Exeter drifting out to 2.63 from 2.38.

The reasons behind Ross McCormack being the anchor of my bet are pretty simple. He's proven at this level, in very good form so far this year, in a team scoring for fun despite being outside of the playoffs. I am worried about him staying fit all season but if he does, he will certainly be in the mix at the end. There's not alot of competition out there for him too. Lambert is currently level with him at the top, and certainly is a very real rival, but looking beyond him here are the others in contention according to the bookies:

Marvin Emnes - terrible goalscoring record throughout his professional career. Maybe this is his year, but Iwilling to risk it isn't.

Kevin Philips - Proven at this level too, but at his age he unlikely to play enough games this season to compete.

Carlton Cole - I have never rated Cole. He has a poor goalscoring record also and has only played the full 90 mins once this season. Maybe Big Sam doesn't rate him either.

Michael Chopa - Dangerous threat, but in a poor side and already plenty of goals behind.

Craig Mackail Smith - excellent start for him this year at Brighton. Proven in League 1 and has looked comfortable in the Championship. A great bet at 25/1

.... next up is Exeter away to Bury on Saturday.

Leeds have a good run of fixtures coming up:

Doncaster Rovers v Leeds United
Leeds United v Coventry City
Peterborough United v Leeds United
Birmingham v Leeds United
Leeds United v Cardiff City
Leeds United v Blackpool
Leicester City v Leeds United
Burnley v Leeds United
Leeds United v Barnsley

turbobaby · 06-10-2011 1:43pm

Ross McCormack nominated for the player of the month award. This will surely boost his confidence.... Lovely!

markc91 · 06-10-2011 1:56pm

Sorry for taking this O.T but do ya have to have a credit card for coral my laser doesnt seem to work

turbobaby · 06-10-2011 2:06pm

Their site says:

We accept deposits by Visa debit or credit, MasterCard, Maestro or Solo.

I believe Laser is Maestro so it should work. Just give them an email and ask.

You could also look into moneybookers.

I used Neteller by the way,and they def dont accept laser.

yaaaboy · 07-10-2011 8:32pm

Stan James had mccormack priced up at 50/1 for a while last night, im sure it was a mistake but i managed to get 50 quid down before my account got suspended..pity i didnt have more in my account.

Great thread all the best with it!

turbobaby · 08-10-2011 5:13pm

50/1 !! Tremendous stuff. You think they'll cancel it? Let me know how it goes when they re-activate your account....

Well today was a positive day with Exeter losing to fellow strugglers Bury. Other results also went nicely so Exeter have gone bottom. Four teams get relegated by the way.

Bring on next weekend!

yaaaboy · 08-10-2011 7:29pm

Yes the bet stands, the security team said my account was suspended because my account (which i had set up especially for the bet that night) name was in english and it didnt match the name on my credit card which was spelt in irish.. I figure thats what price mccormack was at the start of the season and when they re-opened the market they reverted back to his opening price accidentally.

I am seriously gutted i didnt post it here on time and would like to apologise to the rest of ye for not tipping ye off. Would have been epic if we all nailed 500 quid on the accumulator

turbobaby · 08-10-2011 7:39pm

Ah not to worry. I'd say if more piled on we would all have had our bets cancelled.

I'm glad we're both going to be cheering him on! I think if he can stay injury free, he's a great shout for top scorer.

Just noticed Leeds are actually playing on Friday evening on tele. Will be a good chance to get a good look at him!

PS - Just realised yours is the accumulator (minus Exeter) Good man!

turbobaby · 08-10-2011 11:25pm

Besides watching the scores coming in on Sky, this is my favourite part of the season long bet: totting up the best available bookies' odds to see if my chances of winning have improved or not! So please forgive me for this little pleasure. Here we go....

Original Stake: £410 (€475 approx)

McCormack Top Scorer: 11.0
Exeter Relegation from L1: 2.75
Bayern to win CL Group A: 1.3
Chelsea to win CL Group E: 1.2
Chelsea Top 4 Finish: 1.11

Total Odds at start: 52.38
Potential winnings: ~€25,000 (at exchange rates on the day).

Current odds:
McCormack Top Scorer: 11.0
Exeter Relegation from L1: 2.3
Bayern to win CL Group A: 1.3
Chelsea to win CL Group E: 1.2
Chelsea Top 4 Finish: 1.11

Total Odds: 43.81
Total odds change: -16% :eek:

As you can see, the change in odds for one selection can have a huge effect on the probability of the bet coming off.

The odds have come down by 16% after two weeks. This equates to a 16% better probability of my bet winning. However, it's still a long shot... Only a 2.38% chance of winning!

argosy2006 · 13-10-2011 4:04pm

would a grand on those current odds be a good bet?

turbobaby · 13-10-2011 5:20pm

A grand?! I wouldnt recommend anyone to put a grand on...

My stake has come from winnings and I can afford to lose it. The bet is also there to stop me putting short term bets on every week. If it wins great, but if it keeps me interested in four competitions for the rest of the season without actually winning, then it has also served a purpose.

If you were to put the grand on and McCormack was to do his hamstring in, you might feel like chasing etc but that's a personal thing and I dont know anything about you.

All that said, I think the bet still represents great value!

Chelsea at 1.11 for 4th is superb. Exeter at 2.3 for the drop is also an excellent price in my eyes. With the top two qualifying from the CL groups, there's obviously a danger that Bayern / Chelsea may take their foot of the gas but that's a risk I'm willing to take.

Next up, Leeds tomorrow night!

Pj! · 13-10-2011 11:30pm

Best of luck with it turbobaby. Will follow with interest again this year.

turbobaby · 14-10-2011 8:55pm

What a peach!

turbobaby · 17-10-2011 2:42pm

Well it's that time of the week again, when I update the odds after the weekend's events.

The weekend was indeed very good to me as we will see.

McCormack scored a delightful overhead on Friday and played very well in a Leeds team I was very impressed with.

However, his competitors for the Championship golden boot also scored, namely Rickie Lambert and Chris Wood (only on loan until Jan but may stay longer).

Chelsea impressed beating Everton 3-1.

Exeter got hammered 4-0 and changed their 'keeper at half time only for him to also play poorly. They've got bottom now and are favourites for the drop. Lovely!

Tomorrow asd Wednesday we have the return of the Champions Leage (Chelsea and Bayern) and Leeds also play tomorrow at home to Coventry.

Here's the original and updated best price odds:

Original Stake: £410 (€475 approx)

McCormack Top Scorer: 11.0
Exeter Relegation from L1: 2.75
Bayern to win CL Group A: 1.3
Chelsea to win CL Group E: 1.2
Chelsea Top 4 Finish: 1.11

Total Odds at start: 52.38
Potential winnings: ~€25,000 (at exchange rates on the day).

Current odds:
McCormack Top Scorer: 9.0
Exeter Relegation from L1: 2.25
Bayern to win CL Group A: 1.3
Chelsea to win CL Group E: 1.2
Chelsea Top 4 Finish: 1.05

Total Odds: 33.17
Total odds change: -36%

Looks like I'll be getting a good run for my money again this season.

yesno1234 · 17-10-2011 3:23pm

Well done on the sucess so far. I haven't had the money on my card to back it yet and it probably won't be until after the Champs Lge that I get a chance to back it. Do you think I should wait a week or two to see if the odds drift or should I back it now before it shortens even more. I know you can't know for definate whether it'll drift or shorten but what do you think in your opinion?

turbobaby · 17-10-2011 7:00pm

Well the bet has a 97% chance of being a loser so I expect it to lose (odds drift to infinity!) as there's usually one part that lets you down.

Like all bets the odds are going to fluctuate. Lambert is in great form and Exeter may turn things around. Bayern's group is tough... An away game against Napoli tomorrow. McCormack isnt playing 90 mins most games and they've got Becchio plus Forssell ready and waiting if his form dips.

So I wouldnt be in any rush to put money on. Hope you're not gonna go too mad with the stake as it's a got only an outside chance of winning.

yesno1234 · 17-10-2011 7:09pm

turbobaby wrote: »

Well the bet has a 97% chance of being a loser so I expect it to lose (odds drift to infinity!) as there's usually one part that lets you down.

Like all bets the odds are going to fluctuate. Lambert is in great form and Exeter may turn things around. Bayern's group is tough... An away game against Napoli tomorrow. McCormack isnt playing 90 mins most games and they've got Becchio plus Forssell ready and waiting if his form dips.

So I wouldnt be in any rush to put money on. Hope you're not gonna go too mad with the stake as it's a got only an outside chance of winning.

€50 Tops I'll be putting on it just want to know whether you think it's still a bit of value.

[Deleted User] · 17-10-2011 9:03pm

For folks other than the OP I reckon just backing McCormack to be top scorer as as a single is the way to go

turbobaby · 17-10-2011 9:51pm

To be honest I'd wait before putting any money on. Surely no ante post bets are ever that easy that they'd just go shorter and shorter!

Btw, i took the best prices on the odds from oddschecker so I think you'd have to take shorter odds as you'll have to do the accy with one bookie.

turbobaby · 19-10-2011 6:48am

Seems as though McCormack missed an absolute sitter last night and was subbed on 70 mins. At least Lambert didnt score!

Bayern get a respectable away draw in Naples and remain top of their group at the mid way point. 2 home games and 1 away game left. Confident.

mensa · 19-10-2011 10:45pm

Hi, could you give a quick summary on how to do that accumulator bet on Coral?

turbobaby · 20-10-2011 6:48am

mensa wrote: »

Hi, could you give a quick summary on how to do that accumulator bet on Coral?

Mensa, I wouldn't put the bet on with Coral now as they've dropped Mccormack to 5/1.

I will update the odds here this afternoon after work and will fin the best place for te bet. Boylesports are the only ones to offer 8/1 on McCormack by the way.

Fowler87 · 20-10-2011 9:25am

Best of luck with the bet mate. Ive done a small accum and trixie on the following for top scorer...

McCormack (Leeds) @ 7/1
Rhodes (Huddersfield) @ 11/2
Morgan Smith (Luton) @ 10/1

Optimistic 2 grand returns if they all come in but ya never know:pac:

The return of the One Bet to €25,000 challenge

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