Torrent users beware

You're right of course Paul, but I think we might see a move towards downloading-as-the-norm quicker than you think. First of all there's the rapidly increasing download speeds, which we're just starting to see here in Ireland, as a shadow of what's happening elsewhere in the world. Although the major speed increases are happening in big urban areas - and they are major increases, as you know - that's where most of the music-buying public probably live anyway, and let's be honest, that's where most of the people are. The faster those connections get, the closer to perfect digital copies we get without being a burden on our connections.

Now the phrase "perfect digital copies" is one that strikes fear into the label's hearts (or it would if they had any), but as you've argued yourself in our previous discussion, nothing can stop physics. Connections will get faster as scientists push the limits of technology, and people have already proven that they want faster connections. If people want, ISPs will deliver, and the labels on their own - no matter how powerful - aren't going to be able to stop that. This means that, in time, people are going to download music - perfect digital copies of music - and the label's will have but two choices: Piss or get off the pot.

Right now, they're trying to do both, and the metaphor covers this nicely too: They're pissing all over themselves with everything they try. Every DRM solution they've come up with has been broken, or has broken people's computers. Every downloader they've sued has created ten more. Every Wilco they screw with pushes another ten bands to the indies. And it's this last screwup that's most likely to kill them: the indies know that CDs are becoming the exception; the indies know that the big money for artists is in performance, and they aren't fighting that; the indies know about the long tail, and are already leveraging it.

Most importantly the indies know that the distribution networks that define big labels are going to be on the way out in five years, and will be dead in ten. By then the minority of people that still want to buy CDs will be ordering them from terminals in their local supermarket, and having the entire thing delivered over the Internet, and produced and printed right in front of their eyes. The majority will be happy with their electronic copies of artwork and inserts, and even if they aren't, there's nothing stopping those self-same machines taking their downloaded copy and swapping it for the "real thing"; for a fee of course.

On price, well, perhaps I'm old-fashioned but I believe that most people ultimately want to be honest. So I believe that if the prices were reasonable and no barriers are put in the way of my using my music fairly, the majority of people will take the honest route.

adam