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Grand National 2012

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 19,351 ✭✭✭✭Harry Angstrom


    ronan1986 wrote: »
    Any Love for Rare Bob in here.

    40/1.

    Decent e/w bet?

    Sean Boyce on ATR fancies him, for what it's worth.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,013 ✭✭✭Hulk Hands


    Two for me at this stage.

    Black Apalachi @ 40/1 e/w. With a bit of luck, this horse could be a dual national winner. Fell at the 4th last when having them all strung out, and he only found the speedy Don't Push It and a demented McCoy too good a year later. He was then off the track for the guts of 2 years before running well when second to ex national favourite Prince du Beachaine. He will be out in front and out of trouble, and despite a couple of falls, jumps well. He seems to love Aintree and I think he should run well at a big price.

    Chicago Grey @ 16/1 e/w. This horse has a good chance. He has proved himself classy enough to win the 4 miler at Cheltenham and is reported to be in good form. His problem will be staying out of trouble as he rarely races prominent. He also throws in the odd sketchy jump. However, to counteract those, he has the best man in the saddle in Paul Carberry. I trust Carberry to present him right at every fence and have enough guile to steer clear of trouble. He also jumped well when schooled over national fences. The horse stays all day and should be bang there barring errors. The owners are shrewd punters and are quietly confident


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,330 ✭✭✭Morgans


    Think it was at Bechers when Black Apalachi fell. Backed him that year and was gutted. Thought he was going like the winner. Gutted for the horse that he went so close again. I think its a year too late this year for him. Would love to see him win though.

    There is something I dont like about Chicago Grey. Im not sure what it is. Won well at cheltenham last year but was so miserably bad at Ayr and then again I was expecting better at Wetherby at the start of the year. This was the plan all along and it might be that he has a proper going day this weekend, but I find the horse unreliable. Carberry is a genius on the type of horse, but I think he is a horse that things need to fall right for and Im not sure that the National is his race. He is one of the shorter priced ones that I'm happy to avoid.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    Latest Timeform ratings:
    SUNNYHILLBOY (IRE) 181
    GILES CROSS (IRE) 179
    CAPPA BLEU (IRE) 179
    JUNIOR 178
    NEPTUNE COLLONGES (FR) 178
    SYNCHRONISED (IRE) 178
    BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE (IRE) 177
    KILLYGLEN (IRE) 177
    BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 177
    WEIRD AL (IRE) 177

    http://betting.betfair.ie/irish-racing/horse-racing-systems/horse-racing-tips/timeform-ratings-on-the-grand-national-110412.html

    1 French and 1 British bred horse in the top 10....the rest Irish


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,244 ✭✭✭Juwwi


    If theres any soft in the going I'll be looking at around 11st 3 or under.
    I have a feeling there will be a big priced winner this year.

    What would put me off Chicago Grey is he will be ridden patiently which
    is a negative in this race with the amount of fallers he will have to avoid.
    Also hes never jumped a National fence.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,013 ✭✭✭Hulk Hands


    Morgans wrote: »
    Think it was at Bechers when Black Apalachi fell. Backed him that year and was gutted. Thought he was going like the winner. Gutted for the horse that he went so close again. I think its a year too late this year for him. Would love to see him win though.

    There is something I dont like about Chicago Grey. Im not sure what it is. Won well at cheltenham last year but was so miserably bad at Ayr and then again I was expecting better at Wetherby at the start of the year. This was the plan all along and it might be that he has a proper going day this weekend, but I find the horse unreliable. Carberry is a genius on the type of horse, but I think he is a horse that things need to fall right for and Im not sure that the National is his race. He is one of the shorter priced ones that I'm happy to avoid.

    Black Apalachi is my own thinking, but I have mainly been steered onto Chicago Grey from connections. In fairness to them, everytime they have been confident he has gone well and other times we have been told that confidence wasn't so high, he has ran stinkers. Don't take this as a tip as it isn't, but connections are confident that if he jumps around and has a bit of luck, he'll go very close. He schooled well over national fences last week


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,330 ✭✭✭Morgans


    Hulk Hands wrote: »
    Black Apalachi is my own thinking, but I have mainly been steered onto Chicago Grey from connections. In fairness to them, everytime they have been confident he has gone well and other times we have been told that confidence wasn't so high, he has ran stinkers. Don't take this as a tip as it isn't, but connections are confident that if he jumps around and has a bit of luck, he'll go very close. He schooled well over national fences last week

    Good to know. He did me out of a lot when he beat Mourad at Thurles in a hurdle. Had 7/4 about the forecast the other way round. Maybe that's when it started. I like his style of racing and Carberry can pick his way around better than anyone. With the grand national though, they can get very detatched early. I just have a line through him. If he wins, it will have to be a case of hands up I got that wrong.

    Same goes for Junior, West End Rocker, Giles Cross, Cappa Bleu and Shakalakaboomboom of those less than 20/1.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,033 ✭✭✭ForeverYoung90


    Morgans wrote: »
    Good to know. He did me out of a lot when he beat Mourad at Thurles in a hurdle. Had 7/4 about the forecast the other way round. Maybe that's when it started. I like his style of racing and Carberry can pick his way around better than anyone. With the grand national though, they can get very detatched early. I just have a line through him. If he wins, it will have to be a case of hands up I got that wrong.

    Same goes for Junior, West End Rocker, Giles Cross, Cappa Bleu and Shakalakaboomboom of those less than 20/1.
    Who are you on so Morgans?You seem to be giving the negatives to others peoples tips so wondering whats your view?Im one of those that will be on Chigago Grey anyway, just sorry now I didnt back him at 25s few weeks ago as his down to 12s now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,330 ✭✭✭Morgans


    I don't have any very strong positive view about the race, but I've posted my thoughts yesterday on the race. Organisedconfusion and Killyglen would be the two I'd want on my side. Can see sound arguments to be made for several more. The arguement for Sychronised is obvious and arguement for Always Waining very interesting.


  • Registered Users Posts: 55 ✭✭Rhinestone Cowboy


    Bookies obviously out to make money but those who wait to Saturday to bet are getting the worst of it. McCririck talking sense here
    The tipster advised punters to get up early on Saturday if they want the best odds. “Take a price in the morning,” he said. “Last year 39 of the 40 horses started at shorter prices than when they were advertised top price in the morning, so take a price

    Also hammer their free bets or suspend them altogether this week. If you are after free bets better doing it the day before (or 1:00 today where PP are concerned). More about it on the fat jockey Grand Nation Free Bets thread...offers getting slashed and suspended all week.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,330 ✭✭✭Morgans


    The more I look at the race the Sunnyhillboy has to be on the short list.

    Timeform tops as well is interesting.

    The one thing that I steer clear of in Nationals are out and out stayers. (unless its a bog and even then) Horses that contest the long distance handicaps throughout the year and who proverbially stay longer than the mother in law are usually too slow to win the national.

    I think you need the speed to win races at 3m or less to win the national and I LOVE horses that power up the Cheltenham hill for the race. I think it shows the attributes that you need - ability to keep in touch off a strong pace and stamina to follow through with the effort when the pressure comes on.

    The Kim Muir (even the Byrne Group Plate) are good guides for me. The Thyestes is another - strong pace usually with stamina needed in usual soft ground on a big track. I wouldnt turn anyone against On His Own. But the way Sunnyhillboy came up the hill is hard to forget.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    My 2 cents for what its worth.

    I fancy Ballabriggs to win again this year. In what looks a weaker race (GC winner aside) Horses like Killyglen that was 66/1 last year is only 14/1 now. I know he was going ok when he fell but that means next to nothing in this race of all races. Balla I think he has a great chance.McCain has said he's in better form than last year. Good enough for me.

    Organisedconfusion is the other I like. Ticks all the right boxes, ground, stamina, jockey,experience in huge fields. Really can't see him being unplaced.

    One for the girlfriend to throw her few bob ew on is Black Apalachi. Been here a few times, bound to set off in front so she'll have a few shouts at the tv after each fence. Probably worth the bleeding eardrums !!


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,330 ✭✭✭Morgans


    Ballabriggs has to have a chance.

    Id disagree on the quality of this years national. I think its maybe the best I can remember qualitywise.

    Definitely over the last decade, it became the last chance saloon for horses that were handicapped out of winning standard races, so you had a dozen horses each year that were in it cos they had no where else to go, with owners hoping that Aintree would spark something back in their horse. There were a lot of 100/1 shots which could have been 200/1, and a lot of 40/1 horses that should have been 100/1.

    There are very few in this years race that have no chance at all. A handful maybe.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,783 ✭✭✭Pj!


    Le Beau Bai and Always Waining out


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    Always Waining and Le Beau Bai not Declared for the race!

    Hello Bud and Neptune Equester are in.


  • Users Awaiting Email Confirmation Posts: 492 ✭✭thebison


    I think you need a 9/10 year old that has won a Grade 1 race and a chase over at least 3 miles, is carrying between 10st 9lb and 11st 5lb and is running with 49 days.Rare Bob fits the bill and his trainer certainly knows how to ready them for this race. 40/1 is a ridiculous price. Setantabet are paying 6 places so happy days.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    Had an early season punt on Any Currency and he misses the race unless he's a reserve until Saturday morning (?).

    Current bets are
    1) Killyglen 7pts @ 40/1
    2) Sunnyhillboy 3.5pts @ 54.1/1
    3) Neptune Collonges 1pt @ 40/1
    4) Midnight Haze 1pt @ 309/1, 1.5pts @ 37/1 (place)
    5) Any Currency 3pts @ 66/1
    6) Western Charmer 2pts @ 40/1

    Have Any Currency in the Bet365 so chance of getting that back.
    Forgot about Western Charmer. #honestjoe


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,330 ✭✭✭Morgans


    that is a nice looking 'portfolio' Nulty.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    You know horses Morgan, theres still plenty enough time for them to sabotage their chance.

    #horsesaresuicidal


  • Registered Users Posts: 103 ✭✭ronan1986


    thebison wrote: »
    I think you need a 9/10 year old that has won a Grade 1 race and a chase over at least 3 miles, is carrying between 10st 9lb and 11st 5lb and is running with 49 days.Rare Bob fits the bill and his trainer certainly knows how to ready them for this race. 40/1 is a ridiculous price. Setantabet are paying 6 places so happy days.

    I think we are on the same wavelength.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 187 ✭✭Rastapitts


    Becauseicouldntsee must have a big chance if a lot of people fancy sunnyhillboy. wasnt much btw them at cheltenham


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    Rastapitts wrote: »
    Becauseicouldntsee must have a big chance if a lot of people fancy sunnyhillboy. wasnt much btw them at cheltenham

    Yeah, but if they run to form SHB gives him no chance. He's still capable of winning though. I backed him last year when he fell at the 2nd/3rd


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    I'm struggling to find a bet this year.

    The one thing in Chicago Grey's favour IMO is his jockey. I'm a huge fan if Carberry over the national fences. His ride on King John's Castle will stick in the mind for a long time


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,410 ✭✭✭finbarrk


    I have €50ew on Organisedconfusion at 33/1 and the same on Becauseicouldntsee at 25/1. Might have €25ew on Chicago Grey on the day.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,536 ✭✭✭AngryBollix


    Have sunnyhillboy at 22\1 e\w

    Will probably take the 8\1 later tonight on sunchronised


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    Planet of Sound and Vic Venturi are starting to come into my mind at big prices.. Planet of Sound particulary look forgotten about in this race..


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,545 ✭✭✭chinguetti


    Sunnyhillboy and Alfa Beat for me.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,172 ✭✭✭NaiveMelodies


    Treacle for me, Can't help but feel he could have been alot closer to Quel Esprit LTO, and the ride was engineered to put him on a nice mark for this.
    Not sure if he'll get the 4 mile 4, but thats the gamble.
    State of Play, getting on now, but a great place bet proposition all the same, sure to get around anyway and give you a run for your money.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,013 ✭✭✭Hulk Hands


    Victor Chandler (or whatever theyre calling themselves now), are going e/w 6 places. Good concession to be fair and they're prices are reasonably competitive


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,013 ✭✭✭Hulk Hands


    only1stevo wrote: »
    Treacle for me, Can't help but feel he could have been alot closer to Quel Esprit LTO, and the ride was engineered to put him on a nice mark for this.
    Not sure if he'll get the 4 mile 4, but thats the gamble.
    State of Play, getting on now, but a great place bet proposition all the same, sure to get around anyway and give you a run for your money.

    Watched last years race and state of play came from another parish to fly home and grab 4th. Placed in the last 3 nationals, i think he's a decent e/w bet at 50's


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