Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Friday, 10 August, 2012
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Patchy morning cloud or mist, then hazy sunshine for most places, very warm or hot with highs 23 to 27 C. East coast slightly cooler near the shore, south coast may stay in the low cloud and fog much of the morning but could clear at times to warmer sunshine later, highs 19-22 C. Some high cloud will be dimming the sun at times in the afternoon in west, but strong sunshine in many parts could burn in 20-30 mins without protection.
TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals, especially over higher terrain, low cloud and drizzle may spread inland across south with light rain in parts of Kerry, Cork, Waterford (trace to 2 mms). Lows about 12 C on average. Moderate southeast winds developing in southern counties, rain spreading slowly towards southeast counties by early morning hours.
SATURDAY ... Somewhat cooler especially in south and southwest, outbreaks of light rain in west Munster, slight risk of thunderstorms developing west-central to southeast along a slowly advancing (to northeast) front. Rainfalls of 5-10 mms in some parts of Munster, south Leinster. Continued rather warm in Ulster, east Connacht and north Leinster, with highs 22-25 C in north, 18-22 C central, but only 15-17 C south and southwest.
SATURDAY NIGHT may also have some clear intervals with lows 8-11 C in eastern and northern counties as the push of cooler air may become quite weak, the front could begin to dissipate before redeveloping on Sunday. In general, I would say the chances of clear skies are about 60% on Friday night and 40% on Saturday night in the region near Dublin where observers might be most interested in viewing the Perseids. Sunday night is more likely to be extensively overcast.
SUNDAY ... Becoming mostly cloudy, extensive showers or thunderstorms possible, although there may be some places with warm sunshine also. Winds having backed into the southeast may now begin to return to southerly, highs around 21 C in some places, 15-17 C closer to south and west coasts.
MONDAY to WEDNESDAY ... Showery with some intervals of heavier rain possible, also a risk of strong SW winds developing with a small but intense low indicated on some model charts moving north to northeast across western counties around Tuesday. Temperatures will remain rather mild especially at night (typically lows near 12 C and highs near 17 C).
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The longer term looks relatively warm again, and it's possible that all periods will turn out a bit warmer as the push of cool Atlantic air may be rather weak this time. However, I still think that there is also some chance of a full return to the drab conditions of mid-July. Have seen a few charts in about two weeks that look warm to hot again, so perhaps this month will be a departure from recent years after all.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... I should have mentioned fast moving bolts for Thursday but today is likely to be hot in most places, with any morning cloud or mist rapidly giving way to almost clear skies, just the usual slight cooling near some coasts and in the far north. For almost all other locations in Britain, expect highs 27-32 C and light winds. Some east coast fog and highs 20-23 C.
TONIGHT ... Hazy, becoming misty or foggy and close, lows 15-18 C. This will trend to cooler, clear conditions in parts of the inland north with lows 8-12 C in some valleys. Dense fog could develop especially close to east coast.
SATURDAY ... Increasing cloud west, some late showers or isolated thunderstorms, highs 23-27 C. Sunny again in the east until quite late afternoon or evening, hot with highs 27-30 C. Isolated heavy or severe evening thunderstorms may move north from France. (by the way Friday-Saturday in northern France could reach 35 C).
OUTLOOK ... Staying hot over the weekend in southeast England, showery further west with some heavy thunderstorms developing by Sunday in areas like Bristol and Bournemouth, Salisbury plain, Thames valley; turning a bit cooler especially west of London to Nottingham, but much of next week could stay a little warmer than average with highs 22-24 C. Heavy rains likely at times in Wales and Scotland, northern England mid-week.
North American forecasts
Heavy rainfalls continuing in parts of the lower Great Lakes and inland northeast, 30-60 mms could be recorded in places. Fairly dry in central regions with seasonably warm temperatures, trending to hot further west. Scattered but isolated thunderstorms over Rockies and parts of western Canada. Very hot in the southwest trending to near normal in coastal California due to strong sea breezes. Ernesto will slowly die over Mexico while dropping torrential rains. "Gordon" could form later today or Saturday near Cape Verde, heading for the Caribbean in 4-5 days. Florence came and went without doing much, a remnant low is north of Puerto Rico.
MTC's LOCAL WEATHER (Thursday) was sunny and warm, highs near 23 C. About the same as Galway as it turned out.