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28-07-2012, 10:21   #1
aidankkk
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Long Shot Saturday

Ascot 2:55


Fitz Flyer has had a couple of decent runs this year. He was 5th on his seasonal debut at Doncaster and latest an eye-catching 10th in the Epson Dash when getting far from a perfect passage and being noticeably eased once his chance was gone. That last performance put him on my radar for a decent performance in similar conditions at possibly a decent price. He is down another 3lbs for that Dash performance and that has to put him in with a decent shout here. He has in the past been rated at over 100 and his current mark of 90 looks exploitable. He is 65 on Betfair and that certainly looks value.


1 Point win 1 Point Place Betfair 65/9.6

York 2:35

Able Master is one I’ve been following this year with a few points profit and I think the fact the K Fallon is on board is a significant factor today. He is a horse with plenty of ability who just doesn’t bother to show it in a lot of his races. Hopefully Fallon can galvanise him early in the race as he is more or less certain to finish the race well. 14/1 with Ladbrokes looks bit of value with him being bottom of the weights.


1 Point win 14/1 Ladbrokes / Coral

Newmarket 2:45

Demolition looks to have everything in his favour here. He looks to be coming back to form a bit judging by his recent runs. 10 Furlong’s is his best trip and good ground looks a big positive when looking back on his career. Looking at the rest of the field nothing else really stands out and the 12/1 available looks great value.

2 Points win 12/1 Coral Betfred

York 4:50

Deauville Flyer again is one that looks to have conditions in his favour today. He has a very decent course record and most of his good form is on fast ground over 16 furlongs. This is his first run over that trip this year and it is significant when combined with his preference for york. This looks a tight enough race without any standouts and the selection looks to be easily the best value at the 18/1 on Paddy Power and a few others.


1 Point win 18/1 Paddy Power/Blue Square/Will Hill



3:05 Newcastle


Al Muheer is another I’ve been following for a while; he ran a very decent race last week at Ascot in a much better race than this. He came from the back to finish well but could never really get near the leaders. He looks to be in decent form at the moment and it’s no surprise to see him out again quickly. This class 3 handicap is probably more his level at the moment and with the 5lbs claimer on he has a very decent mark here. 10.5 on Betfair looks a bit of value.


1 Point win 10.5 Betfair

York 3:45


Last Bid will be up against it somewhat as a 3yo here, but he has an exceptional course record and has really only had poor runs when on softer ground. He could easily improve significantly back at york on fast ground. He had a very good 2nd in Listed race as a 2yo and again was second here in a handicap earlier this year, when looking like the step up to 6 furlongs would suit him. I’m having trouble finding any value in this race and a small bet at a big price should be worthwhile.

½ point win 28/1 Paddy Power

Last edited by aidankkk; 28-07-2012 at 12:05.
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28-07-2012, 10:24   #2
mike65
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He's back!
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28-07-2012, 13:45   #3
rossom
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2.05 York Kunooz 22/1
2.35 York Greensward 14/1
2.55 Ascot Bajan Tryst 28/1 & Ajjaadd 33/1
3.35 Newcastle Come Here Yew 9/1
3.45 York Chunky Diamond 25/1

All of these are small stakes. I was going to refrain from having a bet on one of my favourite horses 4.50 York Rosairlie as she'd definitely prefer a bit of cut in the ground. However, 18/1 for a horse whose definitely progressive and is in great form is much too big.
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28-07-2012, 15:43   #4
rossom
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Finally a ****ing winner with Come Here Yew. Shocked they tried to make all with stamina unassured but cracking performance!
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