[M.T. Cranium]

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 26 July, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... The warmer weather will hold on in most regions, although it will begin to turn cooler in the northwest this afternoon. Mostly cloudy in the west this morning, some hazy sunshine except where sea fog or low cloud drifts inland east and south. Warmest mid-day in Midlands and inland south, with highs there 19-22 C. Highs around coastal districts and in the north around 17-19 C. One or two showers likely by late afternoon or evening, only 1-3 mms at most, as winds pick up from west to northwest at 15-30 mph after mostly light and variable winds most of the day.

TONIGHT ... Fresher with west to northwest breezes 15-25 mph, isolated showers mostly in north, lows 8-11 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy and considerably cooler with passing showers, sunny intervals. Winds NW to N 20-30 mph, afternoon highs about 15 C north to 18 C south. Rainfalls generally slight but could amount to 3-5 mms in parts of Ulster especially near the Antrim coast.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy and cool, lows 6-10 C and highs 15-18 C, passing showers mainly western and northern counties. Rainfalls slight for most, 1-3 mms on average, possibly 5-8 mms in parts of Ulster. Winds NW 20-35 mph. Some sunshine at times in south, likely to be overcast further north.

SUNDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, cool, showers may become longer intervals of rain in parts of Ulster, north Connacht. Lows 7-10 C and highs about 15-17 C. Less risk of rain in south, amounts likely to vary from 10-15 mms north to 0-3 mms south.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with periods of rain, highs near 15 C, chilly -- could be somewhat better in north as rain will be heavier near south coast.

OUTLOOK for NEXT WEEK ... Slightly unsettled but after the Monday rainfall there may be some dry intervals and temperatures should return almost to normal late July or early August values.

Forecasts for U.K.

TODAY & TONIGHT ... Some warm sunshine may continue in the south but increasing cloud will push through Wales and the Midlands, where it will stay rather warm today. Highs in the south 26-29 C and Wales-Midlands about 23 to 25 C. Cloudy in the north of England and southern Scotland with a few intervals of light rain developing later, turning cooler late in the day with highs about 19-21 C. Fresh and turning windy mid-day in central, western and northern Scotland, highs 14-17 C. Tonight will see this cooler air sinking further south with a few showers, mainly in western districts, and lows reaching about 8 C north to 11 C central. The warmer air will hold on in the southeast, as clouds increase; lows will only fall to 14-16 C.

OUTLOOK ... Friday warm in the southeast with scattered showers, one or two heavy thunderstorms possible even around the opening of the Olympics, moving across the Channel from France late afternoon and into London during the late afternoon and evening; highs near 24 C. Further west and north in south-central England, mostly cloudy, a few isolated showers, highs 21-23 C. Midlands and Wales cloudy with showers and highs 19-21 C on Friday, and cooler as you go further north until highs of only 13-16 C in Scotland. ...
... The weekend may stay largely dry in parts of southern England but will be wet in the north and especially in Scotland where it will be only about 15 C. The further outlook is for unsettled and rather cool weather early next week with a slight warming trend during the week, but only back to around 20-22 C at most.

Forecasts for North America

Heavy rainfalls in Michigan and southern Ontario today will end drought conditions in some places as rainfalls could reach 75-125 mms in a few places. Severe storms in a few locations nearby such as northern Ohio, western New York, Wisconsin and Illinois. Hot and humid central plains states with some highs reaching 40 C around Kansas and Missouri, heavy to severe storms further west and north along a slow-moving cold front. Hot and dry in the southwest, warm but dry in western regions and most of western Canada.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER (Vancouver, B.C.) ... Wednesday was sunny and reasonably warm with highs around 23 C.

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[M.T. Cranium]

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 27 July, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Breezy and considerably cooler with passing showers, more frequent in the north and northwest, and sunny intervals, more frequent in the east and south. Winds increasing later this morning to NW 20-30 mph, and afternoon highs about 15 C north to 18 C south. Rainfalls generally slight but could amount to 3-5 mms in parts of Ulster especially near the Antrim coast.

TONIGHT ... Frequent showers north, moderate NW winds and lows 7-9 C. Partly cloudy to overcast, isolated showers south, lows 6-8 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy and cool, with highs 15-18 C, passing showers more frequent and heavier in western and northern counties. Rainfalls slight for most, 1-3 mms on average, possibly 5-8 mms in parts of Ulster and Connacht. Some of the heavier showers are likely in the morning with a trough droppping southward. Winds NW 20-35 mph. Some sunshine at times in south, likely to be overcast further north.

SUNDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, cool, showers may become longer intervals of rain in parts of Ulster, north Connacht. Lows 7-10 C and highs about 15-17 C. Less risk of rain in south, amounts likely to vary from 10-15 mms north to 0-3 mms south.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with periods of rain, highs near 15 C, chilly -- could be somewhat better in north as rain will be heavier near south coast. Rain and fog may clear later in the day in the southwest as somewhat warmer air around 18 C moves slowly north.

OUTLOOK for NEXT WEEK ... Tuesday may see the rain continuing to drift further north with a gradual warming trend to follow; slightly unsettled later in the week, with the greatest threat of rain in western counties, temperatures should return almost to normal late July or early August values.

Forecasts for U.K.

TODAY & TONIGHT ... Friday warm and humid in the southeast with scattered showers, one or two heavy thunderstorms possible even around the opening of the Olympics, moving across the Channel from France during afternoon and moving into London during the late afternoon and evening; highs near 24 C. Further west and north in south-central England, mostly cloudy, a few isolated showers or brief thunderstorms, highs 21-23 C. Midlands and Wales cloudy with showers and highs 19-21 C, and cooler further north with highs of only 13-16 C in Scotland. ...

OUTLOOK ... The weekend may stay largely dry in parts of southern England but will be wet in the north and especially in Scotland where it will be only about 15 C. The further outlook is for unsettled and rather cool weather early next week with a slight warming trend during the week, but only back to around 20-22 C at most.

Forecasts for North America

Heavy showers and thunderstorms moving slowly south into the southeast states, followed by somewhat cooler weather moving in from the Great Lakes region where today likely to be partly cloudy with isolated showers, highs in the 24-27 C range. Still rather hot in the central plains states, seasonably warm across western Canada.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER (Vancouver, B.C.) ... Thursday was sunny and warm with a lot of haze and highs around 25 C.



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[M.T. Cranium]

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 28 July, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... A few blustery showers this morning, currently moving through central counties towards the south and east coasts, could produce a brief thunderstorm, but there will also be some sunny breaks, and a good variety of clouds for the festival, with a few more isolated showers developing later. Further rainfalls of about 2-4 mms likely in some areas. Highs 16-18 C and winds NW 15-30 mph with some higher gusts near showers.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few showers, lows 8-10 C, moderate NW winds in exposed locations.

SUNDAY ... Frequent showers and rather cool, winds NW 15-30 mph, highs about 16 C.

MONDAY ... Increasing cloud, some rain by afternoon or evening in western counties, a bit warmer especially for east coast, morning lows 7-10 C and afternoon highs 16-19 C.

TUESDAY ... Some rain at times, heavier west and north, 10-20 mms possible there, foggy over hills in Connacht and Ulster. Lows near 12 C and highs near 17 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Heavy showers and a risk of gusty winds developing in Connacht and Ulster, from SW to W at 20-40 mph (and possibly higher gusts in coastal locations). Somewhat better conditions for east and south coasts with a bit more sunshine in the mix there, highs about 17 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Continuing rather unsettled and perhaps a degree or two below normal in temperatures, with a faint prospect of warmer weather returning for a while in the following week.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY will be rather cloudy in most places although some sunshine at times in the Thames valley and West Midlands, also some scattered showers more frequent in Wales and northern England, trending to steady showery rain in western Scotland. Highs will be about 21-23 C in London and the southeast, 18 C Midlands and Wales, 16 C northern England and southern Scotland.

TONIGHT will see further showers, some heavy in western districts, and lows generally 7-10 C.

OUTLOOK is variable with some showers mostly western and northern districts almost each day and longer dry intervals with some sunshine despite a lot of cloud for the south and east. Highs all week likely to be in the cool to comfortable range of 17-20 C.

North American forecasts

The eastern half of the U.S. and southern Ontario will all be enjoying relatively warm and pleasant conditions with a few isolated showers, while the severe heat and drought continue to plague parts of the central plains and Midwest. Western Canada is going to see some heavy storms later today especially central Alberta from about Red Deer to Edmonton. Showery in B.C. and Washington state, otherwise hot and dry in most of the west this weekend, with a few afternoon storms over higher parts of the inland southwest.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER (Friday) was cloudy with a high of about 20 C.

Have a great weekend and enjoy the cloudscapes, hope the showers don't last too long whatever your plans.

[M.T. Cranium]

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Sunday, 29 July, 2012____________________________________________

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Frequent showers and rather cool, with some brighter intervals this morning in east and south, but eventually most places will have a shower or two, with accumulations of about 5 mms on average. It will be quite cool for late July with winds NW 15-30 mph, and highs about 16 C.

TONIGHT ... Gradually clearing as showers die out, cool ... lows 6-9 C. Winds falling off to calm inland.

MONDAY ... Sunny to start especially in eastern counties, then increasing cloud, some rain by afternoon or evening mainly in west Munster, a bit warmer especially for east coast, with afternoon highs 16-19 C.

TUESDAY ... Some rain at times, heavier west and north, 10-20 mms possible there, foggy over hills in Connacht and Ulster. Lows near 12 C and highs near 17 C. Rather gusty southeast to south winds affecting coastal regions of south and west, later east coast. Some gusts to 35-40 mph possible.

WEDNESDAY ... Heavy showers and a risk of gusty winds developing in Connacht and Ulster, from SW to W at 20-40 mph (and possibly higher gusts in coastal locations). Somewhat better conditions for east and south coasts with a bit more sunshine in the mix there, morning lows 11-13 C and highs about 17 C. Rainfalls likely to average about 10-15 mms, heavier in Connacht.

THURSDAY ... Still rather unsettled but possibly less frequent showers in more of a partly cloudy regime, lows 8-11 C and highs 15-18 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Continuing rather unsettled and perhaps a degree or two below normal in temperatures ... from Friday (3 Aug) to Monday (6 Aug) it seems likely to remain about 17-19 C by day with showery rainfalls, and then a faint prospect of warmer weather returning for a while in the following week to ten days.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY will be rather cloudy in most places although some sunshine at times in the southeast, with frequent showers and some thunder or hail possible in western and central to northern England, parts of Wales and most of Scotland. These showers will not be absent from the southeast but more isolated and some places could remain dry. Highs 19-22 C southeast, trending cooler further west and north, to about 17 C (14 C northern Scotland).

TONIGHT will be cloudy with showers in most regions and lows from 10-13 C in the south, trending to about 7-10 C further north.

OUTLOOK is unchanged ... variable with some showers mostly western and northern districts almost each day and longer dry intervals with some sunshine despite a lot of cloud for the south and east. Highs all week likely to be in the cool to comfortable range of 17-20 C. Wednesday and Thursday look particularly wet for Scotland and some parts of Wales and northern England. Towards the end of the week, some heavy to severe storms could impact the Olympic Games sites in the southeast (realizing that there are a few outside that zone).

North American forecasts

Seasonably warm in the east, a few more thunderstorms in mid-Atlantic states and western Great Lakes regions, highs generally 29-33 C. Showery across western Canada with some severe thunderstorms developing mostly in SK and w MB, spilling over into parts of Montana and North Dakota. Rather widespread "monsoon" storms in the higher parts of the southwest, hot and dry in some valleys and desert zones.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER (Saturday) was sunny with a high near 22 C.

[M.T. Cranium]

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 30 July, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... A bright to sunny start in eastern and some northern counties, also a few isolated showers in the northeast ... cloudy in south and west with intervals of light rain moving very gradually inland in west Munster, amounts generally small except 5-10 mms in parts of Kerry. Highs 16-19 C with highest values likely inland east and north.

TONIGHT ... Becoming overcast with rain becoming somewhat heavier in west, then reaching parts of east and north as light rain or drizzle. Further amounts 5-15 mms heavier in west. Lows 8-12 C mildest in west Munster.

TUESDAY ... Some rain at times, heavier west and north, 10-20 mms possible there, foggy over hills in Connacht and Ulster. Highs near 17 C. Rather gusty southeast to south winds affecting coastal regions of south and west, later east coast. Some gusts to 35-40 mph possible. Otherwise breezy and becoming very humid later in the day.

WEDNESDAY ... Heavy showers and a risk of gusty winds developing in Connacht and Ulster, from SW to W at 20-40 mph (and possibly higher gusts in coastal locations). Somewhat better conditions for east and south coasts with a bit more sunshine in the mix there, morning lows 11-13 C and highs about 17 C. Rainfalls likely to average about 10-15 mms, heavier in Connacht.

THURSDAY ... Still rather unsettled but possibly less frequent showers in more of a partly cloudy regime, winds remaining blustery in parts of the west, but staying south to southwest as the low begins to circle around west of Donegal Bay. Quite variable conditions by afternoon with isolated heavy showers and thunderstorms but also some sunny intervals. lows 8-11 C and highs 15-19 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, seasonable temperatures. Lows 8-11 C and highs 15-19 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Continuing rather unsettled although showers may be somewhat brief and isolated for much of the weekend, and perhaps a degree below normal in temperatures to seasonably warm ... from Saturday (4 Aug) to Monday (6 Aug) it seems likely to remain about 17-20 C by day with showery rainfalls, and then a faint prospect of warmer weather returning for a while in the following week to ten days.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY will bring cloudy skies in most places with brief sunny intervals, but some parts of south central England could do as well as an equal mixture of cloud and sun, with highs near 21 C. Showers will be somewhat isolated and one or two could become heavy, while some places remain dry. Further north there may be longer cloudy intervals and showers could be a bit more prolonged but most places will only see 1-3 mms of rain at most, with highs of about 17-19 C.

TONIGHT will be cloudy with showers in most western regions and lows from 11-14 C in the southwest, trending to about 7-10 C further east and north.

OUTLOOK is for rather cloudy weather but often settled in eastern counties, more frequently showery in the west, temperatures generally in the 17-19 C range by day (20-22 C southeast England). Slight risk of heavy thunderstorms towards end of the week in the southeast. Next weekend is likely to be more cloudy than sunny with isolated showers and temperatures not far from normal, highs 19-23 C.

North American forecasts

Heavy storms will move slowly east through parts of the western and northern Great Lakes, and also parts of the central plains states. There will also be widespread storms over higher parts of the southwest. Parts of eastern Canada (Maritimes) will see periods of rain and rather chilly temperatures due to a northeast surface flow. Further west, most other regions will be seasonably warm to hot, and dry.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER (Sunday) was sunny with a high near 23 C.

[M.T. Cranium]

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 31 July, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Some rain at times, generally spreading north and lasting several hours before tapering off to drizzle or light showers in the south, 10-20 mms possible in most regions but with a later start, 3-7 mms in most of Ulster. Foggy over hills in Connacht and west Ulster. Highs near 17 C in most regions but 14-16 C west coast. Rather gusty southeast to south winds affecting coastal regions of south and west, later east coast. Some gusts to 35-40 mph possible. Otherwise breezy and becoming very humid later in the day.

TONIGHT ... Rain becoming more confined to north and east, 5-8 mms further accumulation, some heavier showers possible in north Donegal (but mostly offshore), foggy or misty across central and southern counties, mild. Lows about 10-12 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Heavy showers and a risk of gusty winds developing in Connacht and Ulster, from SW to W at 20-40 mph (and possibly higher gusts in coastal locations). Also, an interval of heavier showers in Leinster by mid-day with risk of a thunderstorm in the Dublin region. Somewhat better conditions for south and southwest coasts with a bit more sunshine in the mix there, highs about 17-19 C in most regions, warmest around Limerick. Rainfalls likely to average about 10-15 mms, heavier in north Connacht, west Munster and east coast.

THURSDAY ... Still rather unsettled but possibly less frequent showers in more of a partly cloudy regime, winds remaining blustery in parts of the west, but staying south to southwest as the low begins to circle around west of Donegal Bay. Quite variable conditions by afternoon with isolated heavy showers and thunderstorms but also some sunny intervals. lows 8-11 C and highs 15-19 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, seasonable temperatures if not a little below average. Lows 8-11 C and highs 15-19 C.

WEEKEND ... There are two theories of how the weekend might turn out from the available guidance, which could be summarized as poor and mixed. The "poor" option comes about from the low tracking directly across Ireland in its dying stages with considerable cloud, frequent showers and depressed temperatures. The "moderate" option could develop if the low circles around to the south and leaves Ireland in more of a weak easterly flow which could allow for some longer dry intervals and less frequent showers, all of which would allow temperatures to stay a bit milder. The options are probably in the range of 16 to 19 C for maximum temperatures, and 10 to 30 mms rainfall on average, so it's not a vast difference. Splitting the difference, we could say partly to mostly cloudy with occasional showers, highs 17-18 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Continuing rather unsettled into the following week although showers may be somewhat brief and isolated for much of the time, temperatures in the 17-20 C range by day. Models are currently backing away from any return to really warm weather such as was seen briefly last week.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY will be overcast in most regions with outbreaks of light rain, the longest dry spells will be in Yorkshire and the northeast, and much of Scotland where some sunshine may begin the day. Highs will be about 18 C in most regions, a bit cooler in higher parts of Wales with low cloud and hill fog, and perhaps a bit higher in the Edinburgh and Newcastle regions.

TONIGHT will see further misty light rain and fog, lows near 12 C. Rainfalls in total will only be about 5-10 mms in many regions as the heavier falls stay in Ireland until Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY could see heavy showers and thunderstorms especially in the western parts of England and most of Wales, towards late afternoon and evening, with highs 17-18 C. Further east it could be partly cloudy at times between passing showers, and about 20 C. Further north, outbreaks of light rain and for the far north, fog and low cloud, highs 15-17 C.

OUTLOOK is for rather cloudy weather and becoming more settled towards Friday in eastern counties, as it stays more frequently showery in the west, temperatures generally in the 17-19 C range by day (20-22 C southeast England). Slight risk of heavy thunderstorms towards end of the week and weekend in the south. The weekend is likely to be more cloudy than sunny with isolated showers and temperatures not far from normal, highs 19-23 C.

North American forecasts

Severe storms likely in Michigan and Ontario today from a slow-moving frontal wave. Sunny and hot further east and south, except for a separate area of heavy rain moving up the Carolina coast towards southeast Virginia. Also stormy again in parts of western Canada, and across the upper Midwest, as a new disturbance forms in South Dakota-Iowa. More settled and warm near the west coast, continued scattered monsoonal thunderstorms southwest higher elevations. Phoenix has been seeing almost daily "haboobs" or sandstorms from (nearly) dry thunderstorms moving northwest from higher terrain into the lowlands known as the Valley of the Sun (more like the Valley of the Sand at this time of year). Sometimes these storms can create zero visibility on interstate highways in that region from blowing sand.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER (Monday) was cloudy with a bit of sun at times later in the day, and several degrees cooler than the weekend at about 18 C.

[M.T. Cranium]

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 1 August, 2012
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ALERT for isolated heavy rainfalls valid 0700h to 1300h in parts of south Leinster, potential for 25-35 mms rain although most places likely to see about 15 mms, bringing the threat of isolated spot flooding on roads and from smaller streams, in particular mid-Wicklow and south Dublin. An even more isolated risk of heavy rains and severe storms from a trailing secondary front now moving into west Munster and heading northeast across the Midlands later this morning, mid-day. Alert-status rainfalls there will be the exception rather than the rule, possibly one or two brief flare-ups can be expected in Tipps, Laois and region.

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Heavy and showery rainfalls this morning in the southeast, mainly over the Wicklow and Dublin Mountains, 15-25 mms in some places, with risk of thunder later in Dublin and Meath. A second band of moderate showers will drift northeast from Kerry (and is now moving into parts of Galway and Mayo) and this will bring more sporadic showery rains to most of the country over the rest of the day as it continues east and northeast. Amounts of 5-15 mms can be expected from this trough feature. In between the two systems, mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals, isolated showers, and warm in southerly winds of 15-20 mph, highs for most 17-20 C. So, for most of the country a rather variable weather pattern, with the heavier rains mainly confined to southeast and a few other locations.

TONIGHT ... Further showers, although becoming rather light and misty, moderate S to SW breezes around 10-15 mph, some higher gusts near west coast, lows 10-13 C.

THURSDAY ... Still rather unsettled but possibly less frequent showers in more of a partly cloudy regime, winds remaining blustery in parts of the west, but staying south to southwest as the low begins to circle around west of Donegal Bay. Quite variable conditions by afternoon with isolated heavy showers and thunderstorms but also some sunny intervals. lows 8-11 C and highs 15-19 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, seasonable temperatures if not a little below average. Lows 8-11 C and highs 15-19 C.

WEEKEND ... There are still two theories of how the weekend might turn out from the available guidance, which could be summarized as poor and mixed, but I would take the "mixed" option as more likely now. The "poor" option comes about from the low tracking directly across Ireland in its dying stages with considerable cloud, frequent showers and depressed temperatures. The "moderate" option could develop if the low circles around to the south and leaves Ireland in more of a weak easterly flow which could allow for some longer dry intervals and less frequent showers, all of which would allow temperatures to stay a bit milder. The options are probably in the range of 16 to 19 C for maximum temperatures, and 10 to 30 mms rainfall on average, so it's not a vast difference. Splitting the difference and leaning more towards a mixed bag of conditions, we could say partly to mostly cloudy with occasional showers, highs 17-19 C, rainfalls generally declining through the weekend. There may be longer dry spells on Sunday and especially holiday Monday.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The forecast models are into one of those see-saw routines and now the prospect of settled and somewhat warmer weather eventually developing has increased, but I am not too confident that this is a permanent foundation, so would suggest the most likely outcome somewhat unsettled with a few mainly dry days and seasonable temperatures. It could then improve from that if we're fortunate.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY could see heavy showers and thunderstorms especially in the western parts of England and especially in Wales where some torrential downpours (25-40 mms) could lead to flooding mid-day or afternoon, and this rain could spread further north and east towards late afternoon and evening, with highs 17-19 C. Further east towards the North Sea coasts, it could be partly cloudy at times with a dry morning, then passing showers arriving later or towards evening, and highs about 20 C. Further north, outbreaks of light to moderate rain and for the far north, fog and low cloud, highs 15-17 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain tapering to showers and then drizzle, fog or mist, could stay largely dry in a few parts of the south. Lows 10-15 C.

OUTLOOK is for rather cloudy weather and becoming more settled towards Friday in eastern counties, as it stays more frequently showery in the west, temperatures generally in the 17-19 C range by day (20-22 C southeast England). Slight risk of heavy thunderstorms towards end of the week and weekend in the south. The weekend is likely to be more cloudy than sunny with isolated showers and temperatures not far from normal, highs 19-23 C. The longer term is subject to the same uncertainty as Ireland, with some prospect of a warmer, dry spell developing towards 8th-15th August.

North American forecasts

Rain becoming heavier today near the east coast from offshore frontal waves, hot and dry further inland as yesterday's Great Lakes storms move off into the St Lawrence valley and merge with the New England coastal rain. Highs only 20-25 C east coast but 28-32 C further inland, trending to 35-38 into parts of the Midwest and plains states with isolated storms along weak frontal boundaries. Meanwhile, severe storms from Alberta into Saskatchewan and later into Manitoba and northwestern Ontario, some of these already in progress early morning hours, may redevelop mid-day, some risk of a tornado in parts of SK. Trending to warm and dry on the west coast.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER (Tuesday) was sunny and 23 C.

[M.T. Cranium]

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 2 August, 2012
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Astronomy note: Full moon occurred earlier today at 0429h IST.

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Some intervals of sunshine this morning in west, partly to mostly cloudy elsewhere, showers developing but heaviest in south central counties then later these will move north towards Longford and surrounding counties, with the risk of a few isolated heavy thunderstorms. Rainfalls generally 3-7 mms but could reach 20-30 mms in a few of these central districts. Some places on the other hand could remain dry all day. Highs 16-19 C with moderate south winds tending to back to SE later. Gusty winds could develop around intense shower cells but otherwise mainly 10-15 mph.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, a few showers, mild, foggy in places, lows around 10 to 12 C, some rainfalls of 2-4 mms.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, and risk of some heavier thundery showers in the south, later moving north towards central Leinster, Dublin area, some rainfalls of 10-20 mms in these, otherwise 5-10 mms. Highs will range between 16 and 19 C. Winds continuing to back SE to E as the low begins to drift across the south, gradually weakening as it goes.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, showers or a few periods of light rain, some tendency for improvement across northwest and later other parts of the west as the disturbed weather begins to redevelop over Britain with the drifting low. Rainfalls of 10-15 mms possible in southeast, less elsewhere. Lows near 9 C and highs near 16 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers more isolated, lows near 7 C and highs near 17 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers in a few places, but some other places dry with longer intervals of sunshine, rain spreading in by evening from west. Lows near 6 C and highs near 17 C.

OUTLOOK ... Some further showers at times, but a chance of a warmer interval developing later next week.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, any morning sunshine will fade behind thickening higher cloud, and there will be outbreaks of rain by afternoon and evening, generally about 5-10 mms. Highs near 21 C south, 17 C central and 14-16 C northern England, Scotland.

TONIGHT ... Showers, mild, some fog developing, lows 9-12 C.

OUTLOOK is for rather cloudy weather and becoming more settled towards Friday in eastern counties, as it stays more frequently showery in the west, temperatures generally in the 17-19 C range by day (20-22 C southeast England). Slight risk of heavy thunderstorms towards end of Friday and into the first half of the weekend in the south. The rest of the weekend is likely to be more cloudy than sunny with isolated showers and temperatures not far from normal, highs 19-23 C. The longer term is subject to the same uncertainty as Ireland, with some prospect of a warmer, dry spell developing towards 8th-15th August but a risk of heavy rain or thunderstorms in south central and southwest England.

North American forecasts

A near-perfect summer day for the lower Great Lakes and inland northeast, Ohio valley, highs near 30 C. Heavy showers and thunderstorms developing across the central plains states, Midwest, with the remnants of the severe heat and drought holding on in parts of the mid-south, then heavy showers in the southeast and parts of Florida. Hot in the southwest and seasonably warm in far west, while another in a seemingly endless series of Pacific fronts assaults parts of interior B.C. and Alberta (having perhaps the worst summer in ages across these regions, not so bad on the coast where I am). Severe storms today in Alberta will begin to evolve into a complex of very heavy rainfalls for SK-eMT-wND-swMB on Friday.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER (Wednesday) was sunny and 21 C with a cooling sea breeze and afternoon high cloud becoming almost a total overcast by evening. Light southerly winds.

[M.T. Cranium]

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 3 August, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT posted for locally intense showers or thunderstorms developing mid-day in Dublin region and also near Galway. These could be quite localized and any flooding that might result could be hit or miss but would keep a close eye on radar after about 1030h for these developing storms, and forum chat threads will give you additional guidance later on.

TODAY ... Variable cloud, showers, and risk of some heavier thundery showers in the south, later moving north towards central Leinster, Dublin area, some rainfalls of 15-25 mms in these, otherwise 5-10 mms, although another area of locally heavy showers with some thunder could move across Galway mid-day also. By late afternoon these two areas may begin to merge into intervals of moderate rain around east Connacht and north Leinster into south Ulster. Highs will range between 16 and 19 C. Winds continuing to back SE to E 10-20 mph as the low begins to drift across the south, gradually weakening as it goes. Some places in central counties may miss various lines of showers and almost manage to stay dry, so if you keep watching the radar you might find a good spot for an afternoon outing (or a storm chase).

TONIGHT ... A few more heavy showers likely in the south, average rainfalls about 5-10 mms, mild with lows near 10 C.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, showers or a few periods of light rain, some tendency for improvement across northwest and later other parts of the west as the disturbed weather begins to redevelop over Britain with the drifting low. Rainfalls of 10-15 mms possible in southeast where one or two places could have a thundery downpour, lesser amounts elsewhere and quite dry much of the time in some west coast locations. Highs near 16 C with winds tending to back to northeast then north 10-15 mph.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny at times, showers more isolated, lows near 7 C and highs near 17 C in light to moderate NW winds. There might be one or two isolated heavy showers but many places could have a dry day as the areal coverage of any showers will be something like 5-10% of the country.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers in a few places, but some other places dry with longer intervals of sunshine, rain spreading in by evening or midnight from west. Lows near 6 C and highs near 17 C.

TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud east, showers or periods of rain west, somewhat lighter rainfalls than with recent disturbances, 5-10 mms on average, highs around 17 C.

LATER NEXT WEEK ... We remain hopeful that another warm spell could develop and with some sunshine highs might reach 23 C or a bit higher in a few spots. This does not appear likely to become a set pattern as, like a week ago, the warm spell breaks down as the ridge splits and allows the Atlantic to "drive the car" again.

SOMEONE ASKED ABOUT WINTER 2012-13 ... So I will share the answer with all readers ... first of all, guidance and research model suggest another rather warm autumn and yes, it does seem quite plausible that a cold winter could develop, but from my perspective, too early to make a call on it. I don't see any signals of a raging mild southwesterly regime anyway. But as always, winter forecast hints in September and publication in October.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Partly cloudy with some long sunny intervals in the east, more cloud to west with isolated showers developing (Cornwall, Devon, south Wales mostly). Highs near 22-24 C south, 18-21 C central and 16-18 C northern England, Scotland where it may be more cloudy also.

TONIGHT ... Showers moving east, followed by heavier bursts of rain in west some with thunder, mild, some fog developing, lows 10-14 C.

OUTLOOK ... Basically, the slow-moving upper low will take about a day to 36 hours longer to deal with Britain than with Ireland, so each day to about Wednesday can be compared to the previous day's forecast for nearby parts of southeast to northeast Ireland, meaning that most of the weekend will be unsettled with heavy thundery showers at times, highs 18-20 C. While Monday could be pleasant in the west, Tuesday will be the dry day for most of the southeast. The warm spell potential is about the same, developing later in the week and lasting a few days before slowly breaking down again in the south, more rapidly in the north.

North American forecasts

Heavy showers and thunderstorms from SK-wMB south into the Dakotas, merging later with developing storms in KS-NE ... this disturbance could become quite significant for the Great Lakes region over the weekend. The hot, dry regime continues further south from n TX and OK across parts of the central states, and today will be fairly dry in most of the east although one or two showers are possible along a weak warm front ahead of the stronger system in SD-MN. Temperatures in most parts of the east will be seasonably warm, very hot in the south central states, and turning quite chilly in parts of the northwest and in Alberta, eastern B.C. as the developing low pulls down some cooler air from the subarctic (highs 15-17 C with overcast and some rain). This cloud will thin out or disappear near the west coast.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER (Thursday) was rather cloudy at first, then sunny after mid-day with a high of 22 C.

[M.T. Cranium]

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 4 August, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT posted for locally intense showers or thunderstorms developing over parts of the inland east and southeast, most likely in regions between Cork and Dublin although more focussed on the inland southeast in counties such as Laois, Carlow, Kilkenny and nearby portions of surrounding counties. Here, some rather slow-moving downpours with intense thunder and lightning could develop and lead to local spot flooding due to 20-30 mm downpours that may not move away very rapidly due to the current dynamics of the weakening system that is drifting east across southern regions. The cities of Dublin and Cork as well as Waterford and Wexford are more or less on the edge of this risk zone and could be affected although towns further inland are probably more at risk of urban flooding as this kind of activity sometimes builds up on sea breeze boundaries and the kind of uplift that might develop near higher inland hills.

TODAY ... Variable cloud, showers or a few periods of light rain, some tendency for improvement across northwest and later other parts of the west as the disturbed weather begins to redevelop over Britain with the drifting low. Rainfalls of 15-30 mms possible in southeast where one or two places could have a thundery downpour (see alert above), lesser amounts elsewhere and quite dry much of the time in some west coast locations and parts of Ulster. Highs near 16-17 C with winds tending to back to northeast then north 10-15 mph.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy intervals, a few lingering showers mainly south and east, mild with lows 9-12 C. Fog patches in valleys and over hills.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny at times, showers more isolated, lows near 7 C and highs near 17 C in light to moderate NW winds. There might be one or two isolated heavy showers near the east coast and some distance inland, but many places further west and north could have a dry day as the areal coverage of any showers will be something like 5-10% of the country. Sunshine could be as much as 7-10 hours in parts of the west.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers in a few places, but some other places dry with longer intervals of sunshine (8-12 hours possible), patchy light rain spreading in by evening or midnight from west. Lows near 6 C and highs near 17 C.

TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud east, showers or periods of rain southwest spreading further east, somewhat lighter rainfalls than with recent disturbances, 5-10 mms on average, north may stay largely dry, highs around 17 C.

WEDNESDAY to SATURDAY ... We remain hopeful that another warm spell could develop and with some sunshine highs might reach 23 C or a bit higher in a few spots. This does not appear likely to become a set pattern for more than four days as, like a week ago, the warm spell breaks down as the ridge splits and allows the Atlantic to "drive the car" again. It would then become variable with near normal temperatures and occasionally showery frontal passages mid-month (after this warm spell comes and goes).


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Increasing cloud, showers becoming more frequent, some heavy thundery downpours by mid-day (west central) or later (eastern counties) with highs generally 18-21 C throughout Britain, possibly 22-23 C in a few places in the southeast and East Anglia. Rainfalls 10-30 mms possible.

TONIGHT ... Further showers and brief thunder showers, lows 11-14 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud with some heavy or severe thunderstorms possible, trending more to partly cloudy with isolated showers further north, longer intervals of sunshine in parts of Cumbria and western Scotland. Highs generally 18-21 C.

OUTLOOK ... Several more unsettled days Monday to Wednesday, heavier rain in south than elsewhere, cool with highs 17-19 C. Becoming warm or even hot and dry later in the week, highs rising to mid to high 20s and near 30 in the southeast. This warm spell or heat wave may coincide with the last few days of the Olympics then more seasonable weather is expected to return.

North American forecasts

Heavy showers and thunderstorms will develop over Minnesota (MN) and Wisconsin (WI) and spread gradually into Michigan (MI), then this complex will head into south-central Ontario overnight and redevelop there on Sunday.

Hot and humid south of this frontal disturbance, highs 30-33 C. Widespread showers and thunderstorms in the southeast from a weak tropical disturbance east of Florida. Meanwhile, tropical storm Ernesto is racing west across the Caribbean Sea towards the Yucatan and may enter the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. Landfall speculation is rather vague at present time, I would guess perhaps Texas or northern Mexico but all regions are in play. Meanwhile, a heat wave is developing over the west under a swelling upper ridge and highs will be well into the 30s or lower 40s inland. However, it remains rather cool further east in the Canadian prairies and northern plains states in the wake of the developing storms mentioned at the start (in MN/WI). Cloud is prevalent with a few showers, followed by gradual clearing and highs only 15-20 C in this air mass.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER (Friday) was sunny and very warm, borderline hot, at about 27 C. Expecting 33 C on the weekend and Monday which is also a holiday here.

[M.T. Cranium]

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Sunday, 5 August, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for locally intense showers or thunderstorms developing over parts of the inland east and southeast, south central counties, currently developing in a zone extending from Monaghan southwest to Tipps, and possibly spreading mainly to the south from that zone later. Some local rainfalls of 20 mms could create local spot flooding, drive with caution.

TODAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy in most regions, somewhat more sunshine at first in Wexford and parts of north Connacht. Some heavier showers developing, possibly with thunder, in counties between Monaghan-Westmeath and Tipps-Kilkenny, and later more widely although some places should remain dry. Local rainfalls of 20 mms possible, see alert. Highs 15-17 C and moderate N-NW winds 15-25 mph.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers in a few places, but some other places dry with longer intervals of sunshine (6-10 hours possible), patchy light rain spreading in by late afternoon or evening from southwest, spreading overnight across parts of the inland south (amounts 5-10 mms at most). Lows near 6 C and highs near 17 C.

TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud east, showers or periods of rain southwest spreading further east, somewhat lighter rainfalls than with recent disturbances, 5-10 mms on average, north may stay largely dry, highs around 17 C.

WEDNESDAY to SATURDAY ... We are now confident that another warm spell could develop and with some sunshine highs might reach 23-26 C inland, and 20-23 C near east coast; as usual, there could be some low cloud and fog near south coast. The warm spell seems likely to break down around the following weekend with showers moving up from Biscay, some thundery and heavy, then a return to variable conditions in an unsettled westerly flow, with near normal temperatures.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Variable cloud with rain spreading into the southwest and by mid-day evolving into some heavy showers with severe thunderstorms possible across the south and central portions of England, with less severe and widely scattered showers elsewhere, trending more to partly cloudy with isolated showers further north, longer intervals of sunshine in parts of Cumbria and western Scotland. Highs generally 18-21 C. The most likely time for any disruptions of Olympic events in London appears to be late afternoon and evening, with occasional thunderstorms possible.

OUTLOOK ... Several more unsettled days Monday to Wednesday, heavier rain in south than elsewhere, cool with highs 17-19 C. Becoming warm or even hot and dry later in the week, highs rising to mid to high 20s and near 30 in the southeast. This warm spell or heat wave may coincide with the last few days of the Olympics then more seasonable weather is expected to return.

North American forecasts

Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue in parts of the lower Great Lakes region and Ohio valley, with severe heat further south, dry in the south-central plains states, and humid near the east coast. The heaviest storms may be in Indiana, Ohio, nw PA, wNY and south-central Ontario. A much weaker outbreak of locally heavy storms will drift east from Alberta through central Saskatchewan as slightly cooler air drops south into the heat wave now well-established over the western regions. Highs of 35-40 C will be recorded in western valleys and 28-32 C near the coast under cloudless skies, humidity levels are moderate to low with this heat.

Meanwhile, tropical storm Ernesto is racing west across the Caribbean Sea past Jamaica later today, heading towards the northern Yucatan and it may enter the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. Landfall speculation continues rather vague at present time, I would guess perhaps Texas or northern Mexico but all regions are in play. Another tropical storm, Florence, will take a more northerly track past the Virgin Islands and is currently expected to weaken rather than continuing further west from there.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER (Saturday) was sunny and hot, with a high near 31 and Sunday is expected to be similar with 34 C possible.

[M.T. Cranium]

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 6 August, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... The day will start out rather cloudy and could improve somewhat in the easterm, central and northern counties, where rainfalls should be rather isolated. Highs will be 16-19 C. Across the south, more unsettled with outbreaks of drizzle or light rain, 3-5 mms rain possible, highs 15-17 C.

TONIGHT ... Overcast, drizzle or light rain in some parts of south and west, lows around 10 C.

TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud east, showers or periods of rain southwest spreading further east, somewhat lighter rainfalls than with recent disturbances, 5-10 mms on average, north may stay largely dry, highs around 17 C. Some chance of a thunderstorm south-central towards inland southeast by afternoon.

WEDNESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, warm and increasingly humid, some scattered outbreaks of light rain or drizzle followed by hazy sunshine in a few parts of the south, lows 12-15 C and highs 18-22 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals, very warm. Coastal fog or low cloud, but most places should be bright and sunny with highs possibly reaching 25 C or thereabouts, 18-22 C closer to south and east coasts in weak sea breezes.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... The warm spell will break down from the south and there could be heavy showers or even thunderstorms with this on Saturday and more likely on Sunday as the full impact of cooler air is felt. Highs will be about 21 C on Saturday and 17 C on Sunday. Following that, the pattern goes back to the more familiar summer-2012 pattern of slow-moving frontal systems from the west.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks, showers at times for most regions, but only one or two heavier isolated thundershowers. Highs about 21 in the south to 17 C Scotland and Wales, 19 C northern England.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, misty in places, a few patches of light rain or drizzle, lows around 11 C.

TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY ... Warming up gradually with a lot of cloud, outbreaks of rain that could become thundery in Wales and north-central England, as temperatures rise to 23-26 C in the south, 18-22 C further north.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY ... Hot in most of the south, very warm as far north as parts of Scotland, highs 27-32 C inland, 22-25 C coastal. Showers will develop in Scotland and Wales by about Saturday afternoon/evening and will spread further east.

OUTLOOK ... Turning cooler in stages over the weekend, then back to a rather bland showery pattern again.

North American forecasts

Showers in parts of the coastal northeast, fair and less humid (27 C) in the Great Lakes and inland northeast. Hot and dry in parts of the south central states, isolated storms central plains. Hot and dry across most of the west well north into western Canada, isolated thunderstorms over the central prairies, but highs 33-39 C across much of the region, trending to 45 C in the desert southwest.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER (Sunday) was sunny and hot, with a high near 32 and Monday is expected to be partly cloudy and about 28 C as a weak push of marine air begins to mix with this hot, dry air mass. As a result, there could be an isolated thunderstorm in view over the nearby mountains although I expect it will remain dry here.

[M.T. Cranium]

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 7 August, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Increasing cloud east, showers or periods of rain southwest spreading further east across Munster and south Leinster, 5-15 mms on average, most of the north may stay largely dry, with isolated light showers or drizzle, and highs around 17 C. Some chance of a thunderstorm south-central towards inland southeast by mid-day or early afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, mild, humid, some further rain likely at times in the south spreading into central counties towards morning, lows 11-14 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, warm and increasingly humid, some scattered outbreaks of light rain or drizzle followed by hazy sunshine in a few parts of the south, and highs 18-22 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals, very warm. Coastal fog or low cloud, but most places should be bright and sunny with highs possibly reaching 25 C or thereabouts, 18-22 C closer to south and east coasts in weak sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT could have some clear intervals for the folks who want to see the Perseids meteor shower. Cloud will be increasing slowly from the south except for thick low cloud near the south coast. Lows through the warm spell should remain above 10 C although it could briefly drop to 7-9 C just before dawn.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... The warm spell will break down from the south and there could be heavy showers or even thunderstorms with this on Saturday and more likely on Sunday as the full impact of cooler air is felt. Highs will be about 21 C on Saturday (warmer north as the Atlantic air spreads in from the south, so highs could be 23 C in south Donegal or north Connacht and 15 C in Kerry) and 14-17 C on Sunday. Following that, the pattern goes back to the more familiar summer-2012 pattern of slow-moving frontal systems from the west.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Warming up gradually with a lot of cloud, outbreaks of rain that could become thundery in Wales and north-central England, as temperatures rise to 22-24 C in the south, 18-22 C further north. Further rain TONIGHT with lows around 15 C then hazy sunshine in places tomorrow, still some rain about in Wales and north-central England, highs to 25 C south and 19-22 C central, 17-19 C Scotland.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY ... Hot in most of the south, very warm as far north as parts of Scotland, highs 27-32 C inland, 22-25 C coastal. Showers will develop in Scotland and Wales by about Saturday afternoon/evening and will spread further east.

OUTLOOK ... Turning cooler in stages over the weekend, then back to a rather bland showery pattern again.

North American forecasts

Western heat will be somewhat modified near the coast by a weak push of cooler marine air but a heat wave will continue inland especially in the Pacific northwest states, and also the desert southwest will remain very hot. This heat extends into the south central plains states with more seasonable warmth further north as weak fronts separate the heat from more average temperatures. This weak front becomes more active in the Great Lakes region where one or two heavy storms could develop later. The southeast remains hot and humid with widespread showers and a few storms.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER (Monday) was partly cloudy in the morning with temperatures about 25 C by mid-day, then a weak front developed with a lot of mid-level cloud, sprinkles of rain (heavier over the north shore mountains) followed by clearing and somewhat fresher by evening at 20 C. This week is likely to stay warmer than average and mostly dry with a mix of cloud and sun, highs in the 23-26 C range.

[M.T. Cranium]

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 8 August, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, warm and increasingly humid, some scattered outbreaks of light rain or drizzle followed by hazy sunshine in a few parts of the south, and highs 18-22 C. Further rainfalls about 3-5 mms in a few places but mainly trace to 2 mm amounts.

TONIGHT ... Very humid and misty to foggy, some clear intervals especially well inland and over higher terrain. Lows 11-14 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals, very warm. Coastal fog or low cloud, but most places should be bright and sunny with highs possibly reaching 25 C or thereabouts, 18-22 C closer to south and east coasts in weak sea breezes. Potential for 27-29 C in west if it remains sunny all day.

FRIDAY NIGHT could have some clear intervals for the folks who want to see the Perseids meteor shower. Cloud will be increasing slowly from the south except for thick low cloud near the south coast. Lows through the warm spell should remain above 10 C although it could briefly drop to 7-9 C just before dawn.

SATURDAY ... Somewhat cooler especially in south and southwest, outbreaks of light rain in west Munster, slight risk of thunderstorms developing west-central to southeast along a slowly advancing front. Highs 22-25 C in north, 18-22 C central, 15-17 C south and southwest.

SATURDAY NIGHT may also have some clear intervals in eastern and northern counties as the push of cooler air may become quite weak, the front could begin to dissipate before redeveloping on Sunday. In general, I would say the chances of clear skies are about 60% on Friday night and 40% on Saturday night in the region near Dublin where observers might be most interested in viewing the Perseids.

SUNDAY ... Becoming mostly cloudy, extensive showers or thunderstorms possible, although there may be some places with warm sunshine also. Winds having backed into the southeast may now begin to return to southerly, highs around 20 C in some places, 15-17 C closer to south and west coasts.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Showery or periods of rain developing early next week as temperatures sink back into the high teens (16-18 C). Eventually a more variable showery regime will return.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Periods of rain across the south this morning, foggy, turning warmer with some improvement especially south central and southwest counties, as the rain edges further north. Highs 21-24 C south, 18-21 C central. Variable cloud, highs 16-18 C in northern England and Scotland.

TONIGHT ... Warm and humid in the south, one or two brief showers, lows 14 to 17 C. Fog developing especially near southwest coasts. Cloudy, misty further north, lows 13-15 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals in most regions, very warm to hot, although much cooler close to the North Sea coasts. Highs generally 27-31 C but could be held to 15-18 C close to the North Sea, trending to 23-26 C in northern Scotland inland, 14-16 C coastal.

OUTLOOK ... Staying hot over the weekend in southeast England, showery further west, turning a bit cooler.


North American forecasts

Showers and thunderstorms developing across large parts of western Canada and also western Great Lakes, very warm and humid south of these frontal zones, with further heavy showers in the southeast and Gulf coast regions, hot and dry around OK-AR-TN. Ernesto briefly became a hurricane and hit the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico about 0300h (UTC) and will re-emerge late today into the Gulf of Mexico's southern Bay of Campeche making for a second landfall near Veracruz Mexico later this week.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER (Tuesday) ... We actually had some weather to report, frequent rather intense thunderstorms developed this evening after a bland, partly cloudy day with a high of 24 C. These storms formed along a weak warm front that stalled through the region and became a sea-breeze convergence boundary. Not much wind or hail reported, but frequent intense lightning and some downpours although it seems like maybe 15 mms at most. It is unusual to see forked lightning in this region, quite often we will go the whole year with just a couple of brief thundershowers embedded in fronts, and this is perhaps the third time in 15 years that I've recorded a proper thunderstorm here. Could see more of this tomorrow as nothing much is moving on the larger scale.

[M.T. Cranium]

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 9 August, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Extensive low cloud or fog, mist this morning, likely to give way to hazy sunshine reasonably early in all but east-coast and south-coast locations where some places may remain "socked in" by fog and drizzle, but in transitional zones some sunshine will break through at times. Temperatures will reach 23-25 C well inland and towards the west coast (where sea breezes could still develop locally as gradient wind is weak). Transitional zones, including much of Dublin and Meath, likely to reach about 20-21 C while some coastal zones around the southeast and south will be held to about 15-18 C. Light winds, and very slight risk of a localized shower near sea breeze boundaries.

TONIGHT ... Clear skies may give way to low cloud and mist again, mild with lows about 13-16 C for most places, could fall to 10 C in some valleys.

FRIDAY ... Broadly similar regional pattern to today although perhaps a stronger sun and even higher maximum temperatures in some cases, highs may reach 25-28 C west-central. The east coast sea breeze may be less of a factor as winds become slightly more southerly there. South coast likely to remain "socked in" with fog and drizzle. Highs in that zone about 15-17 C.

FRIDAY NIGHT ... Some clear intervals, especially over higher terrain, low cloud and drizzle may spread inland across south with light rain in parts of Kerry, Cork, Waterford (trace to 2 mms). Lows about 12 C on average.

SATURDAY ... Somewhat cooler especially in south and southwest, outbreaks of light rain in west Munster, slight risk of thunderstorms developing west-central to southeast along a slowly advancing front. Continued rather warm in Ulster, east Connacht and north Leinster, with highs 22-25 C in north, 18-22 C central, but only 15-17 C south and southwest.

SATURDAY NIGHT may also have some clear intervals in eastern and northern counties as the push of cooler air may become quite weak, the front could begin to dissipate before redeveloping on Sunday. In general, I would say the chances of clear skies are about 60% on Friday night and 40% on Saturday night in the region near Dublin where observers might be most interested in viewing the Perseids.

SUNDAY ... Becoming mostly cloudy, extensive showers or thunderstorms possible, although there may be some places with warm sunshine also. Winds having backed into the southeast may now begin to return to southerly, highs around 20 C in some places, 15-17 C closer to south and west coasts.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Showery or periods of rain developing early next week as temperatures sink back into the high teens (16-18 C). Eventually a more variable showery regime will return. The longer term looks relatively warm again, and it's possible that all periods will turn out a bit warmer as the push of cool Atlantic air may be rather weak this time. However, there also remains some chance of a full return to the drab conditions of mid-July.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Hazy sunshine developing, although mostly cloudy for at least the morning in some western counties. Low cloud and fog may drift inland from North Sea, but many places will clear to warm sunshine and highs 24-27 C. Under more persistent cloud, 20-23 C and near cooler coastal sea-breeze areas about 17-20 C.

TONIGHT ... Hazy, becoming misty or foggy and close, lows 14-17 C. This will trend to cooler, clear conditions in parts of the inland north with lows 8-11 C in some valleys. Dense fog could develop especially close to east coast.

FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals in most regions, very warm to hot, although much cooler close to the North Sea coasts. Highs generally 27-31 C but could be held to 15-18 C close to the North Sea, trending to 23-26 C in northern Scotland inland, 14-16 C coastal.

OUTLOOK ... Staying hot over the weekend in southeast England, showery further west with some heavy thunderstorms developing by Sunday in areas like Bristol and Bournemouth, Salisbury plain, Thames valley; turning a bit cooler especially west of London to Nottingham, but much of next week could stay a little warmer than average with highs 22-24 C.


North American forecasts

Heavy thunderstorms in parts of western Canada, very warm and humid. Warm and dry further south across most of the western half of the U.S. and southern parts of western Canada. Heavy rain developing in the central Great Lakes region, with a two-day total of 50-100 mms perhaps reviving hopes for a decent outcome to the growing season in some drought-affected regions although hopes have already faded further south where it remains hot and dry. Extensive showers and periods of rain in the southeast. Ernesto has crossed the Yucatan and is rolling west along the Gulf coast of Mexico towards a final landfall (if it ever gets back out to sea) near Veracruz.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER (Wednesday) was cloudy with afternoon sunny breaks, rather dark skies at times but no showers today, highs near 23 C. Further inland there was an outbreak of heavy thunderstorms from remnants of what we saw on Tuesday.

Enjoy the warm spell, hope it works out at least partially close to the east coast too.