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Probability of English Poetry

  • 02-02-2014 12:28am
    #1
    PRDY
    Registered Users Posts: 23 ✭


    If you study 4/8 poets, what is the probability that one you have studied will come up?

    The question is based on poets coming up at random.

    There are 8 poets on the course and 4 come up in the exam.


Comments

  • #2
    FHB
    Registered Users Posts: 136 ✭✭FHB


    If I've calculated correctly, 98.57%

    Using my limited knowledge of probability from maths:

    There are 70 different possibilities. With 4 poets covered, that leaves just one option with 4 poets that you haven't covered. Therefore the probability is 69/70(a.k.a 98.57%)

    Pretty rotten luck if that 1.43% comes up. I'd study 5 to be safe though.


  • #3
    peekachoo
    Registered Users Posts: 11,971 ✭✭✭✭peekachoo


    Fun fact.
    Im repeating and 4 poets overlap from last year to this years course.

    My teacher told me what poets are coming up on the pre paper because out of the 4 I had none of them done, and had to study one of the poets who is on the paper.
    Yeah it's more than likely you'll get a poet you've studied but it's not reaaaally worth the chance.


  • #4
    thelad95
    Registered Users Posts: 7,812 ✭✭✭thelad95


    From my experience of doing the Leaving Cert last year very few people actually study 5. There is always one buzz poet who is hotly tipped to come up who everyone studies for and when they do come up it is over-answered and as a result very difficult to score highly on. My advice would be to study 3 of your favourites and have one as 'a back-up just in case.
    I would seriously advise staying away from heaney unless you really like his poetry and know it inside out.


  • #5
    robman60
    Registered Users Posts: 2,222 ✭✭✭robman60


    Mathematically, the probability of not getting a poet if you study four is 1/70 I think, although I'm not certain.

    Personally, I'll do 3 in good detail and then another two as backup. It's just too much of a risk to leave the possibility of not getting the opportunity to answer the question.

    My teacher told us he corrected a script where a student had clearly banked on a certain poet that didn't appear. He proceeded to answer on a different poet, answering as if he were the poet he had banked on. 0/50 marks.

    I'll be doing the following poets, from top to bottom in order of my preference:
    -Yeats
    -Dickinson
    -Kinsella
    -Bishop
    -Heaney


  • #6
    htdoll
    Registered Users Posts: 3 ✭htdoll


    Well when you think of it there's only 3 women on our poetry course this year and a woman always comes up every year as with an Irish poet


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  • #7
    robman60
    Registered Users Posts: 2,222 ✭✭✭robman60


    htdoll wrote: »
    Well when you think of it there's only 3 women on our poetry course this year and a woman always comes up every year as with an Irish poet

    Always, as in until now. There's no guarantee that this will be the case in future. This could be the year that there's no woman on the course, so it's not a guarantee.


  • #8
    Bbbbolger
    Registered Users Posts: 448 ✭✭Bbbbolger


    Take it from painful experience that studying 4 out of 8 poets does not leave you covered. Yes, there is the distinct probability that one of them will come up but some people always get caught out. When I did the Leaving Cert 3 years ago it was me and there's no worse feeling than seeing none of your prepared poets come up in a subject that you wanted a top grade in. I ended up having to repeat based on my misfortune. Most people who take the gamble will be fine but there's always that small percentage who aren't. If you have the time, which at this stage you still do, at least prepare a 5th poet in basic detail. Be able to get at least half marks for a question on them in case of a worst case scenario. Then in the test you can do that and have extra time to focus on improving the questions you know well.


  • #9
    thelad95
    Registered Users Posts: 7,812 ✭✭✭thelad95


    Bbbbolger wrote: »
    Take it from painful experience that studying 4 out of 8 poets does not leave you covered. Yes, there is the distinct probability that one of them will come up but some people always get caught out. When I did the Leaving Cert 3 years ago it was me and there's no worse feeling than seeing none of your prepared poets come up in a subject that you wanted a top grade in. I ended up having to repeat based on my misfortune. Most people who take the gamble will be fine but there's always that small percentage who aren't. If you have the time, which at this stage you still do, at least prepare a 5th poet in basic detail. Be able to get at least half marks for a question on them in case of a worst case scenario. Then in the test you can do that and have extra time to focus on improving the questions you know well.

    Jesus that is unlucky! All I can say is that a lot of things happen for a reason and eventually you find out what that reason was.


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