The Fiscal Treaty Yes or No

alinton wrote: »

The referendum is effectively about whether we allow foreigners to have more non-elected control of our country, or not.

The reason there IS a referendum is that the constitution prohibits a government handing control of the country to a foreign body without the agreement of the populace.

Every time Ireland hands even more control over to foreigners, I feel a little sad, since Ireland fought long and hard for it's independence. Now we're giving that independence away, little by little.

Ireland being in the EU has not been a universal Good Thing. If we weren't in the Euro we could have devalued our currency a couple of years ago, and that would have helped our economy hugely.

If there wasn't the cushion of European funds, our governments might not have been so wasteful and profligate over the years: Imagine, if you had an uncle who you knew would lend you money anytime you needed it, you might not be so careful about your housekeeping.

Instead of saying we need to keep Uncle happy, we should instead be saying that we need to get our own house in order. That means starting to run the country more efficiently by forcing the civil service into the 21st century, and forcing them to stop being so wasteful.

Our current government have given up trying to save money by making their end of things more efficient, but instead they're grabbing more and more money off us. Instead of trimming their outgoings, they are trying to increase their incomings.

However - until the government convince me that its best to hand over more control of the country to people we haven't voted to run our country, I'll be voting no.

*

Except. I really don't think there are any politicians in Ireland who are either not corrupt or possess the ability to manage the company that is Ireland Ltd. proficiently. All recent governments, whatever colour, have shown that they are either completely incompetent, or dishonest, or both.

Maybe foreigners would do it better.

So what to do?



Andy

We have been handing power to "foreigners" since we joined Europe, just like everyone else. You cant operate in a union without abiding by certain rules, regulations and structures. The treaty is all about preventing us spending significantly more than we take in on a given year (60%) - something we have proven throughout history not to be able to manage independently. The reason we are in the mess that has caused so much austerity is because we have over spent so much. This time, we did it again but much worse that we needed a bailout.

As part of the bailout we were told - "If you want our money, its because your finances are a mess. We are not here to give you money to continue overspending. You must cut down. We suggest X, Y and Z". Fianna Fail, as the previous government, agreed to a full package to get the deal and try refinance the country.

What's the harm in having a third party which our spending habits, and issue sanctions if we go overboard? Yes it hands more independence away, but is it not for our own good? Whatever about future bailouts if we vote no, there is nothing at all stopping any future government for overspending to such a point where its royally screwed and very harsh (much harsher) austerity needs to be brought in - they go it alone, without the help of Europe.

The treaty reinforces older treaties with tighter control and more punishment, while giving us access to bailouts if we need it in future. Who knows, maybe in 2015/2016 a mini-top up might be needed to keep the ship steady? We are battling a very tough economic crisis caused by reckless spending - lets not forget that and I think we could do with avoiding it again.

witless1 wrote: »

Because Kenny committed us to it and signed something that he didn't have the mandate to under our constitution?

Because if 12 countries ratify it, it will come into force.


It makes the vote a bit of a joke really, like Nice, like Lisbon, they will ask us once, get a No, ask us twice and hope for a yes, if they don't get it who says they won't ask a third time. If they get 12 countries on board will they even bother asking us a second time?

It cant become law unless we say so. They can not force the treaty upon us. Our constitution protects us from that as does the treaty itself which states in Article 14 that each country will ratify the Treaty according to its own requirements.

Plus, people were asked to vote again because it was very much a case of a campaign which was 80% misinformation, extreme scaremongering (abortion, conscription, etc), a anti-government vote (not caring about the treaty but wanting to reflect the anger this way) and because previous administrations made little or no effort to explain the treaty. Lets be realistic here, its well known we reject referendums not because of the contents of the treaty but because we want to get at the government.

forfuxsake wrote: »

If you are on the dole or PS wages you have two options:

Vote Yes: Your dole payment/PS wage will not be cut immediately. It will however continue to be cut over the next few budgets as this will be necessary to reduce borrowings. At the same time there will be tax rises and higher household charges/water charge etc meaning that you will be effectively much worse off. There is unlikely to be much employment created and unemployment could get worse.

Vote no: Who knows, could endanger future bailouts meaning the dole/PS wages might fall quite quickly and sharply. Ireland could have to leave the euro. On the plus side, after such a heavy fall then growth could begin meaning that new jobs would be created.

Private sector will probably mostly vote yes to maintain current wages etc. Many I know will vote NO, hoping to collapse the welfare system and Croke Park.

I am voting YO

Your mostly correct for voting Yes, bar employment issue. Employment is creeping up and the government have said they don't expect there to be much rise in that department for a few years yet. Nobody expects a downward spiral but instead a more positive upward growing jobs market which is clearly being indicated at the moment through job announcements like Microsoft, Apple, Google, Facebook, Paypal and so on.

If you vote No, everything you said will happen if we vote Yes will happen anyway including employment issues. Ireland will be seen as risky, unsteady and after strong improvements they have seriously rocked the boat. Firms will think twice before investing into Ireland, many holding back until the economic crisis facing the country stabilizes. Thus, less jobs and even more austerity by voting No (partly on the assumption we need future bailouts and cant meet our over spending problem but investment still a risk at being rocked by a No vote).

alinton wrote: »

...but only within the countries that voted for it. Its not an EU-wide thing already, as the UK isn't taking part.

I hate the way they bandy phrases around, like 'fiscal compact' - that no-one knows the meaning of.

A compact is a thing ladies keep face powder in.

What I think it means in this context is that the fiscal 'world' within the EU will be 'compacted' as the unelected European Commission (or actually a subset of) will have more control of all partaking countries' economies.

Now, the EU is totally and institutionally corrupt. They won't even agree to have their own financial affairs publicly audited - probably because all the waste, inefficiency and corruption would then become all to obvious, and the whole shooting match would collapse.

So I'm not sure I trust that shower to spend my pocket money for me, let along run a country's economy.


A.

Jargons are widespread in treaties alright, but this treaty is that bit easier (and smaller) to understand. Also, the governments information website has a mini jargon buster on terms - that and the website, plus a 40 page booklet (which includes the treaty itself) is being sent out to every home next week. That, is one massive improvement on any other administration attempts at communicating with us on a treaty! http://www.stabilitytreaty.ie/index.php/en/media/article/jargon_buster/

Anyway, re; your concerns about how the EU spend your pocket money / run your economy. Right now, we are meeting all our targets from a partly re-negotiated agreement on how we spend our money in certain areas. There are signs of improvement. This agreement is from the EU / IMF. Seems to be working relatively well at the moment.

We have let the government run our own economy, and we still will in many ways, in the past. How many times have we gotten into a big mess? This time, its the EU/IMF bailing us out and putting us on the road to recovery. So far so good. There not that bad!

The EU has given Ireland MASSIVE financial gain since we joined. The money the EU has which is shared out for stuff like roads and infrastructure has done Ireland wonders.

Finally, lets not forget that the EU as a whole is not corrupt and its a bit unfair to say its corrupt. Fair enough some of the bigger members are not playing nicely and are pushing their weight around a bit, but there largely ignored and they operate on their own Independence and not as the EU.

witless1 wrote: »

That attitude (government not yours!) pretty much ****s all over democracy though. We get one chance to vote in a government and have to deal with them until such a point we can vote them out. If people use referendums as a platform then so be it. Regarding misinformation, that is very much true for both yes and no campaigns, we aren't exactly swimming with jobs after the last EU treaty and the yes vote. I don't like the fact that anything voted down can keep coming back to us using one of the above reasons. It's a typical Irish solution though.

It might suck and be ****ty, but what do you expect the government to do? Take the rejection on the chin and move away from Europe despite knowing that it was a rejection not on the treaty but on the government. They go back again, the people vote Yes in higher numbers. If the Irish didn't want the treaty, they would keep saying No.

You cant use referendums as a platform to stick the fingers at the government. That's what protests are for and that's what local and general elections are for. Not a referendum.

As for swimming in jobs - that's not exactly what the Lisbon Yes reason was about. The point behind that was if we vote No, we are pushing further away from Europe and creating a very unsteady ground causing a hesitation in investment and job creation. Thus, by voting Yes, we keep steady and continue the flow of investment - which has happened.

insight_man wrote: »

There is a misconception about Irelands debt to GDP ratio being too high and caused by reckless spending. This is not the case and doesen't stand up to economic analysis. In 2009 Irelands deficit was around €11.4 billion and very managable.

Yet in 2012 it is around €25 billion. This is a result of bailing out the banks and taking on huge amounts of private debt and turning it into public debt. So the argument that we spend too much on teachers, nurses, social welfare etc and its this that has caused the massive deficit, is a flawed argument.

It is quite normal for countries to run deficits, I said this in an earlier post. Its how much of a deficit is appropriate and what the borrowed money is used for is the real question.

You cannot run a country just like a household budget. When there is a downturn in the economy the government must invest in job creation schemes and begin to reinflate the domestic economy. As the domestic economy starts to recover and grow the debt to GDP ratio falls. In other words you get a 'bigger bang for your buck' from investing in the local economy rather than introducing major cuts, which have the effect of deflating the economy.

The economic principle is you can't cut your way out of a crisis. The 'balanced budget' idea behind the fiscal treaty / permenent austerity treaty is therefore fundamentally flawed and will choke what little life is left in the Irish economy. Essentially it is a one way road to extensive poverty, pain and suffering for millions of people and their families.

The bank bailout was a different administration who got punished for that (and other stuff). But either way, the treaty puts in protection to avoid the overspending and gives us access to future funding if we need it.

Silverado wrote: »

You do appear to have a very closeted view of the Irish situation. Do you get out much?

Never. I live in a dark room with a computer that has internet access. I get fed through a little gap in the door. Call for help, when you get the chance. Its horrible

All I can see are closed up shops, more immigration and rising dole queues. Even the Americans realised that austerity just wasn't working and decided to print more dollars. We need to do the same and make money available for business expansion. Have you tried to get an overdraft or business loan recently? No, funny that, you know what the answer will be.

Depends where you look. A lot more jobs are being created by smaller and bigger firms, slowly but surely. Unemployment is dropping slightly also. The outlook reported yesterday by the finance minister wasn't nice, and e doesn't expect a massive improvement but it has been noted gradual improvements (and I don't think many expect a mass exit from the dole queues and mass jobs being created so soon).

Immigration, is partly down to choice (basing this on a recent survey and knowing a lot of people who are planning on leaving or have already left) and partly down to the economic downfall, but mostly by choice.