[pancakes rule]

The EU treaty will force member states to stick to balanced budgets from now on with harsher rules to drive expenditure down. By signing this treaty, the government will effectively commit itself to introducing €6bil in tax increases and spending cuts. This is on top of the €8.6 bil in spending cuts and tax increases over the next three years. Not only will we be signing up for lots of extra austerity, but the treaty is making keynsian and socialist policies illegal and will tie the hands of any future government to the same measures.
I we fail to meet the target of .1% we'll be fined by the european court of justice which will send us into an ongoing debt spiral.
Article 9 says to cut wages and there is a significant proposal to shift budgetary power from elected governments to the unelected european commission and european council.
Either way, we're ****ed. Basically. BUT, if we vote against the treaty, we retain our democratic power which we will ****ing want.
It's an austerity treaty, but it's also a treaty to give the elite more power straight out of our hands.

Anyway, many more will be plunged into personal debt. Where's the money going to come from to save them? The banks? If the banks don't borrow there won't be enough money, and if they do we can say hello to another banking crisis. Ireland will only be able to borrow money for limited public works which will mean very very few jobs being created that way. Austerity isn't working and right wing economists have started to accept this. And now we're enshrining austerity into our constitution. Great.

[TheZohanS]

Originally Posted by amacachi

Vote yes - We'll have to keep our budget balanced and we'll be allowed access to the ESM fund.
Vote no - Our governments can still spend us into oblivion and there'll be no European help.


Given how everyone has been giving out about how irresponsible our politicians were and are I don't see why those same people would encourage a "No" vote.

There'll be no European help? Can you provide a link or a source where the EU has come out and said that there'll be no more EU help if we vote no?

I'm pretty sure I heard an economist come out and say that the existing framework meant that we could indeed get more funding from the EU and that the treaty would not change that.

[bbam]

Originally Posted by TheZohan

There'll be no European help? Can you provide a link or a source where the EU has come out and said that there'll be no more EU help if we vote no?

But isn't it the case that we cannot access the permanent bailout fund if we do not agree to the treaty??

That's quite different to an economist assuming they'll give us a dig out because "what else would they do"...

More than any other Referendum we need some facts published and not assumptions or Chinese whispers...

[dvpower]

Originally Posted by TheZohan

There'll be no European help? Can you provide a link or a source where the EU has come out and said that there'll be no more EU help if we vote no?

I'm pretty sure I heard an economist come out and say that the existing framework meant that we could indeed get more funding from the EU and that the treaty would not change that.

The current bailout deal remains in place - there will be no change to that.

Its clear that a no vote excludes us from the ESM, which is the future eurozone rescue fund, so its difficult how the EU could provide us with future help - but maybe individual EU states could loan us money on a bilateral basis or they could come up with a special fund just for us - but it would be a massive risk, given the likelihood of our requiring a future bailout.

[lugha]

Whatever the practical effect of a no vote the message it sends would be interesting.

The popular cries from the Irish people in the current economic crisis is that the reckless management of your economy was solely the work of the political and banking classes, that the people themselves never endorsed such behaviour.

But when we are asked to approve of measures that would curtail and punish exactly that kind of recklessness…. we say no!!

[TheZohanS]

Originally Posted by dvpower

The current bailout deal remains in place - there will be no change to that.

Its clear that a no vote excludes us from the ESM, which is the future eurozone rescue fund, so its difficult how the EU could provide us with future help - but maybe individual EU states could loan us money on a bilateral basis or they could come up with a special fund just for us - but it would be a massive risk, given the likelihood of our requiring a future bailout.

Hmmm...well the government came out this week and said that we definitely wouldn't need another bailout and we would have to contribute €9.87+ billion to this fund, that's a lot of money.

I think at this point that we'd be better off without it.

[squod]

Originally Posted by lugha

But when we are asked to approve of measures that would curtail and punish exactly that kind of recklessness…. we say no!!

Errrrr, I don't see your point. How are these fiscal penalties going to effect these classes exactly? The worker will lose out again ultimately. You do know that, right?

[dvpower]

Originally Posted by TheZohan

Hmmm...well the government came out this week and said that we definitely wouldn't need another bailout and we would have to contribute €9.87+ billion to this fund, that's a lot of money.

I'm sure you don't believe the Government when they say that. They just say this in the hope that the markets start believing it. Its just a confidence game.

As for our contribution - we don't have to contribute anything. The plan is that the fund is so large that the markets think there will be enough money to deal with any eventuality. No one needs to pay a cent unless and until the fund is required. Its just a confidence game.

[TheZohanS]

Originally Posted by dvpower

I'm sure you don't believe the Government when they say that. They just say this in the hope that the markets start believing it. Its just a confidence game.

As for our contribution - we don't have to contribute anything. The plan is that the fund is so large that the markets think there will be enough money to deal with any eventuality. No one needs to pay a cent unless and until the fund is required. Its just a confidence game.

See below:

Thus, Ireland’s share of the €80 billion paid in capital will be just above €1.273 billion, to be paid in five equal instalments starting in July 2013. This will be paid from our annual budget. Ireland’s share of the €620 billion callable capital will amount to €9.87164 billion.

[hmmm]

Originally Posted by OldNotWIse

Well even if we vote No, they will simply ask us to vote again and then all the sheep will vote Yes...

"They" don't care. This vote is whether or not we want to be part of their club, if we say no then "they" will wish us well on our own and get on with fixing their economies.