Gameweek Odds Thread - FPL 2015/2016

km79 · 21-08-2015 6:37pm

Ivanovic 250\1
he says in hope

CSF · 21-08-2015 6:55pm

km79 wrote: »

Ivanovic 250\1
he says in hope

Rumours he will be dropped

km79 · 21-08-2015 7:10pm

CSF wrote: »

Rumours he will be dropped

again like van aanholt he was poor
but I don't know if he will be dropped
I think José will give them a chance to redeem themselves
but he is GONE from my team forever when I wildcard
got him for the 1st time for last season for last 1\3 of the season
solid one and 2 pointers all the way
feared his customary early season form so ignored how poor he and Chelsea looked in preseason

Iused2likebusts · 21-08-2015 7:34pm

Kolorav mata and hazard all good prices.

spock. · 21-08-2015 8:53pm

Iused2likebusts wrote:

Kolorav mata and hazard all good prices.

Yeah Kolarov is the only one I've gone for this week.

Iused2likebusts · 23-08-2015 7:29pm

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Kolorav mata and hazard all good prices.

Close with kolorav 160/1 I think.

Paully D · 26-08-2015 11:36pm

Here we go with Gameweek 4's odds. I'm going to use Spock's template from now on as it's a little quicker to type out.

Newcastle v Arsenal

CS: 11/2 v 27/20
AGS: Giroud (13/10), Alexis (6/4), Walcott (7/4), Ramsey (3/1), Mitrovic (10/3), Ozil (7/2)

Aston Villa v Sunderland

CS: 13/10 v 16/5
AGS: Gestede (39/20), Ayew (9/4), Defoe (16/5), Sinclair (37/10), Lens (23/4)

Bournemouth v Leicester

CS: 21/10 v 10/3
AGS: Wilson (15/8), Vardy (11/4), Ritchie (10/3), Mahrez (41/10), Albrighton (7/1)

Chelsea v Palace

CS: 19/20 v 15/2
AGS: Costa (19/20), Hazard (29/20), Pedro (9/5), Fabregas (4/1), Murray/Wickham/Bamford (5/1)

Liverpool v West Ham

CS: 19/20 v 8/1
AGS: Benteke (21/20), Firmino (7/4), Coutinho (2/1), Sakho (4/1), Payet (6/1)

Manchester City v Watford

CS: EVS v 14/1
AGS: Aguero (4/6), Sterling (15/8), Silva (2/1), Yaya (9/4), Deeney (5/1)

Stoke v West Brom

CS: 13/10 v 3/1
AGS: Diouf (2/1), Shaqiri (31/10), Walters (11/4), Berahino/Rondon (7/2), Arnautovic (19/5)

Tottenham v Everton

CS: 15/8 v 19/5
AGS: Kane (6/5), Eriksen (5/2), Chadli/Lukaku (11/4), Kone/Mirallas (4/1)

Southampton v Norwich

CS: 8/5 v 18/5
AGS: Pelle (6/4), J-Rod/Mane/Long (9/4), Jerome (14/5), Tadic (3/1), Hoolohan (4/1) Redmond (13/2)

Swansea v Manchester United

CS: 11/4 v 7/4
AGS: Rooney (21/10), Depay (40/17), Gomis (5/2), Mata (18/5), Ayew (19/5)

Notes:

- Chelsea and Liverpool are the 2 teams odds-on to keep a clean sheet this week. Perhaps surprisingly, Manchester City are available at even money.

- Only 2 players are odds-on to score this week, they are Aguero and Costa. Benteke and Kane are the next two most fancied goalscorers.

- Off topic, but my personal opinion is that Pedro (9/5) and Mahrez (41/10) look good value as anytime goalscorers if you're having a punt.

Lemlin · 26-08-2015 11:40pm

Paully D wrote: »

Here we go with Gameweek 4's odds. I'm going to use Spock's template from now on as it's a little quicker to type out.

Newcastle v Arsenal

CS: 11/2 v 27/20
AGS: Giroud (13/10), Alexis (6/4), Walcott (7/4), Ramsey (3/1), Mitrovic (10/3), Ozil (7/2)

Aston Villa v Sunderland

CS: 13/10 v 16/5
AGS: Gestede (39/20), Ayew (9/4), Defoe (16/5), Sinclair (37/10), Lens (23/4)

Bournemouth v Leicester

CS: 21/10 v 10/3
AGS: Wilson (15/8), Vardy (11/4), Ritchie (10/3), Mahrez (41/10), Albrighton (7/1)

Chelsea v Palace

CS: 19/20 v 15/2
AGS: Costa (19/20), Hazard (29/20), Pedro (9/5), Fabregas (4/1), Murray/Wickham/Bamford (5/1)

Liverpool v West Ham

CS: 19/20 v 8/1
AGS: Benteke (21/20), Firmino (7/4), Coutinho (2/1), Sakho (4/1), Payet (6/1)

Manchester City v Watford

CS: EVS v 14/1
AGS: Aguero (4/6), Sterling (15/8), Silva (2/1), Yaya (9/4), Deeney (5/1)

Stoke v West Brom

CS: 13/10 v 3/1
AGS: Diouf (2/1), Shaqiri (31/10), Walters (11/4), Berahino/Rondon (7/2), Arnautovic (19/5)

Tottenham v Everton

CS: 15/8 v 19/5
AGS: Kane (6/5), Eriksen (5/2), Chadli/Lukaku (11/4), Kone/Mirallas (4/1)

Southampton v Norwich

CS: 8/5 v 18/5
AGS: Pelle (6/4), J-Rod/Mane/Long (9/4), Jerome (14/5), Tadic (3/1), Hoolohan (4/1) Redmond (13/2)

Swansea v Manchester United

CS: 11/4 v 7/4
AGS: Rooney (21/10), Depay (40/17), Gomis (5/2), Mata (18/5), Ayew (19/5)

Notes:

- Chelsea and Liverpool are the 2 teams odds-on to keep a clean sheet this week. Perhaps surprisingly, Manchester City are available at even money.

- Only 2 players are odds-on to score this week, they are Aguero and Costa. Perhaps surprisingly, Rooney is the same price to score away to Swansea as Benteke is to bag at home to West Ham.

- Off topic, but my personal opinion is that Pedro (9/5) and Mahrez (41/10) look good value as anytime goalscorers if you're having a punt.

Is Benteke not 21/20 (near enough evens) and Rooney 21/10 (2/1 basically)?

I could be getting that arseways but that's my reading of it above. I'm not a huge gambler.

Paully D · 26-08-2015 11:42pm

Lemlin wrote: »

Is Benteke not 21/20 (near enough evens) and Rooney 21/10 (2/1 basically)?

You're correct. I thought it was strange when I was typing it out. I've just been looking at so many different odds over the past half an hour :pac: Will edit my post now. Cheers

PARlance · 27-08-2015 12:02am

Paully D wrote: »

Notes:

- Chelsea and Liverpool are the 2 teams odds-on to keep a clean sheet this week. Perhaps surprisingly, Manchester City are available at even money.

Very surprising odds... Only Sunderland (8) have conceded more than Chelsea (7), Liverpool obviously have great record with 0.
But they're both playing free scoring teams in West Ham (6) and Palace (6) with only Man City and Leicester topping them in goals scored.

Do they know something about Man City that we don't? 3 CS's so far against the mighty Watford with 2 goals.

Lemlin · 27-08-2015 6:52am

PARlance wrote: »

Very surprising odds... Only Sunderland (8) have conceded more than Chelsea (7), Liverpool obviously have great record with 0.
But they're both playing free scoring teams in West Ham (6) and Palace (6) with only Man City and Leicester topping them in goals scored.

Do they know something about Man City that we don't? 3 CS's so far against the mighty Watford with 2 goals.

One thing I sometimes wonder - I realise we use bookies odds because of their statistical analysis to arrive at their odds but do we take into account the effect the punter has on same?

I remember reading an article a few years back about Dublin GAA team. The article pointed out that their odds were often shortened even though the bookies didn't expect them to win because they were always heavily backed due to having a huge supporter base.

Could Chelsea's odds for a CS be effected by the fact that they are still being heavily backed by punters for same?

PARlance · 27-08-2015 9:02am

Lemlin wrote: »

One thing I sometimes wonder - I realise we use bookies odds because of their statistical analysis to arrive at their odds but do we take into account the effect the punter has on same?

I remember reading an article a few years back about Dublin GAA team. The article pointed out that their odds were often shortened even though the bookies didn't expect them to win because they were always heavily backed due to having a huge supporter base.

Could Chelsea's odds for a CS be effected by the fact that they are still being heavily backed by punters for same?

Afaik, odds like first goalscorer, AGS, CS are all very static... in that they are set by the bookies in advance and rarely fluctuate. 99.9% of odds will be in favour of the bookie in the sense that they'll set them with a premium in mind.

Re cases like Dublin, that would be more akin to a horse race imo, in that it would be a big betting market with volatility. Even though the team mightn't change and a horse remains the same horse he was 5 mins ago... the bookies will shorten the price to reduce their exposure if they see lots of money being placed on it/them.

But yes, I would think they would take more of a premium for a popular team like Chelsea as opposed to a similar team (in terms of chances of conceding in a lower league) because they know punters look at the outcome of the bet more so than the value within it.

The last time I was surprised at the bookies being so favourable (as City Evs CS) with odds on here was Sunderland 7/2 to bet Newcastle at home when Sun were flying and New in a rut. That was my last football bet and City Evs will be my next.

AdMMM · 27-08-2015 9:05am

Lemlin wrote: »

One thing I sometimes wonder - I realise we use bookies odds because of their statistical analysis to arrive at their odds but do we take into account the effect the punter has on same?

I remember reading an article a few years back about Dublin GAA team. The article pointed out that their odds were often shortened even though the bookies didn't expect them to win because they were always heavily backed due to having a huge supporter base.

Could Chelsea's odds for a CS be effected by the fact that they are still being heavily backed by punters for same?

GAA is different because it's quite a small market and it wouldn't take too many large bets to trigger a price movement in one direction or another.

Also, most of the money doesn't go on these markets until the last 24 hours in the run-up to the game, especially the more niche markets.

Iused2likebusts · 27-08-2015 9:18am

Some interesting odds. Hopefully they are right about mahrez''s chances of another goal. I think after aguero kolorav is the best captain option this week.

FHFC · 27-08-2015 10:40am

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Some interesting odds. Hopefully they are right about mahrez''s chances of another goal. I think after aguero kolorav is the best captain option this week.

He scores when he wants. He scores when he wants.
Riyad Mahrez. He scores when he wants!!

spock. · 27-08-2015 12:24pm

Mahrez at over 4/1 away to Bournemouth is odd when he was 7/2 best price away to West Ham iirc and he's scored twice since then.

I wouldn't be totally against him blanking though, as a Francis clean sheet is more of a differential than a Mahrez goal.

Paully D · 27-08-2015 5:12pm

PARlance wrote: »

The last time I was surprised at the bookies being so favourable (as City Evs CS) with odds on here was Sunderland 7/2 to bet Newcastle at home when Sun were flying and New in a rut. That was my last football bet and City Evs will be my next.

Ah, good times.

PARlance · 29-08-2015 9:21am

Going to go against the bookies on the Liverpool CS and start Kolarov, Darmian & Richards... leaving Gomez & Targett on the bench.

Going with my gut on this, West Ham have been hot and cold but they're still scoring.

PARlance · 29-08-2015 6:45pm

PARlance wrote: »

Very surprising odds... Only Sunderland (8) have conceded more than Chelsea (7), Liverpool obviously have great record with 0.
But they're both playing free scoring teams in West Ham (6) and Palace (6) with only Man City and Leicester topping them in goals scored.

Do they know something about Man City that we don't? 3 CS's so far against the mighty Watford with 2 goals.

^^^
The only positive from this weekend. Drinks are on Paddy this weekend, bit of change left over to buy a ticket to see Mayo too

km79 · 29-08-2015 7:00pm

PARlance wrote: »

^^^
The only positive from this weekend. Drinks are on Paddy this weekend, bit of change left over to buy a ticket to see Mayo too

good luck finding one

FHFC · 12-09-2015 12:20am

Anyone care to oblige?

Invincible · 12-09-2015 12:32am

FHFC wrote: »

Anyone care to oblige?

Here ya go

Ziegler1988 · 17-09-2015 1:07pm

Arsenal 3/1 to keep a clean sheet, Palace 7/2 but I think I'm going with Souare over Bellerin. We haven't kept a clean sheet at Stamford Bridge in 10 years and Spurs might have a Europa hangover

lougal88 · 17-09-2015 1:33pm

Ziegler1988 wrote: »

Arsenal 3/1 to keep a clean sheet, Palace 7/2 but I think I'm going with Souare over Bellerin. We haven't kept a clean sheet at Stamford Bridge in 10 years and Spurs might have a Europa hangover

My GKs are Cech/McCarthy and am torn between them also. Thought it would be madness to go for McCarthy but having 2nd thoughts now. Hmmmm.....

Ziegler1988 · 17-09-2015 1:45pm

lougal88 wrote: »

My GKs are Cech/McCarthy and am torn between them also. Thought it would be madness to go for McCarthy but having 2nd thoughts now. Hmmmm.....

That's a 50/50. I haven't looked at the stats to back it up, but I believe Spurs take more long range shots than Chelsea which would be good for save points and in turn potential baps

Green&Red · 17-09-2015 4:57pm

I'm in a LMS, have a choice of
Chelsea
Newcastle
Stoke
Spurs
Bournemouth

Currently on Chelsea #injosewetrust

spock. · 17-09-2015 5:19pm

I would definitely go with Bournemouth if i were you.

lougal88 · 17-09-2015 5:20pm

spock. wrote: »

I would definitely go with Bournemouth if i were you.

+1

I'm hoping Wilson tears them to shreds!!

FHFC · 26-09-2015 12:30am

CLEAN SHEET ODDS WM HILL
Man Utd 7/10
Liverpool 21/20
Soton, Chelsea 11/8
Arsenal 17/10
West Ham, Man City 15/8
West Brom 21/10
Stoke 2/1
Everton, Watford 9/5
Palace 11/5
Bournemouth 12/5
Swansea 13/5
Spurs 15/4
Norwich 14/5
Newcastle, Leicester 9/2
Villa 5/1
Sunderland 17/2

Edit. Important error in original post. West brom 21/10 not 21/20.

PARlance · 26-09-2015 10:13am

Villa 5/1, yes please.

Gameweek Odds Thread - FPL 2015/2016

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