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Card Index

  • 11-02-2012 12:57am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭


    Did some pretty rudimentary analysis of card stats last weekend and got 3 wins from 3. Odds of below (at worst 4/6) or just above evens. Nothing spectacular but profitable all the same. I've put a bit more work into it this week so I'm going to start putting my bets up for the laugh. I couldn't bear posting on the after-time thread!

    Premature, but at least it'll focus my mind. All comments, tips and advice are very welcome. My three last week were all naps as far as I was concerned but I haven't been as disciplined this week hence the number of bets. I'm not putting any reasoning in but if you think any one of these looks crazy, please post a reply. I can justify (most of!) them if pushed. I'll endeavour to post outcomes/profit/losses. Bon Chance!

    BET365:
    Over 3.5
    Sunderland v Arsenal
    (Number of Cards in Match)

    €10 at 4/6

    Over 3.5
    Bolton v Wigan
    (Number of Cards in Match)
    €10 at 8/11

    PaddyPower:
    Over 30 Points @ 4/7
    Card Index
    Everton v Chelsea

    €10 @ 4/7

    William Hill:
    11 Feb 2012 - Swansea v Norwich - Total Bookings 1
    Under 25 @ 19/10
    Stake : €10.00

    12 Feb 2012 - Wolves v West Brom - Total Bookings 2
    Under 35 @ 13/10
    Stake : €20.00

    12 Feb 2012 - Aston Villa v Man City - Total Bookings 2
    Under 35 @ EVS
    Stake : €10.00


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 952 ✭✭✭shangri la


    This is a market I will get around to studying when I get time.

    Can you give a bit of insight into your analysis?

    Good Luck.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,067 ✭✭✭✭wp_rathead


    Thread might be better of here

    I do like card index bets, havn't done any in a while- kinda stopped since Yardie has left us :D

    Out of them- Wolves v WBA look least likely as it is a derby, so can see it going over 3.5 despite Mason in charge.

    gl though


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    I've taken club discipline stats from Statbunker
    Referee stats from the same site (less weight on this)

    Number of cards in the previous leg this season, plus no. of cards in the two matches from last season (less weight given to this).

    Some teams are home foulers, others are more likely to accrue cards on the road. I've factored this in as well.

    Obviously if it's a local derby, then that comes into it although funnily enough today's derby game Wolves v West Brom only yielded 1 yellow in the same tie earlier this season and none in the game before that.

    If I had more time I'd look at individual player stats and make allowance if high card scorers are or are not playing.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,067 ✭✭✭✭wp_rathead


    Cardex wrote: »
    I've taken club discipline stats from Statbunker
    Referee stats from the same site (less weight on this)

    Number of cards in the previous leg this season, plus no. of cards in the two matches from last season (less weight given to this).

    Some teams are home foulers, others are more likely to accrue cards on the road. I've factored this in as well.

    Obviously if it's a local derby, then that comes into it although funnily enough today's derby game Wolves v West Brom only yielded 1 yellow in the same tie earlier this season and none in the game before that.

    If I had more time I'd look at individual player stats and make allowance if high card scorers are or are not playing.

    my god Statbunker- where have you been all my life! gonna have fun with this:cool:

    thanks Cardex


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    THIS WEEK:
    TOTAL STAKED: €70.00
    TOTAL RETURNED: €112.28
    NET PROFIT: €42.28

    4 wins out of 6. Was let down on two of my Over 3.5's. Wasn't too far off the mark on either of them but will have to be more careful with these next week.

    BET365:
    Over 3.5
    Sunderland v Arsenal
    (Number of Cards in Match)
    €10 at 4/6
    Actual: 30 points
    Result: Lose
    Return: €0.00

    Over 3.5
    Bolton v Wigan
    (Number of Cards in Match)
    €10 at 8/11
    Actual: 50 points
    Result: Win
    Return: €17.28


    PaddyPower:
    Over 30 Points @ 4/7
    Card Index
    Everton v Chelsea
    €10 @ 4/7
    Actual: 30 points
    Result: Lose
    Return: €0.00

    William Hill:
    11 Feb 2012 - Swansea v Norwich - Total Bookings 1
    Under 25 @ 19/10
    Stake : €10.00
    Actual: 20 points
    Result: Win
    Return: €29.00

    12 Feb 2012 - Wolves v West Brom - Total Bookings 2
    Under 35 @ 13/10
    Stake : €20.00
    Actual: 10 points
    Result: Win
    Return: €46.00

    12 Feb 2012 - Aston Villa v Man City - Total Bookings 2
    Under 35 @ EVS
    Stake : €10.00
    Actual: 30 Points
    Result: Win
    Return: €20.00


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  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    Not much time to look into stats for this weekend so just one for tomorrow.

    Lost my bet on this tie in EPL last weekend (>3.5 @ 4/6). Was one card short. Couldn't resist >30 at 10/11 with paddy power for FA Cup tomorrow.

    Over 30 Points @ 10/11
    Card Index
    Sunderland v Arsenal

    Stake €20


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    Looks decent enough


    PaddyPower
    Under 80 Points @ 5/6
    Card Index
    Sevilla v Osasuna

    Stake €20


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    Over 30 Points @ 10/11 (Win)
    Card Index
    Sunderland v Arsenal
    Stake €20
    Actual: 60 Points
    Result: Win
    Return: €38.18



    Under 80 Points @ 5/6

    Card Index
    Sevilla v Osasuna
    Stake €20
    Actual: 60 Points
    Result: Win
    Return: €36.67


    THIS WEEK:
    TOTAL STAKED THIS WEEK: €40.00
    TOTAL RETURNED THIS WEEK: €74.85
    NET PROFIT THIS WEEK: €34.85

    TO DATE:
    TOTAL STAKED TO DATE: €110.00
    TOTAL RETURNED TO DATE: €187.13
    NET PROFIT TO DATE: €77.13


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    6 out of 8 so far, in profit but I’ve an ominous feeling that it wouldn’t take much to bring about a losing streak. Last two weeks have been very much a learning process so some of this may sound naïve.

    At the moment I’m making a judgment call based on (i) a percentage derived from the combined value of the teams’ positions in the discipline table and (ii) number of cards in previous 3 fixtures. Still haven’t figured out how much weight should be attached to the two sides of this. The ideal is where both teams are high offenders and have a history of high cards in previous ties. You add in a referee with a high card per match average and I think you can start betting on >30 or >3.5 (depends on bookie) with some confidence. Same logic can be applied in reverse on low offenders, low carding refs. I think you can get a slight edge by looking at home/away bias i.e. some teams typically accrue more cards at home than they do on the road. The ideal game here for example would be Blackburn at home to Newcastle.

    In EPL I’m starting to think your bet is largely confined to the threshold of + or – 30 points and it seems hard to get anything better than just above or below evens in this area. Will look a bit more at La Liga and Serie A. Cards per game are typically much higher, Refs are far more trigger happy. This volatility means a greater range of outcomes and I think it could lend itself to finding value in, for example the Sevilla game tonight, an evens bet of <80 points which would be unheard of in the EPL.

    The main difficulty is getting prices for games which pose betting potential. Paddy Power’s system gives most flexibility to find your threshold but they generally only have a card market in televised games. William Hill give Card market in more games but it’s more difficult to find your bet if you’ve a particular figure in mind. Ditto Bet365.

    Have requested prices from Paddy Power for two games on Tuesday which I think show potential: Barnsley v Birmingham and Millwall v Middlesborough. Will post here if they reply and I’m going with them.


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    PaddyPower came back with odds

    Going with these tonight:

    Barnsley v Birmingham
    Under 30 points @ 13/10
    Stake: €10

    Millwall v Boro
    Over 30 points @ 5/4
    Stake: €20


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  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    and

    Napoli v Chelsea
    Over 40 points @ 4/6
    Stake €10


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    So only 1 out of 3 for last night. Fortunately my favoured bet with the heavier stake of €20 came off and cancels out the two €10 stake losses leaving a small profit of €5.

    Napoli Chelsea was a (bad) afterthought if truth be told. Have to avoid putting bets on simply because PP are offering a card market.

    Barnsley v Birmingham
    Under 30 points @ 13/10
    Stake: €10

    Actual: 40Points
    Result: Lose
    Return: €0.00


    Millwall v Boro
    Over 30 points @ 5/4
    Stake: €20

    Actual: 70 Points
    Result: Win
    Return: €45.00


    Napoli v Chelsea
    Over 40 points @ 4/6
    Stake €10

    Actual: 30 Points
    Result: Lose
    Return: €0.00


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    LAST NIGHT:
    TOTAL STAKED LAST NIGHT: €40.00
    TOTAL RETURNED LAST NIGHT: €45.00
    NET PROFIT LAST NIGHT: €5.00

    TO DATE:
    TOTAL STAKED TO DATE: €150.00
    TOTAL RETURNED TO DATE: €232.13
    NET PROFIT TO DATE: €82.13


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    Bit inconsistent from Paddy power. Earlier this week, I requested odds by email on some midweek games and they provided them no problem. Then yesterday I requested prices for some games this weekend and got:

    "Our trading department has informed me that we only offer these markets for matches live on UK TV. My apologies for any inconvenience caused."

    I know you only give online prices on the televised games. That's the whole reason I was emailing you! Have asked her to go back and see if she can talk to trading department but not holding our much hope. Could be the final push I need to start going on Sporting Index! Obviously will have to do a whole bunch of research into spreads first.


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    Bets for tomorrow:

    BET365: Wigan v Villa – Over 3.5 @ 1.95 – Stake €20

    PP: Athletico Madrid v Barcelona – Less than 60 points @ 6/4 – Stake €20

    PP: Rayo Vallecano v Real Madrid – Less than 70 points @ 8/11 – Stake €20

    Am tempted by less than 30 points in Norwich v United but awaiting a price from PP.


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    And for my €5 freebet courtesy of PP and their site meltdown, pays €275:

    Barcelona @ 1/2
    Win-Draw-Win
    Atletico Madrid v Barcelona

    Osasuna @ 10/11
    Win-Draw-Win
    Osasuna v Granada

    FC Twente @ 1/4
    Win-Draw-Win
    FC Twente v FC Utrecht

    Man City @ 1/5
    Win-Draw-Win
    Man City v Blackburn

    Valencia @ 17/20
    Win-Draw-Win
    Valencia v Sevilla

    Man Utd @ 4/7
    Win-Draw-Win
    Norwich v Man Utd

    Sunderland @ 11/10
    Draw No Bet
    West Brom v Sunderland

    Tottenham @ 11/10
    Draw No Bet
    Arsenal v Tottenham



  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    Cardex wrote: »
    Bets for tomorrow:

    BET365: Wigan v Villa – Over 3.5 @ 1.95 – Stake €20

    PP: Athletico Madrid v Barcelona – Less than 60 points @ 6/4 – Stake €20

    PP: Rayo Vallecano v Real Madrid – Less than 70 points @ 8/11 – Stake €20

    Am tempted by less than 30 points in Norwich v United but awaiting a price from PP.

    Not great this weekend at all. Only 1 out of 3 with Wigan Villa obliging. Pretty annoyed with PP and failure to quote prices. I had two Championship games for <30 in mind and both of them turned out as I'd predicted.

    THIS WEEKEND:
    TOTAL STAKED THIS WEEKEND: €60.00
    TOTAL RETURNED THIS WEEKEND: €39.00
    NET PROFIT THIS WEEKEND: (-€21.00)

    TO DATE:
    TOTAL STAKED TO DATE: €210.00
    TOTAL RETURNED TO DATE: €271.13
    NET PROFIT TO DATE: €61.13


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    This weekend's bets:

    BET365:
    Tottenham v Man Utd – Under 5.0 @ evens – Stake €35.00 (stake returned if exactly 5.0)

    Liverpool v Arsenal – Over 4.0 @ 1.90 – Stake €10.00 (stake returned if exactly 4.0)

    Blackburn v Aston Villa – Over 4.0 @ 1.875 – Stake €20.00 (stake returned if exactly 4.0)

    William Hill:
    03 Mar 2012 - Liverpool v Arsenal - Red Card In The Match?
    Yes @ 15/4
    Stake:€6.32
    Returns: €30.02


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    Cardex wrote: »
    This weekend's bets:

    BET365:
    WIN Tottenham v Man Utd – Under 5.0 @ evens – Stake €35.00 (stake returned if exactly 5.0)

    LOSE Liverpool v Arsenal – Over 4.0 @ 1.90 – Stake €10.00 (stake returned if exactly 4.0)

    LOSE Blackburn v Aston Villa – Over 4.0 @ 1.875 – Stake €20.00 (stake returned if exactly 4.0)

    William Hill:
    LOSE 03 Mar 2012 - Liverpool v Arsenal - Red Card In The Match?
    Yes @ 15/4
    Stake:€6.32
    Returns: €30.02

    updated


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    Poor weekend with only 1 win out of 4. Fortunately, my larger stake on United Spurs came in. This was too high at evens and in fact it had dropped to 4/7 by Saturday morning. It pretty much cancels out the 3 smaller staked losers. Same thing happened last weekend. Starting to spot a trend! At least I'm getting my staking right on what I see as the more banakable bets. Will have another crack next weekend and see if I can turn a profit.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    Bets for the weekend;

    €20 Under 35 Man Utd v West Brom @ ½ WH
    €20 Over 4.0 Middlesbrough v Leeds 1.80 BET365 Asian
    €40 Over 4.0 Arsenal v Newcastle 1.975 BET365 Asian
    €20 Under 3.5 Swansea v Man City 1.70 BET365 Asian
    €10 Under 2.5 Everton v Tottenham 1.95 BET365 Asian
    €20 Over 4.0 Wolverhampton v Blackburn 1.80 BET365 Asian


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    Took the plunge and opened an account on Sporting Index. New account promo gives me €120 free credit so I'm treating this very much as an experiment until I get my head around spread betting generally and start using my own money. There's a stop loss on the account so my exposure is limited.

    Manchester United v West Bromwich Albion - Bookings

    Stake
    Bet
    Value

    €0.50
    SELL @ 28
    -€2.00

    Latest:
    28-32


    Wolverhampton Wanderers v Blackburn Rovers - Bookings

    Stake
    Bet
    Value

    €0.50
    BUY @ 44
    -€2.00

    Latest:
    40-44


    Arsenal v Newcastle United - Bookings

    Stake
    Bet
    Value

    €0.50
    BUY @ 42
    -€2.00

    Latest:
    38-42


    Swansea City v Manchester City - Bookings

    Stake
    Bet
    Value

    €1.00
    SELL @ 32
    -€4.00

    Latest:
    32-36


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    Cardex wrote: »
    Bets for the weekend;

    €20 Under 35 Man Utd v West Brom @ ½ WH LOSE
    €20 Over 4.0 Middlesbrough v Leeds1.80 BET365 Asian STAKE RETURNED (VOIDED FOR SOME REASON )
    €40 Over 4.0 Arsenal v Newcastle1.975 BET365 Asian WIN
    €20 Under 3.5 Swansea v ManCity1.70 BET365 Asian WIN
    €10 Under 2.5 Everton v Tottenham 1.95 BET365 Asian LOSE
    €20 Over 4.0 Wolverhampton v Blackburn 1.80 BET365 Asian LOSE

    Late update 'cos I was away last 2 weeks

    As usual bigger staked bet came in and offset the other losses. Losses €50. Wins €53. Brings overall profits to €63 (I think).

    Spread bets produced a small loss and the balance of my promo €120 has been taken away. There may have been some time limit on using it. Am closing this account as the potential for big losses are pretty big when you've no idea what you're doing!

    Had a couple of sneaky bets on midweek games from the mobile. 2 from 3 came off for a profit of €40 but won't include them on thread as I didn't post first (ahem).

    Bets for this weekend:

    All 356

    Under5.0 @ 1.925
    €40.00 Single
    Chelsea v Tottenham
    (Asian Total Cards)

    Over3.0 @ 1.775
    €20.00 Single
    Liverpool v Wigan
    (Asian Total Cards)

    Under4.0 @ 1.90
    €10.00 Single
    Sunderland v QPR
    (Asian Total Cards)


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    Cardex wrote: »
    Bets for this weekend:

    All 356

    Under5.0 @ 1.925
    €40.00 Single
    Chelsea v Tottenham WIN
    (Asian Total Cards)

    Over3.0 @ 1.775
    €20.00 Single
    Liverpool v Wigan STAKE RETURNED
    (Asian Total Cards)

    Under4.0 @ 1.90
    €10.00 Single
    Sunderland v QPR LOST
    (Asian Total Cards)

    Net profit for the week, just under €30. Overall profit now €93 (approx).


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    For this weekend, all bet365:

    Newcastle v Liverpool
    (Asian Total Cards) Under 4.0 - €20 @ 1.75

    Wolverhampton v Bolton
    (Asian Total Cards) Under 4.5 - €20 @ 1.80

    Tottenham v Swansea
    (Asian Total Cards) Under 3.5 - €40 @ 1.70


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    and

    QPR v Arsenal
    (Asian Handicap Cards)
    Arsenal 0.0
    €20 @ 1.95


  • Registered Users Posts: 216 ✭✭rodeo1985


    Hey Cardex, great thread. You seem to be putting a lot of effort in and you're going well. One thing I've observed throughout your thread is that (i think) all of your larger stake bets have come off, which is very impressive. So just a suggestion, but maybe consider limiting yourself to 1 bet a day, that way you're most likely to leave out the smaller speculative bets and go with the one your confident with. I reckon you'd soon see your profit jump if you did. Best of luck regardless!


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    rodeo1985 wrote: »
    Hey Cardex, great thread. You seem to be putting a lot of effort in and you're going well. One thing I've observed throughout your thread is that (i think) all of your larger stake bets have come off, which is very impressive. So just a suggestion, but maybe consider limiting yourself to 1 bet a day, that way you're most likely to leave out the smaller speculative bets and go with the one your confident with. I reckon you'd soon see your profit jump if you did. Best of luck regardless!

    Cheers Rodeo. I take your point. I've actually become a lot more discerning than when I started out! Still early days. Will look at cutting down to the one banker each weekend if the current trend continues.


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    Cardex wrote: »
    For this weekend, all bet365:

    Newcastle v Liverpool
    (Asian Total Cards) Under 4.0 - €20 @ 1.75 LOST (Could not have got this more wrong)

    Wolverhampton v Bolton
    (Asian Total Cards) Under 4.5 - €20 @ 1.80 WON Returns €36

    Tottenham v Swansea
    (Asian Total Cards) Under 3.5 - €40 @ 1.70 WON Returns €68

    QPR v Arsenal
    (Asian Handicap Cards)
    Arsenal 0.0
    €20 @ 1.95 LOST (Less said about this the better)

    A paltry €4 profit for the weekend. On the bright side, I'm not losing money. And my bigger staked bet came in again.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    Fully conscious that this is an impulse bet so I may come to regret it:

    Blackburn v Man Utd
    (Asian Handicap Cards)
    Blackburn -0.5
    €20 @ 1.95


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