IReland in 5 years time : what will happen if

Après the vote
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The different scenarios: A look at what would happen if Ireland rejects, or accepts, the Treaty.

Scenario one: If Ireland votes No...

The Treaties currently in operation in the EU, last amended by the Nice Treaty, will remain standing as they are now.

The European reaction to Ireland's result is open to conjecture and has been predicted to range from EU-wide chaos to virtually no reaction at all. Commission President José Manuel Barroso has re-iterated that there is no 'Plan B' if Ireland rejects the ratification of Lisbon.

It is possible that Ireland would hold another referendum later in the year, perhaps after further negotiations, to keep the door open for Ireland to get on board with the Treaty. There is also the possibility that the other 26 countries will continue with the ratification process and all Member States, bar Ireland, will move forward with the Lisbon Treaty. In this situation, Ireland would have to negotiate how it would engage with this group.

The Yes side says that if Ireland rejects it, the Treaty will collapse and Member States will come together in groups to move forward on areas where they have been frustrated by the Irish vote.

The No side says that a 'no' vote opens up an opportunity for re-negotiation for a more favourable Treaty for Ireland.



Scenario two: If Ireland votes Yes...

If each of the other Member States successfully ratifies the Treaty, The Treaty amending the Treaty on European Union and the Treaty Establishing the European Community, (i.e. The Lisbon Treaty), will come into effect on 1 January 2009.

Every country keeps its veto on military matters.

Every country keeps its veto on taxation issues. Other Member States cannot run an enhanced co-operation if it conflicts with the laws of the Union or distorts competition.

Guidelines will be laid down for leaving the EU if a Member State so chooses. There is also an article outlining how the EU will react towards a Member State which breaches the EU's objectives as laid down in the Treaties. The Council may decide to suspend that Member States' voting rights in the Council.

The clause known as the 'Citizens' Initiative' will be introduced whereby not less than 1m citizens from a significant number of Member States can submit a legislative proposal to the Commission for its consideration, (but must be related to the Treaties and the Commission is not compelled to act on it after the period of consideration).

The new office of the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy will replace both the EC vice-president and the High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy positions simultaneously. Javier Solana, currently the High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy, is rumoured to be in line for the position, if he is not too exhausted by that time.

The European Parliament will become an EU institution and, operating under 'co-decision' together with the Council, will legislate on a wide area of EU competence. This adoption procedure means that the Council of the EU (representing the people) and the European Parliament (representing the States) can both reject a proposal of the Commission. This extension of the co-decision procedure applies to judicial and police co-operation.

The European Parliament and the Council will now determine together all annual expenditures, and the Parliament must approve the multi-annual agreement that frames the level and structure of the EU budget for a seven-year period.

The European Parliament will also have to approve the international agreements signed by the EU in a large number of areas.

The European Central Bank will become one of the official institutions of the EU, bound by the same code as the other institutions. The Lisbon Treaty does not include an article that ensures the bank's independence.

The Charter on Fundamental Human Rights is granted full legal status through the Lisbon Treaty.

The European Council will become an official EU institution under the Lisbon Treaty, with a President holding office for a term of 2.5 years. Currently, this position is rotated between the Member States every six months. Persons rumoured to have an interest in the position include Tony Blair and serving Commission President, José Manuel Barroso.

The 'pillar structure' of the EU would be abolished under Lisbon, creating one EU legal personality. The 'pillar structure' refers to the way the EU current operates. The first pillar covers the European Community, which currently has legal personality. The second pillar covers Common Foreign and Security Policy. The third pillar concerns Police and Judicial Co-operation in Criminal Matters. These three currently comprise the EU and will be consolidated into one legal form if the Lisbon Treaty is ratified.

The 'solidarity clause' obliges Member States to assist one another if attacked or if struck by a natural disaster but does not specify what kind of assistance should be offered.

The Nice Treaty reduces the number of Commissioners regardless of what happens in the Lisbon Treaty referendum but there is a get-out clause to delay or cancel the reduction if the Member States unanimously agree to bin the idea.

Ireland is already part of the Euratom Treaty since 1973 and has to continue to contribute financially to research programmes under Euratom.