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Is 2 euro a litre going to matter?

  • 06-03-2012 10:43pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 1,017 ✭✭✭


    Do you guys think if fuel hits 2 euro a litre it'll be a psychological limit and we'll see a good increase in the amount of people cycling?

    And on a side note does anyone think the public transport fare increases will have caused more to cycle?


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,400 ✭✭✭Caroline_ie


    I will keep to my 30euro/month petrol self allowance... that will mean that buying cat litter will no longer be an excuse to take the car.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,595 ✭✭✭happytramp


    Na, I said the same thing at 1.50 didn't make any difference. People will pay whatever they're asked to since we're by and large quite a subservient country.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,268 ✭✭✭irishmotorist


    I think it will mean some sort of change in driving habits. It costs me about €80 to fill the tank at around €1.55 or so per litre at the moment. Stick that up to €2 a litre and it's going to cost well over €100. It amounts to the same thing but I think that notional amount will mean more to people than it being €2/l.

    Whether it moves people to bikes, that remains to be seen.

    Does anybody know, offhand, the average distance that people live from work?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,036 ✭✭✭Surveyor11


    Nah, won't make a jot of difference, we are gluttons for punishment as a nation. I know plenty of people that insist on driving to town and back everyday, even where a bus / train or (shock horror!) bike possibility exists. People will carry on. And crib. A lot.


  • Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 74,773 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭Beasty


    I don't think there is any "magic price" that will result in a significant shift between motoring and cycling. It's more likely to be a gradual thing, with some individuals reaching a point when the consider cycling to be a better all-round option (although they could equally switch to public transport)


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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Regional South East Moderators Posts: 11,391 Mod ✭✭✭✭Captain Havoc


    If I was driving to work five days a week, that would have me spending about €61.55 on petrol, if it was €2 a litre. As it stands now €1.61 I save about €9.90 each time I cycle to work. I think it already has had an effect, judging by what looks like more people riding bicycles in Kilkenny. I don't think a lot of this is down to better cycling conditions but you never know. Here in Kilkenny the corporation are bit by bit making every on-street parking space within the borough boundary payable, which is also adding to the driving bill. I cycle in and out of the city anyway as live within the borough.

    https://ormondelanguagetours.com

    Walking Tours of Kilkenny in English, French or German.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Regional South East Moderators Posts: 11,391 Mod ✭✭✭✭Captain Havoc


    I should add, I saved €86 in February cycling to work based on €1.55 a litre :)

    https://ormondelanguagetours.com

    Walking Tours of Kilkenny in English, French or German.



  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 323 ✭✭emigrate2012


    Of course it will,even if you cycle.Fuel cost's effect everything from private motorists to cyclists.How do you think the food you buy gets into the shop?On a truck. it's silly to think it won't effect you.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 573 ✭✭✭el Bastardo


    I'd have thought that people take up cycling to work for perceived health benefits rather than saving the shekels (I know of only one person who sold the car in favour of the bike and that was in the eighties!).

    I'd imagine that many people need to run a car irrespective of the cost; Not everyone has viable public transport options and cycling isn't always an option when you're getting the kiddies to school, groceries etc. So, no, I doubt it'll change the motorist/cyclist balance much.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,519 ✭✭✭ozzy jr


    I had this conversation before with a fella in work. He said the fuel increase wouldn't effect him as he only ever puts €30 into his car.

    I left it at that.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,727 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    Nah but it might fecking stop me driving over to Three Rock and beyond for MTB spins :( and no it won't make me think a 60km round trip to the bottom of the hill is a good idea either!


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,989 ✭✭✭✭blorg


    Does anybody know, offhand, the average distance that people live from work?
    The average is quite high: 15.82km

    However this figure is distorted somewhat by people with extremely long commutes; the mean is lower.

    49% of all workers have commutes of 0-9km, which seems a reasonable distance to cycle. Half of all commuters is a lot.

    In towns and cities this is a lot higher: 58% have 0-9km commutes. In rural areas commutes are longer; there 35% commute 0-9km.

    Children also have much shorter distances to school on average.

    Source: CSO Census 2006

    http://census.cso.ie/Census/TableViewer/tableView.aspx?ReportId=76541

    http://census.cso.ie/Census/TableViewer/tableView.aspx?ReportId=76593


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,487 ✭✭✭Seweryn


    I do not think it will change much, i.e. there will be 95-99% of today's traffic and the rest 1-5% (5% is very optimistic) will not make that unnecessary journey or use a bike.
    People are too attached to their cars and most of us are too lazy no mater if the fuel is €2 or €10 per litre. I reckon there will still be very comparable amount of cars on the road even if fuel is €10 per litre.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,043 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    Didn't it only make it over 1euro a few years ago which resulted in some half hearted protests, mostly just because people wanted to join in with what they were seeing on the news from the UK at the time?


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,228 ✭✭✭✭ednwireland


    no public transport up here so people will spend less on other stuff

    hardly see anyone on a bike commuting anyway


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,487 ✭✭✭Seweryn


    robinph wrote: »
    Didn't it only make it over 1euro a few years ago which resulted in some half hearted protests, mostly just because people wanted to join in with what they were seeing on the news from the UK at the time?
    Less than three years ago fuel was almost half the price it is at the moment.
    Has anything changed since? Very little in terms of motorised traffic anyway.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,275 ✭✭✭km991148


    I dont think there will be a magic price that stops people from owning a car (it will hit the headlines).

    But I think it will cause a gradual decline - second/third car ownership will fall as they wll simply not be repaced. New driver rates will be the same as people moving from home realise that a car is expensive!

    The problem though is that not many of these people will make it to cycling..(it will be to public transport/mopeds/etc) it will take something else to shift the views of society on what cycling is like.

    Of course none of this is based on any sort of evidence!


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,910 ✭✭✭couerdelion


    I'm 15km away from work and cycle in every now and again but most of the time drive in. As there are two of us in the car it works out cheaper than taking the bus. The cost of fuel won't make much difference to me if public transport cost rise at a proportionate rate.

    However, we will be trying to up the amount of cycling commuting we do anyway purely for fitness (although saving on fuel is good too).


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 20,759 ✭✭✭✭dlofnep


    I'm dependant on my car because of my health. I knew fuel prices would continue to rise, so I consciously bought a small 1.1L car. I only stick a €10-€15 a week into it. That gets me out to Tescos for some speciality food (I'm intolerant to gluten), to the pool and drop the mother to work the odd time if she's stuck. I really don't use it for much else, couldn't afford it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,194 ✭✭✭saa


    I don't think so people seem to have a bigger mental block about cycling a distance further than across Dublin city centre (see I didn't say town), more so than the issue about paying more.

    Literally, when people see I have a bike and ask "Did you cycle" Duuurh no shizz, I brought it on the bus to show it off.
    And then they say where did you cycle from and people are usually horrified
    and I say ah its only 15 miles and I just get back a oh jesus I don't know how you do it.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    I think €2 a litre will in the main just cause people to cut back elsewhere as said above. To a certain extent I think people will try to cut back on the amount they drive, but the problem with driving is that once you get into the habit of it, you start considering all trips as being absolutely necessary.

    You'll find that people think that if something is more than a 15 minute walk away, then they "need" a car in order to get there. I've had the debate a number of times with the, "I was forced to buy outside the city, I need a car to function" brigade a number of times, and when you point out the reality that they choose to live where they are and therefore choose to drive, you're usually told to "get real".

    If petrol goes to €2/litre and the government follows through on their car tax hike, what we'll see evolving here is a very Japanese style of road use where most people start buying exceptionally compact vehicles and efficient vehicles like this and relying a lot more heavily on public transport. The days of tying your ego to the size of your car are numbered in this country.

    It could actually be the long-awaited kickstart that public transport has needed. There's always been a chicken-and-egg thing going on there where they can't justify investing in public transport without an increase in passengers, and they can't get an increase in passengers without investing. If people are forced to switch, the investment will follow.

    I don't think any significant number of people will switch to cycling, though I do think people will see it as a viable alternative for their kids to get to the local school rather than doing the school run and spending a fiver to get there. People whinge on about safety concerns, but if their pocket is taking the hit, they'll be practically pushing the kid out onto the road to save money.


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,337 Mod ✭✭✭✭CramCycle


    I have a car, wish i didn't but the missus insists. My only issue is that wherever I park it someone leaves a note complaining even though it is legally parked. I presume they think it is abandoned because it doesn't move much. I only move it because I'm worried that someone would damage/tow it out of spite.

    I have no problem with the price of fuel, the only time I drive is when its necessary, and it is always cheaper than public transport.

    Although with Irish Rail offering 20euro fares for students with any student ID, I may be using it for the Midleton 200 this weekend.


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,337 Mod ✭✭✭✭CramCycle


    saa wrote: »
    I don't think so people seem to have a bigger mental block about cycling a distance further than across Dublin city centre (see I didn't say town), more so than the issue about paying more.

    Literally, when people see I have a bike and ask "Did you cycle" Duuurh no shizz, I brought it on the bus to show it off.
    And then they say where did you cycle from and people are usually horrified
    and I say ah its only 15 miles and I just get back a oh jesus I don't know how you do it.

    LOL, one of my students was amazed I cycle in, saying it took an hour by bus. I pointed out it only took 25 minutes or less by bike.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,249 ✭✭✭Tenzor07


    Forget about commuters, I think higher petrol costs may also have an effect on races, people will be more picky about which events they attend...Only choosing races in Dublin and immediately surrounding counties for example...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 20,297 ✭✭✭✭Jawgap


    Over the short term, people will modify their behaviour, but I think cycling is waaaaay down the hierarchy of measures people would consider adopting in the face of rising fuel prices.

    As an economist might say - in the long run, I'd suggest we'll see the following trends:
    1. People opting for one car per household - we have two but we really only need one, if one of them was to be rendered unroadworthy, I doubt we'd replace it.
    2. Increased property prices and rents as property close to town / city centres becomes more sought after
    3. Cheaper public transport - more people using it, should lead to cheaper fares (?!?)
    4. Less annoying posts in the Motors forum:)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 20,297 ✭✭✭✭Jawgap


    CramCycle wrote: »
    LOL, one of my students was amazed I cycle in, saying it took an hour by bus. I pointed out it only took 25 minutes or less by bike.

    First time I cycled into work (from Rathfarnham) on a crapped out old mountain bike, I was stunned when it took a shade under 20 minutes - it normally took about 40 minutes in the car - been converted to cycling ever since then!!

    On a related note, a lot of people I work with live in Castleknock and I really don't understand why they none of them cycle to work - it's 10km, through the Park. I can understand not wanting to cycle on the Quays, but there are alternative route - I mean, who wouldn't want to cycle in the Park on a morning like this morning?


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,256 Mod ✭✭✭✭Borderfox


    Unfortunately as fuel prices rise so will public transport, I would like to think that €2 is the breaking point for people to flip out.
    seamus wrote: »
    I think €2 a litre will in the main just cause people to cut back elsewhere as said above. To a certain extent I think people will try to cut back on the amount they drive, but the problem with driving is that once you get into the habit of it, you start considering all trips as being absolutely necessary.

    You'll find that people think that if something is more than a 15 minute walk away, then they "need" a car in order to get there. I've had the debate a number of times with the, "I was forced to buy outside the city, I need a car to function" brigade a number of times, and when you point out the reality that they choose to live where they are and therefore choose to drive, you're usually told to "get real".

    If petrol goes to €2/litre and the government follows through on their car tax hike, what we'll see evolving here is a very Japanese style of road use where most people start buying exceptionally compact vehicles and efficient vehicles like this and relying a lot more heavily on public transport. The days of tying your ego to the size of your car are numbered in this country.

    It could actually be the long-awaited kickstart that public transport has needed. There's always been a chicken-and-egg thing going on there where they can't justify investing in public transport without an increase in passengers, and they can't get an increase in passengers without investing. If people are forced to switch, the investment will follow.

    I don't think any significant number of people will switch to cycling, though I do think people will see it as a viable alternative for their kids to get to the local school rather than doing the school run and spending a fiver to get there. People whinge on about safety concerns, but if their pocket is taking the hit, they'll be practically pushing the kid out onto the road to save money.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,005 ✭✭✭JH_raheny


    petrol prices is defo one of the reasons I want start cycling to work, that and fitness, a colleague of mine lives near me and cycles in and it takes him 40 min - 1hour depending on wind/weather, it takes an hour in the car getting home when I leave at 5pm so something to said for it timewise as well


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,230 ✭✭✭Solair


    Eh, well you might see a few more people cycling. At least those for whom it might be a possibility.

    However, in rural areas it just means people being seriously isolated as they can't afford to drive and distances are too long to cycle or walk.

    It means the cost of absolutely every consumer good, and food increasing drastically as *every* type of transport in Ireland relies on oil-based fuel i.e. vans, trucks, trains, boats, aircraft.

    It will mean that quite a significant number of businesses will fail due to drastically increased overheads.

    It may mean a few more cyclists, but it will mean a lot of people are going to end up very financially damaged and it will be really bad for the economy as a whole.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 533 ✭✭✭StaggerLee


    I dont think you'll get many more Bike commuters. I split my commuting between cycling and driving, its a 40k round trip. I dont want to cycle it 5 days a week. We have 2 cars, I only use mine to get to and from work, my car is getting on a bit now so I'm probably going to swap it for a motorbike as I have a license, they are much cheaper to run and 2 wheels is the only way to travel through the city.

    We might see more scooters on the road, a little 50cc scooter for people to get in and out of town on. I dont think you need a license for those either once you have a standard car license.


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