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29-06-2012, 11:55   #16
_Kaiser_
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Its a given, otherwise its time to leave the EU and abandon (never mind write down or default) our external debts. Not applying the same rules to all member states would make a lie out of every founding principle of the EU.
Well given that we're in "uncharted territory" where the rules are being made up as we go, I wouldn't be surprised.
If it IS a done deal, why all the "hoping" it'll be good for us too.

I fear that, as has been the case all along, the EU will do whatever suits the big players and if it happens to benefit the rest then goody for them - if not.. "meh!"

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More likely less bad, as we won't have to cover 15 years of repaying this part of the debt & associated interest. Still have to get to a situation where money in covers money out.
Agree, we need to balance our books and preferably start putting a bit aside for the rainy day (which being Ireland we inevitably get a lot of). I can't see the government giving anything back though even if things DO improve - eg: I can see the USC continuing long past any "need" for it, albeit in a different name

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Yep
Wonderful. Which means that not only average Joe's diesel bill will go up but everything else with it. How is this a good thing again? (rhetorical)

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I don't see any connection to the Croke Park deal.
Maybe not directly, but I can see this shiny new bauble being waved around enough so that the reforms needed are allowed to slide and then quietly be buried and before we know it we're back where we started (note: former PS worker myself so it's not that I'm having a go. There is a lot of wastage that should be addressed and that I fear if things 'get better' will never be)
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29-06-2012, 11:55   #17
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The part of this that could really drag Europe out of recession is the effect of devaluing the currency.
Why do you think this deal will devalue the currency? There's no mention of any QE (money printing) or debt write offs here so what will cause the value of the Euro to drop?
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29-06-2012, 11:55   #18
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Why will the cost of fuel shoot up? It's only after coming down! And I just bought a 2 L petrol Lexus
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29-06-2012, 12:01   #19
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I fear that, as has been the case all along, the EU will do whatever suits the big players and if it happens to benefit the rest then goody for them - if not.. "meh!"
The EU will do what's good for the EU, which necessarily biases EU decision-making towards what's good for the larger EU members.

Why do people keep hinting at some sort of conspiracy? It's common sense.
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Wonderful. Which means that not only average Joe's diesel bill will go up but everything else with it. How is this a good thing again? (rhetorical)
Why is the cost of everything going up (rhetorical)?
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29-06-2012, 12:01   #20
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Why will the cost of fuel shoot up? It's only after coming down! And I just bought a 2 L petrol Lexus
Heard that, that's the way markets think - oh deal - more money - more demand - lets put up prices!
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29-06-2012, 12:02   #21
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Why do you think this deal will devalue the currency? There's no mention of any QE (money printing) or debt write offs here so what will cause the value of the Euro to drop?
Maybe I misunderstood, is the bailout money not coming from the ECB?
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29-06-2012, 12:05   #22
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The EU will do what's good for the EU, which necessarily biases EU decision-making towards what's good for the larger EU members.

Why do people keep hinting at some sort of conspiracy? It's common sense.
Not a conspiracy. Merely a massive inequality and (in my opinion) the reason why this whole concept will never work - in its current form - with such vastly differing circumstances (for want of a better term - I mean in terms of domestic economy, resources, industry, even social attitudes to politics and economic responsibility) between the different member states.

It was this approach that got us into the mess we're now trying to claw ourselves out of. How is continuing it going to help?
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29-06-2012, 12:07   #23
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Officially more expensive now for Spain to borrow money on the markets than for Ireland. That's the first time Spain's borrowing costs on it's benchmark bond have exceeded those of Ireland in this crisis. The market clearly likes this wrt Ireland. But how long will the rally last?
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29-06-2012, 12:07   #24
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But what kind of difference does it make if the banks have been taken over by the state? The funds will not be owed by the state itself, but by the banks belonging to the state... how is that beneficial? Apart from maybe reshuffling repayments, the money will still be owed. Unless the banks are sold off which is not likely in their sorry state and is it even possible for the former Anglo?
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29-06-2012, 12:10   #25
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But what kind of difference does it make if the banks have been taken over by the state? The funds will not be owed by the state itself, but by the banks belonging to the state... how is that beneficial? Apart from maybe reshuffling repayments, the money will still be owed. Unless the banks are sold off which is not likely in their sorry state and is it even possible for the former Anglo?
Was also wondering that actually.

Wouldn't lenders see the banks as massive liabilities anyway, so we'll still owe the same amount, it'll just be via the banks?
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29-06-2012, 12:11   #26
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Not a conspiracy. Merely a massive inequality and (in my opinion) the reason why this whole concept will never work...
The last number of decades have brought unprecedented peace and prosperity to Europe, but you think the EU isn't working?

That's an interesting perspective.
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It was this approach that got us into the mess...
There was me thinking it was gross incompetence on the part of successive Irish governments.
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29-06-2012, 12:22   #27
_Kaiser_
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The last number of decades have brought unprecedented peace and prosperity to Europe, but you think the EU isn't working?

That's an interesting perspective. There was me thinking it was gross incompetence on the part of successive Irish governments.
Well maybe I'm looking at it a bit more selfishly in terms of what has it done for Ireland. After all if Germany, France, Spain etc use the EU as means to further their own national agenda, why not us?

Sure we got a lot of investment and we've given a lot back too (fishing rights and so on) and we got a few - as it turns out - pretty poorly built motorways with tolls on them, but really the big benefit to Ireland was "cheap" money/credit.

Yes of course our own shower of parochial gombeens jumped on this for all it was worth and we (and our children) will be dealing with the legacy of those decisions for decades... but let's not forget that it takes two to tango. Where did this money come from? We didn't just fire up the printing presses after all.

My point is that as long as individual members continue to put national - or even constituency - interests ahead of what's good for the EU as a whole (not just the "chosen few") then we will continue to have a situation where counties such as ourselves and Greece etc will be at the "mercy" of whatever fallout comes out of those decisions.

EDIT: I also think that BECAUSE each member state is so different industrially, politically and socially that we may NEVER get to a situation where we see ourselves as EU citizens first, Irish/German/whatever next which in my opinion is exactly what's needed if we ever are to make this work.

Personally, I think we should have never joined the Euro as it's caused us more problems than it solved. We should have instead have remained as a trading partner but retained control of our own affairs as it's surely been proven that the "one size fits all" approach hasn't worked - neither in the "good times" nor the bad

Last edited by _Kaiser_; 29-06-2012 at 12:26.
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29-06-2012, 12:32   #28
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Why do you think this deal will devalue the currency? There's no mention of any QE (money printing) or debt write offs here so what will cause the value of the Euro to drop?
Maybe I misunderstood, is the bailout money not coming from the ECB?
No - the bailout money comes from the ESM. The ECB doesn't provide bailout money for sovereigns, only loans for banks.

cordially,
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29-06-2012, 13:06   #29
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No - the bailout money comes from the ESM. The ECB doesn't provide bailout money for sovereigns, only loans for banks.
Isn't that what this is, lending money to banks rather than have the national governments do it?
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29-06-2012, 13:31   #30
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Surely the question to be asked is that if moving bank debt from the sovereign to the banks will result in a lower budget deficit and mean that we don't need to cut 3 billion in the coming budget to comply with the fiscal treaty.

As the state basically owns the banks moving the debt from one to the other is only significant to the extent that it affects the way statistics are calculated.
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