Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie
Hi all,
Vanilla are planning an update to the site on April 24th (next Wednesday). It is a major PHP8 update which is expected to boost performance across the site. The site will be down from 7pm and it is expected to take about an hour to complete. We appreciate your patience during the update.
Thanks all.

March 2012 Boards forecast contest

124»

Comments

  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    22.2c in the Mullet today and even more to come tomorrow perhaps. But Seafilelds had the month in the bag yesterday.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 326 ✭✭K_1


    pauldry wrote: »
    22c in the mullet!

    we wait a year for some good weather in the West and we get Summer in March.

    I think this will be a roasting year personally.:cool: Could be freezing either :D

    3 months way above average, I'd be surprised to see it being cold on average! I think you're right, could potentially be record breaking for the year.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,872 ✭✭✭pauldry


    not sure on exact figures but looks like this month will end up with an IMT of more than 8.6c


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,319 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Now for an update after the fourth week (22-28 March) ...

    IMT ... now on 8.5 C after a week at 10.5 C.

    PRC 38% of normal after a very dry week (8% of normal over the eleven stations, most were bone dry.)

    SUN 112% of normal after a sunny week (191% of normal, held back by Shannon's sub-160 reading).

    Looks like extensive use of the "minimum progression" scoring rule all over the contest this month, raw scores would be rather grim with these extreme values rolling in (sunshine on the other hand looks set to sink back towards 100% now, precip seems locked into a value below 50%).

    April contest is now open for your entries, bonus is max for Easter Sunday at Dublin.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly



    Although not complete as of yet, the combined mean sea level pressure value from 3 of the stations used in the IMT index (namely Shannon, Casement & Claremorris) for the Jan-March period this year so far is running at 1023.7 hPa :eek:.(1961-90 average for period is 1012.1 hPa)

    Up to today, the 3 station MSLP mean value is standing at 1024.5 hPa.This will make it the highest January-March mean value on record, beating the 1953 Jan-Mar mean value by just over 1.0 hPa. Will be interesting to see if this trend of anomalously high pressure values will continue over the next 3 months :)

    IMT singularities for the 3 month period January-March (based on 4 year period 2009-2012 and on midnight to midnight readings).

    Warmest day: 25th March - Mean = 9.75 °C
    Coldest Day: 7th January - Mean = 0.27 °C
    Wettest Day: 4th February - Mean = 8.06mm
    Driest Day: 28th March - Mean = 0.08mm

    Singularities are not based on any one year but when certain weather events are more likely to occur based on the average of a number of years. I have only been collecting daily data for 4 years which is not enough to get an overall overview of singularities in Ireland but should at least give an idea of recent trends at least. Some interesting singularities that were developed for the UK/European region here.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 14,319 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I will score March tomorrow when the final numbers are available, but already could say that Jerry Seinfeld seems to have done well. Pretty sure that the IMT will finish around 8.7 and that's above all predictions, same with the maximum (22.4 at least) and also the rainfall is below all predictions (but Jerry came closest at 70%). Have a look in Monday evening for the scoring and I may then start up an annual scoring thread.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,319 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Final figures for March:

    IMT 8.6 C

    max 22.2 (27th Belmullet)

    min -2.1 (17th Mullingar)

    prec 36% of normal :)

    sun 124% of normal

    bonus: 3.2 hrs sun on 17th

    scoring will appear in about an hour.

    (The sunshine data crept up above my estimates, could be faulty estimates on missing stations earlier, because the last three days seemed rather cloudy on the average).


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,319 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Scoring for March contest

    Forecaster ............ IMT .. MAX .. MIN .. PRC .. SUN .. sun-17 .. TOTAL
    _______________________________________________________________

    Actual values............ 8.6 . 22.2 . -2.1 . 124 . 036 . 3.2

    K_1 ......................... 14 ... 14* . 19 ... 12* . 03 ... 09 ... 71
    SeaFields ................. 14 ... 18* . 19 ... 00 ... 01 ... 05 ... 57
    Jerry Seinfeld ............ 15 ... 12* . 02 ... 14* . 04 ... 08 ... 55
    Gonzo ...................... 12 ... 16* . 18 ... 00 ... 02 ... 07 ... 55
    rameire .................... 12 ... 05* . 15 ... 13* . 01 ... 07 ... 53
    waterways ............... 24 ... 02* . 14 ... 00 ... 05 ... 08 ... 53
    Strasser ................... 13 ... 00 ... 20 ... 04* . 05 ... 10 ... 52
    Sponge Bob .............. 21 ... 00 ... 10 ... 08* . 07 ... 04 ... 50
    jd ........................... 10 ... 05* . 19 ... 02* . 04 ... 07 ... 47
    pauldry .................... 20 ... 06* . 11 ... 00 ... 04 ... 04 ... 45
    Steopo .................... 05 ... 00 ... 13 ... 10* . 07 ... 09 ... 44
    kindredspirit .............. 18 ... 00 ... 11 ... 02* . 04 ... 04 ... 39
    H2UMrsRobinson ........ 07 ... 00 ... 17 ... 08* . 01 ... 05 ... 38
    mickger844posts ........ 00 ... 00 ... 09 ... 11* . 09 ... 09 ... 38
    lostinashford ............. 03 ... 11* . 16 ... 01* . 04 ... 02 ... 37
    Rebelbrowser* .......... 10 ... 00 ... 16 ... 00 ... 04 ... 06 ... 36
    alfa beta .................. 11 ... 00 ... 18 ... 00 ... 04 ... 01 ... 34
    nilhg ........................ 10 ... 00 ... 10 ... 00 ... 06 ... 07 ... 33
    traecy1 .................... 04 ... 00 ... 13 ... 00 ... 06 ... 10 ... 33
    Wild Bill .................... 10 ... 11* . 00 ... 07* . 03 ... 01 ... 32
    DOCARCH .................. 00 ... 00 ... 09 ... 09* . 04 ... 10 ... 32
    MiNdGaM3* ............... 09 ... 00 ... 11 ... 00 ... 03 ... 08 ... 31
    Tae laidir .................. 09 ... 00 ... 09 ... 07* . 03 ... 03 ... 31
    okla ......................... 03 ... 05* . 00 ... 07* . 07 ... 09 ... 31

    Con Sensus .............. 09 ... 00 ... 09 ... 02* . 04 ... 07 ... 31

    Rickylovesuall ............ 18 ... 00 ... 01 ... 04* . 07 ... 00 ... 30
    NIALL D .................... 08 ... 00 ... 07 ... 00 ... 05 ... 08 ... 28
    Lumi ........................ 10 ... 00 ... 07 ... 04* . 05 ... 02 ... 28
    snowstreams ............. 02 ... 01* . 09 ... 02* . 07 ... 07 ... 28
    John mac ................. 10 ... 00 ... 00 ... 00 ... 06 ... 10 ... 26
    Iancar29 .................. 00 ... 11* . 00 ... 07* . 07 ... 01 ... 26
    homolumo* ............... 07 ... 01* . 08 ... 00 ... 05 ... 03 ... 24
    jambofc ................... 10 ... 00 ... 02 ... 00 ... 07 ... 03 ... 22
    Hammer Archer .......... 04 ... 01* . 07 ... 00 ... 03 ... 07 ... 22
    Deep Easterly ............ 02 ... 00 ... 10 ... 00 ... 07 ... 03 ... 22
    M.T. Cranium ............ 10 ... 00 ... 00 ... 00 ... 06 ... 05 ... 21
    talkabout .................. 02 ... 07* . 00 ... 04* . 06 ... 01 ... 20
    Harps ....................... 03 ... 00 ... 00 ... 02* . 07 ... 06 ... 18
    200motels ................. 02 ... 08* . 02 ... 00 ... 04 ... 02 ... 18
    dacogawa ................. 03 ... 00 ... 01 ... 01* . 07 ... 05 ... 17
    dasa29 ..................... 00 ... 00 ... 11 ... 00 ... 04 ... 01 ... 16
    delw ........................ 04 ... 00 ... 01 ... 04* . 03 ... 03 ... 15
    redsunset ................. 00 ... 00 ... 00 ... 07* . 05 ... 00 ... 12
    cherryghost ............... 01 ... 00 ... 00 ... 00 ... 04 ... 06 ... 11
    Joe Public ................. 00 ... 00 ... 00 ... 00 ... 03 ... 05 ... 08
    ________________________________

    * beside names, late penalty could apply (but was not needed)

    * beside scores for max temp and precip, "minimum progression" rule applied.

    Congrats to K_1, SeaFields, Jerry Seinfeld and Gonzo for doing much better than most in this difficult month (Con Sensus struggled too).

    I won't start an annual scoring thread for a while yet, we will just keep track of that in the monthly threads until perhaps August or so. Therefore, look for another post later on the annual scoring race -- probably around midnight as I have some errands to run now.


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,687 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Thanks as always MT.

    Thought I was screwed but didn't do as bad as I had expected! :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,551 ✭✭✭SeaFields


    Ahhh second place....it was worth the sunburn :cool::pac:

    Thanks MT


  • Advertisement
  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    Like the winter past my placing was pure meh :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,319 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Thanks as always MT.

    Thought I was screwed but didn't do as bad as I had expected! :pac:

    ... thought I was screwed and I was right. Just starting to work on that annual table, now we'll see who's really screwed.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,872 ✭✭✭pauldry


    happy enough with my performance but expect a big fall in the impossible to predict Summer months.

    Fair play to K 1 thats a good score for March


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,319 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Annual scoring table
    ______________________

    Rank .. Forecaster .... J .. F .. M ... Total ... Avg (rank)

    1 .. rameire ............65..44..53 ... 162 ... 54.0 .. 2
    1 .. H2UMrsRobinson.70..54..38 ... 162 ... 54.0 .. 2

    3 .. Jerry Seinfeld.....56..48..55 ... 159 ... 53.0 .. 4
    4 .. pauldry ............61..48..45 ... 154 ... 51.3 .. 5
    5 .. Sponge Bob ......52..50..50 ... 152 ... 50.7 .. 6
    6 .. kindredspirit ......60..48..39 ... 147 ... 49.0 .. 7
    6 .. nilhg ................67..47..33 ... 147 ... 49.0 .. 7
    8 .. 200motels ........56..69..18 ... 143 ... 47.7 .. 9

    9 .. John mac .........62..53..26 ... 141 ... 47.0 .. 10
    10 .waterways .......58..29..53 ... 140 ... 46.7 .. 11
    11 .K_1 .................40..25..71 ... 136 ... 45.3 .. 12
    12 .Lumi ................62..45..28 ... 135 ... 45.0 .. 13
    13 .delw ................57..57..15 ... 129 ... 43.0 .. 14
    14 .mickger844posts 62..26..38 ... 126 ... 42.0 .. 15
    15 .jd ....................50..28..47 ... 125 ... 41.7 .. 17
    16 .Rickylovesuall ....42..52..30 ... 124 ... 41.3 .. 18
    17 .cherryghost ......56..51..11 ... 118 ... 39.3 .. 19
    18 .Steopo .............53..20..44 ... 117 ... 39.0 .. 20

    18 .Con Sensus ......58..28..31 ... 117 ... 39.0 .. 20

    19 .traecy1 ...........47..36..33 ... 116 ... 38.7 .. 21
    19 .Tae laidir .........41..44..31 ... 116 ... 38.7 .. 21
    21 .Hammer Archer .52..41..22 ... 115 ... 38.3 .. 23
    22 .okla ................57..21..31 ... 109 ... 36.3 .. 26
    22 .Wild Bill ...........48..29..32 ... 109 ... 36.3 .. 26
    24 .SeaFields ........33..15..57 ... 105 ... 35.0 .. 29
    25 .homolumo .......48..25..24 ... 097 ... 32.3 .. 32
    26 .M.T. Cranium ...34..41..21 ... 096 ... 32.0 .. 33
    27 .Harps .............51..25..18 ... 094 ... 31.3 .. 34
    28 .dasa29 ...........44..30..16 ... 090 ... 30.0 .. 35
    29 .talkabout ........42..26..20 ... 088 ... 29.3 .. 37
    30 .fizzycyst .........47..37..-- ... 084 ... 42.0 .. 15
    31. jambofc ..........26..34..22 ... 082 ... 27.3 .. 38
    32 .dacogawa .......50..14..17 ... 081 ... 27.0 .. 39
    33 .DOCARCH ........20..27..32 ... 079 ... 26.3 .. 40
    34 .Iancar29 .........33..19..26 ... 078 ... 26.0 .. 41
    35 .NIALL D ..........29..20..28 ... 077 ... 25.7 .. 42
    36 .MiNdGaM3 .......33..11..31 ... 075 ... 25.0 .. 43
    36 .snowstreams ...37..10..28 ... 075 ... 25.0 .. 43
    38 .hellboy99 ........56..17..-- ... 073 ... 36.5 .. 25
    39 .Strasser .........--..20..52 ... 072 ... 36.0 .. 28
    40 .Joe Public .......42..21..08 ... 071 ... 23.7 .. 46
    41 .alfa beta ........--..34..34 ... 068 ... 34.0 .. 30
    41 .danno ............48..20..-- ... 068 ... 34.0 .. 30
    43 .Deep Easterly ..--..38..22 ... 060 ... 30.0 .. 35
    44 .redsunset .......34..11..12 ... 057 ... 19.0 .. 47
    45 .Gonzo ............--..--..55 ... 055 ... 55.0 .. 1
    46 .Rebelbrowser ...--..14..36 ... 050 ... 25.0 .. 43
    47 .lostinashford ...--..--.. 37 ... 037 ... 37.0 .. 24
    ____________________________________

    Check your scores, I am going back over the missing scores of regulars to make sure I haven't missed any ... if you entered as a different username let me know by PM ... your rank is at present based on total score but you'll get a better idea where you really stand in the annual contest by checking your rank for average (last entry) if you've missed a month or two.


  • Registered Users Posts: 721 ✭✭✭lostinashford


    Thanks MT and well down to K1:D


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    I do not believe it! :mad:

    Umpire, I cannot possibly be behind Con Sensus.

    Do you need glasses?
    :confused:


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,112 ✭✭✭rameire


    Can we finish now.
    I'd like to thank my mum, my daughter, my wife, my dog, my dad, my family and so on and so forth, I reckoned I would be near fourth, but joint first, woo.

    Cheers M.T. For all your hard work.

    🌞 3.8kwp, 🌞 Split 2.28S, 1.52E. 🌞 Clonee, Dub.🌞



  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    I wish I could have one above average month...just one. :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,777 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    I had to dig deep for something to keep me going and I think I have it;)

    Matthew 20:16 "So the last will be first, and the first will be last."


  • Registered Users Posts: 763 ✭✭✭H2UMrsRobinson


    I've never been joined (joint?) first in anything with more than 2 entrants before and it's all down to pure dumb luck (special mention to my arse from whence numbers were plucked) 'twas a bold start but my luck won't hold believe me.

    Cheers MT !


  • Advertisement
  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    I've never been joined (joint?) first in anything with more than 2 entrants before and it's all down to pure dumb luck (special mention to my arse from whence numbers were plucked) 'twas a bold start but my luck won't hold believe me.

    Gawd I hate this false modesty lark :rolleyes:

    Tell it like it is:

    "I won 'cos I'm the best - I told ye what the weather would be but ye didn't listen. Thicker than s**** pleated yis all are. Suckers :p:p
    Fondly Yours
    Mrs Robinson"


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 326 ✭✭K_1


    One good result from 3 . . .I think my record shows this up as a fluke!


Advertisement