MTC Summer Forecast -- some hope for improvement

M.T. Cranium · 25-05-2013 6:39am #1

I had promised to issue a long-range forecast for the summer of 2013 in mid-May and here are the results of my research combined with a rather subjective look at the implications of the recent trends in this very cool spring season.

In general, I believe there will be considerable improvement of the weather pattern ahead, and some chance of prolonged warm, dry spells. At the very least, I think this will be one of the better summer seasons in recent years, and there's some chance of it being an exceptional summer.

I have to respect the strength of the recent cold signal, which although not overly wet has maintained rainfalls at normal values which makes the season seem rather wet since the combination has led to reduced "evapo-transpiration." This signal may not just disappear on the first or even second instance of more settled weather under higher pressures. It may even try to dig in and fight back. So I want to temper the outlook by saying most likely a combination of warm, dry spells and cooler, unsettled spells, although I could see theoretically how the warm, dry signal could lock in and repel any returns to cool, unsettled weather for more than a few days here and there.

No particular timing was suggested by the research, which shows a general trend to above normal temperatures from June to August and into parts of September, so more or less the entire summer season.

Since we have this situation of signals for above normal temperatures but a lingering trace of the long-wave trough, it might be expected that rainfall, even if it averages below normal, could include one or two heavy falls in brief episodes of severe storm activity. This would be more likely in the inland northern half of the country. Drought is also possible given the strength of the warm signal at the foundation of this forecast, and that would be most likely to develop in the southern third and possibly around Dublin.

Anyway, that's the outlook, I hope that the actual results are not too far removed from this warm, sunny and relatively dry prediction. Just to place some numbers for later verification, I will say that June, July and August will each average 1.2 degrees above long-term normals, rainfall will be 70 to 90 per cent of normal, and sunshine will be 10-30 per cent above normal values.

The Browser · 25-05-2013 7:59am

In Dubai now. Travelling to Ireland on 31 May for two weeks for my wedding (7 June) and some general vacation time. My fiancé is from the Philippines and has never experienced a temperate climate.

Any outlook for the first two weeks of June?

Bandito909 · 25-05-2013 8:00am

You the man MT.

Just what we've been wanting to hear.

slowburner · 25-05-2013 8:02am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I have to respect the strength of the recent cold signal, which although not overly wet has maintained rainfalls at normal values which makes the season seem rather wet since the combination has led to reduced "evapo-transpiration."

It's been more like a drought here in recent weeks.
I can tell you that many plants are struggling for water and I have never seen ploughed fields so dry at this time of year.
Driving on boreens and the like, throws up dust clouds behind.

Rikand · 25-05-2013 9:17am

The Browser wrote: »

In Dubai now. Travelling to Ireland on 31 May for two weeks for my wedding (7 June) and some general vacation time. My fiancé is from the Philippines and has never experienced a temperate climate.

Any outlook for the first two weeks of June?

its a long way to go - but you never know.... early report is for warmth

jArgHA · 25-05-2013 9:28am

Thanks a million MT, I had been looking forward to your Summer forecast and it's better than I could have hoped for

Fingers crossed that it turns out as predicted!

Bejubby · 25-05-2013 9:28am

Hopfully it will happen.
the past few days here in the south east have been nice and sunny but still a moderate gusty wind,but il take that.
This morning is a cracker of a day with blue skys and a gentle breeze.
Anyway off to work now!

gurramok · 25-05-2013 7:00pm

If it happens, we bloody earned it! Sick of suffering from below normal cold temps going back as far as October!

M.T. Cranium · 26-05-2013 12:07am

I agree, you've earned the right to a wonderful summer and I hope it's at least better than most of the past five or six. But you know me by now, if I sensed it was going to be awful I wouldn't hold back. Maybe I should predict awful weather to give you a fighting chance.

event · 26-05-2013 12:45am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I had promised to issue a long-range forecast for the summer of 2013 in mid-May and here are the results of my research combined with a rather subjective look at the implications of the recent trends in this very cool spring season.

In general, I believe there will be considerable improvement of the weather pattern ahead, and some chance of prolonged warm, dry spells. At the very least, I think this will be one of the better summer seasons in recent years, and there's some chance of it being an exceptional summer.

I have to respect the strength of the recent cold signal, which although not overly wet has maintained rainfalls at normal values which makes the season seem rather wet since the combination has led to reduced "evapo-transpiration." This signal may not just disappear on the first or even second instance of more settled weather under higher pressures. It may even try to dig in and fight back. So I want to temper the outlook by saying most likely a combination of warm, dry spells and cooler, unsettled spells, although I could see theoretically how the warm, dry signal could lock in and repel any returns to cool, unsettled weather for more than a few days here and there.

No particular timing was suggested by the research, which shows a general trend to above normal temperatures from June to August and into parts of September, so more or less the entire summer season.

Since we have this situation of signals for above normal temperatures but a lingering trace of the long-wave trough, it might be expected that rainfall, even if it averages below normal, could include one or two heavy falls in brief episodes of severe storm activity. This would be more likely in the inland northern half of the country. Drought is also possible given the strength of the warm signal at the foundation of this forecast, and that would be most likely to develop in the southern third and possibly around Dublin.

Anyway, that's the outlook, I hope that the actual results are not too far removed from this warm, sunny and relatively dry prediction. Just to place some numbers for later verification, I will say that June, July and August will each average 1.2 degrees above long-term normals, rainfall will be 70 to 90 per cent of normal, and sunshine will be 10-30 per cent above normal values.

So you reckon it'll be warmer in the summer months, with a chance of some cooler periods?

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images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR9RxJyHzWhKOKDb4Su_9ycZ77-OQrCkHc3gisQbpzRkWX92UJ8gQ

vincentdunne · 26-05-2013 12:57am

Well, today was warm and fine. So if we just copy and paste for the rest of the summer, then we are sorted. This is about as useful as the above generalised twaddle.

flutered · 26-05-2013 1:03am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I had promised to issue a long-range forecast for the summer of 2013 in mid-May and here are the results of my research combined with a rather subjective look at the implications of the recent trends in this very cool spring season.

In general, I believe there will be considerable improvement of the weather pattern ahead, and some chance of prolonged warm, dry spells. At the very least, I think this will be one of the better summer seasons in recent years, and there's some chance of it being an exceptional summer.

I have to respect the strength of the recent cold signal, which although not overly wet has maintained rainfalls at normal values which makes the season seem rather wet since the combination has led to reduced "evapo-transpiration." This signal may not just disappear on the first or even second instance of more settled weather under higher pressures. It may even try to dig in and fight back. So I want to temper the outlook by saying most likely a combination of warm, dry spells and cooler, unsettled spells, although I could see theoretically how the warm, dry signal could lock in and repel any returns to cool, unsettled weather for more than a few days here and there.

No particular timing was suggested by the research, which shows a general trend to above normal temperatures from June to August and into parts of September, so more or less the entire summer season.

Since we have this situation of signals for above normal temperatures but a lingering trace of the long-wave trough, it might be expected that rainfall, even if it averages below normal, could include one or two heavy falls in brief episodes of severe storm activity. This would be more likely in the inland northern half of the country. Drought is also possible given the strength of the warm signal at the foundation of this forecast, and that would be most likely to develop in the southern third and possibly around Dublin.

Anyway, that's the outlook, I hope that the actual results are not too far removed from this warm, sunny and relatively dry prediction. Just to place some numbers for later verification, I will say that June, July and August will each average 1.2 degrees above long-term normals, rainfall will be 70 to 90 per cent of normal, and sunshine will be 10-30 per cent above normal values.

actually i wont say what i was going to say, even tho i have a bottle of black bush inside me.

otto_26 · 26-05-2013 4:40pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I had promised to issue a long-range forecast for the summer of 2013 in mid-May and here are the results of my research combined with a rather subjective look at the implications of the recent trends in this very cool spring season.

In general, I believe there will be considerable improvement of the weather pattern ahead, and some chance of prolonged warm, dry spells. At the very least, I think this will be one of the better summer seasons in recent years, and there's some chance of it being an exceptional summer.

I have to respect the strength of the recent cold signal, which although not overly wet has maintained rainfalls at normal values which makes the season seem rather wet since the combination has led to reduced "evapo-transpiration." This signal may not just disappear on the first or even second instance of more settled weather under higher pressures. It may even try to dig in and fight back. So I want to temper the outlook by saying most likely a combination of warm, dry spells and cooler, unsettled spells, although I could see theoretically how the warm, dry signal could lock in and repel any returns to cool, unsettled weather for more than a few days here and there.

No particular timing was suggested by the research, which shows a general trend to above normal temperatures from June to August and into parts of September, so more or less the entire summer season.

Since we have this situation of signals for above normal temperatures but a lingering trace of the long-wave trough, it might be expected that rainfall, even if it averages below normal, could include one or two heavy falls in brief episodes of severe storm activity. This would be more likely in the inland northern half of the country. Drought is also possible given the strength of the warm signal at the foundation of this forecast, and that would be most likely to develop in the southern third and possibly around Dublin.

Anyway, that's the outlook, I hope that the actual results are not too far removed from this warm, sunny and relatively dry prediction. Just to place some numbers for later verification, I will say that June, July and August will each average 1.2 degrees above long-term normals, rainfall will be 70 to 90 per cent of normal, and sunshine will be 10-30 per cent above normal values.

In summary what your saying is:

The summer might be hot or cold
And it might be wet or dry.

Daisy M · 26-05-2013 5:47pm

otto_26 wrote: »

In summary what your saying is:

The summer might be hot or cold
And it might be wet or dry.

I thought it was obvious from the forecast that a period of warm dry weather is foreseen this maybe interspersed by a few days of colder, wet weather.

emo72 · 26-05-2013 6:20pm

is this the comedy forum? bunch of comedians in here. the positive thing from MTs forecast is that it looks greatly improved from previous summers. im happy with it.

Daisy M · 26-05-2013 6:33pm

emo72 wrote: »

is this the comedy forum? bunch of comedians in here. the positive thing from MTs forecast is that it looks greatly improved from previous summers. im happy with it.

Is this aimed at me? I wasn't been funny by any means, I was trying to clarify that I understood the forecast to be a mainly dry summer with a couple of days here and there that will be colder and wet. I responded to ottos post which I thought was unjustifiably critical.

emo72 · 26-05-2013 7:47pm

Daisy M wrote: »

Is this aimed at me? I wasn't been funny by any means, I was trying to clarify that I understood the forecast to be a mainly dry summer with a couple of days here and there that will be colder and wet. I responded to ottos post which I thought was unjustifiably critical.

no, not at all aimed at you. to be fair some of the responses were funny if not a little sarky. but the the guy puts a lot of effort into giving us really accurate forecasts all year round and i have found him to be very accurate and i love the way he gives us explanations for why he is predicting certain outcomes.

and lets be a little bit happier that he is giving us a decent forecast for the summer:)

zidewayz · 26-05-2013 8:23pm

emo72 wrote: »

no, not at all aimed at you. to be fair some of the responses were funny if not a little sarky. but the the guy puts a lot of effort into giving us really accurate forecasts all year round and i have found him to be very accurate and i love the way he gives us explanations for why he is predicting certain outcomes.

and lets be a little bit happier that he is giving us a decent forecast for the summer:)

Here here..

Great summer forecast from MT which if it to go by his past forecasts offers us good hope for a good summer. Keep up the good work MT.

His summary at the end hits the spot. Above average temps.. below average rain.. Above average sunshine. If all these combine it makes all the difference for a lovely summer. Fingers crossed!

dsmythy · 26-05-2013 9:03pm

I know it can give off a cover all bases look but from what I gather from the forecast is it will be like a typical Irish summer but that the warm dry periods will last longer and be deeper compared to the past 7 years or so. Best way to describe it.

Lemon meringue · 26-05-2013 10:53pm

Yes I think it is a very straight forecast for a decent summer.
If the summer turns out to be generally cold and damp like the previous six then it will be proven in accurate.
In fairness to put your head out and predict a good summer in this country is a brave move.

M.T. Cranium · 26-05-2013 11:55pm

Yep, I think the more regular readers have it figured out, my intention was not to hedge my bets, I am predicting more frequent warmth, sunshine and dry spells than average, but that does not rule out some cooler unsettled spells of course, it would be a rare summer that avoided those entirely. We have a summer forecast contest thread if anyone wants to register their guess.

Jpmarn · 27-05-2013 8:22am

The last 6 summers have been below par if not downright bad. There is quite a few predictions around that 2013 will buck the trend. Will it beat 1995? We'll see how it turns out. Fingers crossed.

giannip · 27-05-2013 2:22pm

Firstly I have no clue about meteorology but I'm forever hearing the TV presenters saying that their models break down after 10 days, so they can be sure what will happens thereafter.

Is this a different type of model you use or how can you predict the above ?

flutered · 27-05-2013 2:33pm

we are in for a perion of unsettled weather, unfortunatly.

pauldry · 27-05-2013 9:37pm

flutered wrote: »

we are in for a perion of unsettled weather, unfortunatly.

Yes it has lasted 6 years so far

I think July will be a great month weatherwise

strandsman · 28-05-2013 11:05am

pauldry wrote: »

Yes it has lasted 6 years so far

I think July will be a great month weatherwise

it better be good in July, I going up west on holidays then!!!!:p

Calibos · 28-05-2013 3:03pm

Well at the very least, the Leaving Cert High pressure looks to link with the Junior Cert High over Scandi second week of June bringing decent temps and sunshine, so at least that annual weather event is right on schedule....

flutered · 28-05-2013 3:09pm

at least if may is not fine we get a chance of a good summer, every time we get a fine 7-10 days in may it snaffeles the fine summer weather.

M.T. Cranium · 29-05-2013 11:57pm

giannip wrote: »

Firstly I have no clue about meteorology but I'm forever hearing the TV presenters saying that their models break down after 10 days, so they can be sure what will happens thereafter.

Is this a different type of model you use or how can you predict the above ?

This is a statistical model rather than an operational or dynamic model and you would expect that its verification rates would be lower than operational models in their own better time frames (to be fair, 3-10 days). However, the research has been going fairly well and I am hopeful that this forecast will work out generally, keeping in mind that I am looking for trends not some sort of knockout blow where every day is a beach day and it never rains (and that would not be all that great for the country anyway, as much as it might sound ideal). We're already seeing some signs of this pattern trying to develop, the first half of June to my mind is not really as much summer as end of spring, and the first half of September belongs more to summer than autumn, but whatever, we'll be able to look back at some point and assess this forecast.

At some point if a statistical model began to produce reliable results then it could be turned into the extension of the existing technology for what I would call medium-range forecasting (but is often called long-range forecasting, that is the 3-10 day interval). The GFS proves on a fairly regular basis that the dynamic approach to 11-16 days is nowhere near the standard expected for medium-range, so my approach already has some chance of being useful as an extension of what currently exists.

otto_26 · 01-06-2013 11:38pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I am predicting more frequent warmth, sunshine and dry spells than average, but that does not rule out some cooler unsettled spells of course.

So in summary the above says:

We are going to get a warm summer with dry spells
BUT could get a cold and wet summer also!!!!

How does one get a job in your line of work? think I would be good at it!!!

kingshankly · 02-06-2013 12:03am

otto_26 wrote: »

So in summary the above says:

We are going to get a warm summer with dry spells
BUT could get a cold and wet summer also!!!!

How does one get a job in your line of work? think I would be good at it!!!

Well there's a forecasting thread you can try your hand in there and we will see if your good at it or not

MTC Summer Forecast -- some hope for improvement

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