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Very big turnout so far - who will benefit?

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  • 25-02-2011 6:08pm
    #1
    Cavehill Red
    Registered Users Posts: 6,109 ✭✭✭


    RTE reporting significantly higher turnout than 2007 across the whole country so far. If it stays that way, it'll probably end up over 72% nationally at least.

    If that happens, which parties will benefit? The more people come out, the less chance I see of an FG single party government. But I don't see Labour benefitting either. Is this a closet FF vote? Or a tidal wave of Independents? A SF breakthrough?

    Apparently it's largely young voters, incidentally.


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    #2
    maximoose
    Registered Users Posts: 9,196 ✭✭✭maximoose


    This guy certainly wont..


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    #3
    Cavehill Red
    Registered Users Posts: 6,109 ✭✭✭Cavehill Red


    maximoose wrote: »
    This guy certainly wont..

    He has under 66%, but since it was 67% in the last referendum and this vote looks like being significantly higher, yup, that bet's not looking the best. 50% already voted in some stations, apparently and the afterwork rush yet to begin.

    So on-topic, who will benefit from a big turnout? Personally, I suspect FF.


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    #4
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    FFs best hope was a low turnout in which FF/FG/Labour core voters came out, and everyone else said "ah, they're all the same". That's how they got in last time.

    The higher the turnout, the more they get hammered. It'll help Labour/SF/ULA and independents more than FG, see the boards.ie poll.


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    #5
    robd
    Registered Users Posts: 951 ✭✭✭robd


    Cavehill Red wrote: »
    RTE reporting significantly higher turnout than 2007 across the whole country so far. If it stays that way, it'll probably end up over 72% nationally at least.

    If that happens, which parties will benefit? The more people come out, the less chance I see of an FG single party government. But I don't see Labour benefitting either. Is this a closet FF vote? Or a tidal wave of Independents? A SF breakthrough?

    Apparently it's largely young voters, incidentally.

    Yep. Hard to say exactly who will benefit. Easy to say who'll lose out though. FF's core vote is the death cheaters who always vote.


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    #6
    smilerxxx
    Registered Users Posts: 472 ✭✭smilerxxx


    Saw lots if yun uns too.. i'd like to think i'm one but i don't think I count! Everyone i have spoken to, has not gone FG or FF.. Indo's featuring high on everyones list! Interesting


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    #7
    gizmo555
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,948 ✭✭✭gizmo555


    Cavehill Red wrote: »
    RTE reporting significantly higher turnout than 2007 across the whole country so far. If it stays that way, it'll probably end up over 72% nationally at least.

    If that happens, which parties will benefit? The more people come out, the less chance I see of an FG single party government. . . . Is this a closet FF vote?

    Why is it bad for FG? Since they are, by a long way, standing highest in the polls, why would a lower turnout favour them? On the other hand, very hard to believe that this is anything but bad for FF - people are not turning out in record numbers to record their unswerving support for them . . .


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    #8
    gandalf
    Registered Users Posts: 26,458 ✭✭✭✭gandalf


    Cavehill Red wrote: »
    He has under 66%, but since it was 67% in the last referendum and this vote looks like being significantly higher, yup, that bet's not looking the best. 50% already voted in some stations, apparently and the afterwork rush yet to begin.

    So on-topic, who will benefit from a big turnout? Personally, I suspect FF.

    I don't think so I would suspect it could benefit labour or the left wing candidates. Anyone I talked to today were motivated by one emotion to vote and that was anger and that certainly will not be good for FF.


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    #9
    westtip
    Registered Users Posts: 4,282 ✭✭✭westtip


    Cavehill Red wrote: »
    He has under 66%, but since it was 67% in the last referendum and this vote looks like being significantly higher, yup, that bet's not looking the best. 50% already voted in some stations, apparently and the afterwork rush yet to begin.

    So on-topic, who will benefit from a big turnout? Personally, I suspect FF.


    They are saying on drivetime a lot of younger voters, I don't agree that this will benefit FF.

    High turnout generall favours the left - so I reckon it will help ULA, Labour and the Shinners. I don't think anything can help FF they are in for a long long day and night tomorrow hanging on to final seats by their fingernails if they are lucky,,,,,,,,Shame.


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    #10
    Flimbos
    Registered Users Posts: 642 ✭✭✭Flimbos


    In recent elections, older voters have turned out in higher numbers. And older voters may be more inclined to stick with FF.

    So if a higher turnout is largely due to younger voters, who may not have bothered voting in the last election, this could work against FF.


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    #11
    jmayo
    Registered Users Posts: 13,078 ✭✭✭✭jmayo


    Cavehill Red wrote: »
    He has under 66%, but since it was 67% in the last referendum and this vote looks like being significantly higher, yup, that bet's not looking the best. 50% already voted in some stations, apparently and the afterwork rush yet to begin.

    So on-topic, who will benefit from a big turnout? Personally, I suspect FF.

    I reckon that guy must work in Dept of Finance. :D


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    #12
    ei.sdraob
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    democracy benefits


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    #13
    westtip
    Registered Users Posts: 4,282 ✭✭✭westtip


    smilerxxx wrote: »
    Saw lots if yun uns too.. i'd like to think i'm one but i don't think I count! Everyone i have spoken to, has not gone FG or FF.. Indo's featuring high on everyones list! Interesting

    Yes indeed and a lot of these indos will stay in the count and one by one be eliminated - the critical issue will be how the transfers from indos to the main parties go. More so in this election than any other, there are going to be a lot of counts not concluded on Saturday and possibly even Sunday - I just got this hunch that some final seats will come down to a handful of votes - more close run things than ever before.


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    #14
    jmayo
    Registered Users Posts: 13,078 ✭✭✭✭jmayo


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    FFs best hope was a low turnout in which FF/FG/Labour core voters came out, and everyone else said "ah, they're all the same". That's how they got in last time.

    The higher the turnout, the more they get hammered. It'll help Labour/SF/ULA and independents more than FG, see the boards.ie poll.

    Please oh please do not heed the boards poll.
    That is a certain class of people (internet savvy and certain age range) and only a small representation of the real population.

    IMHO ff will be the big losers in high turn out.

    The spread to the other parties will depend on who exactly are coming out that normally would not.

    If they are unemployed urban dwellers from disadavantaged areas then SF will get lot more votes.
    If they are public servants then Labour get more votes.
    If they are middle class who couldn't be ar***d voting before then FG can pick up votes.

    How high FG do in terms of seats will be determined not alone by how many directly vote for them, but how are the votes spread across the parties and independents.


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    #15
    Cavehill Red
    Registered Users Posts: 6,109 ✭✭✭Cavehill Red


    gizmo555 wrote: »
    Why is it bad for FG? Since they are, by a long way, standing highest in the polls, why would a lower turnout favour them? On the other hand, very hard to believe that this is anything but bad for FF - people are not turning out in record numbers to record their unswerving support for them . . .

    I think a high turnout might hurt the FG chances of bringing in those hard-fought final seats. I concur with others that there could be a big left vote out there - maybe splitting between Labour, SF, PBP etc. But a lot of those votes won't end up there. They'll transfer on in many cases, and to where, I really don't know.
    I do have this chilling feeling that, like Tories and DUP voters, the FF hardcore have been lying to pollsters and that their vote will end up having been underplayed. Not by enough to get them within an ass's roar of anything but wipeout, but possibly enough to bump them to 30 seats or beyond.


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    #16
    ei.sdraob
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    jmayo wrote: »
    IMHO ff will be the big losers in high turn out.

    Yes it should hopefully be the final nail in the coffin, they are already infighting as seen in the last few days with Bertie back playing politics


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    #17
    smilerxxx
    Registered Users Posts: 472 ✭✭smilerxxx


    I can stand by my transfers. If I didn't like you, you didn't get a preference. simple as


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    #18
    westtip
    Registered Users Posts: 4,282 ✭✭✭westtip


    jmayo wrote: »
    Please oh please do not heed the boards poll.
    That is a certain class of people (internet savvy and certain age range) and only a small representation of the real population.

    IMHO ff will be the big losers in high turn out.

    .

    Yes indeed the boards poll is IMO going to be wildly wrong - the weighting of demographics clearly shows how skewed it is going to be - I might be wrong but it looks statistically wildly incorrect versus the demographics of the electorate.


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    #19
    takun
    Registered Users Posts: 173 ✭✭takun


    I was in a short queue in the polling booth in Kilkenny this morning (unusual in itself at about 11am) and the three other people waiting with me were all first time voters, 2 had taken a day off work in Dublin and come home to vote. The ones leaving the booth were older, but as I left 2 more had joined the queue who also looked under 25.

    I've been voting since the '70s and I'd have to say its very unusual to see so many younger voters, though it could of course be coincidence. Gives me enormous hope that it's not the FF vote that upping the numbers.


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    #20
    danger man
    Closed Accounts Posts: 51 ✭✭danger man


    iv never seen so meny people turing out to vote in my life.

    its good to see,


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    #21
    bcmf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,679 ✭✭✭bcmf


    FWIW
    I live very close to a polling station in Dublin North and have , since I moved here in mid 90's, never seen as many people heading into polling station. Weather of course is helping.


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    #22
    Inquitus
    Registered Users Posts: 13,729 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    FG will benefit from a high turnout the most imo.


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    #23
    gandalf
    Registered Users Posts: 26,458 ✭✭✭✭gandalf


    I think the key will be the independents the vast majority of whom will not get near being elected but whose transfers will decide an awful lot of seats when they are eliminated. I reservedly agree that this election especially with the final seats could drag on well into Sunday.


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    #24
    Downlinz
    Registered Users Posts: 1,457 ✭✭✭Downlinz


    I'd imagine the alternatives will benefit most from high turnout. SF and Independents mainly.


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    #25
    murphaph
    Registered Users Posts: 19,018 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    FG and Lab will benefit the most as the large number of independents all split the vote and they are eliminated, their transfers will then not fall to FF but to FG and Lab as people do whatever they can but give a pref to FF.

    I really hope this is the end of the FF party but we'll see.

    I agree it's great to hear of high turnouts. I was dreading a totally apathetic public. If it is as high as being rumoured then well done to the electorate, regardless of who you voted for.


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    #26
    Up-n-atom!
    Registered Users Posts: 446 ✭✭Up-n-atom!


    I dunno, I know a lot of younger people swaying towards FG because some of the so-called 'experts' have said they have the most firm economic policies - a lot of these first-time voters aren't confident in their own opinon. I'd say anyone but FF is going to benefit overall - no one I know is voting FF.


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    #27
    joulter
    Registered Users Posts: 115 ✭✭joulter


    i think there will be a huge youth vote. the vote counter on facebook has 110,000 on it now. if that is accurate thats a huge turnout. it will probably favour labour,sf and the left and to a lesser extent fg. ff could be in for the mother of all pastings!


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    #28
    NinjaTruncs
    Registered Users Posts: 2,448 ✭✭✭NinjaTruncs


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    FFs best hope was a low turnout in which FF/FG/Labour core voters came out, and everyone else said "ah, they're all the same". That's how they got in last time.

    There was an "expert" on Newstalk the other day saying a low turnout would mean FF voters were staying away, he suggested out of shame, and if the turnout was high it would be due to FF voters coming out and voting. IMO whether it's a low or high turnout FF will be hammered.

    4.3kWp South facing PV System. South Dublin



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    #29
    gsxr1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,167 ✭✭✭gsxr1


    I think SF will really benefit. Those angry punters with not a pot to pee in are out for revenge .


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    #30
    Inquitus
    Registered Users Posts: 13,729 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    gsxr1 wrote: »
    I think SF will really benefit. Those angry punters with not a pot to pee in are out for revenge .

    The only think voting SF will do is ensure everyone else ends up without a pot to piss in too!


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    #31
    [Jackass]
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,193 ✭✭✭[Jackass]


    FF will be the last to benefit from high turnout, they're being slated in the polls. The bigger the turn out, the more diluted the hardcore FF vote, the less seats they will win.

    You've also got to question why there would be an exceptionally high turnout. This tends to happen when there's a vast appetite for change. The larger the turnout, the larger the disastor this GE will be for FF, and good riddance to them.


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