Winter 2011/2012

snow ghost · 02-12-2011 7:32pm

mcriot29,

I've heard him talk about foxs' behaviour and farm animals and I have to admit I have witnessed similar behaviour and the exact weather happening shortly afterwards.

mcriot29 · 02-12-2011 7:37pm

Its very intresting stuff esp if he does not use models or pdo etc just going by nature etc
I know in the early 1900s the farmers seem to predict snow etc well before it came a great grandfather of mine was said to be very good

Tindie · 02-12-2011 9:05pm

Winter maybe here sooner then we think!

Check this link out!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/16011619
Posted today at Last updated at 17:16

That cheers me up little, long as we have taste of winter, i can for wait big freeze in Jan

pistolpetes11 · 02-12-2011 10:09pm

So whats the weather doing then ?

snow ghost · 02-12-2011 10:24pm

Su Campu wrote: »

What hurricane? There was no hurricane in England in 1987. Do we have to go through the whole misquoting argument again? There was a fierce windstorm alright, which the models had forecast heading further south than it did. It's a popular thing though to still insist on misquoting him, leaving out the rest of what he actually said, i.e. "but it is going to get mighty windy though...".

There is no argument, fierce wind storm is fine by me, there is no deep dark sinsiter motive to me calling it a hurricane, I simply thought that was what occured.

Have you a salient point to make regarding the substance of my post?

Su Campu · 02-12-2011 10:29pm

snow ghost wrote: »

There is no argument, fierce wind storm is fine by me, there is no deep dark sinsiter motive to me calling it a hurricane, I simply thought that was what occured.

Have you a salient point to make regarding the substance of my post?

That it's wrong to incorrectly use this misquote to say that it would be better to go with the fish than with Fish!

Anyway, I've moved all that discussion to the new animals thread, so let's all get back on topic here.

nacho libre · 02-12-2011 11:10pm

looking ahead, maybe with the stratosphere so cold it can only swing the other way eventually??

Could the polar vortex eventually move towards Canada without a major warming event in the stratosphere?, thereby allowing heights to rise in Scandinavia.

I think in the current setup we can definitely rule out a major Greenland high developing.

only one · 02-12-2011 11:16pm

I just want snow in the south east this winter. Any bit of snow we get where I'm from is a snow flake on the flipping hills.

homersimpson · 02-12-2011 11:29pm

I have Micheal's book and I have to say its an interesting read

konman · 02-12-2011 11:30pm

only one wrote: »

I just want snow in the south east this winter. Any bit of snow we get where I'm from is a snow flake on the flipping hills.

i have a lot of relations in the southeast and they had nearly 2 foot of snow at one stage last december. where are you located only one?

nacho libre · 02-12-2011 11:33pm

only one wrote: »

I just want snow in the south east this winter. Any bit of snow we get where I'm from is a snow flake on the flipping hills.

If M.T's forecast is correct, you'll maybe in business come January. In this current setup; of polar maritime air, the west and northwest are favoured for any snow that's going. Although any snow we get will be wet and fleeting(still any kind of snow, is better than no snow at all!)

only one · 02-12-2011 11:34pm

konman wrote: »

only one wrote: »

I just want snow in the south east this winter. Any bit of snow we get where I'm from is a snow flake on the flipping hills.

i have a lot of relations in the southeast and they had nearly 2 foot of snow at one stage last december. where are you located only one?

East cork west Waterford area. In a valley. We get the least of the snow

konman · 02-12-2011 11:42pm

only one wrote: »

East cork west Waterford area. In a valley. We get the least of the snow

thats very borderline southeast, parden the pun. that would explain alot

Pangea · 03-12-2011 3:59am

Snow fell in Cumbria, England today.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2069125/Englands-snowfall-Cumbria-way-weekend.html

Newtown90 · 03-12-2011 10:28am

The forecast this morning is looking well for a good freeze and maybe a sprinkle of snow this week coming

:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

Lucreto · 03-12-2011 12:48pm

It looked on the weather last night they were reluctant to mention snow even met eireann didn't mention it.

Today they mention it for Ulster.

ShytePryde · 03-12-2011 12:50pm

http://www.planetski.eu/news/3292

Finally snowing in the alps.

WolfeIRE · 03-12-2011 1:51pm

NAO Ensembles showing a continuing downward trend post mid December. MTC's Winter forecast of a possible outbreak of very cold weather pre xmas and/or during xmas period as well as a colder January on track.

BEASTERLY · 03-12-2011 2:15pm

WolfeIRE wrote: »

NAO Ensembles showing a continuing downward trend post mid December. MTC's Winter forecast of a possible outbreak of very cold weather pre xmas and/or during xmas period as well as a colder January on track.

I dont think this is showing up on the model runs at all yet, any idea when they might start to pick up on this?

BEASTERLY · 03-12-2011 2:20pm

Actually look at the latest projections...:(

NAO:

AO:

Oh well there's always winter 12/13!:pac:

pistolpetes11 · 03-12-2011 2:23pm

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Actually look at the latest projections...:(

NAO:

AO:

Oh well there's always winter 12/13!:pac:

I said yesterday they looked like taking a bump up before heading back down on a downward trend

WolfeIRE · 03-12-2011 2:31pm

BEASTERLY wrote: »

I dont think this is showing up on the model runs at all yet, any idea when they might start to pick up on this?

They tend not to until closer to the time, Beasterly. Between now and mid Dec, at least, we are stuck in the same mild, cold, mild, cold setup. Having said that it is noticeable that each short cold snap is becoming progressively more aggressive than the previous. My honest opinion is that we will probably not see any sustained, widespread cold until early to mid January. This is not to say that that periods of 2-3 days of wintry weather will not occur in between.

The GEFS ensembles (below) show this cold, mild, cold...scenario which more or less suggest that temperatures for much of the month will be close to or slightly below average overall. High pressure to our south and a series of low pressure systems to our north will guaranteeably keep us in a sw-w (mild) to nw-nnw (cold) setup in the run up to Christmas at least. Ulster, north Leinster and north Connacht will always be favoured for snowfall in such a setup.

What happens beyond this period is where I would look at the NAO ensembles and hope that a change in the setup of the past few weeks and coming fortnight or more will occur, allowing for a more favourable wintry setup for all of Ireland i.e. a shift in the jetstream and/or a block pattern emerging allowing for cold air to our NE or North to make its way toward us.

In the meantime, for all but the N and NW of Ireland it's a case of hoping that wintry setups during the short cold snaps are on the right sight of marginal.

WolfeIRE · 03-12-2011 2:34pm

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

I said yesterday they looked like taking a bump up before heading back down on a downward trend

Let's hope that is just a speedbump, Pete. A little too dramatic. Next run should tell us eitherway. The downward trend has been slow but consistent in recent days.

tzfrantic · 03-12-2011 3:25pm

from cavan to meath how much colder would cavan be like tomorrow it says dublin will be 6 degress while dongal 4 degrees were would cavna temp fall into

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 03-12-2011 3:26pm

tzfrantic wrote: »

from cavan to meath how much colder would cavan be like tomorrow it says dublin will be 6 degress while dongal 4 degrees were would cavna temp fall into

5 ?

mcriot29 · 03-12-2011 3:43pm

peirs has a new video up about this winter forecast

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ozm2wem7BMo&feature=uploademail

also NAO and AO are still above 1 or 2 plus 14 days out so still know dipp yet we need -1 to see any diff

ao.mrf.gif

notice 14 days out its still up at record highs no sign of any dipp really i cant see it going any lower then -1 this side of xmas last year it was -4

models even show a mild jan long way off but still shows no real cold

cfs-2-888.png?

tzfrantic · 03-12-2011 4:01pm

why is cavan much colder then meath

StormGazer.11 · 03-12-2011 5:25pm

Is it just me or are there others starting to loose faith that this winter is going to bring some snow? Now I know that the models are changing everyday but there just doesn't seem to be much left pointing to proper cold? (Or is there, I'm well open for someone to prove me wrong here

actually I'm hoping someone can) Honestly do ye think that we could see a significant dip in the AO and NAO in early to mid January or will it carry on in the mild cold mild cold setup? Just looking for some of ye're thoughts on this guys, for some renewed Christmas cheer!

mcriot29 · 03-12-2011 5:30pm

I think best shot for a big dip in AO NAO wont be till at least mid jan im thinking end of jan into feb of course no one can say but vogan and madden think around 15 to 25th of dec it will dip
I have to say now i dont feel it will dip much in dec the Ao wont but NAO could dip a bit

BEASTERLY · 03-12-2011 5:40pm

StormGazer.11 wrote: »

Is it just me or are there others starting to loose faith that this winter is going to bring some snow? Now I know that the models are changing everyday but there just doesn't seem to be much left pointing to proper cold? (Or is there, I'm well open for someone to prove me wrong here actually I'm hoping someone can) Honestly do ye think that we could see a significant dip in the AO and NAO in early to mid January or will it carry on in the mild cold mild cold setup? Just looking for some of ye're thoughts on this guys, for some renewed Christmas cheer!

I never had faith in this winter. I thought the fact that we had two cold winters in a row meant that the chance of another happening this year was slim! I found it amusing that people actually thought it would definitely happen again this year! But what really made me LOL hard was long range forecasts for the cold start around the 26th of November purely based on the fact that that's when it started last year so it will this year as well! :rolleyes:

There seems to be an astounding lack of basic understanding of how the atmosphere works among these so called ''forecasters''!

Still have a twinkle of hope though!

Winter 2011/2012

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