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IF BRITAIN LEAVES THE EU MUST IRELAND LEAVE TOO?
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23-06-2012 6:36pm#1Britain has become increasingly isolated in the EU.
It looks as if there is either to be a break-up of the Euro and therefore the EU or political union.
It is clear Britain will not agree to political union.
It is in fact clear that they will not agree to more fiscal or banking union.
They are our biggest trading partner and we are their biggest trading partner in the EU.
If they leave the Eu can we remain apart of it??
Also if Britain is not to be more fully integrated into the fiscal union etc is it in our best interests to be?
Perhaps a complete departure is not definite.
But a two tier system? Would it work for Ireland to be in Europe if Britain in not fully.
I am begining to wonder about the future of the EU and the Euro the likelyhood of it's stability the morals and politics governing the EU right now and the extreme right wing policies of Germany and political manipulation and i feel Ireland might be better out of the Euro is it is run so badly and so debt ridden.
Honestly it might workfor them too....we are a tiny nation they haven reason to want us in the EU.
And it looks to be increasingly bad for the country.
To be associated with the Eurozone at the momment is not good for our reputation i think.
I am unsure of our options.
But i think we need to be prepared in case the Eurozone breaks up.
And have a plan.
And we need to look into is it really in our interests any longer.
We are losing budgetary control.
Perhaps our low corporate tax rate.
It is likely we will not recieve ESM funding...or a secind bailout (if we need it -i am so sick of hearing that phrase)
So my worries are ..if we need a bailout ....what happens when none is forh coming....IF we get help what do they force us to give??? And thats a big IF
Also it is becoming obvious that there is not enough money in Europe to bailout Europe.
15 Banks today were were downgraded by Moody's .
Not all from Europe.
It used to be we need the Euro to attract foreig investment...For the first time it is now ..oh no the fact that we are in the Eurozone is scaring away foreign investment...
So thoughts ?? Discussion?
Sorry if it is not a great opening:o:P But i think it is interesting0
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EU and the Euro are different things.0
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The EU is our biggest trading partner.0
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OP, it is not really clear here: are you talking about Ireland leaving the euro zone (monetary union), or leaving the European Union (economic and regulatory union, i.e. freedom of movement, no trade barriers, etc)? Your title suggests the latter, but your comments suggest your concerns lie with the former.0
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The UK isn't going to leave the eu for the simple reason that they both need each other too much.0
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The only exit strategy from the Euro is by exiting the eu....the treaty of lisbon makes provisions for this.
The only way to exit the Eurozone at the moment is to leave the EU via the Lisbon treaty.
And the US is set to overtake britain's place as our biggest trading partner by 2025.http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2011/1011/1224305578517.html
Someone mentioned the EU as a block being a significant trading partner ..which is a good point
But our US trade and Uk trade still has the largest trade value ... http://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/externaltrade/maintradingpartners-2011m/
If the Euro survives Europe more than likely will not look as it does now ....the eu block may fragment and all other countries are seeing a wind own in eu trade....0 -
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southsiderosie wrote: »OP, it is not really clear here: are you talking about Ireland leaving the euro zone (monetary union), or leaving the European Union (economic and regulatory union, i.e. freedom of movement, no trade barriers, etc)? Your title suggests the latter, but your comments suggest your concerns lie with the former.
Hi southsiderosie ...:-)
As i understand it ( and i could be wrong) the only way for an Eurozone country to leave the Euro is by leaving the eu which is provided for in the Lisbon treaty.
And i do think if the Eu collapses so will the EU.0 -
poeticseraphim wrote: »The only exit strategy from the Euro is by exiting the eu....the treaty of lisbon makes provisions for this.
The only way to exit the Eurozone at the moment is to leave the EU via the Lisbon treaty.
And the US is set to overtake britain's place as our biggest trading partner by 2025.http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2011/1011/1224305578517.html
Someone mentioned the EU as a block being a significant trading partner ..which is a good point
But our US trade and Uk trade still has the largest trade value ... http://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/externaltrade/maintradingpartners-2011m/
If the Euro survives Europe more than likely will not look as it does now ....the eu block may fragment and all other countries are seeing a wind own in eu trade....
Unless I am reading this backwards, according to those figures, the EU is the largest export market for Ireland. Also, when you add up import and export activity, by far the largest volume of trade is with the EU.
If Ireland left the EU, this would be a crushing blow to exporters because they would no longer benefit from tarriff-free trade with the Continent. And consumers would lose out on relatively cheap imported goods.
Most small countries rely on having very open trade relations - Singapore and the Netherlands being two prime examples. For Ireland to shut itself off from the EU free trade zone would be disastrous. The country simply doesn't have the natural resources and/or industrial base to survive in autarky.0 -
Noone is suggesting that we leave the EU without ensuring a free trade agreement with the E.U. in advance. Much like what Switzerland has, Norway, Liechtenstein etc. They are all members of the EEA but they are all, also free to establish trade agreements with other nations as they see fit.0
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Join Date:Posts: 13620
poeticseraphim wrote: »Britain has become increasingly isolated in the EU.
It looks as if there is either to be a break-up of the Euro and therefore the EU or political union.
It is clear Britain will not agree to political union.
It is in fact clear that they will not agree to more fiscal or banking union.
They are our biggest trading partner and we are their biggest trading partner in the EU.
If they leave the Eu can we remain apart of it??
Also if Britain is not to be more fully integrated into the fiscal union etc is it in our best interests to be?
Perhaps a complete departure is not definite.
But a two tier system? Would it work for Ireland to be in Europe if Britain in not fully.
I am begining to wonder about the future of the EU and the Euro the likelyhood of it's stability the morals and politics governing the EU right now and the extreme right wing policies of Germany and political manipulation and i feel Ireland might be better out of the Euro is it is run so badly and so debt ridden.
Honestly it might workfor them too....we are a tiny nation they haven reason to want us in the EU.
And it looks to be increasingly bad for the country.
To be associated with the Eurozone at the momment is not good for our reputation i think.
I am unsure of our options.
But i think we need to be prepared in case the Eurozone breaks up.
What is your evidence for the chances of the euro and eu breaking up? Why is that more likely than, say, the dollar and the us breaking up? Or what about the pound and the uk?
I think you'll fine that those who say the euro is about to collapse come from two ideological camps - the first are anti-euro anyway and have been predicting the collapse for the last decade. The second believe that only financial stimulous will work and insist the ecjs reluctance to engage in same is proof that it is doomed.
Sure the euro has problems butthe entire world has problems. But while the other countries take the politically easy / economically bad path to recovery, the eu is trying the politically hard / economically good path. As it has not been tried in many other economies, obviously there is uncertainty. But if it founders the ecj still has the option of taking the other route ie quantitative easing to put them back on track. The us and uk had already shot their bolt in this regard, so I would be more concerned about them IMO.0 -
There is no provision at all for a Member State to exit the Eurozone without also leaving the EU - it is not the Lisbon Treaty which forced this issue; it is just one that doesn't seem to have been anticipated in advance. That does not mean that if the Eurozone collapsed and ended tomorrow morning that the EU would fail as a result. EU membership is not conditional on Eurozone membership.poeticseraphim wrote: »Hi southsiderosie ...:-)
As i understand it ( and i could be wrong) the only way for an Eurozone country to leave the Euro is by leaving the eu which is provided for in the Lisbon treaty.
And i do think if the Eu collapses so will the EU.
The point that is often made is about a return to the Punt when this matter of EU/EZ membership gets complex. We could not leave the EZ without also leaving the EU under current rules - a move which would severely damage our economic position in a global market. That is, unless the rules were changed. However, if all countries decided to end the Eurozone single currency then there is no reason to believe that provision wouldn't be made to allow the EU to continue.
I believe the question of closer political union is only going to happen on a Eurozone level. As to your other points about the Eurozone being debt ridden and run badly; I would disagree, our debts in comparison to other countries is fairly insignificant. The US for example doesn't seem to have any issues with credit and reputation and they're $15.8trillion in debt.0 -
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we should only have joined the trade bloc0
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Noone is suggesting that we leave the EU without ensuring a free trade agreement with the E.U. in advance. Much like what Switzerland has, Norway, Liechtenstein etc. They are all members of the EEA but they are all, also free to establish trade agreements with other nations as they see fit.
The Swiss also have a long history of sound macroeconomic policy and careful management of their currency. Ireland does not.
A big part of the reason why Ireland's economy took off in the 1990s was because the euro conversion process essentially shackled the 90s governments - they couldn't debase the currency or run wild deficits. This, along with an educated, relatively cheap English-speaking population made Ireland popular with foreign investors, especially Americans. To leave the euro zone is to leave monetary policy solely in the hands of the Irish government - do you really think this will end well? In addition, if Ireland reneges on its commitment to remain a full member of both the euro zone and the EU, what effect do you think it will have on the willingness of outsiders to invest in the country? Given the country's reliance on imports and outside investment, this is not an idle question.
The euro convergence process brought one of the few stable periods in Ireland's economic history. As soon as the constraints of convergence came off, the government went nuts - and we see where that led to. Can anyone in this forum really claim with a straight face that the management of the Irish economy would improve by breaking with the euro and attempting to renegotiate trade policy with the remaining EU states? If someone can make that argument, I'd love to hear it.0 -
I don't think you read that link, it shows that our exports to the (non-UK) EU are greater than our combined exports to both the US and UK. UK imports are higher, I'll grant you, but I don't really think that's the one we should be looking to keep...poeticseraphim wrote: »Someone mentioned the EU as a block being a significant trading partner ..which is a good point
But our US trade and Uk trade still has the largest trade value ... http://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/externaltrade/maintradingpartners-2011m/
Sure, but there's a price to that. As an EU member you get to have a say in European trade. As a member of the EEA, you get a fax from Brussels informing you of what the EU member states have decided. Of course you can reject this, but then you can't trade with the EU. Your choice.Noone is suggesting that we leave the EU without ensuring a free trade agreement with the E.U. in advance. Much like what Switzerland has, Norway, Liechtenstein etc. They are all members of the EEA but they are all, also free to establish trade agreements with other nations as they see fit.0 -
The Corinthian wrote: »... As a member of the EEA, you get a fax from Brussels informing you of what the EU member states have decided. Of course you can reject this, but then you can't trade with the EU. Your choice.
while this may be the situation right now, the EU and EZ are going to change in the next 5 years or so, probably quite dramaticly. if the UK seriously started to talk about leaving the EU the other EU states would have to start making decisions about what relationship they wanted to have with the UK, and how the UK saying 'actually, its not for us' would impact on their domestic politics.
with the greatest of respect to Norway, Iceland and Switzerland, the UK - the 2nd largest economy in the EU, and joint first in terms of military capability - is not a state that will be told 'take it or leave it' by the rest of the EU. the other countries, not least Ireland, will work very hard to produce an agreement that sees the UK remain as a free trade partner with the EU, and that sees the UK remain involved in the EU's foreign policy and defence initiatives.
in 2011 Germany exported £41bn worth of goods to the UK - German industry is not going to be whispering in Mrs Merkels ear that she should make a stand on principle and, if the UK decides that it doesn't like its relationship with Brussels, be prepared to put up trade barriers between the EU and the UK. there will be a deal...
moreover, its not just that the UK will change its relationship with the EU, its that the EU will change, and that everyone will leave the EU as it curretly stands. some countries, like Germany, France, the Netherlands, will get much closer, others will be cast aside, like Greece, and others, like the UK, will be a bit 'semi-detached'.0 -
Have we not seen that Europe writes the rules to suit itself..... if the big players deem that there is merit or a saving for them in getting rid of those of us on the fringes and sinking in debt, then they will make up new rules to allow us to exit the euro, without leaving the EU if that be the best case. Have we not seen new rules for Spains debt, compared to the little countries of Greece, Ireland and Portugal, who had to take it on as soverign debt..... the rules can and will be changed to suit the biggest players. Personally, the whole thing overstepped it's mark, it started off as the organisation for economic co-operation on coal and steel and it should have stayed like that, trade agreements, and nothing more.0
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Have we not seen that Europe writes the rules to suit itself..... if the big players deem that there is merit or a saving for them in getting rid of those of us on the fringes and sinking in debt, then they will make up new rules to allow us to exit the euro, without leaving the EU if that be the best case. Have we not seen new rules for Spains debt, compared to the little countries of Greece, Ireland and Portugal, who had to take it on as soverign debt..... the rules can and will be changed to suit the biggest players. Personally, the whole thing overstepped it's mark, it started off as the organisation for economic co-operation on coal and steel and it should have stayed like that, trade agreements, and nothing more.
So as a small country with a tiny economy, do you think Ireland would have more leverage over trade policy or dealing with foreign creditors by being outside of the EU? In what scenario do the biggest and/or most economically powerful countries and institutions not dictate the terms of these relationships?0 -
I would be all for leaving the Eurozone. If the UK were to leave the EU then ireland should follow and there could be a perfect time for us to forge stronger links with britain by 1. Rejoining the British Commonwealth and
2. Establishing a currency pegged to sterling, if not sterling itself.
Britain is far more important to Ireland than Europe would ever be due to a shared language and the extensive intermingling of our economies. With a common currency that would only strengthen.0 -
What does Britain leaving the EU have to do with us leaving the Eurozone?Bonus_Pack wrote: »I would be all for leaving the Eurozone. If the UK were to leave the EU then ireland should follow and there could be a perfect time for us to forge stronger links with britain by 1. Rejoining the British Commonwealth and
2. Establishing a currency pegged to sterling, if not sterling itself.
Britain is far more important to Ireland than Europe would ever be due to a shared language and the extensive intermingling of our economies. With a common currency that would only strengthen.0 -
poeticseraphim wrote: »I am begining to wonder about the future of the EU and the Euro the likelyhood of it's stability the morals and politics governing the EU right now and the extreme right wing policies of Germany and political manipulation and i feel Ireland might be better out of the Euro is it is run so badly and so debt ridden.
Which are those policies?0 -
goalscoringhero wrote: »Which are those policies?
spending what you've got - its one step away from Fascism you know.
one day you're balancing you budget, the next you're leading a tank division into Poland. apparrently...0 -
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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1386797/Is-Brussels-turn-Schengen-Switzerland-European-country-suggest-reintroducing-border-controls.html
Interestingly ...they are discussing re-introducing border controls of EU countries and turning their bak on the schengen...the excuse is immigrants..
But really it affect EU citizens much more than it would immigrants and turs the EU back decades...
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/german-and-french-proposal-for-border-controls-endangers-european-unity-a-828815.html
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-06-26/eu-has-already-broken-up%E2%80%A6-they-just-haven%E2%80%99t-formalized-yet
It really would not help european business and therefore the euro...
Could it damage the euro and the eu
I thinnk it could be just as damaging as the break up of the euro if not more so
And it has been mentioned that it would be a convienent way of preventing capital flight
EU citizen's rights are being impinged on???0 -
goalscoringhero wrote: »Which are those policies?
Merkel's Austerity policies
Her immigration border control proposals...in fairness i think that is france too.
Her fiscal prudence ideology in oposition to stimulus and debt negotiation.0 -
Can you be more precise? What policies are these? There hasn't been too much austerity in Germany as far as I know.poeticseraphim wrote: »Merkel's Austerity policies
In case you mean the so-called imposed austerity on other countries, it was up to the countries who have been bailed out to formulate their policies, or reject a bailout.
Neither the Greek, nor the Irish, nor the Spanish or Portuguese government chose to do so.
Why didn't they?
They were happy enough to sell out their citizens, making transforming their countries into debt-junkies who just have to produce the correct numbers on a spreadsheet to get the next tranche of bailout funds.
Perhaps it would be a good idea to sort out your own leaders first?
The initial proposal for introducing border control came from Denmark in 2011. And, Ireland and the UK never signed up to Schengen.poeticseraphim wrote: »Her immigration border control proposals...in fairness i think that is france too.
I agree with you that a write down of debt is needed. But to paint Merkel alone as the blocker for such a policy is a bit harsh, eh?poeticseraphim wrote: »Her fiscal prudence ideology in oposition to stimulus and debt negotiation.0 -
goalscoringhero wrote: »Can you be more precise? What policies are these? There hasn't been too much austerity in Germany as far as I know.
In case you mean the so-called imposed austerity on other countries, it was up to the countries who have been bailed out to formulate their policies, or reject a bailout.
Neither the Greek, nor the Irish, nor the Spanish or Portuguese government chose to do so.
Why didn't they?
They were happy enough to sell out their citizens, making transforming their countries into debt-junkies who just have to produce the correct numbers on a spreadsheet to get the next tranche of bailout funds.
Perhaps it would be a good idea to sort out your own leaders first?
The initial proposal for introducing border control came from Denmark in 2011. And, Ireland and the UK never signed up to Schengen.
I agree with you that a write down of debt is needed. But to paint Merkel alone as the blocker for such a policy is a bit harsh, eh?
Hi
I believe the austerity policies in the bailout terms are driven by the German administration. I present the fact that the Germans weighed up our budget before it was made public as an indication of this.
Merkel has introduced cuts on the German health service. And a lot of deregulation in businesses practises (that in and of itself may not be a bad thing)
I never suggested Irelandand Britain are a part of the schengen..however it is something that symbolizes EU unity and it could be used to coontrol capital flight.
Also it does affect us....we use the schengen to transport our export goods freely through the EU after the country of entry.
And it could symbolize or indicate a lack of feeling behind the EU ideal.
It has been suggested before ..but i think it is interesting that it may come into effect now.
I mean i am unsure ..myself ...but i do thinkthe eu and eurozone is becoming ever more unstable and uncertain..0 -
poeticseraphim wrote: »...I mean i am unsure ..myself ...but i do thinkthe eu and eurozone is becoming ever more unstable and uncertain..
while that may be true - since when did business de-regulation and telling chaotic little countries that can't run a whelk stall that thay can't borrow money from you unless they promise not to piss it up the wall become 'far right wing policies'?0 -
It seems to me that if the UK left the EU, there would be a special arrangement between Ireland and the UK for trade, just as there is a special joint free travel area - we're a very important trading partner for them, just as they are for us, so there would be huge pressure within the UK for such an arrangement, particularly since we're primarily an export market
On the other hand, I can't see any equivalent pressure within the EU/eurozone, because there's no one country with similar levels of trade, and particularly with such a level of exports to Ireland.
In terms of the values of each, the eurozone as a currency area is more important to us than the UK, particularly for exports:
|Exports|Exports|Imports|Imports
|Jan-Feb 2011|Jan-Feb 2012|Jan-Feb 2011|Jan-Feb 2012
Great Britain|2023854|2452253|2566582|2543301
Northern Ireland|210848|221161|163074|171791
UK|2234702|2673414|2729656|2715092
Austria|48184|50829|37662|42870
Belgium|2301919|2565742|211908|131489
Cyprus|4040|4745|327|425
Estonia|3061|1834|688|608
Finland|39658|55529|15085|14387
France|976375|735942|334030|329206
Germany|944224|1044762|641183|584692
Greece|44359|51272|4859|4301
Italy|514761|503721|130685|115844
Luxembourg|11749|9726|5798|5540
Malta|3514|4604|1481|1940
Netherlands|475142|511510|405654|329303
Portugal|66591|55474|21714|18615
Romania|48935|49422|20779|21151
Slovakia|9743|10004|9752|16800
Slovenia|3390|3201|2376|1493
Spain|474233|453411|109343|119291
Eurozone|5969878|6111728|1953324|1737955
Bulgaria|5683|8205|1640|1328
Czech Republic|101792|64457|46288|61994
Denmark|68501|84427|101229|86177
Latvia|7605|9142|6553|4301
Lithuania|6429|3039|15311|13735
Hungary|27704|27462|17236|18205
Poland|78687|94296|47785|54654
Sweden|125781|105093|66869|92707
Rest of EU|422182|396121|302911|333101
Total|8626762|9181263|4985891|4786148
GB|25.90%|29.12%|54.75%|56.73%
Eurozone|69.20%|66.57%|39.18%|36.31%
Rest of EU|4.89%|4.31%|6.08%|6.96%
Source: http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/externaltrade/2012/trade_feb2012.pdf
The eurozone is 66-69% of our EU exports, the UK only 25-29%. In terms of imports, the UK is our biggest source. However, looking at imports and exports combined, the eurozone is more important by quite some way. The UK comes out at about 36-38% of our trade, the eurozone at 56-58%.
A further point worth making, perhaps, is that the UK is a major destination for agricultural exports rather than anything else:
|Agricultural Produce|Forestry and Fishing Produce|Industrial Produce|Unclassified Exports|Total Exports
Great Britain and NI|56.16%|33.24%|24.50%|70.16%|28.16%
Eurozone|43.84%|66.76%|75.50%|29.84%|71.84%
Of course, we still think of ourselves as a primarily agricultural-export country - but that's not even remotely true. We are, on the contrary, primarily an industrial exporter. Of our approximately €90bn in exports in 2011, only 6% was agricultural:
Period and Area|Agricultural Produce|Forestry and Fishing Produce|Industrial Produce|Unclassified Exports|Total Exports
Great Britain and NI|2740|139|11127|462|14468
Eurozone|2138.5|279.18|34290.26|196.46|36904.4
Rest of EU|136.5|17.82|2188.74|12.54|2355.6
Rest of world|840|88|38194|38|39160
Total|5855|524|85800|709|92888
%|6.30%|0.56%|92.37%|0.76%|100.00%
To some extent, I suspect the lingering impression of the UK looming larger than the eurozone as an export destination is related to its dominance as an agricultural export destination. But 92% of our exports are actually industrial, and of that, the eurozone absorbs three times more than the UK.
To come back to the original point - if the UK left the EU, it would be much better for Ireland to remain in the eurozone and EU. They are not a larger trade partner than the eurozone, they would be forced to make special arrangements for us, and we would pick up yet further FDI and European HQs - indeed, we would immediately become a massive destination for the HQs of UK companies doing business with the EU and eurozone. On balance, I rather think the UK leaving while we stay would be hugely profitable for us, although we'd lose a valuable ally within the EU.
cordially,
Scofflaw0 -
...To come back to the original point - if the UK left the EU, it would be much better for Ireland to remain in the eurozone and EU...
while i don't dispute that as the situation stands, i think that the only circumstances where the UK would actually leave the EU is where the EU is becoming a very different beast to what it is now. the UK doesn't like the EU as it stands, but it doesn't dislike it enough to walk out with the risks that that currently entails.
so, the circumstances where the UK leaves a 'future EU' may be very different to those which currently pertain - we could be looking at an EZ where the 'ever closer union' is becoming a reality with an actual functioning government, or where the shape of the EZ is radically different - no Greece, no Portugal, no Spain, maybe even just Germany, the Netherlands and a few others. there may not be a 'real' EU outside the EZ - or, alternatively, the EZ may contract into a 'superstate' and the rest of the EU changes to become more like the old free trade area - in which case the UK would be very unlikely to leave.
its all very well to say 'if the UK leaves, Ireland should not follow it as the situation stands' - but the UK isn't going to leave the EU as the current situation stands, it would only leave (imv) if the EU radically changed, and if the EU/EZ radically changes, it may be that the pro's and cons of Irelands membership will change.0 -
while i don't dispute that as the situation stands, i think that the only circumstances where the UK would actually leave the EU is where the EU is becoming a very different beast to what it is now. the UK doesn't like the EU as it stands, but it doesn't dislike it enough to walk out with the risks that that currently entails.
so, the circumstances where the UK leaves a 'future EU' may be very different to those which currently pertain - we could be looking at an EZ where the 'ever closer union' is becoming a reality with an actual functioning government, or where the shape of the EZ is radically different - no Greece, no Portugal, no Spain, maybe even just Germany, the Netherlands and a few others. there may not be a 'real' EU outside the EZ - or, alternatively, the EZ may contract into a 'superstate' and the rest of the EU changes to become more like the old free trade area - in which case the UK would be very unlikely to leave.
its all very well to say 'if the UK leaves, Ireland should not follow it as the situation stands' - but the UK isn't going to leave the EU as the current situation stands, it would only leave (imv) if the EU radically changed, and if the EU/EZ radically changes, it may be that the pro's and cons of Irelands membership will change.
Undeniably so - one might also say that of the EU were the fascist superstate some people like to believe it is, then the calculation would also be different.
I don't think the current round of integration proposals change the calculations from Ireland's perspective, though.
cordially,
Scofflaw0 -
Fratton Fred wrote: »The UK isn't going to leave the eu for the simple reason that they both need each other too much.
Apparently some are not so convinced as yourself.
http://www.economist.com/node/21557315
Yet the chances of Britain leaving the EU in the next few years are higher than they have ever been. A Brixit looms for several reasons.0 -
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Apparently some are not so convinced as yourself.
http://www.economist.com/node/21557315
Yet the chances of Britain leaving the EU in the next few years are higher than they have ever been. A Brixit looms for several reasons.
Good article - it does look like the UK is sort of stumbling towards the exit, not with any clear plan but through brinkmanship both with the other EU countries and between the UK parties:None of the party leaders want to leave the EU, but it could happen. All have much to lose from an EU referendum, yet such a vote is starting to feel almost inevitable. How this ends is unknowable, and only partly in Britain’s hands.
cordially,
Scofflaw0
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