NFL Betting Thread 2015/2016

NFLBettingTips · 24-09-2015 10:14pm

Alternative Handicap: Giants -2.5 9/10
Total Rushing + Receiving Yards: Shane Vereen Over 58.5 5/6

Eli Manning anytime touchdown 12/1
Has 3 rushing TD's in his career vs Redskins. Worth a small punt.

skippymac6 · 25-09-2015 12:06am

Tonight I like the Redskins +3.5. Quite rightly a lot of pundits are leaning towards the Giants as it's a "must win" scenario for them but after the first two games, the redskins look the better team to me. Their defence is playing lights out with Jason Hatcher finally repaying the faith they showed in him and Kerrigan and Murphy looking good off the edges. The Giants have a very good offence but keep finding ways to lose close games and I think it might happen again this week.

Steelers -1.5 is one of those so called "obvious" bets that looks nailed on but the Rams are a different proposition in their dome. I just feel that with Bell back this week, their offence will step up to another level and they'll need it against that great defence. The Steelers offensive line has been quietly effective the first two games and I think they can continue to give Big Ben enough time to find Brown, Wheaton, Bell etc to get the win.

The Colts -3 would have been about -5/6 if they beat the Jets. The one big problem about the Colts is their offensive line. They don't generate enough sacks either probably and they seem from the outside as a bit of a "soft" team. However, I think they do enough in this one to get their first win of the year. Mariota came down to earth last week and I just feel that Luck might strap this game on his back and answer a few critics that have come out again about his top 5 QB status claims.

Last bet is Seahawks -12.5. Yes it's a big spread but the Bears with Jimmy Clausen as their starting QB might be heading into a buzz saw this Sunday. The Hawks are looking for their first win, they might have Chancellor back, and they are going to look to dominate this week and remind everyone that they are the two time defending NFC champs. I think they make life hell for Clausen and co. and get out of the blocks early and keep the pressure on for 60 minutes.

Guffy · 25-09-2015 12:13am

Put my bet on earlier so odds changed slightly.

Had hoped to do giants -3 and over 44 but the market no longer offered by 365.

Went for obj 2 or more td's at 19/4 (currently 4/1) couple of reasons i took this.
Firstly pp had this as their enhanced bet @ 11/4 so the value is pretty good here.
Secondly the Redskins secondary sucks. I mean its bad. Their front 7 is pretty good too so eli will have to throw it about.
Finally, OBJ scored 3 last year against the skins (22/1 @ time i placed bet). Now i know he will be double teamed here but feck it. If he gets one early it'll be a decent sweat at nearly 5's

2 points OBJ 2 or more td's 19/4 (i believe its 4/1 now)
Also 1/2 point donnell anytime 19/10

eagle eye · 25-09-2015 1:56am

Most on the Giants and I'm gonna say it anyways, the best way to be a big loser in any sport is to back bad teams. These are two bad teams imo and I would never bet on either of them.

skippymac6 · 25-09-2015 8:38am

eagle eye wrote: »

Most on the Giants and I'm gonna say it anyways, the best way to be a big loser in any sport is to back bad teams. These are two bad teams imo and I would never bet on either of them.

Yep you're right there. The Giants were the better team but the Redskins constantly shooting themselves in the foot with mind numbing turnovers and costly penalties, either extending Giants drives, or calling back big plays of their own. The Skins much vaunted O-line weren't able to generate much on the ground and while Cousins wasn't sacked a lot, he was rushed into a few throws and that's when he's really bad. Both his picks were thrown into tight coverage and would have only been 3-4 yard completions. He under threw Reed at least twice for sure TDs and missed other open receivers. I'd expect the Redskins to reverse the form later in the year but they won't have much of a say late into the season if Cousins doesn't scrub up his game

Guffy · 26-09-2015 12:52am

eagle eye wrote: »

Most on the Giants and I'm gonna say it anyways, the best way to be a big loser in any sport is to back bad teams. These are two bad teams imo and I would never bet on either of them.

Bollox. Giants spread was the play last night. I just didn't see any value in it. Had bet365 offered the double market the pick i wanted would have been in. I would have been fortunate granted but the same way i was unfortunate the ones i went for didn't come up.
Donell was targeted on the 5 early, had he brought it in there was enough space to make a move for the td. Had jones not fumbled the giants couldn't have been so cautious in the following drive eating the clock. Giving beckham another chance in the 40-20 to take one in.

Giants was the obvious play btw because the skins are a bad team. Mismanagement was the only reason they lost the first two games. It was also a must win game for them, at home against a terrible secondary. just cause the teams are bad, Doesn't mean there is no money to be made.

In saying that -.5 on the season

StringerBell · 26-09-2015 1:41am

Donnell was a pain in my ass last night, still would agree wholeheartedly Giants to cover was the bet to be on last night, 2.5 was too skinny

soadtool · 27-09-2015 10:43am

I've done panthers to beat the spread and lions on money-line. Just a fancy. Definitely not a tip

Paully D · 27-09-2015 4:50pm

Colts -3.5 (21/20, Bet Victor)

Paully D · 27-09-2015 9:14pm

Paully D wrote: »

Colts -3.5 (21/20, Bet Victor)

That's a tough loss.

matthew8 · 27-09-2015 11:43pm

Bit of a betting angle from today perhaps. Usually it's very tough to back teams on high handicaps because the head coach eases up, but Arians's Cardinals just refuse to stop playing, so you can be a lot more confident of backing them on a big handicap as you're less likely to get beaten in garbage time.

NFLBettingTips · 28-09-2015 5:38am

Went 5-0 on Main Plays on my Tipping Page this week.

skippymac6 · 28-09-2015 8:38am

skippymac6 wrote: »

Tonight I like the Redskins +3.5. Quite rightly a lot of pundits are leaning towards the Giants as it's a "must win" scenario for them but after the first two games, the redskins look the better team to me. Their defence is playing lights out with Jason Hatcher finally repaying the faith they showed in him and Kerrigan and Murphy looking good off the edges. The Giants have a very good offence but keep finding ways to lose close games and I think it might happen again this week.

Steelers -1.5 is one of those so called "obvious" bets that looks nailed on but the Rams are a different proposition in their dome. I just feel that with Bell back this week, their offence will step up to another level and they'll need it against that great defence. The Steelers offensive line has been quietly effective the first two games and I think they can continue to give Big Ben enough time to find Brown, Wheaton, Bell etc to get the win.

The Colts -3 would have been about -5/6 if they beat the Jets. The one big problem about the Colts is their offensive line. They don't generate enough sacks either probably and they seem from the outside as a bit of a "soft" team. However, I think they do enough in this one to get their first win of the year. Mariota came down to earth last week and I just feel that Luck might strap this game on his back and answer a few critics that have come out again about his top 5 QB status claims.

Last bet is Seahawks -12.5. Yes it's a big spread but the Bears with Jimmy Clausen as their starting QB might be heading into a buzz saw this Sunday. The Hawks are looking for their first win, they might have Chancellor back, and they are going to look to dominate this week and remind everyone that they are the two time defending NFC champs. I think they make life hell for Clausen and co. and get out of the blocks early and keep the pressure on for 60 minutes.

Steelers and Seahawks land but a late TD foils the Colts spread. 11/14 for the season.

skippymac6 · 28-09-2015 8:47am

matthew8 wrote: »

Bit of a betting angle from today perhaps. Usually it's very tough to back teams on high handicaps because the head coach eases up, but Arians's Cardinals just refuse to stop playing, so you can be a lot more confident of backing them on a big handicap as you're less likely to get beaten in garbage time.

I'd have to lump the Pats in there too, they look like they want to reset the record books from their 16-0 season. If Gronk can stay healthy, that offence is going to go very close to doing just that.

Also some of the form lines are starting to sort themselves out. The 49rs were completely overrated after their week 1 win and so too were the Chargers it seems. Their win over the Lions looks hollow too considering how poor they've looked in their opening matches were their offence just looks devoid of ideas. Stafford certainly doesn't seem 100%. The Dolphins look completely abject and there seems to be no fight in them, looks like they don't want to play for Philbin at all, complete wrong decision keeping him on this year.

It's going to be tough to catch a few of the teams without their starting QB as Big Ben, Cutler, Brees and Romo will all inflate the hcaps against them but teams are just so much worse without their starting QBs and I think you'd be better off backing against these teams until they prove otherwise. Ravens at Steelers on Thursday will be interesting as the Ravens are 0-3 but Vick looked awful when he came in yesterday. Granted he'll have this week in practice knowing that he's to start, but he hasn't done anything for the past few years in relief either.

StringerBell · 28-09-2015 10:56am

I think they will simplify the play book considerably for him, and as he wouldn't have been getting the reps in practice that he will be getting this week he should improve, if the Ravens D can pressure him he will tuck and run also. Looking forward to seeing the line for that one as I suspect Vick may surprise a few people

Ravens Steelers games are normally a nightmare to predict either way though tbh

PokeHerKing · 28-09-2015 8:26pm

GB line has moved to -5.5, THINK I'll be jumping on that. Lots of folks liking the chiefs by the looks of it!

StringerBell · 28-09-2015 8:50pm

I think it will be closer then people think, certainly then the -7.5 they opened at was too high for me, -5.5 is tempting though.

eagle eye · 29-09-2015 1:17am

StringerBell wrote: »

I think it will be closer then people think, certainly then the -7.5 they opened at was too high for me, -5.5 is tempting though.

I think the Packers win it by a big margin in the end. I'm taking them with an alternative handicap of -12.

I'm also on Randall Cobb for 2 or more td's tonight.

PokeHerKing · 29-09-2015 11:40am

Turned a nice profit this wknd, most of my Sunday winnings went on GB -5.5 last night. Surprised it got that low but happy days

StringerBell · 29-09-2015 12:55pm

Great weekend for me overall, could have been a disaster so delighted with how it turned out. Was impressed with the Green Bay O line last night

kennyb3 · 30-09-2015 8:07pm

StringerBell wrote: »

Great weekend for me overall, could have been a disaster so delighted with how it turned out. Was impressed with the Green Bay O line last night

The packers oline is vastly underrated because it doesn't have a 'name' or a star man. They get it done both on the ground and in pass pro. Rodgers mobility helps too but is possibly another reason it's underrated.

StringerBell · 30-09-2015 8:31pm

I wouldn't think they are underrated. They have a lot to prove and are maybe beginning to do it tbh. I would bow to Packers fans knowledge on this one more of course but from what I have seen they are certainly not vastly underrated

eagle eye · 02-10-2015 1:23am

Fancy the Ravens strongly tonight despite their awful start.

It's just I remember how bad the Steelers have been in the past sans Roethlisberger. I think this is exactly the wrong D for Vick to play against.

Also on Taliefero to score a td. He is healthy now and I'd expect him to see goal line work, he could even start or get a timeshare with a struggling Forsett.

Paully D · 04-10-2015 4:34pm

Bears +4 vs Raiders (5/6, Bet365)
Chargers -5.5 vs Browns (21/20, Bet365)

StringerBell · 04-10-2015 5:09pm

Chargers missing 3 or 4 O linemen?

matthew8 · 06-10-2015 6:18pm

Apparently the Bengals have only opened up as one point favourites this week (haven't seen odds on European bookies but some American websites have mentioned it). If true that is absolutely ludicrous. The Seahawks are heavily reliant on home advantage and have looked average while the Bengals have been one of the best teams in the league. Really I'd have thought they'd be favoured by 4.5 points or so.

D9Male · 06-10-2015 7:07pm

That jumped out at me, too. It's a belting bet if Lynch is out in particular.

MrKingsley · 06-10-2015 8:15pm

That and the rams +10 at GB will be a nice little double. I dont see GB walking it.

Put in the Cards -2.5 at the lions and its a 6/1 treble

matthew8 · 06-10-2015 8:31pm

MrKingsley wrote: »

That and the rams +10 at GB will be a nice little double. I dont see GB walking it.

Put in the Cards -2.5 at the lions and its a 6/1 treble

I like the Cards alright, everything went against them against the Rams, 3 fumbles in the red zone all recovered by the Rams and uncharacteristically had to settle for 5 field goals. Those things won't go against them every week. Conversely I though the Rams got all the breaks last week and will do well to be competitive at Lambeau. Foles might be eaten alive.

StringerBell · 06-10-2015 9:11pm

Got all excited by the thought of the Bengals being -1, went to check on bet365 and they have them -3

NFL Betting Thread 2015/2016

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