NFL Betting Thread 2015/2016

skippymac6 wrote: »

The more I look at it the more I like Big Ben to have a 300 yard game tonight. I think without Pouncey and Bell, that their running game is going to struggle to get off the ground. I think Big Ben is going to have to connect with Brown, Wheaton, Miller etc early and often to keep it close. Also, the Patriots front 7 is very strong while their secondary is anything but with the loss of Browner and esp Revis. Ben will be without Bryant and also Bell who is a big target for him out of the backfield too, but think he can certainly spread it around enough to get to 300.

I suppose if he is going to get anywhere near 300 yards then Brown is going to have to have a big game. He will more than draw the attention of the SB hero Malcom Butler and while Butler is a a good young player, he might find it tough against a genuine top 3 receiver in the league. Brown's yards are set at 95.5 so if the weather is decent, I'll take both of these bets later.

skippymac6 wrote: »

I certainly agre with you on the Chiefs bet. I think that they may go off favourite by kick off. Their defence is loaded and with Eric Berry back too now, they will be fired up for that game. It's hard not to root for the Texans after hard knocks but without Arian Foster I don't think they'll be able to do much on offense. They'll need to get used to not having him there so the first few weeks could be a struggle. Chiefs to win and under 40 points if you wanted to chance a double.

I really like the Dolphins -4 too. Missed the -3 last week but I still fully expect them to dominate. The Redskins offensive line is poor at best and I think Suh and Wake will be giving Cousins fits all day. On the flip side, even though the Redskins have some good pass rushers themselves, I think that Tannehill is finally showing some improvement and he has some very decent skill players around him now with Miller, Stills, Parker, Landry and Cameron. I expect the Fins to win with something to spare.

Bengals -3.5 at the Raiders seems a good shout too. The Bengals are absolutely loaded on offence. Can you imagine Luck, Rodgers etc on that team? Hill and Bernard at running back. A healthy (hopefully) AJ Green & Marvin Jones, Sanu and Tyler Eiffert! If Dalton can be anyway effective they should average close to 30 points per game. There is a lot of optimism in Oakland this year with Mack, Carr, Amari Cooper etc all looking promising but the Bengals have reached the playoffs four straight years, I expect them to take care of business here.

While I don't like close to TD sized spreads for an away side. I do think GB will be too good for the Bears. I genuinely believe that the Bears are one of the worst teams in the NFL and if Cutler doesn't perform, that they could be one of teams contending for the number 1 overall pick. That might seem extreme but their defence was shocking last year, they've lost their best receiver and the QB just can't play consistently at all. I expect Rodgers to pick their secondary apart and put up 30 points and win by 10 so GB -5.5 for me in the live Sky game.

The last bet I really like but is not priced up yet is Andrew Luck over 'x' amount of pass attempts. That Bills defence is ferocious and the Colts, even though they've added Frank Gore, are not a good running team. I think they will struggle to establish the run and might find themselves behind early on. I think they will lean on Luck's arm and while he might not put up gaudy numbers, I expect him to attempt a lot of passes. Luck averaged 38.5 pass attempts last year but I think he might hit 40 this weekend. Obviously the fly in the ointment is if Buffallo can run McCoy all over the Colts D and keep luck off the field for long periods. But even if this were to happen, I think that would only encourage the Colts to abandon the running game and let Luck do the majority of the work.

That_Guy wrote: »

Gone for the following 4 team accumulator. No big stakes given that it's only week 1. More for interest than anything.

Patriots (-7)
Chiefs (+1)
Dolphins (-3.5)
Bengals (-3.5)

Paully D wrote: »

Turns into a treble mate.

skippymac6 wrote: »

Week 2 is a hard betting angle to approach as teams in week 1 could have looked better or worse than what they actually are and the form lines still need some sorting out. With that in mind I like a few teams this week that lost, and a couple that won! I like the Giants -2 against the Falcons for a start. The Giants did have some opportune TDs against the Cowboys but they played a solid game and were in position to win it before the messing at the end and the lond TD drive from the Cowboys. Odell Beckham was nearly non existent and I think the offence will improve a lot this week. The Falcons were always going to get a performance on Monday against the NFL's most hyped team, at home, on Primetime and with a new coach at the helm. I think they will have a bit of comedown this week and I believe the G men will get it done.

I also like the Bengals -3 at home to the Chargers. Cincy don't get talked about a lot with Dalton at QB but they have a top 5 Offence up there and their Defence is par for league standards too I think. The Chargers played excellent in the second half last week but I think Cincy might have too much for them. They match up well with them in my mind and I'll be taking the -3.

I fancy Steelers -5. They should have been closer to the Pats last week but they were wasteful from the 30 yard line inwards. Much like the Falcons, the 49rs were being wrote off by the media and behind a raucous crowd on Monday they put a Vikings team that looked like they were believing all the off-season hype about them, firmly to the sword. The Steelers are still without Bell but I'm not sure they would get much out of that niners D on the ground anyway. I think Big Ben puts this game on his shoulders and tehy get out to an early lead and force Kap to throw the ball as opposed to handing off to Hyde and force some turnovers.

Packers -3 won't be everyone's cup of tea but I put a lot of stock into the morale/confidence/emotion etc of a team and no team will be targetting a game this week like the Packers. When the schedule was announced they would have circled this primetime slot after the NFC championship debacle and even though they did not look spectacular by any means last week, I think they can put it all together this week and make a statement. I would be more confident if Seattle had not have lost week 1 and if Kam Chancellor comes back this week, that will give them even more impetus, but I just feel that GB owes Seattle and they will take their chance at home on Sunday night.

Looking at tonight's game, I expect a defensive struggle but at o/u 41.5, that is very low. I am going to stake a small bet on Broncos +3.5. Manning has rightly been criticised in the media this week (and most of the summer) and this bet really depends on the Broncos being able to establish the run which they were not able to do against the Ravens. It will be a wild atmosphere in Arrowhead tonight and I am taking a stab on the Broncos D and running game to do enough to get the Broncos over the line or within a field goal.

Paully D wrote: »

Hoping to get back to winning ways after my Ravens bet lost last week to spoil an excellent start.

Giants -2.5 at 9/10 (Boyles) tonight. Good luck all.