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Depopulation of Ireland

  • 04-05-2010 4:29pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 709 ✭✭✭


    I've heard the claim a number of times that in the years before an Gorta Mór, that the population of Ireland was 8 million and the population of England was 12 million. This is then usually contrasted with today's population of Ireland, 5 million, and England, 50 million.

    This is a claim that obviously has Nationalist overtones. So I'm wondering do any of the history heads in here know the facts of it?

    I've never read anything solid as far as evidence goes, and haven't been able to come up with anything with google. What I was looking for in particular was any census figures from the time preceding the Famine.


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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,609 ✭✭✭Flamed Diving


    Exile 1798 wrote: »
    I've heard the claim a number of times that in the years before an Gorta Mór, that the population of Ireland was 8 million and the population of England was 12 million. This is then usually contrasted with today's population of Ireland, 5 million, and England, 50 million.

    This is a claim that obviously has Nationalist overtones. So I'm wondering do any of the history heads in here know the facts of it?

    I've never read anything solid as far as evidence goes, and haven't been able to come up with anything with google. What I was looking for in particular was any census figures from the time preceding the Famine.

    From Cormac O'Grada:

    http://irserver.ucd.ie/dspace/bitstream/10197/455/3/ogradac_article_pub_092.pdf

    the end of page two, 8.5 million is stated.


  • Registered Users Posts: 709 ✭✭✭Exile 1798


    That was quick! I guess it's true what they say, seek and ye shall receive.

    Thanks a lot.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,900 ✭✭✭InTheTrees


    Exile 1798 wrote: »
    I've heard the claim a number of times that in the years before an Gorta Mór, that the population of Ireland was 8 million and the population of England was 12 million. This is then usually contrasted with today's population of Ireland, 5 million, and England, 50 million.

    This is a claim that obviously has Nationalist overtones. So I'm wondering do any of the history heads in here know the facts of it?

    I've never read anything solid as far as evidence goes, and haven't been able to come up with anything with google. What I was looking for in particular was any census figures from the time preceding the Famine.

    Its an interesting question that I dont know the answer to.

    I'd be fascinated to know the population numbers at the various pivotal times in Irish history.

    I think I remember reading once that the population was under a million at the time of the black death.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,609 ✭✭✭Flamed Diving


    InTheTrees wrote: »
    Its an interesting question that I dont know the answer to.

    I'd be fascinated to know the population numbers at the various pivotal times in Irish history.

    I think I remember reading once that the population was under a million at the time of the black death.

    Check it out for yourself, here are estimates by Angus Maddison:

    http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/Historical_Statistics/horizontal-file_02-2010.xls

    from:

    http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/

    I probably don't need to mention that estimates are not fact.

    Anyway, the estimate for Ireland in 1500 is 800,000 people.


  • Registered Users Posts: 709 ✭✭✭Exile 1798


    Reading the first Cormac O'Grada link you provided, that 8.5 million figure doesn't have a footnote attached directly to it. However for other figures he quotes about numbers of workers he compares 1841 and 1851 Census reports. I assume the 8.5 figure comes from these same censuses.

    O'Grada being a respected historian I can now accept the 8.5 million pre-Famine population as fact.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,609 ✭✭✭Flamed Diving


    2mfexjd.png

    Graph of the above data.

    Anyway, I'm sure there are many other sources for that 8.5 million figure. It seems to be accepted fact.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 462 ✭✭SlabMurphy


    I've heard that one of the effects of gross poverty is that the parents tend to have larger families in the thought that their will be some/more to look after them as they get older. This is common in today's third world countries and was the norm in emerging countries like India and Brazilian a few decades ago.

    My point been that this maybe the reason for the huge increase of population in Ireland from the passing of the Act of Union in 1800 which destroyed whatever economy we had and means of keeping some wealth in the country, to 1847 ?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,609 ✭✭✭Flamed Diving


    SlabMurphy wrote: »
    I've heard that one of the effects of gross poverty is that the parents tend to have larger families in the thought that their will be some/more to look after them as they get older. This is common in today's third world countries and was the norm in emerging countries like India and Brazilian a few decades ago.

    My point been that this maybe the reason for the huge increase of population in Ireland from the passing of the Act of Union in 1800 which destroyed whatever economy we had and means of keeping some wealth in the country, to 1847 ?

    No, it's a bit more nuanced than that. I recommend looking into Malthusian Population Mechanics and any research done on the effect of introducing the potato to Western Europe.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 47 existential


    2mfexjd.png

    Graph of the above data.

    Anyway, I'm sure there are many other sources for that 8.5 million figure. It seems to be accepted fact.
    The graph is flawed as it seems to show Ireland 32 counties before 1920 and 26 counties after that date.
    The real population of Ireland (32 Counties) is currently slightly over 6 million similar to what it was in 1850 after 2.5 million died and emigrated.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,609 ✭✭✭Flamed Diving


    The graph is flawed as it seems to show Ireland 32 counties before 1920 and 26 counties after that date.
    The real population of Ireland (32 Counties) is currently slightly over 6 million similar to what it was in 1850 after 2.5 million died and emigrated.

    Yeah, but sure the XLS file is there, so feel free to update it and provide a more accurate graph.

    :)


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 462 ✭✭SlabMurphy


    No, it's a bit more nuanced than that. I recommend looking into Malthusian Population Mechanics and any research done on the effect of introducing the potato to Western Europe.
    Done a google on it and found this which is well, a bit technical for a simple taxi driver to be bothered discyphering. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusian_growth_model

    You also mention " the effect of introducing the potato to Western Europe ". How come the other countries of Europe where the potatoe was introduced didn't appearently experieince the same as Ireland ?
    The graph is flawed as it seems to show Ireland 32 counties before 1920 and 26 counties after that date.
    The real population of Ireland (32 Counties) is currently slightly over 6 million similar to what it was in 1850 after 2.5 million died and emigrated.
    Good point, it does indeed seemed to be flawed. That big dip around 1920 seems to be due to considering only ' Ireland ' population in the 26 counties.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,609 ✭✭✭Flamed Diving


    SlabMurphy wrote: »
    Done a google on it and found this which is well, a bit technical for a simple taxi driver to be bothered discyphering. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusian_growth_model

    Ok, well it really isn't that hard to get. Let's start with an agrarian population, growing just one crop. They are all living on subsistence level, meaning that they grow enough to feed themselves, and that's about it. So now we introduce a new technology to this community (a new seeding technique) which increases the yield of food they produce each year. So now everyone has a bit more to eat, and move beyond subsistence living. But increasing health might also decrease infant mortality, reduce miscarriages, increase life expectancy, etc. This will cause the population to grow. We still have a fixed amount of land, with our new technology and our one type of crop. So as the population increases, everyone's share of the food decreases, until we are back at subsistence level again, birth rates drops, death rates increase, but we still have levelled out at a slightly higher population.
    SlabMurphy wrote: »
    You also mention " the effect of introducing the potato to Western Europe ". How come the other countries of Europe where the potatoe was introduced didn't appearently experieince the same as Ireland ?

    So, taking the above into account, in Ireland's case, the vast majority of the rural poor relied on just one "technology", and that was the potato. For around 40% of Ireland's pre-famine population the diet mainly consisted of potatoes and some dairy (sometimes a little meat, but not regularly), both providing enough nutrients to live on comfortably. An acre of land can hold a family of 8, growing just potatoes and a dairy cow, and this is exactly the type of situation we see happen in pre-famine Ireland.

    Remember from above, introducing the potato would have increased the living standards of those who grew it, and the population would have expanded greatly due to this. But as the model shows, this is short-lived, and soon this expanded population will return to subsistence.

    It was like a bomb, waiting to go off.

    SlabMurphy wrote: »
    Good point, it does indeed seemed to be flawed. That big dip around 1920 seems to be due to considering only ' Ireland ' population in the 26 counties.

    But is it fair to exclude the six counties in the whole graph?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 462 ✭✭SlabMurphy


    Ok, well it really isn't that hard to get. Let's start with an agrarian population, growing just one crop. They are all living on subsistence level, meaning that they grow enough to feed themselves, and that's about it. So now we introduce a new technology to this community (a new seeding technique) which increases the yield of food they produce each year. So now everyone has a bit more to eat, and move beyond subsistence living. But increasing health might also decrease infant mortality, reduce miscarriages, increase life expectancy, etc. This will cause the population to grow. We still have a fixed amount of land, with our new technology and our one type of crop. So as the population increases, everyone's share of the food decreases, until we are back at subsistence level again, birth rates drops, death rates increase, but we still have levelled out at a slightly higher population.

    So, taking the above into account, in Ireland's case, the vast majority of the rural poor relied on just one "technology", and that was the potato. For around 40% of Ireland's pre-famine population the diet mainly consisted of potatoes and some dairy (sometimes a little meat, but not regularly), both providing enough nutrients to live on comfortably. An acre of land can hold a family of 8, growing just potatoes and a dairy cow, and this is exactly the type of situation we see happen in pre-famine Ireland.

    Remember from above, introducing the potato would have increased the living standards of those who grew it, and the population would have expanded greatly due to this. But as the model shows, this is short-lived, and soon this expanded population will return to subsistence.

    It was like a bomb, waiting to go off.
    Ah yes, it's blame the victim time again :rolleyes: and sure no one deserves more than the Irish. Interesting, in his whole analysis he didn't once mention Britain, it's landlord system, it's laws, unfair trading practises etc as a cause of the famine. Nor that Ireland was an exporter of food to the ' mainland ' before, during and after the famine.

    " For around 40% of Ireland's pre-famine population the diet mainly consisted of potatoes and some dairy (sometimes a little meat, but not regularly), both providing enough nutrients to live on comfortably. "
    Well now, doesn't this just about sum up his agenda :rolleyes:
    But is it fair to exclude the six counties in the whole graph?
    Because the graph ( did you develop it BTW ? ) gives the misleading appearence that all 32 counties of Ireland population rapidly declined with the superior, benevolent British leaving the 26 to the natives. Ah yes, your agenda is quite clear now Mr. Paisley.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,609 ✭✭✭Flamed Diving


    SlabMurphy wrote: »
    Ah yes, it's blame the victim time again :rolleyes: and sure no one deserves more than the Irish. Interesting, in his whole analysis he didn't once mention Britain, it's landlord system, it's laws, unfair trading practises etc as a cause of the famine. Nor that Ireland was an exporter of food to the ' mainland ' before, during and after the famine.

    " For around 40% of Ireland's pre-famine population the diet mainly consisted of potatoes and some dairy (sometimes a little meat, but not regularly), both providing enough nutrients to live on comfortably. "
    Well now, doesn't this just about sum up his agenda :rolleyes:

    Because the graph ( did you develop it BTW ? ) gives the misleading appearence that all 32 counties of Ireland population rapidly declined with the superior, benevolent British leaving the 26 to the natives. Ah yes, your agenda is quite clear now Mr. Paisley.

    Yawn.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 462 ✭✭SlabMurphy


    Yawn.
    :rolleyes:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,609 ✭✭✭Flamed Diving


    If any reasonable person would like to know more about the literature behind such logic, a paper is linked below:

    http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/nunn/files/Potatoes.pdf

    A snippet from Section 2A:
    From a nutritional standpoint, there are two primary reasons why the potato is superior to other staple crops. First, because potatoes contain nearly all important vitamins and minerals, they support life better than any other crop when eaten as the sole article of diet (Davidson, Passmore, Brock, and Truswell, 1975, Reader, 2008). Humans can subsist healthily on a diet of potatoes,
    supplemented with only milk or butter, which contain the two vitamins not provided for by potatoes, vitamins A and D (Connell, 1962, Davidson et al., 1975). This, in fact, was the typical Irish diet, which although monotonous, was able to provide sufficient amounts of all vitamins and nutrients (Connell, 1962).

    Enjoy reading!.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 26,567 ✭✭✭✭Fratton Fred


    Weren't the priests telling everyone to go forth and multiply as well? I thought that had a big hand in the population boom as well.

    Out of curiosity, are there any estimates at how many people died in the famine as opposed to how many emigrated?


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,900 ✭✭✭InTheTrees


    And how about the numbers from before 1500?

    For instance what were the effects of the various plagues on population?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,609 ✭✭✭Flamed Diving


    Weren't the priests telling everyone to go forth and multiply as well? I thought that had a big hand in the population boom as well.

    Out of curiosity, are there any estimates at how many people died in the famine as opposed to how many emigrated?

    The estimates are 1m emigrated and 1m died. Google "O'Grada famine estimates" and have a dig around.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,609 ✭✭✭Flamed Diving


    InTheTrees wrote: »
    And how about the numbers from before 1500?

    For instance what were the effects of the various plagues on population?

    I provided a link to the data I used. I am unaware of any other dataset online.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 666 ✭✭✭bog master


    Check it out for yourself, here are estimates by Angus Maddison:

    http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/Historical_Statistics/horizontal-file_02-2010.xls

    from:

    http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/

    I probably don't need to mention that estimates are not fact.

    Anyway, the estimate for Ireland in 1500 is 800,000 people.

    Thanks for the links, but seeing as there appears to be nil people in Ireland in 1 AD up to 1000AD, what happened to those who built Newgrange, Loughcrew, Ceide Fields etc?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,609 ✭✭✭Flamed Diving


    bog master wrote: »
    Thanks for the links, but seeing as there appears to be nil people in Ireland in 1 AD up to 1000AD, what happened to those who built Newgrange, Loughcrew, Ceide Fields etc?

    1) Does it say zero?

    2) Why are you asking me?


  • Registered Users Posts: 666 ✭✭✭bog master


    1) Does it say zero?

    2) Why are you asking me?


    Good evening! You posted the link, and would assume you would be reasonably familiar with what you posted.

    No, does not say zero, just not data in the box for Ireland!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,609 ✭✭✭Flamed Diving


    bog master wrote: »
    Good evening! You posted the link, and would assume you would be reasonably familiar with what you posted.

    No, does not say zero, just not data in the box for Ireland!

    Sorry, I am a tad tired and cranky. No data in the box just means there is no estimate for that time/country. The data doesn't suggest that 800,000 people just popped out of nowhere in 1500. As far as I can see, any population figures before the 1800s are simple, rounded figures, making them educated guesses, at best. But like I said, I know of no other population database.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 20,649 ✭✭✭✭CDfm


    Weren't the priests telling everyone to go forth and multiply as well? I thought that had a big hand in the population boom as well.

    that is a very interesting topic in its own right

    was there contraception in those days
    Out of curiosity, are there any estimates at how many people died in the famine as opposed to how many emigrated?

    It is generally accepted that the figures for each was between 1 to 1.5 million.

    The population was 8 m or so in 1841 and 6.5m in 1851

    It was the great famine and there were others from 1740/41 onwards

    It is difficult to put exact figures on it but you have sites like below that use figures from the higher range - whichever you use the figures were massive
    * Deaths between 1.0 and 1.5 Million Famine-related deaths



    * Emigration: Between 1.5 and 2.0 million Irish left Ireland due to the Famine



    * Evictions: Between the years 1849 and 1867 109,000 families were evicted



    * Coffin Ships: 20,000 Irish died enroute to Canada



    * At the peak of the famine 3 million people were fed in soup kitchens



    * The potato blight was recorded in the US in 1843. It then crossed over to

    tp.gif Europe and hit Ireland in 1845



    * By March 1847 there were nearly 750,000 Irish in work houses

    http://div8aoh.homestead.com/FamineFacts.html


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 26,567 ✭✭✭✭Fratton Fred


    CDfm wrote: »
    that is a very interesting topic in its own right

    was there contraception in those days

    I presume people had worked out what was getting them pregnant?

    Are there any recorded mass graves? I know a lot of people were buried pretty much where they fell, but did the towns have mass graves?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 20,649 ✭✭✭✭CDfm


    I presume people had worked out what was getting them pregnant?

    i just wondered if the protestant population had access to contraception :pac:

    was there a difference in birth rates etc
    Are there any recorded mass graves? I know a lot of people were buried pretty much where they fell, but did the towns have mass graves?

    i havent heard of them but i assume there were

    but i did read pne travellers account of a visit to kerry where the gaveyard was covered in human bones and skeletons as the scale was sp great they gave up burying people

    also the survivors would not have the strenght to conduct proper burials

    just looked up some stats - the 1740/1 famine had deaths estimated between 3-500,000

    1815 -1845 Emigration was around 1.5 million

    In 1851 over 1/4 of the population of Liverpool was Irish born and 1/2 of Toronto

    Between 1849-52 according to a famine memorial in Liverpool 1 1/4 million Irish travelled thru Liverpool


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,609 ✭✭✭Flamed Diving


    I read a paper which showed that English females started to have children two years later than French females, on average. Perhaps there was a cultural difference for protestants to wait longer?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 20,649 ✭✭✭✭CDfm


    I read a paper which showed that English females started to have children two years later than French females, on average. Perhaps there was a cultural difference for protestants to wait longer?

    Or it could have been something in the potatoes or maybe even ignorance:cool:


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 104 ✭✭Tarzan007


    Weren't the priests telling everyone to go forth and multiply as well? I thought that had a big hand in the population boom as well.
    They may well have been. I've heard that their was a short song by Irishmen working in England regarding WW2 when poor old grandad Tommy was locked up in a German or Japanese POW camp etc that went like this -

    The English are a funny lot, they try to put down us Paddy's
    But little do the bastards know, the Paddy's are their Daddy's !!!!

    ( So maybe the soccer team could call on a few more of Irish ancestery over there. Obviously the Yanks were having their share of crumpet at the time too :) )


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